The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Trump Targets Thomas Massey, Oil Explodes, Iran War Costs Revealed

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 02:14:15 +0000

Oil prices are exploding past $93 a barrel as Trump's unconditional surrender demand sends shockwaves through markets—but here's the real inflation culprit nobody's talking about, and why the Fed's rate cuts are about to make everything worse.

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Peter Schiff analyzes the massive oil price surge following Trump's Iran war, with crude jumping from $90 to over $119 per barrel before pulling back slightly as countries coordinate strategic petroleum reserve releases. Schiff argues that while rising oil prices don't directly cause inflation, the government's monetary and fiscal response to fund the war and rebuild Iran will trigger massive money printing and borrowing, creating real inflation across all goods. He criticizes Trump's economic lies, including false claims about $18 trillion in foreign investment and job creation numbers that show only 181,000 jobs created in 2025 versus 2.2 million under Biden's final year.

Schiff expresses outrage over Trump's campaign against Congressman Thomas Massey in Kentucky, calling Massey "the best congressman we have" and the only Republican who truly stands for constitutional principles, limited government, and fiscal responsibility. He explains that Massey voted against Trump's "big beautiful" tax bill because it increased spending without corresponding cuts, making it a disguised tax hike rather than genuine tax relief. Schiff sees Trump's attack on Massey as proof that Trump opposes real conservative principles, preferring rubber-stamp politicians over principled representatives who honor their constitutional oath.

Chapters:

00:00:00 Show Cold Open

00:00:55 War and Oil Shock

00:09:45 Inflation and Fed Blame

00:16:20 Unconditional Surrender Walkback

00:21:57 Dollar Power and Gold Outlook

00:29:31 Mining Stocks Selloff

00:31:14 Oil Spike and Profits

00:32:24 How to Buy Exposure

00:33:41 CPI and Inflation Reality

00:37:27 Massey Trump and Media

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Gold Fell on War News. Here’s Why That’s Bullish

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 22:56:48 +0000

Peter discusses the Iran war, the market reaction in gold and silver, the plunge in mining stocks, the surge in oil, Bitcoin’s dead-cat bounce, weak jobs data, rising inflation risks, the coming recession, de-dollarization, and why he believes this selloff is an opportunity to buy, not a reason to panic.

Peter Schiff breaks down why gold and silver sold off during the first week of the Iran war — and why he believes the market is getting it wrong. While many investors expected war to send precious metals sharply higher, gold finished the week down and mining stocks were hit even harder. Peter explains why this looks like a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact reaction, not the end of the bull market.

He argues that the real consequences of war have not yet been fully priced in: higher oil, bigger deficits, more money printing, stickier inflation, a weaker economy, and a weaker dollar over time. Peter also explains why he believes the political fallout could be severe, why Republicans may pay a heavy price in the midterms, and why the long-term winners remain gold, silver, mining stocks, and foreign markets positioned for de-dollarization.

Chapters:

00:00 War Context And Setup

02:08 Weekly Metals Selloff

04:14 Buy Rumor Sell Fact

06:52 Oil Spike And Optimism

09:38 Energy Reality Check

11:37 War Escalation And Politics

15:34 Stocks Dollar Bitcoin Moves

17:52 Deficits Inflation And Gold

24:53 Weak Economy And Jobs Shock

33:07 Midterms Outlook And Wrap

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The War That Breaks the Dollar

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 04:08:27 +0000

Trump just launched an unconstitutional war with Iran without Congressional approval—and Peter breaks down the real reasons behind it, from economic distraction to the military-industrial complex profits, plus why this could trigger massive inflation and destroy your purchasing power.

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Peter Schiff strongly condemns Trump's declaration of war against Iran as unconstitutional, arguing that only Congress has the power to declare war under Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution. Schiff believes Trump violated his oath of office and campaign promises to end wars, not start them. He suspects the real catalyst was Israel informing Trump of their planned attack on Iran, forcing America's hand to join preemptively rather than wait for Iranian retaliation. Schiff questions Trump's claim that he had intelligence suggesting Iran would attack first, calling it implausible and likely fabricated to justify the unconstitutional military action.

Despite opposing the war on constitutional and strategic grounds, Schiff sees it as bullish for gold and silver due to its inflationary impact, as wars are typically funded through money printing rather than tax increases. He views recent pullbacks in precious metals and mining stocks as buying opportunities, noting that gold held above $5,000 despite heavy selling. Schiff warns that this war will worsen an already deteriorating economy through higher oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and increased government spending, while potentially serving as a convenient distraction from Trump's failing economic agenda and recent controversies like the Epstein files.

Chapters:

00:55 War With Iran Begins

03:41 Constitutional War Powers

08:48 War Powers Act Explained

12:00 From Strike To Regime Change

14:00 No Surprise Argument

15:57 Regime Change Risks

21:03 Iraq WMD Lies

23:08 Israel Rubio Timeline

25:45 Trump Preemptive Claim

29:07 Demand The Intelligence

29:25 War Justification Doubts

31:02 Broken Promises Fallout

32:32 Regime Change Quagmire

33:30 Distraction and Scapegoats

35:51 Wag the Dog Headlines

37:31 Rally Round the Flag

40:23 War Hits Economy and Oil

43:22 Markets Shrug Then React

47:36 Gold Selloff Explained

49:28 Wars Paid by Inflation

53:19 Buy the Dip Strategy

55:31 Wrap Up and Next Update

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#Finance #GeopoliticalCrisis #GoldInvesting

Spin Of The Union

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 02:44:42 +0000

Trump claims we have the hottest economy in the world and the greatest turnaround in history, but the numbers tell a completely different story—GDP growth actually slowed under his watch, the stock market is the worst performer globally, and he's ignoring the real crisis ahead: a sovereign debt catastrophe that will make 2008 look like a warm-up act.

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Peter Schiff delivers a scathing critique of Trump's State of the Union address, systematically debunking what he calls numerous economic lies and misrepresentations. Schiff argues that Trump's claims about achieving the "hottest economy in the world" and a "historic economic turnaround" are completely false, pointing out that GDP growth actually slowed from 2.8% under Biden's final year to 2.4% in Trump's first year. He criticizes Trump's housing policy of keeping prices artificially high while suppressing mortgage rates, calling it the same failed approach that led to the 2008 financial crisis, and disputes claims about record-breaking tax cuts, inflation solutions, and stock market performance.

Beyond exposing what he sees as outright fabrications, Schiff condemns Trump's economic policies as fundamentally socialist, including the ban on Wall Street buying single-family homes, government intervention in power plant construction, and various spending programs disguised as tax cuts. He warns that these policies will accelerate inflation and fiscal crisis, predicting that the resulting economic collapse will be blamed on Republicans and capitalism, paving the way for Democratic victories and more socialist policies. Schiff urges listeners to protect themselves by investing in gold, silver, and foreign stocks, noting that gold mining stocks are hitting new highs ahead of the metals themselves, which he sees as a bullish leading indicator.

Chapters:

00:00 Show Intro Montage

00:55 State of the Union Setup

03:36 Housing Prices and Rates

10:24 Stock Market Bragging

15:54 Economy Claims and Inflation

31:10 Gas and Economic Bragging

32:48 Tariffs Supreme Court and Trade Reality

35:56 Taxes Entitlements and Price Claims

39:26 Healthcare Drugs and Anti Socialism Rants

53:05 Fiscal Cliff and Gold Strategy

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Gold Just Issued a Warning the Fed Can’t Ignore

Sat, 21 Feb 2026 01:16:08 +0000

Gold just broke above $5,100 — and almost no one is talking about it.

While politicians argue over tariffs, the real story is accelerating stagflation. GDP growth collapsed from 4.4% to 1.4%. Core PCE inflation is rising again. The Fed is openly debating rate cuts while inflation runs 50% above target.

This is not a soft landing.

Deficits are exploding. Tariff revenue is disappearing. The national debt is surging. The bond market is weakening. And the Federal Reserve is trapped between a weakening economy and rising inflation.

That trap has only one historical resolution: monetary expansion.

Gold is moving because the market understands what policymakers won’t admit. The dollar’s purchasing power is deteriorating. Sovereign debt risk is rising. Global capital is repositioning.

This is not about daily volatility. It’s about systemic imbalance.

When growth weakens and inflation accelerates at the same time, the outcome isn’t recovery — it’s currency stress.

Gold is signaling the next phase.

Gold Back Above $5,000, Oil Breakout, Dollar Trouble Ahead

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 03:10:15 +0000

With national debt up $2.6 trillion in one year and trade deficits exploding despite tariffs, the dollar faces collapse while oil and gold signal inflation's return.

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Peter Schiff analyzes mounting evidence that the U.S. dollar is heading for a major decline, driven by exploding deficits and failed trade policies. With the national debt surging $2.6 trillion in just over a year under Trump, and trade deficits widening despite tariffs, Schiff argues that the same deficit spending Republicans blamed for Biden's inflation is now accelerating under the current administration. Oil prices have surged 21% in two months, hitting six-month highs above $66, while gold holds support above $5,000 as central banks continue dumping dollars. The December trade deficit data reveals Trump's tariffs are backfiring spectacularly - imports rising while exports fall, proving Americans pay 90% of tariff costs according to New York Fed studies. Housing markets show severe stress with pending home sales hitting record lows, signaling price corrections ahead. Schiff credits Trump for reducing FDA drug approval requirements from two studies to one, but argues this modest deregulation doesn't address the fundamental problem of government interference in healthcare markets that didn't exist before 1962.

Chapters:

01:33 Gold & Silver Snapshot: Buy the Dip Below $5,000

02:14 Oil Breakout: Why Gas Prices Are Headed Higher

05:42 Dollar Weakness #1: Exploding Deficits and the Debt Rollover Bomb

09:52 Tariffs, Taxes, and the Myth of 1880s Prosperity

15:54 DOGE, Elon Musk, and Why Government Can’t Be Efficient

20:14 World Ditches the Dollar: Central Banks Buy Gold

21:32 Trade Deficit Reality Check: December Numbers Blow Out

27:28 Tariffs Backfire: New York Fed Study Says Americans Pay

36:20 Twin Deficits → Inflation & Rates: The Macro Chain Reaction

39:22 Housing Bubble Math: Rates Up Means Prices Must Fall

42:04 Giving Credit Where Due: Trump’s FDA Change to One Efficacy Study

45:05 Before 1962/1938: How Drug Approval Worked in a Freer Market

53:28 Wrap-Up: Newsletter, Gold/Silver, EuroPac Funds & Upcoming Live Show

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Presidents’ Day Is a Lie (It’s Washington’s Birthday)

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 03:20:18 +0000

It’s not “Presidents’ Day.” Legally, it’s George Washington’s Birthday—and we’ve quietly erased the one American who actually deserves a national holiday.

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In this episode, I explain how a 1968 law moved holidays to Mondays, how retail “Presidents’ Day” sales hijacked the meaning, and why Washington’s character matters: the war hero who survived what should’ve killed him, turned down a crown, stepped away after two terms, and personally led troops to put down the Whiskey Rebellion.

We also cover a modern contrast: government subsidies and incentives that raise prices, distort markets, and create the very “affordability” problems politicians pretend to solve.

Chapters:

00:00 Cold Open: No Friends in the Pits

00:20 Show Intro: The Peter Schiff Show Begins

00:55 Why It’s George Washington’s Birthday (Not “Presidents’ Day”)

02:46 How “Presidents’ Day” Sales Hijacked the Holiday

05:32 Washington’s Early Life & French and Indian War Heroics

09:22 Leading the Revolution: Beating the World’s Strongest Army

12:07 Turning Down a Crown & Setting the Two-Term Precedent

13:39 The Whiskey Rebellion: A President Who Led from the Front

16:27 Why Washington Deserves the Holiday (And the Modern Debate)

19:32 Pepsi Cuts Prices 15%: The SNAP Junk Food Policy Angle

23:08 The Bigger Lesson: Subsidies Raise Prices (College, Housing, More)

25:34 Why Subsidies Make Housing, College & Healthcare More Expensive

26:48 Trump on Keeping Home Prices High (and the Credit-Fueled Fix)

28:57 Affordability 101: Demand Down or Supply Up?

30:15 SNAP Benefits as Money Supply: How It Spills Into Everything

33:43 The Farm Subsidy Paradox: Paying to Raise Food Prices

38:31 Government Spending, Inflation, and the Case for Gold

39:11 Gold & Silver Levels + Why to Dump Bitcoin

40:37 MicroStrategy/Strategy and Michael Saylor: The “Legal Ponzi” Critique

47:23 Palm Beach “Trump Airport” Trademark Story

50:44 Wrap-Up: Calls to Action, Subscribing, and Sign-Off

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Jobs Report “Beat” Is Another Lie: 1.1 Million Jobs Erased

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 03:50:40 +0000

Peter Schiff explains why today’s “better than expected” jobs report is meaningless—and why the real story is the massive downward revisions. The government erased roughly 2.5 million jobs going back to 2019, including about 1.1 million from 2025 and over 800,000 from 2024. That means many of the celebrated “beats” from the past two years were actually misses, and markets were trading on bad data.

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Schiff breaks down how automated trading reacts to jobs prints (strong jobs = buy dollars/sell gold), why the birth/death model distorted reality, and why gold and the dollar are no longer reacting the way they used to. He also covers rising oil and oil stocks, why gold and silver miners may hit new highs before the metals, why foreign markets are crushing U.S. stocks year-to-date, and why the dollar index looks set up for a sharper decline.

Finally, Schiff argues the crypto crash is the first bubble to pop—an early warning for broader asset bubbles—and explains why tokenized gold is becoming the real “digital money” narrative as Bitcoin’s “digital gold” claim fails in real time.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:56 Analyzing the Employment Report

03:06 Revisions and Job Market Realities

07:17 Impact on Markets and Currency

11:41 Oil and Energy Market Trends

16:24 Stock Market Performance and Predictions

26:06 Economic Data and Debt Discussion

31:04 Inflation and Its Consequences

34:11 Understanding Poverty and Supply

35:52 The Role of the US Dollar in Global Trade

37:07 Impact of Dollar Collapse on Global Markets

40:11 Trump Administration's Economic Policies

41:51 Bitcoin's Decline and Market Bubbles

52:21 The Future of Gold and Tokenization

58:34 Preparing for Economic Crisis

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#economiccrisis #jobmarketanalysis #goldinvestment

Tariffs Are a Tax: Price Shock Ahead

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 04:35:28 +0000

Peter Schiff examines the economic fallout from tariffs, critiques Bitcoin's poor performance, and forecasts the implications for upcoming elections.

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Gold and silver are stabilizing after last week’s historic paper-market smash, and the real story is what’s coming next: a weaker jobs trend, rising energy, and a tariff regime that’s functionally a tax on everyday Americans.

Peter breaks down the ugly ADP print (and the downward revision), why the “strongest economy ever” narrative doesn’t pass the smell test, and why oil’s turn higher undermines the administration’s last clean talking point on inflation.

Then Peter walks through Scott Bessent’s testimony and why tariffs are politically toxic: officials can’t claim tariffs don’t raise prices while simultaneously admitting removing tariffs lowers prices. That contradiction is the whole game.

Finally, Peter covers the optics and incentives of open graft and self-dealing, why it’s setting a precedent both parties will exploit, and why this mix of affordability pain, weak labor signals, and policy doublespeak is tailor-made to punish the incumbents in the midterms.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:55 Market Analysis: Gold and Silver

06:30 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Critique

19:40 Economic Indicators and Job Numbers

26:30 Political Commentary and Election Predictions

29:45 Midterm Election Predictions

30:08 Scott Bessett's Testimony

31:20 Republican Strategies and Challenges

33:00 Economic Concerns and Tariffs

33:59 Calci Sponsorship

35:27 Tariffs and Affordability Issues

43:23 Trump's Conflicts of Interest

54:13 Housing Affordability Debate

57:33 Conclusion and Upcoming Content

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Gold & Silver Crash: Why This Selloff Changes Nothing (Buy the Dip)

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 02:07:54 +0000

Gold and silver just experienced one of the most violent paper selloffs in history—but does it actually change the bull market? In this special Sunday night edition of the Schiff Gold Market Wrap, Peter Schiff explains why this crash was driven by coordinated futures selling, not fundamentals, and why it represents an opportunity rather than a turning point.

Peter breaks down what caused the sudden collapse, why physical demand for gold and silver is increasing even as paper prices fall, and why premiums are already rising. He explains how short sellers engineered the move, why they ultimately can’t deliver the metal they sold, and why this sets the stage for higher prices ahead.

The episode also covers why mining stocks were hit even harder than metals, why those declines create exceptional value, and how earnings will soon expose the disconnect between prices and fundamentals. Peter explains why Bitcoin continues to fail as “digital gold,” why crypto fell without benefiting from the gold rally, and why this moment offers a rare chance to rotate out of crypto and into real money.

Despite extreme volatility, gold near $4,700 and silver near $80 remain historically strong prices. Peter explains why this selloff doesn’t damage the long-term trend, why Asian buying remains strong, and why the biggest risk now belongs to short sellers—not long-term holders.

This episode is essential viewing for anyone holding gold, silver, mining stocks, or crypto.

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Powell's Absurd Admissions Send Gold & Silver Soaring

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 03:44:25 +0000

Peter Schiff examines the Fed's misguided policies, the soaring gold market, and the looming dollar crisis, urging listeners to act before it's too late.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the recent absurd admissions from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that have sent gold prices soaring. As the dollar continues its alarming decline, Schiff scrutinizes Powell's dismissal of gold's significance and the Fed's troubling monetary policies. He highlights the urgency of investing in precious metals like gold and silver amid the looming dollar crisis and a global shift away from the U.S. currency. Schiff's insights reinforce his long-standing belief that the current economic environment is ripe for disaster, urging listeners to take proactive measures to protect their wealth. Tune in as Peter Schiff provides his critical analysis of the unfolding financial landscape and what it means for investors today.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:05 Gold and Silver: The Financial Story of the Decade

05:08 The Dollar's Decline and Trump's Economic Claims

07:09 The Global Political Order and America's Economic Collapse

09:06 The Urgency of Buying Gold and Silver

11:17 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Critical Analysis

20:34 The Fed's Stance on the Dollar and Gold

30:23 Gold as a Monetary Indicator

31:48 Powell's Dismissal of Gold

32:44 The Fed's Missteps and Gold's Warning

36:25 The Global Shift Away from the Dollar

38:24 The Real Crash and Investment Strategies

39:27 The Importance of Early Positioning

42:32 The Looming Dollar Crisis

43:27 Investment Opportunities and Final Thoughts

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#goldinvestment #dollardevaluation #financialcrisis

Trump Starts the Race to Get Out of the Dollar

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 22:11:00 +0000

Peter Schiff examines Trump's Greenland controversy, the surge in gold and silver, and the looming dollar crisis impacting global markets.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the critical economic shifts sparked by Donald Trump’s recent speeches and policies. He analyzes the implications of Trump's controversial remarks on Greenland, his inflationary policies, and the ongoing surge in gold and silver prices. Schiff highlights the growing disconnect between the perceived strength of the U.S. economy and the reality of market instability, emphasizing the need for investors to reconsider their strategies in light of a weakening dollar. With insights into Bitcoin, precious metals, and the housing bubble, Schiff provides listeners with an in-depth understanding of the current financial landscape and strategies to navigate the impending economic challenges.

Chapters:

00:55 Live Market Commentary

02:25 Gold and Silver Surge

03:48 Trump's Greenland Controversy

09:33 Market Reactions and Predictions

20:45 Bitcoin vs. Precious Metals

23:41 Investment Strategies and Recommendations

26:06 Global Economic Shifts

32:09 Survival on the Island: The American and the Asians

33:57 Trump's European Tour and America's Dependence

35:18 Trump's Inflationary Policies and Housing Bubble

43:19 Credit Card Interest Rates and Economic Consequences

54:12 The Real Crash and Investment Strategies

58:45 Market Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts

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The Real Crash Is Finally Here

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 01:28:19 +0000

Peter Schiff examines the looming economic crisis, analyzes the surge in precious metals, and critiques Trump's controversial policies and military strategies.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show titled "The Real Crash Is Finally Here," Peter Schiff delves into the alarming state of the US economy and the imminent financial collapse. He expertly analyzes the recent decline in the US market, the surge in precious metals, and the precarious position of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Schiff discusses the implications of Trump's controversial policies, including his approach to Greenland and tariffs, while also warning listeners about the government's role in financial crises. With insights on the declining US dollar and the political fallout from economic turmoil, Peter Schiff provides a compelling call to action for listeners to prepare for the impending financial collapse. This episode is a must-listen for anyone wanting to understand the reality of today’s economic landscape.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

01:19 US Market Decline and Precious Metals Surge

04:30 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

06:31 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Performance

11:54 Trump's Greenland Controversy

19:02 Trump's Economic and Military Policies

32:21 Trump's Greenland Invasion Logic

33:03 Tariffs and Preventing Future Crises

33:31 Subprime Mortgage Crisis Warnings

35:45 Government's Role in Financial Crises

37:02 US Military Presence and Global Relations

38:18 The Decline of the US Dollar

39:43 Economic Crisis and Political Fallout

51:25 Preparing for Financial Collapse

53:08 Final Thoughts and Call to Action

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Strong Fundamentals and Technicals Send Gold and Silver to Record Highs

Sat, 17 Jan 2026 19:00:57 +0000

Gold and silver just posted historic record highs, and Wall Street is still asleep.

In this week’s Schiff Gold Friday Market Wrap, Peter Schiff breaks down the biggest one-day dollar rally in gold history, silver’s surge above $90 an ounce, and why recent volatility is consolidation at extreme highs — not a top.

Peter explains why:

Gold and silver are flashing early warnings of a coming U.S. dollar and Treasury bond crisis
Mining stocks remain dramatically undervalued despite exploding metal prices
Inflation is accelerating again while the Fed talks about rate cuts
Rising Japanese bond yields threaten global bond markets
Trump-era policies are unintentionally pushing the world away from the dollar and into gold
CPI headlines are misleading while producer inflation is surging
This moment mirrors subprime in 2007 — an early signal before a much larger crisis

Gold is reacting first. Silver followed. Bonds and the dollar are next.

Peter also explains why waiting for pullbacks is a mistake, why physical silver supplies may tighten sharply, and why this bull market is just getting started.

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Trump Fed Feud Sends Gold and Silver Soaring

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 00:51:28 +0000

Peter Schiff examines the soaring prices of gold and silver, critiques Trump's Fed policies, and discusses the implications for the dollar and global markets.

This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “demystifying ai” at https://netsuite.com/gold

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the escalating feud between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, examining the implications for gold and silver markets. Peter highlights the recent surge in precious metals, driven by Powell's legal troubles and Trump’s controversial proposals, including a proposed cap on credit card interest rates. As Schiff critiques the mainstream media's dismissal of these significant market movements, he emphasizes the necessity for investors to reassess their positions amid a potential dollar crisis. With insights into the realities of monetary policy and the threats to financial stability, Peter Schiff offers a compelling analysis of the current economic landscape.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

01:04 Precious Metals Surge

04:19 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks

06:08 Mainstream Media's Take on Gold

11:05 Jerome Powell's Legal Troubles

18:50 Trump vs. Powell: The Fed Feud

24:06 Implications for the Dollar and Gold

31:15 Bitcoin and Other Markets

32:28 Trump's Proposed Credit Card Interest Cap

32:55 Credit Card Interest Rates and Government Intervention

33:58 Comparing Trump and Kamala Harris on Price Controls

35:23 The Reality of Credit Card Market Competition

39:58 Consequences of Capping Credit Card Interest Rates

43:38 Trump's Views on Presidential Power and Foreign Policy

49:25 Economic Implications and Investment Advice

01:00:01 Final Thoughts and Call to Action

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#TrumpFedFeud #GoldAndSilver #EconomicImplications

Precious Metals Start 2026 With Strong Gains

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 03:10:12 +0000

In this Schiff Gold Friday Market Wrap, Peter Schiff breaks down the explosive start to 2026 for precious metals after a historic 2025: gold surged, silver and platinum ripped higher, and mining stocks finally confirmed the bull market by outperforming the metals. Peter explains why this is no longer “just a gold story,” why silver’s breakout likely reset support far above the old $50 ceiling, and why miners still look cheap despite massive gains.

He also warns that 2026 could bring a physical silver squeeze—rising demand, tightening supply, and potential premium spikes that may make getting silver harder than simply watching the spot price. Peter connects the metals move to the bigger macro backdrop: de-dollarization, ballooning U.S. deficits and debt, weakening labor data, rising global yields (including Japan), and policy-driven inflation pressures.

Finally, he revisits the fading “Bitcoin as digital gold” narrative—why Bitcoin lagged while real money led, and why that shift could accelerate capital flows toward gold, silver, and mining stocks in 2026.

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Year-End Special: My 2026 Economic and Market Forecasts

Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:18:11 +0000

Silver didn’t just rally in 2025 — it broke out. After blasting through the multi-decade $50 ceiling and printing a violent spike into the $80s, silver finished the year still above $70, up roughly 140% while gold surged 64%. Meanwhile, the asset CNBC swore would win the year — Bitcoin — finished down, and Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MicroStrategy) collapsed to a fresh 52-week low.

In this episode, Peter Schiff explains why the “blow-off top” narrative is wrong, why silver’s skepticism is actually bullish, and why this breakout is the start of a new leg higher — not the end. He also lays out why 2026 is shaping up as stagflation (weaker growth + stronger inflation), why tariffs will filter into consumer prices, why the Fed will face massive political pressure to cut and monetize, and why capital is rotating out of U.S. assets and into precious metals, commodities, foreign stocks, and emerging markets.

If you’re still treating Bitcoin as “digital gold,” this is your warning shot: silver is signaling something big — and crypto may be next to unwind.

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Silver Rocket, Bitcoin Breakdown: Why Metals Are Crushing Crypto (2025 Recap)

Sat, 27 Dec 2025 21:44:54 +0000

Silver just ripped to roughly $77 in a historic breakout, platinum hit an all-time high, and gold is pushing $4,500+—while Bitcoin and crypto-related trades show growing cracks. In this X Spaces recording (day after Christmas / Boxing Day), Peter Schiff explains why the metals move is not a “bubble,” why Wall Street missed it, and why gold/silver mining stocks may still be mispriced even after the rally.

Topics covered:

Why big rallies keep starting in Asia’s opening

Silver’s breakout logic (and why it was “ridiculously cheap” earlier)

Platinum’s record move and what it signals

Why Schiff thinks Bitcoin/crypto is vulnerable (including MicroStrategy risk)

Why mining stocks may still be a Q1 setup

Dollar confidence, inflation dynamics, and the macro backdrop

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

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#BitcoinCrash #SilverInvestment #EconomicPolicies

Silver's Epic Rally Signals Bitcoin's Imminent Collapse

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 01:15:19 +0000

Peter Schiff forecasts an imminent Bitcoin crash, critiques Trump's economic policies, and highlights the surging silver market in this episode of The Peter Schiff Show.

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast - Ep 1054

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff dives deep into the implications of Silver's recent surge and the ominous signs of an impending Bitcoin collapse. With keen insights, he critiques the current economic landscape shaped by Trump's policies and discusses the ramifications of AI and automation on the job market. Schiff questions the reliability of government statistics, emphasizing the looming risks of inflation and the realities of the labor market. He also warns listeners about the dangers of understanding the cryptocurrency market, urging them to reconsider their investments in light of potential economic turmoil. This episode embodies Schiff's unwavering commitment to revealing the truth behind financial markets and advocating for sound investment strategies.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:54 Holiday Plans and Podcast Schedule

03:24 Silver Market Analysis

07:49 Gold and Silver Investment Advice

11:09 Jobs Report and Inflation Data

22:18 Trump's Economic Policies and Critique

33:41 AI and Automation Discussion

34:59 The Flawed Logic of Anti-AI Sentiment

35:50 Bernie Sanders and the AI Debate

37:25 Trump's Media Ventures and Financial Maneuvers

44:39 The Looming Bitcoin Crash

50:38 Investment Strategies and Market Predictions

59:31 Supporting Independent Music

01:03:24 Final Thoughts and Holiday Wishes

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#BitcoinCrash #SilverInvestment #EconomicPolicies

QE is Back! Cost of Living Will Soar - Ep 1053

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 00:43:14 +0000

QE is coming back — and President Trump isn’t happy about Peter Schiff saying it out loud. After Schiff’s Fox interview, Trump fired off a Truth Social post attacking him… but the math doesn’t lie. Washington’s spending is exploding, deficits are surging, and the Fed has no way to finance it without returning to quantitative easing.

This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “demystifying ai” at https://netsuite.com/gold

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the resurgence of Quantitative Easing (QE) and its implications for the economy. He argues that the return of QE is a clear signal that politicians, particularly Trump, are unable to fund their ambitious agendas without relying on monetary expansion. As markets begin to react to this reality, Schiff highlights the unraveling of the "Everything Bubble" and the inevitable departure from affordability that follows. With keen insight, he exposes the truths that politicians refuse to acknowledge, emphasizing that the consequences of QE will impact everyday Americans. Tune in as Schiff navigates these critical issues, offering a perspective rooted in economic reality.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:55 Federal Reserve's Recent Actions

03:23 Quantitative Easing Explained

08:16 Market Reactions and Predictions

12:11 Impact on Inflation and Employment

30:45 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact

39:41 Trump's Role in Inflation

40:18 Biden's Inflation Policies

41:29 Trump's Economic Policies Critiqued

41:46 Fox News Interview Fallout

46:20 Housing Market Reset

48:10 Trump's Reaction on Social Media

55:18 Debate Challenge to Trump

56:09 Bitcoin vs. Tokenized Gold Debate

01:09:42 Investment Advice and Predictions

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#QE #QuantitativeEasing #EconomicImpact

Raised Rate Cut Hopes Lift Markets - Ep 1052

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 03:24:45 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the Federal Reserve's policies, discusses the housing market crisis, and forecasts gold and cryptocurrency trends in this episode.

This episode is sponsored by Hims. Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/gold

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the critical dynamics shaping today’s financial landscape. He dissects the recent market movements triggered by the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and the implications for gold and silver prices. Schiff critiques the ongoing affordability crisis in housing and healthcare, highlighting the detrimental effects of government spending and inflation. He also explores the current state of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the shifting sentiment as investors reconsider their positions. Listeners can expect a thorough analysis of how these trends intersect with broader economic policies and the enduring battle between capitalism and socialism. Tune in for Schiff's insights on navigating the complex financial terrain ahead.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:55 Gold and Silver Market Analysis

03:29 Federal Reserve and Economic Policies

10:07 Housing Market and Affordability Crisis

21:03 Impact of Potential Fed Chair Change

24:19 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market

29:27 Holiday Spending and Trade Deficits

31:53 Economic Growth and Capitalism vs. Socialism

32:43 The Real Story of Thanksgiving

39:59 Bitcoin and the Crypto Market

54:17 Conclusion and Investment Advice

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#FedRateHike #GoldMarketAnalysis #BitcoinTrends

The Fed's Forever Blowing Bubbles - Ep 1051

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 03:34:26 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the bursting crypto bubble, warns of impending market collapses, and discusses the implications of reckless monetary policies.

This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the current financial landscape, emphasizing the ongoing collapse of the Bitcoin and crypto bubbles, while raising concerns about the potential fallout in other sectors, including AI and housing. He analyzes the precarious state of MicroStrategy and its impact on Bitcoin prices, challenging the validity of its business model. Schiff addresses the Federal Reserve's contradictory stance on inflation and tariffs, criticizing the government's fiscal policies that have led to rampant market bubbles. With insights into the healthcare crisis and IRS controversies, Schiff presents a stark reality of the economic situation, reinforcing his perspective on the unsustainable nature of current financial practices.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:54 The Crypto Bubble and Market Bubbles

04:14 AI Bubble and Its Potential

07:05 Bitcoin's Decline and Market Reactions

12:43 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Treasury Companies

24:09 Debate Challenges and Tokenized Gold

35:18 FOMC Meeting Minutes and Job Reports

36:50 Labor Market and Inflation Insights

37:45 Tariffs and Their Impact on Prices

39:14 Quantitative Easing and the Dollar

41:04 Healthcare Crisis and Insurance Issues

48:43 FOIA Lawsuit Against the IRS

53:10 Publicity Stunt and Bank Shutdown

01:09:21 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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#crypto #inflation #MicroStrategy

Crypto Carnage as Gold Eats Bitcoin's Lunch - Ep 1050

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 04:10:22 +0000

Peter Schiff dissects the crypto market collapse, evaluates gold’s surge in value, and critiques government policies impacting housing affordability.

This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the recent turmoil in the financial markets, highlighting the stark contrasts between precious metals and the declining crypto sector. He discusses the surge in gold and silver prices amidst government actions, the implications of potential government shutdowns, and the risky landscape of crypto investments, particularly Bitcoin's significant drop against gold. Schiff emphasizes the government's detrimental role in housing affordability and the proposed measures that could exacerbate financial instability. As always, he provides keen insights rooted in economic reality, urging listeners to consider the long-term implications of current market trends and policies.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:54 Precious Metals Market Update

05:08 Government Shutdown and Its Impact on Gold

06:52 Crypto Market Analysis and Predictions

10:28 Trump's Influence on Crypto and Economic Implications

20:56 Fannie and Freddie: The Trump Trade

31:29 Government's Role in Housing Affordability

32:08 Impact of Tariffs on Housing Costs

32:29 Immigration and Construction Labor Costs

34:33 Credit and Mortgage Guarantees

37:19 Proposed 50-Year Mortgages

40:06 Eliminating FICO Score Minimums

43:27 Assumable and Portable Mortgages

54:29 Investment Opportunities in Gold and Silver

01:01:43 Conclusion and Upcoming Podcast

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#crypto #bitcoin #gold

Data Confirms "Hot" US Economy Is Ice Cold - Ep 1049

Sat, 08 Nov 2025 00:55:40 +0000

Peter Schiff examines the paradox of a hot U.S. economy amid cold realities, discusses cryptocurrency, and critiques political misconceptions and tariffs.

This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “Demystifying AI” at https://netsuite.com/gold

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the stark contrast between the perceived strength of the U.S. economy and its underlying fragility. Listeners will gain valuable insights as Peter analyzes the gold market, Bitcoin, and economic realities that challenge political narratives. The discussion also touches on the implications of the New York mayoral election, misconceptions about communism, and Trump's contentious tariffs. With a keen focus on the economic policies shaping our lives, this episode is essential for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of today's financial landscape. Join Peter as he cuts through the noise and reveals the truth behind the headlines.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:56 Gold Market Analysis

03:24 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights

12:18 Economic Reality vs. Political Claims

19:04 New York Mayoral Election and Economic Policies

31:13 The Impact of Free Public Transportation

32:17 Misconceptions About Communism

34:36 Trump's Unconstitutional Tariffs

42:37 The Filibuster Debate

55:32 Gold and Silver Market Insights

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#USEconomy #CryptoInsights #NewYorkPolitics

Powell Dashes Hopes for a December Rate Cut - Ep 1048

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 01:31:09 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the Federal Reserve's recent rate decisions, analyzes the implications for inflation and interest rates, and discusses gold's pivotal role in today's economy.

This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/gold

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent decisions, including its latest interest rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening. He unpacks the impact of these policies on inflation, the economy, and the stock market, while emphasizing the persistent threats posed by excessive monetary expansion. Schiff critiques the Fed's narrative of economic strength, arguing that the increasing gold price signals a deeper financial instability. Key discussions include the contrasting fates of gold and Bitcoin, the true state of employment, and the dangers of overvalued tech stocks. This episode is a must-listen for those seeking clarity on the current economic landscape and the potential consequences of the Fed's actions.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:55 Federal Reserve's Recent Actions

02:20 Impact on the Economy and Markets

03:15 Discussion on Quantitative Tightening

06:29 Interest Rates and Inflation

17:31 Gold Market Analysis

24:41 New Product Announcement at Schiff Gold

31:39 Setting Up the Infrastructure

31:49 Gold as a Medium of Exchange

33:00 Bitcoin vs. Gold

37:07 Stock Market and AI Valuations

42:44 Tariffs and American Workers

47:11 Inflation and the Fed's Policies

55:09 Investment Opportunities and Final Thoughts

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#FederalReserve #InterestRates #GoldMarketAnalysis

Gold Successfully Tests $4k Support - Ep 1047

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 23:40:54 +0000

Peter Schiff examines gold and silver market volatility, critiques the Fed's misguided policies, and discusses the implications of Trump's influence on the economy.

This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the ongoing volatility in the gold and silver markets, analyzing recent corrections and investor sentiment. He discusses the implications of economic indicators and Federal Reserve actions, as well as the contrasting dynamics between Bitcoin and gold. Schiff critiques media portrayals of market trends, emphasizing the persistent skepticism surrounding gold investments. With insights on Newmont's earnings and a critical examination of government spending, Schiff articulates his perspective on the future of precious metals and the broader economic landscape. Listeners can expect a thought-provoking analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and reinforces Schiff's established views on financial prudence and market realities.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:55 Gold and Silver Market Volatility

03:40 Gold's Correction and Market Reactions

07:47 Investor Sentiment and Media Coverage

13:53 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions

20:54 Newmont's Earnings and Market Skepticism

27:38 Bitcoin vs. Gold: Market Dynamics

29:45 Trump's Ballroom and Crypto Industry Influence

34:20 Trump's Ego and the National Debt

35:39 Government Shutdowns and Trump's Legacy

37:41 Trade Negotiations and Reagan's Legacy

41:34 Government Investments and Market Interference

48:15 Crypto Collateral and Market Risks

55:57 YouTube Shadow Banning and Subscriber Growth

01:03:55 Gold and Silver Investment Opportunities

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#goldmarket #cryptocurrency #investingstrategies

Crypto Industry & Wall Street Unite Against Gold - Gold Wrap

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 13:08:07 +0000

Join Peter Schiff for a special Tuesday Market Wrap episode of the Schiff Gold Podcast, where he dives into the historic highs and recent volatility in the gold and silver markets. Originally planning to cover two weeks of market activity in a single Friday wrap-up, Schiff decided to address the significant happenings of the past three days immediately. On Monday, gold prices set a new all-time high, nearly touching $4,380, before experiencing a dramatic sell-off. Despite this, gold closed the week robustly above $4,250. Schiff discusses the widespread speculative sentiment from the crypto community and Wall Street, dismissing the notion that the gold bull market is over. Emphasizing the structural strengths and ongoing consolidation phase of gold and silver, Schiff reassures investors of the long-term uptrend. He also criticizes Bitcoin proponents claiming Bitcoin will surpass gold, labeling it as wishful thinking. Schiff highlights the resurgence of gold's appeal over Bitcoin, driven by massive structural changes and global tendencies to shift back to the gold standard. With energy costs falling, gold mining stocks are posed for significant earnings. Schiff underscores the value of using this pullback as a buying opportunity for both new and long-term investors in gold and silver.

Jamie Dimon Admits Peter Schiff Was Right - Ep 1046

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 02:15:32 +0000

Peter Schiff analyzes gold's surge, critiques Jamie Dimon's admission on gold's rationality, and discusses the impending dollar crisis.

This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the pressing realities of today's economic landscape, highlighting Jamie Dimon's recent admission regarding gold's significance in investment portfolios. Schiff discusses the meteoric rise of gold and silver, drawing parallels to historical economic shifts reminiscent of the 1970s. He provides critical insights into the dollar's declining status, the implications of global economic changes, and the stark contrast between gold and Bitcoin. As the market dynamics evolve, Schiff emphasizes the urgent need for investors to reconsider their positions, particularly as the risks associated with Bitcoin become increasingly apparent. Tune in for a comprehensive analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and reinforces Schiff's steadfast belief in the enduring value of gold.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:55 Gold's Meteoric Rise and Media Attention

01:56 Silver's Performance and Investment Advice

03:55 Historical Context: 1970s vs. 2020s

05:37 The Dollar Standard and Global Economic Shifts

07:21 Jamie Dimon's Admission and Rationality of Gold

09:56 Gold's Future and Wall Street's Realization

20:31 Current Market Update and Urgent Investment Advice

22:33 Comparing Gold and Bitcoin

23:46 Fed Policies and Historical Perspectives

25:05 China's Trade and Economic Position

30:53 Bitcoin's Decline and Market Manipulation

37:01 Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events

34:27 Alan Greenspan's Perspective on Gold

35:27 The Case for Investing in Gold Stocks

38:53 China's Trade Dynamics and the US Relationship

43:52 Bitcoin's Decline and the Rise of Gold

01:00:01 Conclusion and Upcoming Events

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#goldinvestment #bitcoincrash #marketupdate

Gold Tops $4K as World Prepares to Go Off Dollar Standard - Ep 1045

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 03:36:48 +0000

Peter Schiff examines gold's historic surge past $4,000, critiques the dollar's decline, and warns of looming economic crises and fiscal irresponsibility.

This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning” at https://netsuite.com/gold

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the alarming rise of gold prices, which recently surpassed $4,000, signaling a potential dollar crisis. He explores the historical context of gold's surge, drawing parallels to the economic turmoil of the 1970s when the United States abandoned the gold standard. Schiff emphasizes the implications of central banks diversifying away from the dollar and warns of the impending economic collapse as the U.S. grapples with unsustainable fiscal policies. With personal anecdotes and keen insights, Schiff articulates the urgency for investors to reconsider their strategies in light of these developments, positioning gold as a crucial safe haven amid rising inflation and currency devaluation. Tune in for a thought-provoking discussion on the future of the global economy and the significance of gold in these turbulent times.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:56 Gold's Historic Surge

04:57 The 1970s Gold Standard and Its Impact

10:06 The Dollar's Decline and Global Implications

17:24 Personal Anecdote and Upcoming Events

18:43 The Shift from Dollar to Gold Standard

20:15 Central Banks and Fiscal Policies

26:39 The Looming Dollar Crisis

31:37 Gold's Rising Significance on Wall Street

32:19 Personal Experiences with Gold Predictions

34:03 Gold vs. Bitcoin: A Media Bias

36:32 Gold as the Canary in the Coal Mine

38:27 Kudlow's Dismissal of Gold's Warning

41:24 The Looming Economic Crisis

43:52 Investment Strategies Amidst Economic Uncertainty

47:44 The Global Economic Shift

59:57 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Events

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#gold #dollarcrisis #economiccollapse

The Government Shutdown Hides a Weak Economy Trump Can’t Fix - Ep 1044

Sat, 04 Oct 2025 01:05:15 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the government shutdown's impact on economic data, dissects Trump's controversial drug pricing plans, and addresses misguided tariff policies.

This episode is sponsored by Lucy. Go to https://lucy.co/gold and use promo code GOLD to get 20% off your first order

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and its implications for the economy. He discusses the troubling job market, highlighted by disappointing job reports, and offers insights into the rising trends in the gold and silver markets. Peter criticizes the government's response to economic challenges and addresses the controversial tariff policies introduced by former President Trump. He also tackles the impact of these policies on various industries, including pharmaceuticals and entertainment. Listeners can expect a candid analysis of the current economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of understanding real value in the face of inflation and government intervention.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

03:36 Government Shutdown and Its Implications

09:47 Economic Analysis: Jobs Report and Market Performance

15:34 Gold and Silver Market Insights

23:16 Upcoming Appearances and Conferences

28:11 Market Recap: Gold and Silver Trends

29:21 Pharmaceutical Stocks Surge Amid Trump's Drug Price Plan

32:41 Trump's Controversial Tariff Policies

37:34 The Movie Tariff Proposal: A Misunderstanding of Tariffs

48:12 The Hypocrisy of Hollywood's Capitalism Critique

54:43 Conclusion and Announcements

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Trump Hits Americans With More Tariffs - Ep 1043

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 23:21:26 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses the surge in precious metals, critiques Trump's tariffs on various industries, and warns of impending economic challenges ahead.

This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the pressing issues affecting the global economy, including the surge in precious metals, the implications of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, and the shifting landscape of investment portfolios. Peter highlights the recent performance of gold and silver as inflation hedges, scrutinizing the misguided narratives surrounding cryptocurrency and stock market valuations. He emphasizes the critical need for sound economic policies that prioritize free market principles over government intervention. As he breaks down the latest market trends and economic indicators, Peter Schiff provides listeners with a reality check on the true state of the economy while advocating for the importance of gold and silver in any investment strategy. Tune in for an insightful analysis that challenges mainstream economic beliefs.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:02 Precious Metals Market Update

02:57 Gold and Silver Performance Analysis

06:38 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights

08:52 Morgan Stanley's Portfolio Adjustment

22:44 Stock Market Valuation and AI Investments

29:33 Inflation and Rising Costs

29:59 Disney's Price Hike and Real Inflation

30:57 Personal Income and Spending Data

32:14 Fed's Rate Cuts and Economic Impact

34:13 Trump's H-1B Visa Policy

39:46 Impact of Tariffs on Economy

53:58 Trump's Gold and Platinum Cards

56:16 Conclusion and Call to Action

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Fed's Biggest Policy Mistake Yet - Ep 1042

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 00:07:16 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the Fed's latest rate cuts, discusses inflationary pressures, and highlights the looming housing affordability crisis.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the Federal Reserve's latest rate cuts, discussing the implications of these policy decisions on the economy and inflation. With a sharp critique of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements, Schiff highlights the potential risks to economic stability and the growing divergence of opinions within the Fed. He explores the impact of tariffs on inflation, the ongoing housing affordability crisis, and the dangers of cutting rates amidst record-high asset prices. Schiff's insights underscore the fallacy of the Fed's mandates and the dire consequences of monetary policy missteps, positioning him as a critical voice amid economic uncertainty. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and exposes the reality behind the Fed's actions.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:58 Fed Rate Announcement and Market Expectations

02:00 Press Conference Highlights and Powell's Statements

10:03 Discussion on Tariffs and Inflation

19:27 Threats to Fed Independence and Political Influence

21:38 Divergence of Opinions within the Fed

30:25 Debating Interest Rates and Inflation

31:12 The Fed's Impossible Mandates

33:42 Unemployment Rate Realities

35:09 Quantitative Tightening and Market Reactions

37:33 Housing Affordability Crisis

40:59 Government Policies and Market Solutions

46:42 Stock Market and Gold Predictions

52:59 Investment Strategies and Final Thoughts

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#FedPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation

Charlie Kirk Was Right - Ep 1041

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 00:59:27 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the August CPI report, warns of rising inflation, and reflects on the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the latest economic insights surrounding the August Consumer Price Data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. He critiques government labor market statistics, asserting their unreliability and the significant discrepancies between reported job growth and actual economic conditions. Schiff discusses the potential repercussions of anticipated rate cuts, the rising concerns over inflation, and the implications for gold and silver investments. He also reflects on recent tragic events, including the assassination of prominent political commentator Charlie Kirk, highlighting the societal implications of such violence. Tune in as Schiff navigates these pressing topics, offering his unfiltered perspective on the current economic landscape and its future trajectory.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:58 Anticipation of August Consumer Price Data

01:43 Analysis of CPI Report and Fed's Inflation Target

03:26 Critique of Government Data and Labor Market

04:53 Impact of Job Market on Fed's Rate Decisions

07:05 Historical Context and Fed's Policy Shifts

07:50 Market Reactions and Predictions

22:48 Gold and Silver Investment Insights

27:33 Performance of Gold Stocks vs. S&P 500

37:22 Economic Outlook and Policy Implications

39:38 Economic Challenges and Predictions

40:45 The Future of Gold and Inflation

42:44 Government Jobs and Economic Impact

45:04 Trump's Renaming of Departments

47:08 Remembering 9/11 and Its Aftermath

48:25 The Tragic Assassination of Charlie Kirk

53:18 Racial Double Standards in Media

01:02:14 Impact of Welfare Policies on Black Families

01:16:49 Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

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An Independent Fed May Be Ruled Unconstitutional - Ep 1040

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 23:24:26 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the August jobs report, analyzes the Federal Reserve's actions, and discusses the implications for gold and the U.S. dollar.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff dives deep into critical economic issues affecting the United States, including a thorough analysis of the latest August Jobs Report, which reveals a troubling trend of job losses reminiscent of the Great Recession. He critiques the economic policies of former President Trump, highlighting the stark contrast between the current labor market and its portrayal as robust by the Federal Reserve. Schiff also explores the implications of a potential constitutional ruling on the independence of the Federal Reserve and its impact on inflation and the dollar.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:26 Discussion on the August Jobs Report

04:04 Critique of Trump's Economic Policies

07:47 Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Actions

14:18 Housing Market Concerns

26:29 Gold and Silver Market Insights

30:57 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Comparative Analysis

31:29 Bitcoin's Performance Over the Years

31:49 The Rise of Bitcoin ETFs and Treasury Companies

34:00 The Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve

35:40 Constitutional Scrutiny of the Federal Reserve

37:16 The Independence of the Federal Reserve

48:04 Historical Context of Paper Money in the U.S.

55:07 The Future of Gold and the U.S. Dollar

56:03 Investment Opportunities and Final Thoughts

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Donald Trump Is Wrong - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1039

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 01:55:30 +0000

Peter Schiff examines Trump's unconstitutional tariffs, the implications for the gold market, and the potential economic consequences ahead.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff dives deep into the pressing economic issues surrounding Donald Trump's policies, including his controversial tariffs and their constitutional implications. Schiff provides a thorough analysis of the gold market, illustrating its current strength amidst a backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the dollar's value. He discusses Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, highlighting the potential legal and ethical ramifications of such actions. With a critical eye, Schiff underscores the economic consequences of these policies and advocates for investing in gold as a hedge against the impending financial turmoil. Join Schiff for an insightful exploration of the realities facing the economy today and the strategies for navigating them successfully.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:54 Labor Day Weekend Podcast Announcement

02:08 Gold Market Analysis

04:28 Trump's Tariffs and the Constitution

15:58 Commercial Break

17:49 Market Reactions and Predictions

27:16 Trump and the Federal Reserve

30:27 Trump's Strategy to Control the Fed

31:50 Legal and Ethical Implications

35:56 Economic Consequences of Trump's Policies

47:07 The Role of Gold in Economic Stability

51:44 Investment Strategies and Market Predictions

56:58 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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#DonaldTrump #GoldMarket #EconomicPolicies

Powell Gets His Mind Right - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1038

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:10:18 +0000

Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech marks a major pivot at the Federal Reserve. Peter Schiff explains how political pressure from the Trump administration has forced Powell’s hand, why stagflation is now undeniable, and what this means for gold, the dollar, and the future of the U.S. economy.

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In this Sunday Night Live edition of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter compares Powell’s capitulation to the “mind right” scene in Cool Hand Luke, warns about the Fed’s coming return to QE, and exposes the dangerous precedent of the U.S. government seizing a 10% stake in Intel. Schiff lays out why gold, silver, and foreign stocks are outperforming, and why the next phase of the crisis will be even more severe.

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

02:15 Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech: A Sober Assessment

06:48 Trump’s Pressure and Powell’s “Mind Right” Moment

12:02 Comparing Trump and Biden Economies

18:37 Stagflation Confirmed: Weak Growth, Stronger Inflation

24:10 Fed Policy, Employment Risks, and Inflation Mandate

29:44 The End of Inflation Averaging at 2%

36:50 Rate Cuts, Quantitative Tightening, and QE Ahead

44:15 Market Reactions: Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar

51:28 Gold and Silver Surge vs. Bitcoin’s Underperformance

58:44 Mining Stocks: GDX and GDXJ Leading 2025 Returns

01:05:37 Foreign Stocks and the Great Rotation Out of U.S. Equities

01:12:52 Intel’s 10% Government Stake and Rising Corporatism

01:20:46 Investment Strategy: Gold, Mining, and Foreign Markets

01:28:14 Conclusion and Schiff Sovereign Update

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#federalreserve #stagflation #gold #inflation #dollarcollapse #economy

Trump Administration Planning to Hijack the Fed - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1037

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 02:53:21 +0000

Peter Schiff is joined by James Hickman, a.k.a. Simon Black of Sovereign Man, to discuss the U.S. debt crisis, the Federal Reserve’s future, and why America may be headed toward a sovereign debt and dollar collapse.

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In this special edition of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter welcomes longtime friend and entrepreneur James Hickman, best known by his pen name Simon Black. Together, they dive into the launch of their new joint project Schiff Sovereign, the growing U.S. debt disaster, and the Trump administration’s controversial plan to take control of the Federal Reserve.

00:00 Introduction and Special Guest Announcement

02:34 James Hickman: The Man Behind Simon Black

04:01 The Birth of Schiff Sovereign

05:27 Introducing James to the Audience

09:01 The US Debt Crisis Unveiled

14:25 Historical Context and Interest Rates

21:21 The Fed's Role and Future Challenges

25:41 Trump Administration's Plan for the Fed

25:52 Money Heist: A Metaphor for the Fed

30:03 Economic Data Manipulation

30:59 Control of the Central Bank

31:20 Unusual Resignation at the Fed

32:35 Political Influence on the Fed

34:24 Mortgage Fraud Scandal

36:26 Implications of Rate Cuts

36:58 Treasury Strategies and Debt Refinancing

40:14 Stablecoins and the Genius Act

49:46 Historical Context and Future Predictions

50:25 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

01:02:43 Concluding Thoughts and Future Podcasts

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Surprise PPI Surge Dashes September Rate Cut Hopes - Ep 1036

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 03:55:03 +0000

Peter Schiff examines the surprising PPI surge, critiques economic data, and addresses the implications for inflation and the Fed's policies.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff dives into the latest economic data, revealing how a surprising PPI surge has dashed hopes for a September rate cut. He critiques the government’s misleading job numbers and discusses the implications of a growing budget deficit on the economy. Schiff also highlights the troubling trend of inflation, emphasizing the Fed's failure to act appropriately amidst worsening economic indicators. With insights on the gold and silver markets, he underscores the importance of understanding the true state of the economy, challenging the narratives promoted by politicians and the mainstream media. This episode is essential for anyone looking to grasp the reality of today’s financial landscape through Schiff’s candid analysis.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:56 Hurricane Impact and Podcast Continuation

01:37 Disappointing Economic Data Analysis

02:55 Trump's Reaction to Job Numbers

08:36 Inflation and Fed's Response

16:53 Budget Deficit and Economic Comparison

20:58 Tariffs and Legal Challenges

27:56 Gold and Silver Market Insights

33:52 Big Funds and Gold Stocks

34:57 Gold Fund and Dividend Payers

35:33 Global Investment Shifts

37:04 Bank Receivership and Qenta Deal

40:08 Qenta's Asset Handling Issues

46:11 Legal Battles and Customer Rights

53:11 Organizing Customer Lawsuits

01:04:15 Final Thoughts and Call to Action

#PPI #EconomicData #GoldMarket

How Trump Is Accelerating America’s Economic Decline - Ep 1035

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 19:48:15 +0000

Peter Schiff examines gold market dynamics, critiques Trump's economic policies, and discusses investment strategies amidst rising market trends.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff dives deeply into the current dynamics of the gold market, highlighting the significant impact of tariffs and Trump's economic policies on gold and its stocks. Listeners will gain insights into the asymmetric opportunities within gold stocks, the performance of Bitcoin compared to gold, and the ongoing de-dollarization trend. Schiff emphasizes the importance of recognizing the risks and rewards in today's market, urging investors to consider their strategies carefully. With a focus on international markets and the future of U.S. manufacturing, this episode encapsulates Schiff's unyielding perspective on economic realities, making it a must-listen for those seeking to navigate the complexities of investment in a turbulent financial landscape.

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Chapters:

03:01 Gold Market Insights

04:30 Impact of Tariffs on Gold

08:30 Gold Stocks Performance

11:14 Bitcoin vs. Gold

14:24 Investment Strategies and Fund Performance

19:49 US Dollar and International Markets

24:20 Trump's Economic Policies

31:19 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac History

36:26 Government Takeover of Fannie and Freddie

37:02 Trump's Plan for Fannie and Freddie

38:11 The Implicit vs. Explicit Guarantee Debate

39:48 The Case for Abolishing Fannie and Freddie

43:55 Trump's Economic Policies and Their Impact

44:57 The Future of US Manufacturing

49:37 Investment Strategies and Market Trends

53:21 Personal Investment Performance and Advice

58:45 Upcoming Events and Final Thoughts

#goldinvesting #economictrends #marketanalysis

Trump Fires BLS Commissioner, Agitates for Fed Mutiny - Ep 1034

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 00:55:59 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the latest jobs report, dissects the implications of Trump's tariffs, and explores the weak labor market and economic realities.

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the deceptive nature of recent job reports, highlighting how misleading statistics mask a weak labor market. He critiques the government's methodology in reporting job creation, emphasizing the significant downward revisions that undermine the perceived strength of the economy. Schiff discusses the implications of rising tariffs on consumer prices and how they contribute to stagflation, ultimately leading to a precarious economic outlook. As he analyzes the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates amidst these troubling indicators, Schiff reinforces his belief that the realities of the labor market and inflation are far more dire than official narratives suggest. Tune in for an insightful examination of the economic landscape through Schiff's candid lens.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the Jobs Report

00:42 Historical Context of Economic Indicators

01:22 Critique of Recent Job Reports

03:32 Revisions and Market Reactions

06:42 Current Jobs Report Analysis

08:23 Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Realities

10:59 Manufacturing Job Losses

15:43 Trump's Reaction and Firing of Labor Department Head

23:44 Economic Data and Market Implications

26:50 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights

29:47 Fed's Inflation Struggles and Policy Decisions

31:22 Powell's Response to Interest Burden Concerns

33:41 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Economy

37:04 Rolex Tariffs and Consumer Behavior

42:37 Trump's Influence on Fed and Rate Cuts

55:30 Upcoming Appearances and Personal Updates

#JobsReport #EconomicIndicators #LaborMarket

Trump Calls Powell Too Dumb for “Easiest Job” - Ep 1033

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 02:00:30 +0000

Peter Schiff examines Trump’s misguided economic critiques, delves into inflation's impact, and challenges the Fed’s policies in this episode.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the contentious relationship between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Schiff highlights Trump’s pointed criticisms of Powell's economic policies, framing them within a broader historical context of interest rates and inflation. As Schiff navigates the complexities of government spending and its impacts on the economy, he emphasizes the inherent contradictions in Trump's past economic stances. Additionally, the episode touches on significant issues such as voting rights and the implications for future generations. With Schiff's keen analysis, listeners will gain a deeper understanding of the economic landscape and the policies that shape it, reinforcing his perspective on the pressing realities facing the nation.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Headlines

00:55 Trump's Criticism of Fed Chair Powell

06:13 Historical Context of Interest Rates

10:07 Trump's Hypocrisy on Economic Policies

22:00 Inflation and the Fed's Response

29:43 Critique of Government Spending and Policies

32:47 Lowering the Voting Age in the UK

33:44 Debating the Voting Age

37:26 Historical Context of Voting Rights

44:51 Crypto Week and Legislation

46:17 Bitcoin and Stable Coins Analysis

51:55 Precious Metals Market Update

57:59 Conclusion and Call to Action

#Trump #InterestRates #VotingRights

Investors Bet Tariff Man Chickens Out Again - 1032

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 04:18:24 +0000

Peter Schiff examines the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy, critiques government spending bills, and emphasizes the urgency of investing in precious metals.

This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free ebook “Navigating Global Trade: 3 Insights for Leaders” at https://netsuite.com/gold

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the current state of the economy, focusing on the implications of recent trade deals and tariffs announced by the Trump administration. He highlights the detrimental effects of these tariffs on American consumers, arguing that they will lead to higher prices and increased inflation, ultimately hurting the very economy they aim to protect. Schiff also reflects on American exceptionalism, the significance of government policies on economic growth, and the troubling rise of socialist ideals in politics. Listeners will gain insight into the ongoing economic challenges and the misguided policies that threaten to undermine market stability. Tune in as Peter Schiff navigates through these pressing issues, providing his keen analysis and perspective on the future of the U.S. economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifM-zmNWQio

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

01:23 Reflecting on American Exceptionalism

03:59 Latino Wall Street Award

06:32 Trade Deals and Tariffs Analysis

19:22 Impact of Tariffs on the Economy

25:20 Commercial Break

27:36 Jobs Report and Economic Insights

29:34 Government Jobs and Economic Impact

30:01 Manufacturing and Tariffs

30:52 Unemployment Rates and Labor Market

31:43 The Budget Busting Bill

33:33 Tax Cuts and Economic Consequences

41:36 Democratic Policies and Socialism

51:41 Investment Strategies and Market Predictions

55:04 Podcast Conclusion and Future Plans

#tariffs #economicimpact #investorinsights

Trump Will Replace Powell With an Even Bigger Moron - Ep 1031

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 01:51:46 +0000

Peter Schiff delves into the Middle East conflict's impact on markets, the Fed's shortcomings, and the implications of a declining dollar on the economy.

00:00 Introduction and Apology for Absence

01:04 Cruise Ship Experience and Real Estate Summit

02:12 Unexpected Encounter with a Podcast Fan

03:09 Recent Global Events: Middle East Conflict

07:10 Financial Market Movements and Analysis

13:08 Precious Metals and Currency Trends

20:11 Federal Reserve and Economic Policies

25:13 Powell's Testimony and National Debt Concerns

37:39 Trump's Reaction to Fed's Rate Decisions

39:09 Powell's Stance on the Dollar and Inflation

43:13 Criticism of Budget Deficits and Fiscal Policy

44:14 Trump's Economic Claims and Hypocrisy

49:49 Fed's Role in Deficit Spending

53:22 Student Loans and Government's Role

01:01:15 Investment Advice on Gold and Silver

01:06:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Elon Musk Blows the Whistle - Ep 1030

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 03:11:07 +0000

Trump's economic policies, explores the weak labor market, and warns of impending inflationary pressures.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the intricate dynamics of the current economic landscape, spotlighting the disillusionment surrounding political promises and the fragility of the labor market. He scrutinizes the recent jobs data, revealing the underlying weaknesses that mainstream narratives often overlook. Schiff emphasizes the deceptive nature of government statistics, drawing connections between economic policies and their real-world implications for inflation and market stability. He also discusses the controversial role of figures like Elon Musk in the political arena, highlighting the tensions and fallout from their interactions with policymakers. As always, Schiff's insights challenge conventional wisdom, providing listeners with a stark reality check on the state of the economy and the precarious path ahead.

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📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksPeter Schiff dissects Elon Musk's critique of

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:55 Vacation and Current Events

01:38 Market and Economic Analysis

03:40 Jobs Data and Market Reactions

11:08 Manufacturing and Trade Deficit

20:21 Tariffs and Economic Impact

24:59 Precious Metals Market

32:24 Political Commentary and Predictions

33:16 Deregulation and Investment Strategies

33:54 Historical Context of Political Promises

34:31 Challenges in Implementing Spending Cuts

36:40 Elon Musk's Role and Disillusionment

39:13 Political Dynamics and Congressional Challenges

48:06 Elon Musk's Public Critique and Fallout

53:03 Economic Implications and Future Outlook

56:16 Conclusion and Call to Action

#ElonMusk #EconomicAnalysis #JobMarketTrends

Gold Bull In a Bitcoin Conference - Ep 1029

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 03:09:39 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses his experiences at the Bitcoin 2025 conference, recent market trends, and critiques various economic policies, emphasizing the importance of prudent investment strategies and skepticism toward Bitcoin's long-term viability.

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In this episode of the Peter Schiff Show podcast, Peter Schiff gives a detailed commentary on various market trends and economic policies. He analyzes the performance of stocks, gold, and Bitcoin during the previous month, noting significant market movements. Schiff provides his critical perspective on the recent Bitcoin Conference he attended in Las Vegas, emphasizing the irony that many attendees credit him for their Bitcoin investments despite his criticism of the cryptocurrency. He also critiques U.S. economic policies, particularly focusing on tariffs, government spending, and recent court rulings affecting trade. Additionally, Schiff discusses his ongoing podcast tour and upcoming public appearances, along with providing personal anecdotes about his family. He concludes the episode by urging listeners to subscribe to his YouTube channel.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the Peter Schiff Show

01:38 Market Overview: May Performance and Predictions

02:32 Gold and Bitcoin: Correlation and Market Movements

05:21 Tariffs and Trade Wars: Impact on Markets

12:56 Trump vs. Powell: The Fed's Independence

18:20 Upcoming Events and Personal Announcements

22:09 Big Beautiful Bill: Debunking the Myths

29:41 Bitcoin Conference Experience

30:06 Contrarian Voices at the Bitcoin Conference

30:42 Impressions of the Conference Organization

31:37 Bitcoin Treasury Companies and Market Dynamics

33:17 Unexpected Positive Reception

36:16 Debate and Michael Saylor's Speech

42:02 Bitcoin's Market Performance and Speculation

51:52 Final Thoughts and Personal Updates

#Bitcoin

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The Sell America Trade Gathers Momentum - Ep 1028

Mon, 26 May 2025 03:30:00 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses recent financial market turmoil, significant growth in precious metals, and critiques Trump's policies and actions.

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In the latest episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff provides an in-depth analysis of the recent turbulence in financial markets. Schiff discusses the significant rise in gold prices, which closed at its highest weekly price ever, while other precious metals like silver and platinum also saw a notable increase. He highlights the decline of the US dollar and reveals the consequences of tariff policies, emphasizing the need for listeners to consider precious metals and foreign equities as a hedge against impending economic challenges. Schiff also examines the Fitch downgrade of US government credit, linking it to unsustainable fiscal policies under both Trump and Biden administrations. Additionally, he scrutinizes the political and economic conflicts surrounding tariffs, privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and personal financial gains made by Trump during his presidency. Listeners are encouraged to stay in tune for more insights and remain proactive in safeguarding their financial portfolios.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

02:48 Market Recap and Gold's Performance

05:57 US Dollar and Treasury Market Analysis

11:29 Impact of US Credit Downgrade

18:44 US Treasuries and Inflation

23:46 Trump's Economic Policies and Tariffs

40:10 Currency Dynamics and the Weak Dollar

42:34 Trump's Economic Policies and Wall Street Influence

45:25 Impact of Tariffs on the US Economy

46:29 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Privatization

52:18 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights

54:26 Upcoming Conferences and Events

57:22 Trump's Use of Presidency for Personal Gain

01:12:03 Final Thoughts

#gold #silver #bitcoin

Trade Truce Puts Budget Deficits In Focus - Ep 1027

Fri, 16 May 2025 02:50:00 +0000

Peter Schiff analyzes the stock market relief rally, criticizes Trump's trade policies and tariffs, and argues that the new tax bill and economic issues are not being properly addressed.

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Peter Schiff discusses the recent relief rally in stock markets following a temporary truce in the trade war, highlighting the role of President Trump's policies in both creating and defusing market tensions. He criticizes the Trump administration’s handling of tariffs and trade deficits, predicting that the U.S. economy is weaker than expected and will face significant challenges due to de-dollarization and rising interest rates. Schiff also scrutinizes the latest tax bill, arguing it fails to address core issues like the inefficiencies of the FDA and misaligned incentives in healthcare. He warns that temporary market gains are misleading and that fundamental economic vulnerabilities remain unaddressed.

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Chapters:

00:00 Market Relief Rally Amid Trade War Truce

02:27 Impact of Tariffs on the Economy

05:05 De-dollarization and Global Trade Dynamics

07:15 Bond Market Vulnerabilities

11:24 Bitcoin and Risk Assets Analysis

16:17 Gold and Silver Market Insights

21:41 Upcoming Events and Personal Announcements

29:44 Critique of FDA Regulations

33:38 The Skin Cancer Epidemic in America

34:40 The FDA and Sunscreen Regulations

36:01 The Problem with Employer-Based Health Insurance

38:20 The True Cost of Health Insurance

45:11 Trump's Big Beautiful Bill

46:34 The Carried Interest Loophole

50:48 The Car Loan Tax Deduction Debate

01:01:15 The Future of the US Economy

01:02:00 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#tradewar #tariffs #trump

Another Fake Trump Trade Win - Ep 1026

Tue, 13 May 2025 02:02:00 +0000

Peter Schiff rebukes Wall Street's false triumph over a China trade deal, dissects Trump's failed tariffs, and criticizes misguided drug pricing policies and questionable gifts from foreign nations.

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff critiques the perceived celebration on Wall Street over a supposed trade deal with China, which he calls 'fake news.' He argues that rather than achieving a deal, President Trump merely rolled back the heavy tariffs he had initially imposed, with no substantial progress or concessions from China. Schiff contends that Trump's moves were a strategic surrender rather than a negotiation victory and attributes market reactions, such as stock rallies and gold price drops, to a relief from avoided economic damages. Schiff also criticizes Trump's populist actions such as advocating for drug price controls and accepting a questionable $400 million jet from Qatar. Schiff concludes by discussing the implications for markets and reiterates his advice on investing in gold and foreign currencies to protect against economic instability.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction: Wall Street Celebrates Fake Trade Deal

02:50 Trump's Tariff War: The Real Story

03:35 The Geneva Meeting: A Surrender in Disguise

05:34 The Illusion of Victory: Trump's PR Spin

17:44 Market Reactions: Stocks, Gold, and the Dollar

25:38 The Bigger Picture: Economic Implications

34:58 Moving Away from US Dollars

35:39 Trump's Price Controls on Prescription Drugs

40:10 The FDA and Drug Development Costs

55:29 Trump's $400 Million Jet from Qatar

01:05:07 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#Trump #Tariffs #China

Trump's Tariffs Will Make China Great Again - Ep 1025

Thu, 08 May 2025 03:05:00 +0000

Peter Schiff analyzes the Federal Reserve's unchanged rates, critiques Trump's economic claims, and predicts the fallout from current trade policies.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff critically analyzes the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, highlighting Powell's inconsistent views on inflation expectations and economic conditions. Schiff also discusses President Trump’s silence on Powell's statements and questions the efficacy of trade talks with China, predicting a looming economic disappointment. He continues by scrutinizing Trump's contradictory claims regarding improving trade deficits and the misguided reliance on tariffs. Schiff emphasizes the inevitable economic consequences of current policies and suggests strategic financial adjustments, such as investing in foreign currencies and gold, to brace for impending stagflation and market instability. As always, Schiff echoes his critical stance on governmental and economic mismanagement while providing expert financial advice to his listeners.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

01:19 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision

02:07 Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment

02:52 President Trump's Silence on Powell

03:39 Powell's Press Conference Highlights

04:01 Inflation Expectations and Economic Outlook

07:06 Stagflation Risks and Fed's Dilemma

11:38 Powell's Q&A Session Insights

15:46 Gold and Dollar Market Movements

23:20 China Trade Talks and Economic Implications

25:46 China's Economic Strategy and US Relations

32:28 Potential US Treasury Default and Economic Risks

36:38 Who Pays Tariffs?

37:53 The Secretary of the Treasury's Dilemma

40:36 Trump's Economic Claims

43:00 Deficit Spending and Government Cuts

47:56 Tariff Impact on Small Businesses

53:54 Trump's Tariff on Movies

57:49 Warren Buffett's Strategic Moves

01:00:35 Investing in Foreign Markets

01:02:31 Gold and Silver Investment Opportunities

01:02:57 Gold Mining Stocks Analysis

01:04:26 Silver's Potential Upside

01:05:15 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#Tariffs #Trump #China

Stocks Soar on Trade War De-Escalation Hopes - Ep 1024

Sat, 03 May 2025 01:02:00 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques the April stock market rally, U.S.-China trade war optimism, misleading economic indicators, and the ethical implications of the 'Executive Branch' social club.

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Peter Schiff scrutinizes the apparent rebound in the stock market during April, questioning the sustainability of the rally amidst underlying economic weaknesses. Peter dives deep into the illusory optimism fueled by hopes of trade war de-escalation, explaining why he believes the recent market surge is built on unfounded optimism. He further discusses intricacies of the U.S.-China tariff battle, debunking the administration’s claims about the benefits of a strong dollar and pointing out the inconsistencies in trade policies. Additionally, Peter sheds light on the controversial implications of the Trump administration's strategies, including the ethical questions surrounding the newly established 'Executive Branch' social club. Stay tuned as Peter Schiff provides an unfiltered take on our economic reality and calls out misleading governmental narratives.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

01:00 Stock Market Rebound Analysis

02:28 Trade War and Tariff Impacts

04:04 China's Tariff Reductions and U.S. Response

09:25 Dollar Policy and Trade Deficits

11:35 Economic Data and Market Reactions

28:29 Job Market Insights and Government Reports

36:30 Construction Spending and Economic Outlook

36:52 Manufacturing and GDP Analysis

38:11 Trump's Economic Claims and Popularity

41:06 Impact of Tariffs on Prices and Economy

44:22 Trade Deficit and Consumer Confidence

53:55 Canadian Elections and Tariff Effects

57:12 Trump's Executive Branch Club Controversy

01:06:13 Podcast Conclusion and Personal Anecdotes

#tariffs #Trump #GDP

America’s Trade Problems Are Made in the U.S.A. - Ep 2023

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 03:28:38 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques Trump's market manipulations, discusses gold and Bitcoin's movements, and highlights economic weaknesses, suggesting gold mining stocks as a superior investment strategy.

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Peter Schiff discusses the market's recent rally as a bear market rally and critiques former President Donald Trump's offhand comments about Jerome Powell's rate policies. Schiff argues that Trump's administration manipulated markets with strategic statements, but didn't address the fundamental economic issues, like the hollowing out of America's manufacturing base. Schiff also discusses gold's surge to a near all-time high, contrasting it with Bitcoin's performance. He criticizes the U.S. focus on becoming a crypto superpower at the expense of industrialization. Schiff concludes with commentary on rejected mortgage refinancing applications and existing home sales reflecting economic weakness, promoting gold and gold mining stocks as the best investment strategy.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:56 Market Turnaround Analysis

01:53 Trump's Influence on the Market

02:54 Gold and Dollar Movements

06:00 Fed's Political Influence

20:13 Gold Mining Stocks Performance

27:37 Bitcoin and Crypto Market

29:40 Trump's Approval Ratings and Economic Promises

31:41 Economic Trends Under Trump

31:59 Media's Role in Economic Perception

32:26 Impact of Tariffs on the Economy

33:39 Public Reaction to Economic Policies

34:42 Trade Deficits and Blame Game

36:41 Misconceptions About Tariffs

38:48 Global Trade and Economic Realities

42:58 Trump's Economic Strategies and Their Flaws

45:07 Recession and Economic Indicators

54:48 Conclusion and Personal Notes

Gold’s Rise Warns of Dollar’s Demise - Ep 1022

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 03:30:40 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses record gold highs, critiques media's focus on Bitcoin, and warns of impending economic crisis exacerbated by tariffs and undervaluation of gold stocks.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter discusses the significant rise in gold prices, reaching new record highs and experiencing unprecedented one-day increases. He criticizes mainstream financial media, particularly CNBC, for ignoring the surge in gold prices and instead focusing on Bitcoin. Peter correlates the current economic scenario with the 2008 housing bubble, where ignorance of underlying issues led to a financial crisis. He argues that Trump’s policies, such as tariffs, have contributed to economic instability. Peter also highlights the undervaluation of gold mining stocks compared to the rising prices of gold. He emphasizes the broader implications of a weakening US dollar, including higher consumer prices and ineffective future Fed policies. Schiff cautions about a forthcoming financial crisis exacerbated by current economic missteps and the media's dismissal of gold's significance.

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Chapters:

00:00 Gold's Record-Breaking Week

02:20 Gold's Historical Context and Market Reactions

05:28 Media's Ignorance and Bitcoin Comparison

13:01 The Dollar's Decline and Economic Implications

20:11 Investment Strategies and Gold Mining Stocks

31:27 Foreign Investments and Market Dynamics

35:23 Understanding De-dollarization

35:53 Foreign Debt Dynamics

36:50 Impact of De-dollarization on the Dollar

37:18 Misconceptions About Trade and the US Economy

38:24 China's Economic Position

39:06 The Reality of American Consumers

39:52 China's Trade Strategy

43:38 Global Trade Without the US

44:49 Critique of US Trade Policies

46:07 The Imbalance in Economies

47:40 Regulation and Competitiveness

49:39 Political Narratives and Trade Deficits

54:11 Bitcoin and Economic Predictions

57:50 The Role of Central Banks

01:01:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#gold #bitcoin #inflation

The US Already Lost the Trade War - Ep 1021

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 00:47:00 +0000

Peter Schiff dives into the wild financial markets, tariff drama, trade deficits, and golden opportunities.

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Peter Schiff discusses the recent turmoil in the financial markets, attributing it to the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration. Schiff criticizes the tariffs, asserting that they hurt the U.S. economy, caused the dollar and bond markets to crash, and ultimately led to significant market volatility. He contends that Trump's tariffs were a misguided attempt to reduce trade deficits and that they contradicted basic economic principles. Schiff outlines how foreign investors fleeing U.S. assets and central banks favoring gold over dollars indicate a shift away from U.S. economic dominance. He emphasizes the importance of investing in gold mining stocks, anticipating substantial growth as the economic crisis unfolds.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

02:38 Market Recap: A Wild Week

05:43 Tariffs and Trade Wars

08:51 Trump's Negotiation Tactics

14:58 Impact on the US Economy

18:42 Global Reactions and Consequences

26:53 Currency and Market Movements

35:41 Economic Consequences of Tariffs

36:38 Impact on American Companies

38:11 Global Financial Crisis Predictions

42:40 Gold and Bitcoin Market Analysis

45:30 Investment Strategies in Gold Stocks

51:34 The Future of the US Dollar and Global Economy

01:03:04 Final Thoughts and Investment Advice

#finance #investing #gold

April Fool's Day Came Late - Ep 1020

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 23:28:30 +0000

Trump’s tariffs will hurt U.S. consumers and industries, leading to higher prices, fewer imports, and potential recession, while discussing their legality.

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Peter Schiff discusses the steep decline in the stock market following President Trump's announcement of tariffs, with a focus on how these tariffs will negatively impact the U.S. economy. The host argues that, contrary to Trump's claims, the tariffs will not rejuvenate American industries and will instead lead to higher prices for consumers, fewer imports, and potential recession. The tariffs are considered illegal and unconstitutional by the host, who explains that tariffs, historically, have been a burden on the middle class and poor. The host also mentions China's retaliatory tariffs and the broader implications on global trade and economic stability.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction: The High Stakes of Trading

00:57 Market Meltdown: The Impact of Tariffs

03:39 Stock Market Analysis: Winners and Losers

05:15 The Global Trade War: China's Retaliation

08:01 The Economics of Tariffs: Winners and Losers

08:52 The Shoe Industry: A Case Study

11:41 The Bigger Picture: US Consumption and Production

25:53 The Constitutional Debate on Tariffs

29:49 Trump's Tariff Strategy: A Closer Look

35:44 Global Trade Deficits and Tariffs

36:20 Scapegoating Immigrants and Trade Policies

37:07 Historical Context of Tariffs and Taxes

40:13 The Populist Movement and Income Tax

43:59 Impact of Tariffs on the Middle Class

47:16 Economic Consequences of Tariffs

52:13 Global Recession and Market Reactions

57:32 China's Role and Global Supply Chains

01:01:54 Investment Strategies and Economic Predictions

01:05:27 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#tariffs #trump #stocks

The Not So Secret Word Is Stagflation - Ep 1019

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 02:58:00 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses market sell-offs, stagflation, tariffs, gold vs. Bitcoin performance, Fed policies, economic shifts, government inefficiencies, and his legal battle over his bank's closure.

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Peter Schiff discusses recent stock market sell-offs, the impact of economic data pointing to stagflation, and the effects of tariffs. He highlights the divergences between gold and Bitcoin performances, emphasizing gold’s bullish trend and Bitcoin’s decline. Schiff explains the complications of stagflation for the Federal Reserve, economic repercussions of ongoing tariffs, and potential shifts in financial markets. He also touches on Trump's potential policy impacts and the inefficacies within government programs and unions. Schiff concludes with insights into his legal battle over his bank’s closure.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:54 Personal Update and Podcast Delay

03:00 Stock Market Analysis

05:22 Bitcoin vs. Gold

14:16 Economic Data and Stagflation

27:47 Tariffs and Market Impact

32:49 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact

33:39 Critique of Trump's Economic Advisors

34:32 Globalization and Its Reversal

35:19 Inflation and Domestic Money Supply

37:54 Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

39:26 Impact of Car Tariffs

44:17 Public Sector Unions and Government Spending

52:01 Bitcoin and Government Financial Policies

55:34 Personal Legal Battle and AI Analysis

01:01:31 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#Stagflation #Silver #Bitcoin

Powell Shrugs off Evidence of Rising Inflation - Ep 1018

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 04:23:30 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses the Fed's unchanged interest rates, rising inflation, gold prices signaling monetary issues, and promotes gold and silver investments.

Peter Schiff discusses the recent FOMC announcement on interest rates remaining unchanged and critiques the Fed's dovish stance amid rising inflation. Schiff highlights the Fed's plan to slow quantitative tightening, rising gold prices as a warning of loose monetary policy, and calls for higher interest rates. He criticizes the Fed's handling of inflation expectations and the economic composition of job growth. Schiff also promotes gold and silver investments as protection against inflation.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:20 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Announcement

02:15 Discussion on Quantitative Tightening

05:59 Gold Prices and Market Signals

12:27 Inflation Concerns and Monetary Policy

19:16 Commercial Break and Sponsor Message

20:36 Special Offers on Gold and Silver

26:38 Analysis of Tariffs and Inflation

30:38 Fed's Shift in Inflation Expectations

31:14 Powell's Dismissal of Five-Year Inflation Concerns

32:23 Consumer Sentiment and Price Levels

33:49 Fed's Inflation Averaging Policy

38:30 Government Jobs vs. Private Sector Jobs

41:46 US National Debt and Borrowing Challenges

49:18 Critique of Fed's Independence and Policy

54:45 Investment Advice and Market Trends

#FederalReserve #inflation #gold

Instead of Treasuries, Investors Are Buying Foreign Stocks - Ep 1017

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 02:58:13 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses market rallies, gold-silver divergence, investment strategies, inflation impacts, consumer sentiment, and criticizes U.S. monetary policies and government interventions.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter discusses the recent stock market rally and the historic rise in gold prices, highlighting the significant divergence between gold and silver performance. He advises investors to focus on precious metals, particularly silver, and gold mining stocks. Peter critiques the modern investment tendencies of young people towards cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, arguing for the wisdom of following central bankers who are turning to gold. He also delves into the latest inflation data and its market impact, along with a strong critique of government policies and their consequences on the economy. Additionally, Peter shares a recent FOIA production from his lawsuits against the government, revealing potential misconduct by IRS agents.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

01:34 Gold and Silver Market Analysis

05:53 Investment Strategies and Insider Insights

17:52 Inflation and Economic Indicators

20:44 Consumer Sentiment and Political Commentary

34:08 Tech Investment Trends and Market Shifts

35:16 Performance of Various Funds in 2023

40:20 Contrarian Indicators and Market Predictions

44:30 Debate on SEC and FDIC

50:33 Legal Battles and Government Transparency

01:03:39 Conclusion and Call to Action

#Finance #StockMarket #Investments

The Fed Can’t Save the Market or the Economy - Ep 1016

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 03:54:50 +0000

Peter discusses market drops, tariffs, AI and crypto trends, and recommends considering gold stocks and foreign markets over U.S. due to changing economic conditions.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter discusses his perspective on recent market volatility, the implications of tariff changes announced by Trump, and the ongoing shifts in key financial assets. He highlights significant market drops, including a thousand-point dip in the Dow and a 30% decline in Bitcoin since late January. Peter sheds light on the potential 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and shares his concerns about the Trump administration's economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel. He criticizes the government's regulatory bodies and outlines the impact of weakening US dollar on global investments. Additionally, Peter emphasizes the importance of gold stocks as a hedge and predicts continued outperformance of foreign markets and commodities.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

02:14 Stock Market Analysis

03:18 Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

05:58 Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin Trends

09:40 Gold and Foreign Markets

20:12 Commercial Break

21:35 Japanese Rate Hike and Global Impact

31:35 Impact of Closing the US-Canada Border

32:56 Canada's Alternative Markets

33:37 American Consumers and Tariffs

33:58 Personal Anecdote: Football Manufacturing

35:46 Challenges of Rebuilding American Manufacturing

37:07 Critique of Government Spending and Regulation

39:38 The Role of the SEC and Financial Regulation

43:12 Historical Perspective on Market Crashes

50:04 The Future of the US Economy

56:27 Investment Advice and Conclusion

#stockmarket #cryptocurrency #inflation

US Stocks and Dollar Tank. What’s Next? - Ep 1015

Sat, 08 Mar 2025 03:56:38 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses market drops, tariff impacts, Trump's Bitcoin reserve, and advocates for foreign stocks and gold investments.

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In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter analyzes a turbulent week in financial markets, highlighting significant declines across major US indices such as the Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. He discusses the impact of weak economic data, rising bond yields, and currency movements, particularly in Germany and Japan. Peter also critiques the Trump administration's tariff policies and their misconceptions, emphasizing that tariffs harm American consumers rather than foreign economies. Additionally, he delves into the controversial establishment of a US Bitcoin reserve, interpreting it as a non-committal move. Peter concludes by advising listeners to invest in foreign markets, precious metals, and emerging markets for better returns.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:19 Market Overview and Financial Insights

02:56 Stock Market Performance Analysis

05:56 Global Economic Trends and Predictions

12:31 Investment Strategies and Recommendations

20:49 Jobs Data and Economic Indicators

27:31 Tariffs and Cryptocurrency Discussion

34:25 Impact of Tariffs on Canadian and US Economies

34:59 Misconceptions About Tariffs and Economic Strength

36:11 The Real Cost of Tariffs on American Consumers

38:50 Challenges in Reviving US Manufacturing

40:50 Political and Economic Realities of Tariffs

46:32 Crypto Manipulation and Insider Trading

50:19 Trump's Bitcoin Reserve Announcement

55:48 Economic Predictions and Investment Advice

01:03:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#Bitcoin #Gold #Trump

Trump’s Crypto Pump - Ep 1014

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 03:30:04 +0000

Peter Schiff exposes crypto market manipulations by Trump's team, critiques Social Security as a Ponzi scheme, and analyzes recent concerning economic data. #trump #bitcoin #crypto

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Episode Overview

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter dives into the recent surge in the cryptocurrency market and the alleged manipulation stemming from a post on Donald Trump's Truth Social account. He scrutinizes the drama surrounding Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, and other altcoins, highlighting strategic timing and insider trading. Peter also discusses the anticipated, but non-existent, establishment of a US crypto reserve and the potential implications for the market. Shifting focus, Peter touches on various economic updates, including the massive US trade deficit, unemployment claims, GDP projections, and the real estate bear market. Furthermore, he criticizes the Social Security system, labeling it as a Ponzi scheme, while urging for major reforms. To cap it off, Peter reflects on his experience with media manipulation and his ongoing legal battles concerning his bank.

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Chapters / Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:58 Crypto Market Analysis

03:22 Trump's Crypto Reserve Announcement

09:28 Critique of Government Involvement in Crypto

22:04 Economic Data and Trade Deficit

33:28 Job Market and Unemployment Concerns

35:21 Housing Market Woes

35:51 Manufacturing and Economic Indicators

36:48 Personal Income and Spending

37:27 Inflation and the Fed's Dilemma

38:38 Zelensky's Visit and Media Critique

43:31 Trump's Budget Ambitions

45:56 Golden Visas and Tax Exemptions

49:26 Joe Rogan and Elon Musk on Media and Social Security

01:03:49 Gold and Silver Market Update

01:05:37 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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The Trump Crypto Bubble Already Burst - Ep 1013

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 04:36:55 +0000

Peter Schiff covers market trends, inflation fears, Trump’s tariffs, crypto decline, and promotes his wife's music on Spotify.

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Peter Schiff discusses the impact of stagflation on the US economy, significant market changes, and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. He highlights falling consumer confidence, the influence of tariffs, and potential moves in gold and oil prices. Schiff also critiques Federal Reserve policies and addresses issues in the US automotive and trade industries. Lastly, he reflects on personal memories and shares updates on his and his wife's recent projects.

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Chapters:

00:00 Market Overview

01:10 US Treasury Market Rally

01:52 Stagflation Concerns

02:41 Consumer Confidence and Inflation

04:33 Oil Prices and Economic Slowdown

07:04 Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis

14:17 Gold Market Insights

21:36 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Strategy

27:44 Personal Announcements and Reflections

30:42 Promoting My Wife's Music

31:21 Upcoming Song Release

35:06 Silver Market Update

36:06 Trade and Tariffs Discussion

40:26 Understanding VAT and Tariffs

53:36 Critique of Government Spending

57:44 Conclusion

#Bitcoin #Gold #Crypto

Markets Tank as Stagflation Rears its Head - Ep 1012

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 03:35:14 +0000

Markets dropped sharply; Dow down 750 pts, S&P 1.7%, Nasdaq 2.2%. Rise in stagflation feared, weak economic data, high inflation. Gold stocks hit, despite gold's gains. Japanese inflation surge discussed. Remembering Irwin Schiff.

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Peter provides a comprehensive analysis of the recent downturn in the U.S. stock markets, with notable losses across major indexes due to a Friday rout. He highlights the significant declines in the Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ, and particularly the Russell 2000, which has entered correction territory. Peter explains the broader implications of rising inflation expectations and deteriorating consumer confidence, the impact on existing home sales, and the worrying data from the PMI reports. He discusses the Federal Reserve's lack of strategy for stagflation and critiques their handling of inflation expectations. The episode also covers international economic concerns, including rising Japanese inflation and its effects on global markets. Peter emphasizes the potential of gold stocks despite recent declines and encourages investment in Euro Pacific's gold fund, detailing the strong earnings reports from gold mining companies. The segment concludes with a poignant tribute to his father, Irwin Schiff, highlighting his controversial stance on income tax enforcement and offering insights from Irwin's speeches and writings.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:59 Stock Market Performance Analysis

03:01 Impact on Gold Stocks

04:11 Stagflation Concerns and Fed's Response

06:30 Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

11:58 Economic Data and Market Reactions

17:32 Japanese Inflation and Global Implications

25:06 Gold Stocks Performance and Investment Advice

35:22 Election Fever in Germany

36:26 Italy's Remodeling Program: A Case of Government Waste

39:31 Germany's Political Landscape: A Deep Dive

50:52 Remembering Irwin Schiff: A Personal Tribute

56:21 The Federal Income Tax Debate

01:04:23 Closing Thoughts and Market Predictions

#StockMarket #Inflation #Stagflation

You Can't Have Government Programs Without Waste, Fraud, and Abuse - Ep 1011

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 05:33:23 +0000

Analysis of government efforts to eliminate wasteful spending and reduce national debt, examining past reforms, challenges, and future expectations. #Trump #Musk #DOGE

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In this episode, Peter Schiff discusses the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), comparing it to Ronald Reagan's Grace Commission and deliberates on its ability to make budget cuts. He addresses issues such as waste, fraud, and abuse in government programs, highlighting problems like social security payouts to deceased individuals. Schiff emphasizes the inefficiency and abuse inherent in government operations and argues for the necessity of minimizing government size to reduce waste. He touches on the worsening debt-to-GDP ratio, the potential economic consequences of Donald Trump's policies, and the importance of purchasing gold and gold stocks amidst rising inflation and a weakening dollar. Finally, he contemplates the implications of a potential audit of the U.S. gold reserves in Fort Knox.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the Podcast

01:54 Historical Context: Reagan and Trump

03:42 Doge's Current Role and Achievements

04:26 Challenges and Limitations of Doge

07:26 Social Security Fraud Issues

12:26 Economic Struggles and Government Inefficiencies

19:09 Government Programs: Inefficiency and Abuse

23:45 Moral Hazard and Government Subsidies

30:39 Impact of Fatherless Households

31:27 Government's Role in Family Dynamics

36:05 Statistics on Fatherless Households

37:15 Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy

44:22 Trump's Economic Claims

48:08 Gold Reserves and Economic Implications

55:48 Investment Opportunities in Gold

01:00:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Honor Washington's Birthday, the Father of Our Republic - Ep 1010

Mon, 17 Feb 2025 03:00:35 +0000

Peter Schiff critiques 'Presidents' Day,' markets, inflation, economic data, gold, silver, and government's fiscal mismanagement.

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Peter Schiff opens the episode by discussing the misnomer of 'President's Day' and advocating for the correct recognition of Washington's Birthday. He explains the holiday's legal history and criticizes the commercialization of the day. Peter then transitions to recent economic data, including higher-than-expected producer and consumer price inflation (PPI and CPI) and disappointing retail sales. He argues that these numbers indicate rising inflation contrary to the Federal Reserve's targets. Schiff delves into recent gold and silver market movements, attributing fluctuations to economic reports and trader behavior. He advises listeners on investment strategies, emphasizing the purchase of physical metals ahead of potential tariffs. He also critiques U.S. government spending, highlighting surging interest payments on national debt and advocating for significant fiscal reforms, including reducing military expenditures and balancing the budget through substantial cuts. Schiff stresses the need for a shift from a consumption-based economy to a production-based one, suggesting that President Trump could enforce these changes by refusing to sign any debt ceiling increases.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

00:58 NFL Football and Sunday Night Podcasts

01:23 Washington's Birthday vs. President's Day

06:03 The Legacy of George Washington

09:16 Republic vs. Democracy

18:13 Economic Data and Market Reactions

24:33 Silver and Gold Market Dynamics

26:37 Gold Mining Stocks and Earnings

30:48 Impact of Tariffs on Gold and Silver

35:57 US Budget Deficit and Fiscal Policy

41:03 Trump's Potential Role in Budget Cuts

50:01 Conclusion and Investment Advice

#EconomicData #GoldPrices #Inflation

Powell Fiddles While Inflation Burns - 1009

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 03:25:00 +0000

Gold reaches record highs, silver follows. Market reactions, inflation concerns, Fed's policies, and economic predictions.

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Peter Schiff discusses the adverse day for inflation and the Federal Reserve but an excellent day for gold and gold stocks. Schiff critiques the Fed's premature halting of rate hikes, emphasizing how the latest CPI report exceeded expectations and its implications on future trends. He highlights the underreporting of these significant inflation figures by financial media and critiques Jerome Powell's stance on inflation during a House committee hearing. Additionally, Schiff underscores how the ongoing policies and political dynamics, including misplaced blame between parties, misrepresent the underlying economic issues. He also discusses the market reactions, including the stock and bond markets' movements, and delves deeper into the positive outlook for gold stocks, particularly with Barrick Gold's earnings exceeding expectations. Schiff concludes by encouraging investors to consider gold and gold stocks amidst the current economic trends.

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Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Woes and Federal Reserve's Missteps

02:44 Media's Downplay and Fed's Testimony

03:40 Analyzing the Inflation Data

09:17 Political Blame Game

13:14 Critique of Media and Political Polarization

17:42 Market Reactions and Predictions

23:08 Gold and Gold Stocks Performance

32:14 Market Optimism and Fund Performance

33:46 Gold Fund's Promising Future

34:13 Investment Advice and Risk Tolerance

37:30 Commodity Prices and Inflation Concerns

39:39 Tariffs and Economic Impact

42:35 Federal Reserve and Congressional Hearings

47:37 Debt Crisis and Economic Warnings

52:42 Gold Revaluation and Inflation

58:03 Final Investment Recommendations

59:38 Closing Remarks and Call to Action

#inflation #goldstocks #economicforecast

Stagflation: The Fed's Worst Nightmare Is Coming True - Ep 1008

Sat, 08 Feb 2025 02:08:00 +0000

Gold reaches record highs amid market reactions, stalled tariffs, inflation concerns, Fed policies, and economic outlook.

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Peter Schiff dives deep into the latest economic trends and market dynamics. He covers the surge in gold prices, reaching new record highs, and revisits the recently averted trade war involving U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. He criticizes the portrayal of tariffs as a tax on foreign countries, highlighting their impact on American consumers. Peter argues that Trump's strategy on tariffs shows a lack of conviction and discusses the broader implications of these policies on the stock market. Furthermore, Peter delves into the looming threat of stagflation, underscored by weak job growth and rising inflation expectations, while critiquing the Federal Reserve's lack of contingency plans for such a scenario. He also touches upon Japan's financial crisis potential and its possible repercussions for the U.S. economy. Lastly, Peter criticizes the idea of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund and emphasizes the importance of investing in gold amidst these economic uncertainties.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Previous Podcast Recap

01:29 Trade War Developments and Tariff Implications

05:59 China's Retaliation and Economic Impact

09:08 Tariffs vs. Income Taxes: A Critical Analysis

15:39 Inflation and Economic Data Insights

31:15 Inflation Expectations: Democrats vs. Republicans

33:17 Gold's Reaction to Inflation News

39:03 Consumer Credit and Economic Woes

45:59 Japan's Financial Crisis and Global Impact

49:47 The Sovereign Wealth Fund Debate

57:22 Gold Investment Opportunities

58:29 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#tradewar #goldprice #inflation

Tariffs Harm Most the Nations That Impose Them - Ep 1007

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 02:51:42 +0000

Trump imposes tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. Market turmoil, stock drops, rising dollar, higher consumer prices, and economic impacts.

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In this episode, Peter Schiff breaks down the significant impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on the global markets and American consumers. Peter discusses the drastic fall in stock markets, with the Dow down nearly 600 points, and the surge in the dollar index. He explains how the tariffs are fundamentally taxes on Americans rather than on Mexican or Canadian businesses. Highlighting the effects on various sectors, particularly avocados and maple syrup imports, Peter underscores that the burden of these tariffs will ultimately fall on American consumers as prices rise across the board. He also delves into the broader economic implications, arguing that these tariffs could lead to higher consumer costs, weakened economic growth, and a potential recession. Throughout the episode, Peter emphasizes the shortsightedness of the belief that tariffs will benefit the U.S. economy and criticizes the lack of economic understanding among currency traders and the public.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Impact of Trump's Tariffs

02:10 Global Currency Reactions and Economic Misconceptions

04:57 The Real Cost of Tariffs on American Consumers

08:14 Avocado and Maple Syrup: Case Studies in Tariff Impact

11:21 The Flawed Logic of Trade Wars

15:11 Comparative Advantage and Trade Basics

18:55 The Apple and Orange Farmer Analogy

23:05 The Consequences of High Tariffs

28:47 Potential Economic Collapse from Import Restrictions

33:56 Impact of High Tariffs on America

34:45 Global Repercussions of US Tariffs

38:44 Economic Data and Consumer Spending

40:57 Canadian Gold Mining Boom

46:33 Consequences of Tariffs on Goods

51:28 Gold and Silver Investment Tips

58:44 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights

01:01:32 Final Thoughts and Recommendations

#tariffs #tradewar #trump

Fed Ignores Data It Claims to Depend On - Ep 1006

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 00:26:00 +0000

Fed pauses rate cuts; market reactions, language tweaks on inflation, Trump's demand for rate cut, and crypto discussion.

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Peter Schiff discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts and its implications for the economy. He scrutinizes changes in the Fed's language on inflation and the market's reactions. Peter questions Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments and the Fed's accountability on inflation. He addresses President Trump's demands regarding rate cuts tied to oil prices, criticizes the Fed's stance on tariffs and policy impact, and highlights concerning economic data such as the merchandise trade deficit. Peter explores the historical context of tariffs, their impact on economic growth, and the potential consequences of current trade policies. He closes by emphasizing the persistent issues with the Fed's monetary policy and the inflationary pressures facing the economy.

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Chapters:

00:00 Fed Reserve's Rate Pause Announcement

01:59 Market Reactions and Powell's Clarifications

05:20 Trump's Influence and Fed's Response

07:37 Fed's Stance on Tariffs and Policy Impact

11:16 Monetary Policy and Inflation Concerns

15:39 Powell's Q&A Session Highlights

23:38 Crypto and Banking Regulations

28:45 Bitcoin and Wealth Effect

30:42 Economic Data and Trade Deficit

33:58 Impact of Tariffs on Economy

42:18 Historical Perspective on Tariffs

54:20 Conclusion and Market Updates

FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket

The Consensus Trades Are About to Unravel - Ep 1005

Sat, 25 Jan 2025 00:15:54 +0000

U.S. markets rise amid AI investments. Dollar drops, gold hits highs. Trump critiques, $500B AI boost, Japan's inflation, Fed's rate policies.

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Peter Schiff examines the first trading week under President Trump's second term, noting market performance, a joint venture announcement in the tech industry, and a significant decline in the dollar index. He delves into the implications of a $500 billion AI investment, arguing it may strain short-term economic resources. Peter also highlights rising trends in gold and silver prices, advising investment in silver as a potential 'steal.' He provides his perspective on the structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy, emphasizing unsustainable debt levels and imbalances in the global market. Schiff predicts higher future interest rates and critiques Trump’s economic policies, including his stance on tariffs and defense spending. He further discusses the implications of Japan's recent interest rate hike, the unsustainable U.S. trade deficit, and the potential long-term impact of inflated stock market valuations. Schiff concludes with a critical look at Trump's approach to crypto assets and his overall economic strategy.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

01:56 AI Investment and Economic Impact

04:49 Gold and Silver Market Analysis

11:27 US Stock Market Bubble

19:14 Japan's Economic Shift

27:02 Trump's Economic Policies and Inflation

33:02 Debunking Trump's Trade Deal Claims

33:50 The Reality of Tariffs and Negotiation Tactics

35:19 Economic Indicators: Bankruptcies and Credit Card Debt

38:23 Trump's Misunderstanding of Interest Rates

39:58 Oil Prices and Production Dilemmas

42:54 Trump's Crypto Strategy: A Political Play

48:59 The Illusion of a Productive Economy

50:16 The Real Trade Relationship with China

53:10 Military Spending and Economic Consequences

01:00:37 Conclusion and Investment Advice

EconomicOutlook #AIInvestment #GoldMarketAnalysis

Will Trump Be a Meme President? - Ep 1004

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 02:45:39 +0000

Trump's return to office, Biden's preemptive pardons, Trump and Melania meme coins controversy, tech industry investment, drug policy critique, and economic analysis.

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Peter Schiff provides an in-depth analysis of Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office as the 47th President of the United States. He critiques former President Joe Biden's recent preemptive pardons, which included pardons for his family and members of Congress connected to the January 6th committee, citing it as an abuse of the pardon system. Schiff discusses potential investigations into these pardoned individuals and examines the implications for the Trump presidency, including Trump's recent meme coin launch, executive orders, and immediate actions. He also addresses the broader impact of these political shifts on economic policies, touching on topics like tariffs, federal hiring freezes, and the supposed 'new golden age' of America.

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Chapters:

00:00 Trump's Return to the Oval Office

01:46 Controversial Preemptive Pardons

06:39 Trump's Meme Coin Controversy

18:06 Trump's Tech Industry Ventures

22:12 Trump's Economic Policies and Executive Orders

29:52 State and Local Government Hiring

31:59 Trump's Executive Orders

34:03 The War on Drugs

45:11 Tariffs and Economic Policies

57:33 Podcast Conclusion

#DonaldTrump #ExecutiveOrders #USPolitics

Wall Street Celebrates Low Inflation as Prices Soar - Ep 1003

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 06:10:00 +0000

** Audio Fixed at 10:00 **

Biden’s farewell, Trump’s policies, market rally, inflation, commodity prices, and economic predictions.

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Peter Schiff returns to his studio in Puerto Rico to cover a range of topics in this podcast. He reacts to Joe Biden's farewell address, discussing the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and Biden's tenure. Schiff criticizes Biden's long career in government and questions the veracity of his accomplishments. The podcast also delves into recent market reactions to economic news, analyzing inflation reports, job statistics, and commodity price trends. Schiff highlights the challenges facing the U.S. economy under Trump's new term and stresses the importance of investing in gold and foreign stocks as a hedge against impending economic instability.

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Chapters:

00:00 Back in the Studio: Winter Break is Over

01:27 Biden's Farewell Address: Key Takeaways

02:37 Critique of Biden's Presidency

05:24 The Importance of Term Limits

12:03 Inflation and Market Reactions

14:05 Market Rally and Inflation Report Analysis

22:33 Global Inflation Trends and Commodity Prices

28:52 Investment Opportunities in Gold and Mining Stocks

33:02 Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets

33:26 Stagflation and Trump's Economic Inheritance

33:44 Producer Prices and Inflation Concerns

35:05 Fed's Policy and Fiscal Stimulus Critique

36:15 Jobs Report and Employment Quality

39:07 Janet Yellen's Comments on Deficit Spending

42:59 Trump's Tariff Plans and Economic Misconceptions

51:00 California Wildfires: Economic Consequences

59:49 Podcast Conclusion and Future Content

#BidenFarewellAddress #inflation2025 #CaliforniaWildfires

Soaring Commodity Prices Refute Inflation Forecasts - Ep 1002

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 04:29:40 +0000

Discussing Trump's proposal to annex Canada, trade deficits, Biden's inflation handling, higher commodity prices, and challenges with U.S. economic policies.

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In this episode, Peter Schiff addresses the series of statements by Donald Trump regarding potential U.S. annexation of Canada and critiques the adverse impacts of Trump's and Biden's economic policies. Schiff delves into the U.S. trade deficit with Canada and Europe and the underlying economic inefficiencies that necessitate importing goods from these regions. Discussing the recent inflation surge and commodity prices hitting a 14-year high, he analyzes the Federal Reserve's missteps leading to rising consumer prices and the impact of U.S. debt, which has ballooned under successive presidencies. Schiff also covers government spending's role in driving inflation higher and touches on politically charged topics like steel production and trade sanctions. He emphasizes the ongoing structural imbalances, the role of government borrowing, and anticipates future impacts on the economy, urging a focus on precious metals and critical commodities for stability in turbulent times.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Canadian Politics

02:07 Trump's Trade Deficit Claims

04:10 Inflation and Economic Policies

07:08 Commodity Prices Surge

09:48 Interest Rates and Government Spending

19:50 Technical Difficulties and Podcast Continuation

21:41 National Debt and Future Predictions

26:27 Economic Reality Check: Higher Rates and Recession

26:55 Inflation Misconceptions and Market Mispricing

27:25 Trump's Interest Rate Dilemma

28:17 Commemorating 50 Years of Legal Gold Ownership

30:18 Gold and Silver Investment Opportunities

31:15 Currency Market Reactions and Tariff Talks

33:50 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: The Trump Trade

41:07 The Steel Industry and Economic Decline

45:52 The Future of the U.S. Economy and Inflation

50:55 Conclusion and Podcast Updates

#Trump #Mexico #Canada

Will 2025 Be the Year the Bubbles Finally Burst? - Ep 1001

Sat, 28 Dec 2024 00:29:33 +0000

Stock markets, gold's stability, inflation, and economic predictions.

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In his latest podcast episode, Peter Schiff discusses significant movements within the economy, reacting to recent news in the market and politics. He begins by reflecting on his previous milestone podcast and wishes his listeners holiday greetings. Schiff provides in-depth analysis on the latest market trends, including the Dow's performance, the fluctuating gold and bond markets, and the Japanese government's bond yields. He critiques government spending policies, the inflationary impacts of rate cuts, and predicts a continuous rise in long-term treasury yields. Schiff also highlights the implications of a potential global financial shift, the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, and the rising U.S. deficit. He concludes by warning of a looming economic crisis and the potential consequences for the U.S. dollar and global markets, while emphasizing the significance of investing wisely in these volatile times.

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00:00 Introduction and Holiday Greetings

03:02 Market Overview and Stock Performance

04:18 Gold and Bond Market Analysis

07:05 Global Economic Trends and Predictions

11:25 US Debt and Political Commentary

15:43 Social Security Fairness Act

21:20 Trade Deficit and Economic Concerns

29:41 Bitcoin Reserve and USA Coin Proposal

32:30 Bitcoin Bubble and Economic Distortions

35:56 Economic Data and Market Reactions

41:50 Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics

46:39 Fed's Dilemma: Inflation vs. Recession

54:36 Conclusion and Future Plans

#inflation #cryptocurrency #stockmarket

The Great Rate Cut Rug Pull - Ep 1000

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:11:00 +0000

Jerome Powell's rate cut, market drops, economic risks, inflation, and the future of the economy.

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In this milestone 1000th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, Peter broadcasts from an unconventional setup due to technical issues, as he covers a dramatic day in the markets. Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis points interest rate cut to meet market expectations, but the stock market reacts negatively with significant losses. Peter discusses the historic losing streak in the Dow, investor optimism around speculative assets, and the financial risks posed by an expensive market amidst rising inflation and interest rates. He critiques Jerome Powell’s perception of a strong U.S. economy and labor market, highlighting negative data revisions and continuing economic vulnerabilities. Peter also addresses the implications of rising U.S. deficits, government spending, and a surging dollar on global inflation. He predicts further turbulence for the housing and financial markets, the potential for a bear market, and the likelihood of resumed Fed easing measures. Schiff concludes with insights on gold and silver investments, market disconnects, and political dynamics impacting economic policies.

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00:00 Introduction and Sponsorships

01:31 Market Overview

02:35 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut

03:00 Market Reactions and Historical Context

05:40 Gold and Stock Market Analysis

15:56 Commercial Break

17:23 Economic Indicators and Current Account Deficit

22:24 Global Economic Impact and Predictions

34:43 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Update

35:02 Bitcoin's Decline and MicroStrategy's Moves

35:47 Congress and Social Security Spending

36:32 Trump's Stance on Bitcoin

38:31 Economic Indicators and Manufacturing Data

39:28 Retail Sales and Consumer Debt

40:46 Fed's Monetary Policy and Market Reactions

43:41 Industrial Production and Economic Weakness

45:17 Fed's Press Conference and Rate Cuts

48:31 Future Economic Predictions and Market Strategies

01:00:11 Closing Remarks and Personal Updates

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarketAnalysis

Exploding Debt to Reignite Inflation - Ep 999

Sat, 14 Dec 2024 00:20:00 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses rising inflation, U.S. fiscal deficit, and accuses J5 of conspiring against his bank for a publicity stunt.

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Peter Schiff dives deep into the latest economic news, uncovering alarming inflation reports, the soaring U.S. budget deficit, and misguided fiscal responses. He critically analyzes political and media narratives about the U.S. economy, especially those surrounding recent elections and economic policies under both Trump and Biden administrations. Schiff reveals bombshell evidence of IRS and J5 collusion in the shutdown of his offshore bank, dissecting the motivations and consequences of such government overreach. He provides insights into the global economic impact, the future of inflation, and offers advice on safeguarding financial assets. As always, Peter's perspective is a stark contrast to mainstream economic discourse, shedding light on often overlooked truths.

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Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Opening Statements

00:53 Sponsorship Message: Lucy

01:20 Market and Inflation Overview

01:59 Fiscal Deficit Concerns

08:35 Inflation Data Analysis

13:44 Gold and Inflation Paradox

23:21 Trump's Economic Policies and Critique

29:56 Predicting Political Shifts and Economic Trends

30:38 Debunking Inflation Myths

32:35 The Impact of Tariffs and Historical Parallels

37:38 Revealing the IRS Conspiracy

39:55 Smoking Gun Evidence and Legal Battles

47:26 The Aftermath and Media Manipulation

01:02:23 Final Thoughts and Call to Action

Misplaced Outrage: The Truth About Health Insurance Companies - Ep 998

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 03:59:00 +0000

Gold reaches record highs, silver follows. Market reactions, inflation concerns, Fed's policies, Bitcoin scrutiny, and Trump's political stance.

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Peter Schiff discusses the significant rise in gold prices, noting that gold is nearing its all-time high in Australian dollars and other currencies while lagging in the U.S. dollar. He explains the underperformance of gold mining stocks and touches on labor costs in Australia. Peter also critiques current market sentiments, especially around Bitcoin, arguing against Michael Saylor's extreme advocacy and highlighting the potential risks of institutional investments in Bitcoin. Schiff then shifts gears to politics, offering a critical analysis of Donald Trump's economic policies, including misleading claims about inflation and tariffs. He also examines Trump's stance on entitlements and his approach to immigration reform. Concluding with poignant contrasts between the Daniel Penny and Luigi Mangione cases, Peter offers a compelling narrative on the current socio-political climate.

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00:00 Gold's Meteoric Rise and Market Analysis

02:51 Gold Mining Stocks and Market Sentiment

05:33 Silver's Performance and Investment Advice

08:02 Bitcoin's Market Dynamics and Institutional Investments

09:43 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Critical Comparison

11:48 Political Influence on Bitcoin and Economic Policies

20:40 Trump's Economic Claims and Tariff Policies

35:54 Trade Deficits and Misconceptions

37:33 Trump's Deportation Stance

39:31 Youth Vote and Political Naivety

41:18 Trump's Infallibility Complex

42:38 Entitlement Reform and Obamacare

46:49 Healthcare Industry and Insurance

54:22 Contrasting Murders: Luigi and Penny

01:02:22 Podcast Wrap-Up and Upcoming Topics

#GoldMarket #BitcoinInvesting #USPolitics

Bitcoin Tops $100K on Expected Government Bailout - Ep 997

Fri, 06 Dec 2024 22:18:46 +0000

Discusses market's record highs, job report boosts, consumer sentiment post-Trump election, Bitcoin surge, and upcoming economic challenges.

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Peter Schiff discusses the new record highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the slight downturn in the Dow, and the significant jump in consumer sentiment post-election. Schiff emphasizes the discrepancy between consumer optimism about Trump's election and his own skepticism. He critiques Jerome Powell's inflation forecast and the reliability of job reports, highlighting an ironic spike and drop in Bitcoin prices. Schiff touches upon job market anomalies, rising consumer credit despite high interest rates, and the potential implications of political changes on the financial market. He concludes with a critical view on the feasibility of the proposed 3-3-3 economic plan and the broader economic implications of Trump’s policies and Bitcoin expectations.

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00:00 Introduction and Market Update

02:45 Consumer Sentiment and Election Impact

05:34 Jobs Report Analysis

06:12 Bitcoin's Rollercoaster Ride

07:25 Economic Data and Government Jobs

16:28 Bitcoin and Government Policies

31:03 The Impact of Bitcoin on the Economy

33:08 Consumer Credit Numbers Analysis

36:34 Job Cuts and Unemployment Data

37:10 Trade Deficit Insights

39:31 Scott Bessent's Economic Plan

45:58 Challenges of Reducing Budget Deficits

54:48 Oil Production Goals and Economic Realities

59:26 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#Bitcoin #Trump #economy

Powell Knows the Public Can’t Handle the Truth - Ep 996

Thu, 05 Dec 2024 04:21:58 +0000

Discussion on US comments, import/export dynamics, reserve currency, major exports, economic data trends, and constitutional aspects of the exit tax.

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Peter Schiff addresses comments from his previous podcast about America's imports and elaborates on the nation's dependency on them. He explains the significant trade deficit and America's reliance on the dollar's reserve currency status, which allows for importing more than exporting. Schiff also provides insights into the economic repercussions of this imbalance, highlighting the country's major exports. The podcast discusses the federal financial burden, economic data releases, and the consequences of high interest rates on national debt. Schiff finishes with commentary on current events, including Biden's pardon of Hunter and Roger Ver's tax evasion case challenging the constitutionality of the exit tax.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Addressing Comments

02:10 America's Import and Export Dynamics

03:39 Top 10 American Exports

17:02 Economic Data and Market Reactions

27:08 Interview with Jerome Powell

36:14 The Debt Bubble and Interest Rates

38:27 Promotions and Announcements

42:06 Biden's Pardon of Hunter

44:48 Fraud and Legal Battles

51:10 Roger Ver and the Exit Tax

01:04:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#JPowell #Fed #Economy

Bye-Bye, What Americans Buy - Ep 995

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 01:55:00 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses Black Friday's origin, American consumerism, the nation's heavy reliance on imports, and Trump's economic policies.

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Peter Schiff discusses the concept of Black Friday and its origins, contrasting it with current perceptions of economic strength. He delves into the United States' heavy reliance on imported goods, listing numerous products and categories predominantly produced abroad. Schiff criticizes American consumer habits, particularly the reliance on debt for holiday spending, and challenges the notion of economic strength based on consumption rather than production. He critiques Donald Trump's trade policies, immigration stance, and economic strategies, arguing that America's perceived strength is a myth dependent on unsustainable consumption and foreign production. Schiff also touches on the impracticality of Trump's proposals for cutting government spending and tariffs, emphasizing the need for long-term investments and sacrifices to rebuild America's productive capacity.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:45 The History and Significance of Black Friday

05:03 Economic Misconceptions and Consumer Behavior

08:57 The Reality of American Consumption

11:01 Trump's Views on the Dollar and BRICS

17:49 The Consequences of Losing Foreign Goods

30:57 America's Dependence on Imported Goods

31:19 The Coffee and Seafood Shock

33:09 Produce and Other Imports

33:59 The Illusion of a Strong Economy

36:42 The Reality of American Imports

38:30 Trump's Economic Promises and Reality

39:14 The Challenge of Reindustrializing America

43:36 Immigration and Labor Policies

49:23 Tariffs and Government Spending

51:59 The Future of the American Economy

01:01:10 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#AmericanEconomy #BlackFridayHistory #EconomicPolicy

Tariffs: Not the Turkey We Want This Thanksgiving - Ep 994

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 23:30:37 +0000

Peter Schiff discusses Thanksgiving's capitalist roots, the Pilgrims' failed socialism, tariffs' economic impact, and recent market trends.

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Peter Schiff's Thanksgiving special podcast from St. Barths offers a compelling narrative on the history and lessons of Thanksgiving, celebrating capitalism over socialism. Drawing parallels between the early Pilgrims' failed communal experiment and Karl Marx's theories, Schiff emphasizes the pivotal role of individual incentives and free markets. He transitions into discussing current economic data, trade deficits, and the impact of tariffs under the Trump administration, debunking common economic misconceptions. Schiff argues that tariffs harm the US economy more than they benefit it and critiques government monetary policies, predicting economic challenges ahead. He concludes with reflections on the resilience of human nature and the enduring principles of capitalism.

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00:00 Introduction

02:24 Thanksgiving and Capitalism

05:14 The Pilgrims' Experiment with Socialism

09:28 The Shift to Capitalism and Its Success

12:22 Modern Implications of Pilgrims' Lessons

18:38 Gold Market and Global Economy

26:19 Impact of Tariffs on the Dollar

30:16 Final Thoughts Before Break

32:11 Debunking Tariffs and the Strong Dollar Myth

33:49 The Impact of Tariffs on Trade Deficit

36:38 Manufacturing Sector and Economic Weakness

40:48 Tariffs and Inflation: A Misunderstood Relationship

44:17 Global Trade and Comparative Advantage

49:37 Economic Data and Market Reactions

57:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#capitalism #Tariffs #Thanksgiving

Data Revisions Confirming What Voters Already Knew - Ep 993

Sun, 24 Nov 2024 03:59:00 +0000

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Bitcoin: The Biggest Bubble of Them All - Ep 992

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 05:51:43 +0000

Bitcoin hits new highs; MicroStrategy's risky Bitcoin investments; Trump's impact; misallocation in crypto; China's strategic investments; UK labor rights.

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Peter Schiff critiques the hype surrounding Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's investment strategies, attributing Bitcoin's recent gains to speculative fervor tied to political promises by figures like Donald Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. He argues that such speculative bubbles harm the economy by misallocating resources. Schiff contrasts these developments with China's strategic investments in infrastructure, which bolster their economic position. He also discusses the implications of labor laws in the UK and their potential to backfire by increasing automation and outsourcing. Schiff concludes by emphasizing the ongoing devaluation of the dollar and the risks posed by continued abandonment of the gold standard.

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00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:38 Bitcoin's Record Highs and Market Dynamics

02:37 Trump's Influence on Bitcoin

09:16 MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy

17:45 Commercial Break

19:03 Bitcoin Bubble and Market Criticism

23:40 Gold Standard and Economic Perspectives

25:49 Bitcoin vs. Gold Debate

31:22 Commercial Break

31:46 Holiday Season and Hair Health

32:00 Nutrafol: The Ultimate Hair Growth Solution

33:27 The Cost of Healthy Eating

37:39 Impact of Immigration Policies

43:29 UK's Labor Bill of Rights

57:33 Conclusion and Upcoming Events

#Bitcoin #MicroStrategy #gold

The Road to Inflation Is Paved With Debt - Ep 991

Sat, 16 Nov 2024 00:26:26 +0000

Analyzing bond yields, Fed policies, national debt impacts, and contrasting Bitcoin's speculative rise against gold's decline post-Trump win.

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In this episode, Peter Schiff explores the current market trends led by the bond market and their broader impacts. He discusses the recent high yields on U.S. Treasuries, Fed rate cuts, and inflation adjustments. Schiff critiques the enormous rise in national debt under both Trump and Biden administrations and cautions against further deficit spending. He delves into the implications of rising interest rates on the housing market, the dollar's strength, and gold prices. Schiff also comments on the speculative nature of Bitcoin, and the potential consequences of the U.S. government's proposed involvement in Bitcoin transactions. He shares his skepticism about the Department of Government Efficiency and the unrealistic expectations for spending cuts. Peter Schiff emphasizes the importance of sound economic policies and the dangers of continued fiscal irresponsibility.

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00:00 Introduction: The Trump Trade and Bond Market Dynamics

02:13 Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on Treasury Yields

03:34 National Debt and Presidential Records

07:08 Bitcoin vs. Gold: Market Reactions

07:44 Senator Loomis' Bitcoin Proposal

10:57 Sarcastic Social Security Plan with Bitcoin

17:19 Debunking the Strong Economy Narrative

19:22 Rising Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns

26:24 Department of Government Efficiency: A Joke?

30:39 Challenges in Cutting Government Programs

31:03 Reagan's Failed Attempts and Trump's Prospects

32:13 The Reality of Government Job Cuts

33:48 Trump's Spending Promises vs. Reality

36:50 Bitcoin and the Financial Bubble

44:51 The Constitutional Debate on Money Printing

50:35 The Federal Reserve's Role and Independence

53:00 Conclusion and Future Outlook

#FederalReserve #TrumpTrade #BitcoinPrice

Powell Admits Fed Has No Plan For Stagflation - Ep 990

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 23:55:00 +0000

Markets soar on Trump's return, skepticism persists. Budget deficits, trade issues, and economic challenges under scrutiny.

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Peter Schiff dissects the economic landscape post Donald Trump's re-election, contrasting the current market euphoria with his skepticism. He discusses the stock market's all-time highs, driven by nominal gains, and expresses doubt about a sustainable 'Trump Boom' given historical failures to address trade and budget deficits. Schiff emphasizes the worsening economic conditions since 2016, highlighting higher interest rates, increased national debt, and a fragile economy. He questions Trump's proposed tax cuts and deregulation policies, arguing they are not a panacea and may exacerbate economic problems. With no clear plan from the Federal Reserve to tackle stagflation, Schiff advises listeners to be wary of the current market optimism and consider investing in foreign stocks and gold.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Trump Mania and Market Reactions

02:07 Trump's Economic Promises and Failures

03:05 Challenges Facing Trump's Second Term

04:59 Tax Cuts and Economic Realities

09:26 Global Economic Trends and Comparisons

21:48 Investment Strategies and Market Predictions

30:07 Fed Rate Cut and Economic Implications

31:34 Monetary Policy and Debt Levels

32:32 Gold Price Movements and Press Conference Insights

33:38 Inflation Shock and Central Bank Policies

37:06 Fed's Stance on Fiscal Policy and Deficits

42:00 Election Results and Economic Perception

45:21 Stagflation Concerns and Fed's Response

49:40 Investment Strategies and Market Outlook

53:46 Conclusion and Call to Action

#TrumpEconomics #MarketPredictions #InvestmentStrategy

Trump Won. Now What? - Ep 989

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 03:24:47 +0000

Trump wins 2024, repeating 2016 win. Markets react with highs, despite unchanged economy woes.

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Peter Schiff offers an in-depth analysis of Donald Trump's historic second term win, comparing it to Grover Cleveland's non-consecutive terms. Schiff critiques Trump's economic promises, tax cuts, and deregulation efforts, arguing they complicate existing fiscal problems rather than providing solutions. He highlights the disparity between media portrayal of the economy and the public's experience, emphasizing long-term issues such as the escalating national debt and rising interest rates. Schiff also discusses market reactions, potential impacts on stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities like gold. He delves into media bias and corruption, his own legal battles, and concerns for future economic stability under Trump's presidency.

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00:00 Introduction and Opening Statements

01:22 Trump's Historical Win and Economic Analysis

06:38 Media Reactions and Public Sentiment

11:10 Market Reactions and Financial Implications

20:40 Comparing Economic Conditions: 2016 vs. 2024

25:47 Challenges Ahead for Trump's Second Term

32:42 Political Gridlock and Tax Cuts

33:45 Impact of Tax Cuts on Tips and Overtime

34:45 Consequences of Exempting Social Security from Taxes

36:21 Inflation and Economic Concerns

38:17 Historical Context: Liz Truss and Tax Cuts

39:59 The Bond Market's Role in Economic Stability

44:02 Trump's Economic Promises and Realities

46:04 Criticism of Trump's Policies

50:11 Personal Legal Battle and Government Corruption

01:01:41 Conclusion and Call to Action

#TrumpWin #EconomicAnalysis #GovernmentCorruption

Data of the Dead - Ep 988

Fri, 01 Nov 2024 23:25:00 +0000

Peter Schiff analyzes recent economic data, jobs report, GDP numbers, inflation concerns, and criticizes government policies. He discusses impacts on markets, gold, and cryptocurrency.

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Timestamps:

01:41 Economic Data Overview

02:41 GDP and Consumer Spending Analysis

03:55 Inflation and Government Spending

06:23 Job Cuts and Personal Income

12:28 Manufacturing Sector Insights

15:09 October Jobs Report Preview

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19:56 October Jobs Report Analysis

26:24 Market Reactions and Predictions

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34:51 MicroStrategy vs. Newmont Mining: A Market Analysis

42:23 Bitcoin and Market Sentiment

45:24 The Contrarian Investment Approach

46:31 The Importance of a Constitutional Republic

47:34 The Trump Economic Miracle: Fact or Fiction?

50:49 Voting Strategy for Libertarians

56:51 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#gold #mstr #bitcoin

U.S. Consumers More Reliant Than Ever on Foreign Producers - Ep 987

Wed, 30 Oct 2024 02:39:00 +0000

Kamala Harris' election odds, Trump's market impact, economic data, job reports, consumer confidence, and record-high gold.

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Market Predictions, Election Insights, and Economic Realities Peter Schiff addresses the economic landscape, election dynamics, and market predictions. He critiques Kamala Harris's low betting odds, Trump's rise in the polls, and the weak job market, emphasizing that the economic data contradicts the portrayal of a strong economy by the media. Peter discusses the trade deficit, consumer confidence, and the implications of the Biden administration's policies. He also explores the effects of potential tariffs, tax cuts, and deficits on inflation and suggests that investor behavior towards gold mining stocks and Bitcoin signals broader economic trends. Peter expresses dissatisfaction with the Puerto Rican government's actions regarding his bank and hints at future revelations. This episode provides a detailed analysis of the interplay between politics and economics and serves as a call to think critically about the upcoming election and its impact on the economy.

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Timesstamps:

01:03 Introduction and Market Update

01:42 Gold and Silver Price Surge

04:45 Impact of Fed Rate Cuts

07:24 Economic Indicators and Job Market Analysis

08:35 Inflation and Bond Market Dynamics

10:39 Gold Market Trends and Predictions

26:47 Trump's Influence on Markets

33:16 Understanding Direct and Indirect Taxes

33:53 Trump's Tariffs and the BRICS Summit

34:39 Impact of Tariffs on the Dollar

36:44 Global Shift Away from the Dollar

43:30 Paul Tudor Jones on Inflation and Debt

48:57 The Looming Debt Crisis

57:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Dismantling the Dollar Brick by Brick - Ep 986

Fri, 25 Oct 2024 23:32:37 +0000

Gold Market Insights, Dollar Debate, and Trump's Tax Proposals

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Peter Schiff brings an in-depth analysis of recent market volatility, focusing on the enduring yet controversial performance of gold amidst economic uncertainty. He dissects Newmont Mining's significant stock drop despite strong earnings, critiques market reactions, and evaluates potential highs for gold stocks. Schiff scrutinizes Trump's tax proposals, illustrating their impracticality due to extensive government spending and misconceptions about tariffs. He offers perspectives on the US dollar's potential crash following a period of rally, emphasizing the global shift towards gold for stable international trade. Schiff also debates the benefits of a gold standard, insights into rising treasury yields, labor costs, and currency fluctuations. Additional topics include critiques of government policies such as the FTC's 'click-to-cancel' rule, and a call to prioritize free market principles for economic health.

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00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks

01:35 Upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference

04:03 Gold and Silver Market Analysis

06:11 Newmont Mining Earnings Report

13:56 Investment Opportunities in Gold Stocks

20:28 US Treasury Yields and Janet Yellen's Remarks

26:04 Trump's Tax Proposals and Historical Context

29:04 The Evolution of Payroll Taxes

29:47 Trump's Misunderstanding of Tariffs

31:24 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin

33:38 Debating the Future of the Dollar

40:02 The BRIC Summit and Dollar Alternatives

45:56 Government Meddling in Subscriptions

52:00 Labor Market Regulations in the UK

56:49 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#GoldMarket #USeconomy #FederalReserve

Gold and Silver Are Poised to Melt Up - Ep 985

Wed, 23 Oct 2024 03:40:00 +0000

Gold rises, Fed policies, inflation, QE, Trump, Bitcoin, BRICS, debt.

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Peter Schiff delves into recent economic developments and market trends, returning from the Orlando Money Show to share his insights. He discusses the significant rise in gold and silver prices, the unexpected increase in long-term bond yields following the Fed's rate cuts, and critiques of mainstream media narratives about the economy's strength. Schiff argues that underlying economic conditions are weaker than reported, leading to higher inflation and growing budget deficits. He touches on the sell-off in U.S. treasury bonds, the BRICS Summit's implications for the dollar, and the illusion of wealth created by inflation. Schiff analyzes Donald Trump's economic policies, including the potential for a 'Trump dump' on Bitcoin and the harms of new tax schemes and tariffs. He concludes by advocating for an honest default on debt to avoid hyperinflation, highlighting the need for realistic economic solutions to manage the impending crisis effectively.

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01:03 Introduction and Market Update

01:42 Gold and Silver Price Surge

04:45 Impact of Fed Rate Cuts

07:24 Economic Indicators and Job Market Analysis

08:35 Inflation and Bond Market Dynamics

10:39 Gold Market Trends and Predictions

26:47 Trump's Influence on Markets

33:16 Understanding Direct and Indirect Taxes

33:53 Trump's Tariffs and the BRICS Summit

34:39 Impact of Tariffs on the Dollar

36:44 Global Shift Away from the Dollar

43:30 Paul Tudor Jones on Inflation and Debt

48:57 The Looming Debt Crisis

57:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#GoldMarket #Inflation #EconomyPrediction

Investors and Gamblers Are Betting on Trump - Ep 984

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 15:59:00 +0000

Stock and Bitcoin trends, Fed's influence on metal prices, policy impacts on economy, and tariff effects on manufacturing.

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Peter provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic and political landscape. Beginning with the record highs in the Dow Jones and the booming interest in Bitcoin, Peter attributes market optimism to Donald Trump's rising poll numbers and potential tax cuts. He critiques the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and their long-term implications on interest rates and the U.S. dollar. Peter dives into the disconnect between rising long-term interest rates and stable gold prices, and highlights the growing interest in Bitcoin among traders.

He also scrutinizes Kamala Harris's faltering poll numbers and her economic proposals, arguing against government intervention in business funding and advocating for free-market solutions. Delving deeper, Peter discusses the negative impact of tariffs and the decline of American manufacturing, urging for deregulation and tax cuts. Concluding with a discussion on the hidden costs of tariffs, taxes, and government spending.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and Orlando Money Show Announcement
01:51 Market Trends and New Highs
02:42 The Trump Trade and Bitcoin
09:38 Gold and Silver Market Analysis
17:48 Oil Prices and Political Influence
20:46 African American Vote and Political Strategies
33:31 The Flawed Business Model
33:52 Unconstitutional Programs and Racial Criteria
36:34 The Problem with Government Funding
38:44 Occupational Licensing Laws
42:34 Tariffs and Economic Misconceptions
45:58 The Decline of American Manufacturing
51:12 The Real Impact of Tariffs
53:58 The History and Consequences of Taxation
57:32 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

You Can’t Depend on Politically Crafted Government Data - Ep 983

Fri, 11 Oct 2024 00:31:00 +0000

Critiquing job reports. Questioning the Fed. Scrutinizing data. Inflation methods. Political motives. State preparedness.

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Schiff critically examines the recent jobs report, labeling it as misleading and detailing the implications of government employment statistics. He questions the significance of the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest cuts, given what he considers unreliable government data. Schiff delves into the complexities of inflation reports, expressing skepticism on the methodologies for calculating inflation and unemployment. He also addresses the political motivations behind such statistics. Emphasizing Milton Friedman’s perspective, Schiff highlights government spending as the true measure of taxation and inflation. Additionally, he critiques the inefficiencies of FEMA and advocates for state-level emergency preparedness. Schiff touches on his wife's new music project and encourages support for her band, 'Laughing Cats.' The episode wraps up with Schiff’s comments on upcoming content and a holiday observance note.

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Government Hiring Spree Means Higher Taxes and Inflation - Ep 982

Sat, 05 Oct 2024 01:19:13 +0000

The September Jobs Report: A Deeper Dive into Government Hiring and Market Implications

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Peter unpacks the September jobs report, highlighting the surprising surge in government hiring amidst looming elections. He questions the authenticity and timing of these figures, suggesting political motivations behind the data boost for the Biden-Harris administration. Peter contrasts private versus government job creation, explaining the economic implications of these new roles funded by taxpayers. As he laments the service sector's dominance and the fading strength of manufacturing, he predicts post-election job revisions. Peter also advises against broad faith in market indicators and reiterates the urgency of investing in gold and silver stocks, casting a skeptical eye on Bitcoin's faltering performance compared to gold. Overall, he stands firm against superficial economic narratives, advocating for practical investment strategies informed by a realistic outlook.

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Timestamps:

00:42 Jobs Report and Political Implications

04:18 Analyzing the Jobs Data

09:57 Government vs. Private Sector Jobs

14:53 Economic Consequences of Government Hiring

25:08 Labor Market Developments and Automation

32:51 Employer Liability and Automation

34:22 Market Reactions and Fed Rate Cuts

36:20 Oil Prices and Inflation Concerns

37:51 Manufacturing Recession and Service Sector Strength

45:49 Gold and Silver Market Dynamics

52:59 Emerging Markets and Investment Opportunities

54:23 Bitcoin's Bear Market Analysis

57:28 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#jobsreport #governmentjobs #inflation

Government Stimulus Is Inflation in Disguise - Ep 981

Sat, 28 Sep 2024 00:09:09 +0000

Gold reaches record highs, silver follows. Market reactions, inflation concerns, Fed's policies, and economic predictions

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Peter discusses the new all-time records set by gold and silver, highlights the puzzling behavior of gold mining stocks, and criticizes the mainstream financial media's understanding of inflation and Federal Reserve policies. He elaborates on the significant data from the Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core PCE, revealing how it misrepresents the true state of inflation. Peter also explains why the Fed's strategy is misguided and suggests that persistent inflation will lead to an eventual return to QE. He ties in how geopolitical moves, like China's recent stimulus announcement, and domestic factors, including Saudi Arabia's oil production strategy, influence market dynamics. Furthermore, Peter argues for the importance of investing in gold and silver as he predicts a substantial increase in their value due to ongoing economic missteps by the Fed.

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Fed Caves With Aggressive Rate Cut - Ep 980

Thu, 19 Sep 2024 03:54:34 +0000

FOMC Rate Cut Analysis: Fed's Decision, Market Reactions, and Economic Realities

Peter Schiff analyzes the highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut following the two-day FOMC meeting, emphasizing its effects on the markets and broader economy. He critiques Jerome Powell's justification for the 50 basis points cut, the Fed's stance on inflation, and the true state of employment in the U.S. Schiff also discusses the contradictions in Trump's and Harris's economic promises, their implications for future fiscal policies, and the potential consequences for the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and the overall economy. He highlights the ongoing issues with the national debt and the risks of price controls. Additionally, Schiff advises on investment strategies, including gold, silver, and international equities, amid the anticipated economic downturn.

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01:39 Market Reactions and Predictions

02:36 Inflation and Price Controls Discussion

05:11 Trump's Economic Policies and Price Controls

08:53 Interest Rates and Economic Indicators

16:37 Fed's Rate Cut and Market Impact

28:19 Questioning the Strength of the Economy

29:01 The Fed's Balance Sheet Dilemma

30:01 Historical Perspective on Interest Rates

33:33 The Recession and Rising Interest Rates

38:27 Trump's Economic Promises and Criticisms

47:13 Preparing for the Economic Collapse

51:09 Investment Strategies for the Future

53:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

#FOMCMeeting #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook

Gold Soars as The Fed Readies Rate Cuts - Ep 979

Sat, 14 Sep 2024 00:59:00 +0000

Market Analysis, Gold Surge, and Personal Announcement

Peter Schiff discusses the stock markets' performance on Friday the 13th, noting that while major indexes ended on a positive note, the only asset to hit a new all-time high was gold. He interrupts the usual podcast to announce his wife Lauren's new music duo, 'The Laughing Cats,' and their debut album, 'Funny Money,' highlighting the first single 'G.Y.B.' now available on Spotify. Peter then resumes, detailing gold's significant rise to new record highs and contrasting it with the stock market's performance in terms of gold pricing. He also critiques the U.S. budget deficit, discusses potential economic impacts of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut, and assesses the presidential debates, focusing on issues of tariffs and tax cuts. Peter emphasizes the investment potential of gold and gold stocks amidst the current economic landscape.

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00:25 Stock Market and Gold Performance

00:46 Announcement: The Laughing Cats' New Album

04:48 Gold's Record Highs and Market Analysis

17:25 Bitcoin and Oil Market Insights

22:46 Inflation and Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

26:22 CPI and PPI Data Analysis

32:56 Wall Street's Call for Rate Cuts

33:27 Record-Breaking Budget Deficit

36:07 Economic Weakness and Job Statistics

37:26 Presidential Debate Analysis

43:32 Tax Cut Promises and Economic Realities

48:23 Tariffs and Their Impact

54:43 The Illusion of Tax Cuts

01:00:20 Conclusion and Investment Advice

#goldprice #investmenttips #stockmarketanalysis

Financial Markets Back on the Brink of Collapse - Ep 978

Sat, 07 Sep 2024 06:40:00 +0000

Market Turmoil & Economic Uncertainty: A Deep Dive into Non-Farm Payroll Report and Fed Policies

In this episode, we explore today's weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report and its impact on the markets. Despite a brief improvement in stock indices following rate cut expectations, concerns loom as markets question whether a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut is forthcoming. The podcast dissects the current state of the labor market, the potential Fed actions, and the implications for tech stocks, gold stocks, cryptocurrencies, and overall market dynamics. We also delve into the historical context, drawing parallels to the financial crisis of 2008 and discussing the looming recession and inflation threats.

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#stockmarket #inflation #cryptocurrency

Making Lemonade Out of Economic Lemons - Ep 977

Mon, 02 Sep 2024 03:29:00 +0000

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The Fed Makes Its Biggest Mistake Yet - Ep 976

Sat, 24 Aug 2024 03:52:00 +0000

Market Turmoil, Political Drama, and Economic Forecasts

Peter delves into a tumultuous week in the markets and politics. He covers key events including Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech and its implications for interest rate cuts, the Democratic National Convention, and Robert Kennedy Jr.'s decision to drop out and endorse Donald Trump. Peter argues that the Federal Reserve is pivoting from fighting inflation to addressing rising unemployment, critiques the state of unemployment statistics and job market data, and discusses the potential for a gold price boom amidst a weakening dollar. Additionally, Peter offers in-depth commentary on the flaws in government spending and social security, the misrepresentations in political narratives, and explores future economic outlooks. He closes with a call to invest in gold and gold stocks.

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Gold Breaks $2,500. Harris Would Send it to the Moon - Ep 975

Sat, 17 Aug 2024 03:51:27 +0000

Unprecedented Gold Highs and Underlying Market Dynamics

Peter discusses the historic rise of gold prices, which closed above $2,500 per ounce for the first time. He contrasts the performance of gold with that of Bitcoin, highlighting gold's significant growth since the start of the century. Peter also explores the underwhelming response of gold mining stocks to gold's record highs and predicts a bullish future for gold prices and mining stocks. Additionally, he critiques potential economic policies of Kamala Harris, cautioning that they may lead to increased inflation. Peter urges listeners to invest in gold, silver, and mining stocks, emphasizing the importance of proactive investment to mitigate inflationary risks.

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Inflation Data Supports Rate Hikes, Not Rate Cuts - Ep 974

Thu, 15 Aug 2024 05:26:35 +0000

Peter Schiff dissects the latest inflation data, emphasizing the government's manipulation in underreporting true inflation figures. He compares the July CPI and PPI reports, suggesting real inflation rates could be double the official numbers.

Schiff highlights the significant federal budget deficit and its implications for future inflation. He argues that the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is politically driven and could backfire.

Schiff also discusses the repercussions of government policies on industries like solar energy, resulting in SunPower's bankruptcy. He critiques government intervention in housing, education, and healthcare, asserting these measures have increased costs and decreased efficiency.

Lastly, Schiff commends Elon Musk's take on inflation and calls for substantial reductions in government spending and more market-driven solutions.

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Bank of Japan Rescues the Markets... For Now - Ep 973

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 03:55:00 +0000

Peter returns to his Puerto Rico studio after an extended vacation. He discusses recent market volatility, including movements in stocks, Japan’s market crash, and cryptocurrency fluctuations.

Peter critiques the Fed's decision not to cut rates, arguing that delaying cuts only worsens economic pain. He predicts future rate cuts and quantitative easing, and shares insights on gold and mining stock investments.

Additionally, Peter analyzes the political landscape, focusing on Kamala Harris's VP pick, and criticizes new UK laws limiting free speech. Peter also advocates for tax reforms and spending cuts to address the deficits

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Will There Be an Emergency Rate Cut to Avert a Crash? - Ep 972

Sat, 03 Aug 2024 03:50:34 +0000

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Bitcoin Faction Exposes the Evils of Democracy - Ep 971

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 15:32:00 +0000

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Trump Is a Living American Folk Hero That No Democrat Can Beat - Ep 970

Sun, 21 Jul 2024 04:50:00 +0000

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Trump Dodged a Bullet, but Economy Won’t Be So Lucky - Ep 969

Mon, 15 Jul 2024 01:59:58 +0000

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Bad News for Biden and the Economy - Ep 968

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 03:00:00 +0000

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Biden Bombs Bigly - Ep 967

Sat, 29 Jun 2024 02:45:00 +0000

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New Inflationary Government Program Subverts Fed - Ep 966

Mon, 24 Jun 2024 03:56:00 +0000

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Fed Fakes Inflation Fight as Pretext for Future Cuts - Ep 965

Sat, 15 Jun 2024 01:57:00 +0000

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Did China Just Sucker Investors Out of Their Gold? - Ep 964

Mon, 10 Jun 2024 03:20:00 +0000

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Biden Is the Real Felon, Not Trump - Ep 963

Mon, 03 Jun 2024 03:25:00 +0000

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Is the Money in Your Pocket Counterfeit? - Ep 962

Thu, 23 May 2024 05:26:00 +0000

During an unexpected podcast episode from The Bahamas, Peter Schiff discusses the significant breakout in silver prices, reaching the highest since 2013, and the new record highs in gold. He elaborates on central banks' preference for gold over silver and the retail selling trend, emphasizing an opportunity to buy both metals after a correction. Schiff points out the ineffectiveness of the Fed's statements and actions on the true value of gold and silver, suggesting that prices will rise regardless of rate cuts. He uses historical experiences and the transition from real silver coins to nickel-clad copper as an example of government devaluation of currency. Schiff highlights the potential in buying physical silver, especially 'junk silver', for its barter value and the current low premiums as an investment opportunity. He also touches on the importance of investing in gold and silver mining stocks, recommending professional guidance for navigating the sector.

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Tariffs and Inflation Are Taxes - Ep 961

Fri, 17 May 2024 03:43:00 +0000

In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter discusses the recent milestone where the Dow Jones industrial average traded above 40,000 for the first time, yet closed down on the same day. He elaborates on nominal vs. real terms of value, emphasizing the importance of measuring stock markets in terms of gold to gain an accurate perspective on value over time. Schiff critiques the government's role in inflating the economy, creating an illusion of prosperity while diminishing the dollar's value, and further explores how tariffs and fiscal policies contribute to the U.S. economic challenges, including growing debt and inflation. The episode also features wider discussions on the impact of inflation data, global economic indicators, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and its inability to control inflation effectively.

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Abolish the US Council of Economic Advisers - Ep 960

Mon, 13 May 2024 03:22:00 +0000

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Dovish Fed Rescues Markets - Ep 959

Mon, 06 May 2024 03:48:00 +0000

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The Secret Word Is Stagflation - Ep 958

Sat, 27 Apr 2024 01:18:00 +0000

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Rotating From Growth & Bitcoin to Value & Gold - Ep 957

Sun, 21 Apr 2024 15:58:00 +0000

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The Gold Canary Didn’t Die of Natural Causes - Ep 956

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 22:35:00 +0000

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Any News Is Good News for Gold - Ep 955

Sat, 06 Apr 2024 03:59:00 +0000

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Everyday Is April Fools' Day, for Most Investors - Ep 954

Tue, 02 Apr 2024 02:25:00 +0000

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Get Ready for an Inflation Bloodbath - Ep 953

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 03:26:00 +0000

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Resurgent Inflation Will Surprise Investors and Rattle Markets - Ep 952

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 03:40:00 +0000

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Biden and Powell Do America, Part 2 - Ep 951

Mon, 11 Mar 2024 03:38:00 +0000

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Gold's Breakout Signals Monetary Policy Too Loose - Ep 950

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 03:16:37 +0000

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Bitcoin Mania Creates Golden Opportunity - Ep 949

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 02:59:00 +0000

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A Tale of Two Stocks - Ep 948

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 03:34:00 +0000

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Inflation Threat Is Graver Than Investors Realize - Ep 947

Wed, 14 Feb 2024 03:32:00 +0000

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When Jerome Powell Talks, People Shouldn't Listen - Ep 946

Wed, 07 Feb 2024 03:12:00 +0000

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Another BS Jobs Report From the Gov't - Ep 945

Sat, 03 Feb 2024 01:00:00 +0000

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Powell Rains on March Rate Cut Parade - Ep 944

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 02:40:00 +0000

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Despite the Data, Economy May Already Be in Recession - Ep 943

Sat, 27 Jan 2024 01:53:03 +0000

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Markets Are Poised to Confound Investors - Ep 942

Sat, 20 Jan 2024 01:31:00 +0000

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Jobs and Inflation and Bitcoin, Oh My! - Ep 941

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 02:57:50 +0000

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2024 Surprises Will Be Greater Than in 2023 - Ep 940

Sat, 30 Dec 2023 01:01:36 +0000

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Did the Fed Just Steal the Santa Claus Rally? - Ep 939

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 01:05:00 +0000

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Fed Tempers Rate Cut Enthusiasm - Ep 938

Sat, 16 Dec 2023 01:15:00 +0000

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The Fed Finally Surrenders; Inflation Wins - Ep 937

Thu, 14 Dec 2023 05:48:00 +0000

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Just Another Hyped Up Jobs Report - Ep 936

Sat, 09 Dec 2023 01:01:00 +0000

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Fed Gov't Argues for Unlimited Taxing Power Before the Supreme Court - Ep 935

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 03:15:00 +0000

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Gold Breaks Out to a New Record High - Ep 934

Sat, 02 Dec 2023 03:49:00 +0000

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I Won My Defamation Lawsuit in Australia - Ep 933

Wed, 29 Nov 2023 03:49:32 +0000

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A Soft Landing Is Impossible - Ep 932

Sat, 18 Nov 2023 03:27:00 +0000

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Reports of Inflation’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated - Ep 931

Wed, 15 Nov 2023 03:19:00 +0000

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Investor Optimism at Odds With Reality - Ep 930

Sat, 11 Nov 2023 03:55:05 +0000

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Fed Won’t Achieve Either Mandate - Ep 929

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 23:30:00 +0000

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The National Debt Is the Scariest Halloween Costume - Ep 928

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 23:07:59 +0000

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The US Isn't Japan, It's Argentina - Ep 927

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 23:28:00 +0000

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Powell’s Not Qualified to Be a Member of an Economic Club - Ep 926

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 23:18:00 +0000

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The "Unsinkable" American Consumer Is Drowning In Debt - Ep 925

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 04:01:50 +0000

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Gold Rises on Worse Than Expected Inflation News - Ep 924

Sat, 14 Oct 2023 02:59:00 +0000

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The US Can’t Afford Peace, Let Alone War - Ep 923

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 00:39:53 +0000

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National Debt Clock Ticks Down to DEFCON 1- Ep 922

Fri, 06 Oct 2023 15:44:52 +0000

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The Biggest Crisis Is the One Few See Coming - Ep 921

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 00:14:00 +0000

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The Entire Economy Is About to Implode - Ep 920

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 03:08:25 +0000

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Inflation Is Strong, Not the Economy - Ep 919

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 02:19:00 +0000

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The Inflation War Has Already Been Lost - Ep 918

Fri, 15 Sep 2023 22:40:00 +0000

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Fed Money Magicians Running Out of Rabbits - Ep 917

Sat, 09 Sep 2023 00:26:41 +0000

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Job Market Cools as Inflation Heats Up - Ep 916

Fri, 01 Sep 2023 22:35:44 +0000

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Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Is Full of Holes - Ep 915

Mon, 28 Aug 2023 03:00:00 +0000

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Peter Schiff's Reaction to the 2024 Republican Party Presidential Debate - Ep 914

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 06:01:00 +0000

First 2024 Republican Party presidential debate reaction.

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The Days of Low Inflation and Low Interest Rates are Over - Ep 913

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 03:53:00 +0000

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Minutes Show It’s Later Than the Fed Thinks - Ep 912

Thu, 17 Aug 2023 02:51:00 +0000

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The Fed Will Never Hit Its Inflation Target - Ep 911

Mon, 14 Aug 2023 03:39:00 +0000

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A Market Driven U.S. Dollar Downgrade Is the Real Threat - Ep 910

Mon, 07 Aug 2023 02:47:00 +0000

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Powell Commits to Rate Cuts Before Inflation Hits 2% - Ep 909

Mon, 31 Jul 2023 02:47:08 +0000

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Is the AI Inspired Tech Bubble About to Pop? - Ep 908

Fri, 21 Jul 2023 22:08:00 +0000

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Dollar Breakdown Confirms Lower Inflation Is Transitory - Ep 907

Sun, 16 Jul 2023 15:35:08 +0000

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Today’s Dollar Rout Confirms Inflation Will Worsen - Ep 906

Wed, 12 Jul 2023 19:31:58 +0000

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Bond Bear Will Maul Stocks and the Dollar - Ep 905

Sun, 09 Jul 2023 23:53:03 +0000

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Supreme Court Trumps Biden - Ep 904

Sun, 02 Jul 2023 21:27:22 +0000

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An Independent Fed Would Criticize Bad Fiscal Policy - 903

Mon, 26 Jun 2023 02:35:17 +0000

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National Debt Time Bomb Ticks $32 Trillion - Ep 902

Wed, 21 Jun 2023 03:18:02 +0000

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The Pause That Doesn’t Refresh - Ep 901

Thu, 15 Jun 2023 02:42:00 +0000

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French Style Price Controls Are Coming to America - Ep 900

Fri, 09 Jun 2023 22:53:39 +0000

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Abolishing Govt. Departments Restores Freedom & Prosperity - Ep 899

Tue, 06 Jun 2023 23:13:58 +0000

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Restructuring the Debt Beats Inflating It Away - Ep 898

Sat, 03 Jun 2023 23:54:00 +0000

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Fiscal Irresponsibility Shatters the Debt Ceiling - Ep 897

Thu, 01 Jun 2023 03:40:00 +0000

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Powell and Bernanke Do America - Ep 896

Tue, 23 May 2023 03:40:00 +0000

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Fed's Tough Inflation Talk Sparks Gold Correction - Ep 895

Fri, 19 May 2023 03:07:23 +0000

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Biased Media Fails Investors and the Public - Ep 894

Thu, 11 May 2023 01:40:28 +0000

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Economic Data Confirms Entrenched Inflation - Ep 893

Mon, 08 May 2023 02:42:00 +0000

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Powell Pause Is Off, so Risk Is On - Ep 892

Thu, 04 May 2023 05:12:21 +0000

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Growth Slows Down as Inflation Speeds Up - Ep 891

Mon, 01 May 2023 04:21:00 +0000

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Fire Joe Biden, Not Tucker Carlson! - Ep 890

Thu, 27 Apr 2023 04:40:00 +0000

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The Debt’s the Problem. Not Raising the Ceiling Is the Solution. - Ep 889

Mon, 24 Apr 2023 04:13:26 +0000

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Just When You Thought Government Couldn’t Get Any Dumber - Ep 888

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 03:54:05 +0000

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The Fed and Yellen Make Startling Admissions - Ep 887

Mon, 17 Apr 2023 04:19:14 +0000

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Traders Still Get Jobs and Inflation Wrong - Ep 886

Wed, 12 Apr 2023 04:08:06 +0000

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King Dollar Will Soon Be Dethroned - Ep 885

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 03:23:00 +0000

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Gold Stocks Are the New Tech Stocks - Ep 884

Sat, 01 Apr 2023 22:11:00 +0000

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Bank Regulations Are the Problem, Not the Solution - Ep 883

Tue, 28 Mar 2023 23:55:00 +0000

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Financial Media Surprised by the Obvious

Fri, 24 Mar 2023 23:23:29 +0000

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Powell Brushes off Banking Crisis as Bump in the Road - Ep 881

Thu, 23 Mar 2023 12:42:27 +0000

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PREVIEW: The Peter Schiff Show Premium Member Special - March 20, 2023

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 23:55:22 +0000

Introduction to a special episode of the Peter Schiff Show. Get the full episode with Q&A https://schiffradio.com/premium/

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Fed's Balance Sheet Confirm QE5 - Ep 880

Fri, 17 Mar 2023 21:54:38 +0000

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The 2023 Financial Crisis Just Went Global - Ep 879

Thu, 16 Mar 2023 14:03:00 +0000

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The 2023 Financial Crisis Has Started - Ep 878

Tue, 14 Mar 2023 18:51:40 +0000

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Will the Fed Pivot to Postpone Another Financial Crisis? - Ep 877

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 16:55:45 +0000

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ABC Four Corners’ Fake News Exposed - Ep 876

Tue, 07 Mar 2023 14:53:01 +0000

· Corrupt media deliberately distorts the truth and lies to the Australian people in order to advance a political agenda that is detrimental to the living standards and freedoms of every Australian.

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All Roads Lead To Higher Inflation and Hard Landing - Ep 875

Sun, 05 Mar 2023 18:28:10 +0000

· Strong week for the stock market and gold stocks.

· ECB’s inflation goals were asinine.

· The Fed will soon break its money losing record.

· Debt is going to spiral out of control.

· Big money is leaving crypto.

· Markets don’t get that inflation isn’t coming down.

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Hotter Inflation Chills Stock Market- Ep 874

Sun, 26 Feb 2023 18:42:47 +0000

· The inflation genie is impossible to put back in the bottle.

· CPI and PPI are lagging for a number of reasons.

· Beaten down stocks of 2022 enjoyed a short-lived dead cat bounce in 2023.

· Consumer spending in January surged after a record decline in tax revenue.

· The PCE is the most inaccurate way to measure inflation and it’s no coincidence that it’s also the Fed’s favorite way.

· The progress the Fed claimed to have made against inflation is already lost.

· The inverted yield curve is now even more inverted.

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The Fed Brought a Knife to an Inflation Gun Fight - Ep 873

Sun, 19 Feb 2023 18:20:49 +0000

· People who think that we've seen the worst of inflation are wrong.

· Surge in credit card debt proves labor market is weak.

· Ronald Reagan’s tax system was the closest we’ve been to a flat tax since 1913.

· Presidents’ Day is about honoring George Washington, not Joe Biden.

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CPI Shows Disinflation Trend May Have Turned - Ep 872

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 17:27:57 +0000

· Biden putting America in much more vulnerable position with continued selling of strategic oil reserves.

· Replacing full-time jobs with part-time jobs is not a sign of a strong labor market.

· The National Debt is the same thing as having a National Credit Card.

· Politicians claiming to care about Social Security are voting to destroy the value of it.

· Gold and silver will take off when investors realize inflation is not going back to 2%.

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Neither Biden nor Powell Understands the State of the Union - Ep 871

Thu, 09 Feb 2023 17:02:00 +0000

· As an American, Biden’s State of the Union was horrible.

· Inflation Reduction Act will increase prices.

· Republicans supporting Trump deficits paved the way for Biden deficits.

· Biden is cutting Social Security through inflation.

· Biden promises to save your pennies while stealing your dollars.

· More savings reduces inflation through decreased demand and increased supply.

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Risk-On, Economic Understanding Off - Ep 870

Mon, 06 Feb 2023 18:30:12 +0000

· Short covering fuels tech rally.

· Good news on the economy is bad news for the market.

· Fewer people have full-time jobs today than 10 months ago.

· The media is racist.

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The Fed Can’t Fight What It Doesn’t Understand - Ep 869

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 18:32:00 +0000

· As expected, the Fed did exactly what was expected.

· Gold trades highest it’s been in almost a year.

· Government causes inflation, not consumers.

· Investors are seeing through the outliers when it comes to stronger economic data.

· Congress acts shocked to discover fraud with PPP loans.

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Government Worsens Every Problem It Tries to Solve - Ep 868

Sun, 29 Jan 2023 18:00:00 +0000

· Weakening dollar will worsen trade deficit.

· Fed is nowhere near victory in inflation fight.

· Google does not have a monopoly on advertising.

· San Francisco wants to incentivize African Americans to commit drug crimes.

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Davos Investors Are Skiing Towards a Debt Cliff - Ep 867

Sat, 21 Jan 2023 19:00:00 +0000

· Growth stock will rollover and make new lows in 2023.

· Gold hit new 9 month high on the week.

· While tech stocks are rising, their headcounts are falling.

· New economic data blows away low-end expectations.

· 2023 could be one of the worst years ever for the dollar.

· Politicians and central bankers waste public money being hypocrites at Davos.

· Netflix documentary on Bernie Madoff proves more regulation won’t help us.

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Soaring Consumer Credit Means Higher Consumer Prices - Ep 866

Wed, 11 Jan 2023 17:43:42 +0000

· The Fed will surrender to inflation in 2023.

· Recession will be the Fed’s next battle, and they’ll lose that too.

· Inflation is expanding with money supply and credit supply.

· Consumers in debt are going out with a bang.

· Republican compromises continue to err on the side of big government.

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Gold Stocks Ring in the New Year With a Bang - Ep 865

Sat, 07 Jan 2023 18:23:35 +0000

· Investment rotation continues into value, international, emerging markets, and precious metals.

· Precious metals mining stocks are best performing sector of 2023 so far.

Expect a breakdown in the dollar and an even bigger breakout in mining stocks.

· Bitcoin is sliding a slope of hope.

· NY Attorney General files civil charges on Alex Mashinsky for Celsius fraud.

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2023 Begins Where 2022 Left Off - Ep 864

Wed, 04 Jan 2023 17:54:48 +0000

· 2023 is gearing up for a lot of volatility and weakness in the stock market.

· 2023 stock market highs may have already been made.

· NASDAQ stocks will implode when Cathie Wood turns from being biggest buyer to biggest seller.

· 2023 will likely be the year Bitcoin collapses and gold shines.

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This Time Japan Dropped a Bomb on Us - Ep 863

Sat, 24 Dec 2022 18:06:09 +0000

· Everyone realizes recession is coming, but nobody realizes how bad it will be.

· Too many people are getting rich off war in Ukraine for there to be a chance of peace.

· Gold and silver mining stocks are at the beginning of a bull market.

· Institutional interest in Bitcoin is gone.

· Bank of Japan has now joined the tightening party.

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Powell Admits He’s Clueless on the US Economy - Ep 862

Thu, 15 Dec 2022 18:10:50 +0000

· The days of low inflation are over.

· Jerome Powell threw cold water on investors’ hope.

· Terminal rate of interest continues higher.

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Bad News on Inflation Should Not Be a Surprise - Ep 861

Sun, 11 Dec 2022 18:38:44 +0000

· 2023 will see a new high-water mark in producer prices.

· Declining Coinbase stock is an ominous sign for crypto market.

· Kevin O’Leary is culpable in the FTX scam.

· Americans on the hook for Teamsters pensions.

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Investors Are Mistaken About the Fed’s Mistake - Ep 860

Wed, 07 Dec 2022 18:11:30 +0000

· Weakening economy will expand inflation

· Bitcoin is building a trapdoor, not a bottom.

· Jobs under Biden were returned, not created.

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The Dollar Breaks Down as Gold Breaks Out - Ep 859

Sun, 04 Dec 2022 18:29:09 +0000

· New jobs created indicate a weak labor market.

· Manufacturing is as weak now is it was in the worst part of the covid pandemic.

· 2023 will be an explosive year for gold and silver.

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Markets Finally Call Powell’s Bluff - Ep 858

Thu, 01 Dec 2022 18:05:23 +0000

· The next leg down in the dollar and the next leg up in gold may be here.

· High interest rates creating a glut of sellers and a lack of buyers in housing.

· 2023 will be the year that the air finally comes out of the Bitcoin bubble.

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Deja Vu All Over Again… Again – Ep 857

Sat, 26 Nov 2022 21:14:43 +0000

· Dubai is a world leader in economic freedom.
· Financial media will ignore gold stocks until they’ve tripled.
· More fraud happens under regulation than without.

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The King of Crypto Had No Clothes – Ep 856

Fri, 18 Nov 2022 18:57:50 +0000

· More economic data confirms we’re in a recession.
· Republicans gain control of the purse strings.
· Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX was a crypto Ponzi scheme.
· If you’re still holding Bitcoin, you’re the bag holder.

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In the Eye of the Inflation Hurricane – Ep 855

Wed, 16 Nov 2022 18:10:34 +0000

· Investors being lulled into false sense of security.
· More higher income shoppers turning to Walmart.
· FTX dominos continue falling.
· Donald Trump is running for president.

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Voters and Investors Keep Getting It Wrong – Ep 854

Fri, 11 Nov 2022 17:49:27 +0000

· CPI data sends stocks and bonds soaring, while dollar tanks.
· Moves of magnitude in gold suggest something significant is going on.
· Junior mining stocks are in a stealth bull market.
· Sweden is handling inflation far more responsibly than America.
· Only vote your conscience when there are no consequences.
· FTX turns out to be a Ponzi scheme perpetuating a house of cards in crypto.

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The Gold Train Has Left the Station – Ep 853

Mon, 07 Nov 2022 18:12:42 +0000

· Commodities break out of their bear market corrections.
· Tech stocks collapsing further.
· Smart money is buying gold mining stocks.
· Labor force participation rate has declined despite extra jobs.

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Powell Pulls the Hope Out From Under the Market – Ep 852

Thu, 03 Nov 2022 17:19:34 +0000

· Federal Reserve raises interest rates again as expected.
· Markets spooked as Jerome Powell dropped bombshells in Fed meeting.
· Biden administration gets fact checked and deletes tweet.
· Weakness in the stock market will continue on after the election.

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For Now, Bad News Is Good Again – Ep 851

Sun, 30 Oct 2022 17:58:20 +0000

· Dow has best October in its history.
· Rotation continues from growth to value stocks.
· Market is priced for perfection with anything but perfect circumstances.
· Inflation will never go back to 2%
· Amazon, Apple, and Netflix disappoint investors.
· Meta and Alphabet hurt by dried up advertising.
· Consumers need to save now and buy later, not buy now and pay later.
· Elon Musk buys Twitter and thanks Peter Schiff.

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Fed Folds With a Soft Pivot – Ep 850

Wed, 26 Oct 2022 17:00:37 +0000

· Interest rates are the Achilles’ heel of this bubble economy.
· Shelter costs are going up, even if housing prices are going down.
· Gold will be gaining value as the dollar loses value.

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Despite 14 Year Highs, Bond Yields Have a Long Way to Rise – Ep 849

Thu, 20 Oct 2022 17:04:38 +0000

· High inflation is here to stay.
· Biden shifts the blame for high oil prices on to Putin.
· Financial intervention and bailouts are simple politics.
· The stock market is far away from the bottom.
· Netflix and Tesla are expensive stocks.
· Markets will react before the Fed has a chance to pivot.

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Inflation Insanity Continues – Ep 848

Sat, 15 Oct 2022 17:06:53 +0000

· CPI numbers worse than investors feared.
· Less younger people working while more older people retiring is bad news for Social Security Ponzi scheme.
· Selling British Pounds for American Dollars is jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
· I’ll be debating a former Bank of England policy maker on October 22nd. Free registration at https://tradersummit.net/event-oct-2022/?ref=1019
· Bitcoin teetering on the edge of collapse.
· Precious metals holding up better than stock market, even as gold is being given away at bargain prices.

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The Fed Has Made Zero Progress Fighting Inflation – Ep 847

Sun, 09 Oct 2022 16:53:44 +0000

· Bank of England has Wall Street questioning the Fed.
· Consumers are spending and borrowing more than ever.
· Oil prices rise on OPEC+ production decrease.
· Bitcoin is very close to a major collapse.
· Michael Saylor is harming more investors than Kim Kardashian.
· Bond investors still don’t believe inflation is here to stay.

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Live Gold and Silver Update Plus Q&A – Ep 846

Mon, 03 Oct 2022 20:38:25 +0000

· Peter Schiff does a live update on the markets, particularly gold and silver prices, plus takes listener questions.

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A September Investors Hope to Forget – Ep 845

Sun, 02 Oct 2022 17:04:13 +0000

· Market has worst monthly drop since covid began, and worst September since 2008.
· Carnival Cruise sinking like the Titanic.
· CNBC finally starts criticizing Cathie Wood.
· Anyone one who dropped gold for Grayscale has lost tremendously.
· Puerto Rico needs relief from government, not hurricanes.

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Bank of England Pivots First, Fed to Follow – Ep 844

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 16:02:40 +0000

· Bank of England commits to another QE Infinity.
· Inflation is here to stay for the British.
· Reversals in the dollar and gold may mark key turning points.

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Fed’s Feigned Inflation Resolve Lifts Dollar and Sinks Stocks – Ep 843

Sun, 25 Sep 2022 19:59:15 +0000

· Huge job losses will lead to imploding earnings and exploding debt service costs.
· Gold proving to be an excellent store of value in many currencies.
· Fed will pivot to postpone financial crisis

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Powell Still Hopes to Do the Impossible – Ep 842

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 16:52:17 +0000

· Jerome Powell delivers exactly what the market expects.
· State governments’ cash will be depleted.
· Ethereum traders bought the rumor and sold the fact.
· The Fed will always choose inflation over deflation.

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FedEx Proves the Fed Can’t Deliver a Soft Landing – Ep 841

Sat, 17 Sep 2022 14:02:41 +0000

· Big losses following Suckers Rally in Bitcoin and stock market.
· The Fed will pivot when the economy starts to buckle.
· Atlanta Fed lowers their estimates for Q3 GDP.
· Silver may be showing a silver lining in gold’s cloud.
· We’re likely nowhere near a bottom in the stock market.
· One of these Mondays will be a Black Monday.
· Bond market may crash harder than stocks.
· Bond market crash has implications well beyond the stock market.

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Inflation Data Sparks Biggest Market Crash Since Covid Lockdowns – Ep 840

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 17:03:07 +0000

· Stock market has its biggest crash since 2020 covid lockdowns.
· Food prices see biggest year over year increase since 1979.
· Bitcoin gets smoked.
· Fed needs to make some hard political decisions if it wants to stop inflation.
· Get exposure to gold now before the entry point is a lot higher.

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ECB’s Inflation Fight May Knock Out the Dollar – Ep 839

Sun, 11 Sep 2022 16:39:41 +0000

· ECB hikes rates as Europe’s inflation outpaces the U.S.
· Powell admits we’re on an unsustainable fiscal path.
· The Fed is not a friend of the public. It’s the enemy.
· U.K. government will make their energy crisis worse.
· No new money is going into crypto.

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Any News Is Bad News for Stocks – Ep 838

Sun, 04 Sep 2022 16:52:51 +0000

· Inflation’s day of reckoning can’t be postponed much longer.
· Markets show risk of a Black Tuesday.
· More Bitcoin sellers above $20k than buyers below it.
· Gold bucking the downtrend in stocks.
· Higher unemployment data surprises markets.
· Putin understands the global inflation problem is the fault of the Fed and ECB.
· Biden gives dishonest and divisive speech in Philadelphia.

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Fed Can’t Solve an Inflation Problem It Doesn’t Understand – Ep 837

Wed, 31 Aug 2022 17:00:53 +0000

· Consumers have misplaced confidence.
· Job hirings shrink as job openings grow.
· Jeremy Siegel, Becky Quick, and Joe Biden compete for most ridiculous inflation comment.
· Los Angeles liberals’ virtue signaling reaches new level of idiocy.

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Powell Promises Pain, Markets Deliver – Ep 836

Sun, 28 Aug 2022 16:54:23 +0000

· Jerome Powell no longer believes the economy will have a soft landing.
· Joe Biden is creating severe moral hazards with student loan forgiveness.
· Most unsold new homes on the market since aftermath of financial crisis.
· Service sector is at its weakest since the depths of covid lockdowns.
· More consumers are relying on savings and debt.
· A Black Monday is possible.
· Bond market investors are clueless to the reality of inflation.

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Markets Push Back the Powell Pivot – Ep 835

Sun, 21 Aug 2022 16:56:32 +0000

· 4-week winning streak for S&P comes to an end.
· Investors chasing momentum.
· Not-as-weak is the new strong.
· Mortgage applications at their lowest since aftermath of dot com bubble.

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Government Can’t Do Anything Right – Ep 834

Sun, 14 Aug 2022 16:50:03 +0000

· NASDAQ loses steam.
· Rising gold and silver propels mining stocks.
· Food prices increased faster than any month since 1979.
· Consumer sentiment among Democrats tumbled to a two-year low.
· The Jones Act hurts everyone except the owners of certain ships.

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Biden Taunts Public With Inflation Victory Dance – Ep 833

Thu, 11 Aug 2022 17:03:55 +0000

· Wall Street parties on CPI data release.
· Minimum wage is bad economics.
· Democrats prepare to shakedown the middle class while protecting the billionaires and millionaires.

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The Truth Behind the Strong Job Market Hype – Ep 832

Sun, 07 Aug 2022 16:56:16 +0000

· Jobs report evidences a weak, not strong, economy.
· Putin delivered price cuts, not price hikes.
· Going into debt is not a sign of prosperity.
· More people jobless than ever before.
· Gold market shows strength.

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Damn the Recession, Rate Hikes Ahead – Ep 831

Wed, 03 Aug 2022 17:01:09 +0000

· Treasury yields surge.
· Fed forgets about inflation averaging.
· Households take on all time record debt.
· Nominal wages are going up, but real wages are collapsing.
· China can do more damage to our economy without harming Nancy Pelosi.
· Buy gold before the Chinese beat you to it.

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U.S. in Recession Amid Weak Labor Market – Ep 830

Sun, 31 Jul 2022 16:00:29 +0000

· U.S. goes into recession; Biden and Fed deny it.
· Media goes along with redefining recession.
· The Inflation Reduction Act will increase inflation.
· Forex and gold investors finally figuring things out.
· Bond investors still clueless.

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Powell Gets Democrats’ Memo to Redefine Recession – Ep 829

Thu, 28 Jul 2022 17:03:25 +0000

· Fed meets market expectations with 75 basis point rate hike.
· Jerome Powell sidesteps recession questions.
· Walmart confirms consumer weakness.
· Gold may have found a bottom.
· Gold miners rally.
· Any rally in Bitcoin is a selling opportunity.

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Recession Deniers Waking up to Reality – Ep 828

Sun, 24 Jul 2022 17:11:18 +0000

· More data pointing to a worsening economy.
· ECB hikes rates for first time in 11 years.
· Dollar looks to have topped out.
· Gold looks to have bottomed.
· Tech companies hurting as advertisers flee.

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Unwarranted Optimism Lifts Stocks, Pressures Gold – Ep 827

Thu, 21 Jul 2022 17:19:01 +0000

· U.S. stock markets rally.
· Home builder sentiment will go from new highs to new lows.
· Elon Musk dumps Bitcoin.
· Taxes in California are higher than Sweden.
· American standard of living has declined since the 1960’s.

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A Tale of Two Dollars – Ep 826

Sun, 17 Jul 2022 17:00:37 +0000

· Consumer prices reported hotter than expected.
· Dollar is rising on the greater fool theory.
· Inflation is not a product of expectations.
· It's good politics to talk about fighting inflation. It's horrible politics to actually fight it.
· Investors sheltering in the U.S. dollar abroad are in for a rude awakening.

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Official Inflation Hits Another New High – Ep 825

Thu, 14 Jul 2022 16:00:20 +0000

· Inflation is soaring across the world.
· U.S. monetary and fiscal policies are at odds with each other.
· Motor vehicle repair costs have highest increase since the 1974.
· Dollar rises as gold tanks.
· Gold stocks are at bargain prices.
· Don’t fall for bait and switch scams from gold and silver dealers.

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A Surge in Moonlighting Evidences Weakness Not Strength – Ep 824

Sun, 10 Jul 2022 17:29:54 +0000

· Dollar strengthened and gold tanked.
· Needing a second crappy job is not good news for the economy.
· Shinzo Abe was assassinated before he could be held accountable for his disastrous economic policies.
· Peter Schiff was right about Elon Musk’s Twitter bluff.
· Bitcoin big shot advocates for government regulation against alt coin competitors.

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Atlanta Fed Finally Forecasts Recession – Ep 823

Sun, 03 Jul 2022 17:02:36 +0000

· Atlanta Fed blindsided with negative GDO numbers.
· Labor force participation rate near its lows.
· Biden’s approval rating reaches new low.
· Gold investments will pay off big.

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A Truly Independent Fed Would Criticize Bad Fiscal Policy – Ep 822

Sun, 26 Jun 2022 17:00:13 +0000

· Gold less volatile than stock market indexes.
· Bitcoin more volatile than stock market indexes.
· Rising interest rates pushing up deficit.
· Abortion laws should be left to the states.
· Democrats are only pro-choice when it comes to abortions.
· The Patriot Act should have been called the Anti-Privacy Act.

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Recession Rears Uglier Head Than Inflation – Ep 821

Thu, 23 Jun 2022 17:03:47 +0000

· Dow Jones just did something it hasn't done since the great depression.
· Rates in the UK and Japan headed higher.
· Weakness and volatility in crypto markets.
· Government moves to ban Juul vapes.
· Jerome Powell uses politics as an excuse.

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75 Basis Point Rate Hike May Signal Peak Hawkishness – Ep 820

Thu, 16 Jun 2022 17:01:08 +0000

· Fed makes biggest rate hike move in 28 years.
· Powell makes excuses for Fed’s role in causing inflation.
· Credit card debt at all time high while credit card interest surges.
· Atlanta Fed predicts zero growth for second quarter.
· Green New Deal Democrats should embrace higher oil prices.
· Gold shows strong support at $1800.
· CNBC gives Michael Saylor a podium to keep pumping Bitcoin.

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The Bull Market Is Dead. The Bear May Live Long. – Ep 819

Tue, 14 Jun 2022 17:01:21 +0000

· Dow is now the only major index not in a bear market.
· Bitcoin and Ethereum have a Black Monday.
· Highest inflation in US history will be game changer for dollar and precious metals.
· Google settles frivolous lawsuit.
· Bitcoin pumpers lower the bar.
· Celsius crypto accounts frozen.

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Peak Inflation Was Transitory – Ep 818

Sat, 11 Jun 2022 17:43:02 +0000

· Inflation beat expectations by a wide margin.
· Consumers more pessimistic now than in depth of Covid lockdowns.
· CNBC ridicules David Einhorn for recommending gold investing.
· Investors selling both the rumor and the fact.
· Christine Lagarde said nothing hawkish.
· Recession will kick inflation into a new gear.
· Gold stocks unexpected victim of inflation.
· Government causes inflation, not prices.
· Putin calls out Biden for lying about price hikes.

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The US Economy Gets Weaker as Inflation Gets Stronger – Ep 817

Wed, 08 Jun 2022 17:02:24 +0000

· Food prices headed higher.
· Energy prices headed higher.
· Chief is not an offensive word to Native Americans.
· Inflation is not the private sector’s fault

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Jobs Are a Lagging Indicator – Ep 816

Sat, 04 Jun 2022 16:59:12 +0000

· Encouraging action in gold stocks.
· America has never been in a weaker position to fight inflation.
· Busts are the solution to artificial booms.

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Biden Passes the Buck on Inflation – Ep 815

Wed, 01 Jun 2022 17:07:26 +0000

· Investors come back selling.
· Crypto among worst performers of May.
· Gold stocks are in a buying opportunity.
· Germany is the key to the European Union.
· Biden outlines a plan for fighting inflation.
· Oil will continue spiking because of Biden, not Putin.

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Don’t Buy a Bear Market Rally – Ep 814

Sun, 29 May 2022 17:04:52 +0000

· Bull trap fooling investors.
· Bitcoin did not participate in the rally.
· Homeowners will make money as debtors.
· The Fed postponing recession will result in decades of inflation.

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🔴 The Devil Returns to Collect America’s Soul – Ep 813

Wed, 25 May 2022 16:55:18 +0000

· Dow on its longest losing streak in 100 years.
· Snapchat implodes.
· Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch investors learn a hard lesson.
· Inflation can no longer be solved with higher interest rates.
· Even rigged CPI can’t hide rising prices now.
· Ruble strength proves sanctions didn’t work.
· Bitcoin shows surprising resilience... for now.

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It Was the “Strong” Economy That Was Transitory – Ep 812

Fri, 20 May 2022 16:51:21 +0000

· Dow and S&P see biggest drop since the pandemic.
· Walmart was the jab. Target was the knockout punch.
· Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen show strength.

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Powell Admits Soft Landing May Be Bumpy – Ep 811

Wed, 18 May 2022 18:43:29 +0000

· Americans are spending more, but buying less.
· Jeff Bezos calls out Joe Biden.
· Businesses are absorbing costs, not gouging prices.
· Ben Bernanke is right about Bitcoin.
· Brace yourself for an economic crash.

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Consumers Worried About Inflation. Investors Worried About the Fight. – Ep 810

Sun, 15 May 2022 17:13:52 +0000

· More downside to go as investors panic buy stocks.
· Robinhood will ultimately go bankrupt.
· Jerome Powell gets reappointed as Fed chair.
· Consumers are borrowing more, despite rate hikes.
· Oil positioning for a big move up.

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Bitcoin May Luna After All – Ep 809

Thu, 12 May 2022 17:17:54 +0000

· Gold and silver remain strong while gold and silver miners continue caving.
· Lisa Cook was not the most qualified person for the FOMC.
· Neel Kashkari had a Freudian slip.
· Companies are imploding and massive layoffs are coming.
· Crypto is collapsing.

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Black Monday 2: Electric Boogaloo – Ep 808

Tue, 10 May 2022 17:02:14 +0000

· Investors resorted to indiscriminate selling amidst today’s carnage.
· The Fed can’t do the impossible.
· Housing foreclosures will go through the roof.
· Covid shutdowns were just a dress rehearsal for what’s coming next.
· Weak hands sold precious metals today.

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The Fed Has Already Lost the Inflation Fight – Ep 807

Sat, 07 May 2022 04:00:59 +0000

· Stock market gets clobbered.
· Crypto market gets clobbered.
· Markets still closer to the top than the bottom.
· Productivity sees biggest drop since 1947.
· We may already be in an inflationary depression.

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Fed Hawks Turn Chicken – Ep 806

Thu, 05 May 2022 17:57:58 +0000

· Fed raises benchmark interest rates higher than it has in 20 years.
· Lyft stock hits 52 week low.
· Jerome Powell admires Paul Volcker, but not for his policies.
· New York Times argues for less courage and more cowardice.

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GDP & Stocks Down + Inflation Up = Recession – Ep 805

Sun, 01 May 2022 18:14:23 +0000

· NASDAQ has worst first 4 months since 1971.
· S&P has worst first 4 months since 1939.
· FANG stocks enter bear market.
· Prices increasing faster than wages.
· Cathie Wood is the guru of mindless meme stock investing.
· Bitcoin HODLers are deer staring into the headlights of a Mack truck.

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Outrageous Positive Spin on Negative GDP – Ep 804

Fri, 29 Apr 2022 17:12:19 +0000

· Mortgage are rates too high for anyone to refinance for better rates.
· Markets rally on horrific economic news.
· Russia ranks higher than Ukraine in economic freedom.

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Good Politics Is Bad Economics – Ep 803

Wed, 27 Apr 2022 17:09:24 +0000

· Elon Musk buys Twitter.
· NASDAQ has weakest day since September of 2020.
· Indonesia bans palm oil exports.
· Bad politics are good for the economy.

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Investors on High Wire Without Fed’s Net – Ep 802

Sat, 23 Apr 2022 17:05:03 +0000

· Jerome Powell triggers market selloff after IMF roundtable comments.
· Higher inflation is lowering the minimum wage’s barrier of entry.
· Bill Ackman loses almost half a billion dollars on his recent Netflix bet.
· Bitcoin will crash hard once Paul Tudor Jones bails on it.
· Elon Musk’s Twitter funding is dangerous for Tesla’s stock.
· Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund may hit new lows on Monday.
· Loses are just getting started in Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge funds.
· FOMC egos are the only thing bigger than the economic bubble.
· Gold bull market is being birthed as crypto bull market dies.

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The Inflation Monster May Devastate Japan First – Ep 801

Wed, 20 Apr 2022 17:08:36 +0000

· Netflix loses subscribers.
· Incomes are collapsing at an unprecedented rate.
· We're probably in a bear market that will last at least a decade.
· Slow motion disaster is playing out in Japan.
· Sanctions may end up benefiting Russia.

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Risk of Market Crash Keeps Rising – Ep 800

Sat, 16 Apr 2022 17:03:20 +0000

· If the bond market doesn’t crash, the stock market will.
· Weakness continues in tech and crypto.
· Gold and silver mining stocks show strength.
· We’ve never had this much inflation and the Fed has never been this far behind the curve.
· Elon Musk is bluffing.

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Peak Inflation Is Wishful Thinking – Ep 799

Wed, 13 Apr 2022 19:13:42 +0000

* Inflation is double what the Fed admits.
* March budget deficit is quadruple consensus expectations.
* Bitcoin struggles.
* The retired won’t be able to stay retired much longer.
* Dollar outlier signals its last hurrah.

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Something’s Gotta Give – Ep 798

Sun, 10 Apr 2022 17:44:08 +0000

* Bond bulls haven’t thrown in the towel yet.
* Biden wants to expand Obamacare.
* Bitcoin moves from diamond hands to paper hands.

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It’s Much Later Than the Fed Thinks – Ep 797

Fri, 08 Apr 2022 17:45:49 +0000

* You can't have normal interest rates unless you have normal inflation.
* Politicians are pandering to crypto enthusiasts.
* Peter Thiel delivers pie in the sky speech at Miami Bitcoin Conference.
* The only time government can do good, is when it undoes bad things it’s previously done.
* The constitution doesn’t authorize the federal government to ban marijuana or any other drugs.

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Fed Doves Pretending to Be Inflation Hawks Are Chickenhawks – Ep 796

Wed, 06 Apr 2022 01:06:39 +0000

* Bond market continues getting beaten up.
* Lael Brainard spooks the markets with sudden hawk talk.
* When you live in a glass White House, don’t throw stones.
* Sanctions created a bottom and bull market for the Russian ruble.

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Q1 Ends as Market and Economic Pain Begins – Ep 795

Sat, 02 Apr 2022 17:42:35 +0000

* Fools bought the dip in March.
* Don’t wait to sell in May and go away.
* Cathie Wood turns down debate invitation.
* Meme stocks pumped, peaked, and dumped.
* Dollar’s tailwind in Q1 will become a headwind in Q2.
* Bonds suffer their worst quarter in 40 years.
* Commodities experience their best quarter in 32 years.
* America is headed for stagflation.

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German CPI Exposes ECB’s Low Inflation Lies – Ep 794

Thu, 31 Mar 2022 01:20:12 +0000

* Europe has a serious inflation problem.
* The ECB says the cost of living isn’t rising fast enough.
* Politicians and central bankers are using covid and Putin as scapegoats for inflation.
* The bigger the government, the bigger the problems.
* Gold and oil react to peace talks in Ukraine.

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The Fed Will Be Turning Japanese, I Really Think So – Ep 793

Mon, 28 Mar 2022 23:57:55 +0000

* Japanese will pay higher taxes, officially or through inflation.
* All bonds, not just treasuries, will fall in price.
* Biden calls for new wealth tax.

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Stock Investors Bathing in Bond Blood Bath – Ep 792

Sat, 26 Mar 2022 18:30:57 +0000

* Bond market has worst quarter since 1980.
* Recession will not take care of inflation.
* Mortgage rates will double far sooner than income.
* Gold stocks outperforming tech stocks is a sign of things changing.
* Biden will prolong the Russian invasion to scapegoat inflation crisis.
* Ukraine is fighting for sovereignty, not freedom.
* Idiot reporter asks Biden stupidest question ever.

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Government Solutions Worsen Every Problem Government Creates – Ep 791

Fri, 25 Mar 2022 00:07:42 +0000

* Stocks are going up and down while gold is just going up.
* Bond prices are a function of government intervention and nothing else.
* Bitcoin, tech, and meme stocks caught up in bear market rally.
* Democrats’ Gas Rebate Act will fuel the inflation fire.

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Inflation Far Bigger Threat Than Investors Expect – Ep 790

Wed, 23 Mar 2022 00:28:44 +0000

* Everything-is-awesome attitude won’t last long much longer.
* Stagflation is here.
* This round of QE won’t be like the last 4.
* The economy has never been as addicted to cheap money as it is now.
* Bond investors will begin to realize that bonds are mispriced.
* We’ve been making our inflation bed for years and now it’s time to lay in it.

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Stocks Soar as My Reputation Tanks – Ep 789

Sat, 19 Mar 2022 18:16:10 +0000

* Investors buy the fact after selling the rumor.
* Fed will raise rates until it can’t.
* The emperor’s new clothes is Zelensky’s t-shirt.

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The Most Anticipated Yet Least Significant Rate Hike Ever – Ep 788

Thu, 17 Mar 2022 02:33:07 +0000

* Elizabeth Warren blames covid and corporations for problems caused by Congress.
* Bond market thinks the recession will cure inflation; it won't.
* Congressional staffers get a huge pay raise, paid by taxpayers.
* Small rate hikes will hurt the stock market, not the gold market.
* Fed is doing the minimum it can get away with to try to save face.
* You live by low interest rates, you die by high interest rates.

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The U.S. Has More to Lose Than Russia – Ep 787

Sat, 12 Mar 2022 20:28:48 +0000

* Record highs coming for oil.
* Dollar rallies into its last hurrah.
* Don’t throw stones when you live in a glass White House.
* Consumers wrongfully expecting inflation relief.
* Russia is not causing inflation, the U.S. government is.
* Biden is interfering with job creation, not improving it.
* Inflation is one of the few things still made in America.

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Gold Is the Safest Haven – Ep 786

Fri, 11 Mar 2022 02:59:25 +0000

* Joe Biden’s executive order will hurt Bitcoin.
* Elizabeth Warren has a deep seated hatred for Bitcoin.
* Biden displays cringe level hypocrisy on oil companies.
* Gold miners will make far more money than investors think.
* Watch out for gold scams.

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Gold to the Moon, Bitcoin Stuck on Earth – Ep 785

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 03:33:16 +0000

* Biden bans Russian imports.
* Oil push higher.
* Dow enters into correction territory.
* S&P plunges deeper into correction.
* Russell 2000 and NASDAQ enter bear markets.
* Gold hits new all time high.
* US economy hemorrhaging red ink.
* Bitcoin is setting up for a crash to zero.

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The Road to Debt Monetization Is Paved With Good Intentions – Ep 784

Sat, 05 Mar 2022 18:14:39 +0000

* China will begin selling more US dollars and treasuries.
* Food and energy prices surge.
* Biden’s State of the Union was misinformation.
* Jerome Powell skips SOTU to prepare his own lies.

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Russia Is the Newest Excuse Variant – Ep 783

Tue, 01 Mar 2022 18:58:04 +0000

* Russian economy gets cut off from the world.
* Russian stocks obliterated.
* Investors should stop questioning gold and start buying it.
* Russia will replace Covid as the Fed’s scapegoat.
* As the streets get bloodier, the opportunities get bigger.

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Biden’s Supreme Court Pick Will Ignore the Constitution – Ep 782

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 22:43:59 +0000

* Democrats hate the constitution.
* The constitution doesn’t need to be interpreted.
* Republics protect the minority from the majority.
* Founding fathers warned of the evils of democracy.
* You can’t have liberty in a democracy, but you can in a republic.
* The constitution was written to protect against democracy.
* The government that governs best, governs least.

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What if the World Sanctions America? – Ep 781

Fri, 25 Feb 2022 02:58:17 +0000

* Russian stock market loses big.
* Gold’s bullish story strengthens.
* Sanctions will have ramifications beyond Russian borders.
* Joe Biden does a premature victory dance.

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Sanctions for Russia Mean Higher Inflation for America – Ep 780

Wed, 23 Feb 2022 03:13:12 +0000

* Bad presidents, like Joe Biden, do not deserve to be honored on Presidents Day.
* George Washington was the greatest American in history.
* Joe Biden avoids taking questions to avoid giving stupid answers.
* Government’s solution to the energy crisis will be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
* NATO should have been disbanded with the fall of the Soviet Union.
* Bitcoin leads risk assets lower, in the opposite direction of gold.
* Markets are reacting more to inflation fears than concerns over Russia and Ukraine.
* Buying Bitcoin is better than shorting gold.
* Hex coin scam epitomizes the problems with Bitcoin.

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Recession Will Make the Inflation Problem Worse – Ep 779

Sat, 19 Feb 2022 17:55:47 +0000

* Supply will decrease faster than demand.
* Fed will fight recession with more inflation.
* Democrats bribing voters with gas tax holiday.
* American investors watching their wealth evaporate.
* Falling Bitcoin proves it’s a poor hedge against the rising inflation.
* Russia invading Ukraine is the noise. Inflation is the music.
* Dry powder in cash is getting wet.
* The trend is not your friend if you’re Cathie Wood.

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The Fed Is Running Out of Minutes – Ep 778

Thu, 17 Feb 2022 01:17:15 +0000

* Economic data blows away expectations.
* Wages are a price and prices are going up because of inflation.
* Keynesians can’t even follow their own playbook.
* Real demand is determined by supply.
* Don’t take free heroin just because you don’t want to waste it.
* Fed hawks went the way of the dodo bird.
* Fed policy is the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt’s Big Stick policy.

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It’s Mission Impossible for the Fed – Ep 777

Sat, 12 Feb 2022 17:50:06 +0000

* Value stocks becoming the new momentum stocks.
* Previous momentum stocks pick up momentum in the wrong direction.
* Bitcoin’s reaction to Russia Ukraine tensions prove it’s the opposite of a safe haven.
* Consumer sentiment at its gloomiest in 11 years.
* Worst inflation numbers since 1982.
* Companies like Peloton hiding their price increases in delivery and service fees.
* Government is deliberately cooking the books on the CPI.

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Markets Miss Important Fed Admission – Ep 776

Thu, 10 Feb 2022 01:50:36 +0000

* Momentum stocks rally.
* Gold inches higher under everyone’s radar.
* Investors distracted by Bitcoin’s bear market rally.
* Atlanta Fed President Bostic admits policy will be less loose, not tight.
* Original CPI change was intended as a stealth way to cut social security.
* Unemployment numbers don’t count people with covid.
* New jobs are currently being created by statisticians, not employers.

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The Fed Will Lose an Inflation Fight – Ep 775

Sat, 05 Feb 2022 20:29:20 +0000

* Surprise earnings send Nasdaq on a roller coaster.
* Companies are paying the price for not raising their prices.
* Bitcoin trading above $40k, perhaps for the last time.
* $10/gallon gasoline on the horizon.
* Rising Euro will be problematic for the US economy.
* Jobs report reveals strength in inflation, not the labor market.
* Gold market shows investors are waking up to the Fed’s failing inflation fight.
* Markets punish discrimination; government rewards discrimination.
* Washington DC should pick a more appropriate name for their football team.

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Sell the Rip, Don’t Buy the Dip – Ep 774

Thu, 03 Feb 2022 03:09:25 +0000

* The stock market is rotating, not crashing.
* Weak economic data will make it harder for the Fed to tighten.
* Fed may begin blaming rising oil prices on economic slowdown.
* Market will assign premium to companies producing earnings and paying dividends.
* Facebook abandons their cryptocurrency project, Libra.
* 6 more weeks of winter is nothing compare to the crypto winter ahead.
* National debt reaches $30 Trillion.
* The dollar is Monopoly money held up by a giant Ponzi scheme.

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The Bigger the Bubble, the Smaller the Pin – Ep 773

Sat, 29 Jan 2022 18:18:34 +0000

* January could end up being the worst month ever in the stock market.
* Worst is yet to come for Robinhood.
* Fed’s hawkish talk pushing the dollar higher and gold lower.
* Value investments continue to outperform growth investments.
* Consumers are buying less, but spending more.

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No Pivot: Powell Put Expires – Ep 772

Thu, 27 Jan 2022 03:10:15 +0000

* Jerome Powell surprises no one in FOMC meeting.
* Tesla is not Microsoft.
* Hedge fund sharks will smell blood on Cathie Wood.
* Bullish gold news ignored by traders.
* Powell confuses economic strength for an economic bubble.

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A Stock and Crypto Reversal, but Not a Bottom – Ep 771

Tue, 25 Jan 2022 02:03:57 +0000

* Stocks pump on potential Powell pivot.
* Fed trying to prevent its credibility and the market from imploding.
* More than two thirds of Bitcoin holders are underwater on their purchase.
* The gold standard didn’t fail.

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Risk Assets Crash Tests Fed’s Resolve – Ep 770

Sat, 22 Jan 2022 20:29:12 +0000

* Fed’s talk pricked the mother of all bubbles.
* Netflix becomes a victim of its own success.
* Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund sees an entire bear market in one week.
* Investors are no longer taking refuge in the US dollar.
* Tether is an accident waiting to happen.
* Pumpers are now conceding that Bitcoin is correlated to risk assets.
* There is no basis for owning Bitcoin.

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The Most Obvious Crisis Almost No One Saw Coming – Ep 769

Wed, 19 Jan 2022 00:52:11 +0000

* Stock market is in bad shape, but bond market is worse.
* Silver rallies.
* Any negative yield in bonds is a positive for gold.
* Numbers on economy getting weaker as numbers on inflation get stronger.
* Fed can’t fix an inflation induced recession with more inflationary policies.
* The crash I wrote about in my 2007 book, Crashproof, is happening right now.

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2022 Kicks off the Great Rotation – Ep 768

Sat, 15 Jan 2022 20:39:31 +0000

* Oil prices headed for record highs.
* Massive rotation from growth stocks to value stocks in effect.
* Investors rushing to dump Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund.
* Grayscale Bitcoin Trust follows growth stocks decline.
* Gold will follow oil’s breakout.
* Lael Brainard should be fired, not promoted.
* The Fed is saving some jobs… the unproductive ones.
* Quantitative Easing has a disproportionately negative impact on minorities.

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Fed Unveils Field of Dreams Monetary Policy – Ep 767

Thu, 13 Jan 2022 03:44:48 +0000

* Official CPI is at its worst in 39 years.
* Real CPI is at its worst in history.
* Investors beginning to realize that the Fed is too little too late.
* Elizabeth Warren wants the Fed to blame inflation on price gouging.
* Democrats are laying the foundation for price controls.
* Paul Tudor Jones believes Bitcoin will do poorly in 2022.

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Less Loose Will Lower Markets, Not Inflation – Ep 766

Sat, 08 Jan 2022 03:36:55 +0000

* Stock market off to a bad start for first week of trading in 2022.
* Fed minutes send bond markets tanking.
* Investors spooked out of speculative bets and into commodities.
* Inflation pressure building on producers and consumers.
* Workers fall further behind as prices increase faster than wages.
* Bitcoin chart looking ominous.
* El Salvador is underwater on their Bitcoin bet.
* Microstrategy balance sheet will soon have a big hole in it soon.
* Michael Saylor talks out of both sides of his mouth about US Dollar.
* NASA agrees, gold has intrinsic value.

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The Year of Living Dangerously in Review – Ep 765

Wed, 05 Jan 2022 02:56:16 +0000

Peak speculation in 2021 lead to meme stocks, silly named crypto, NFTs, and all time record highs for:

* Issuance of SPACS
* Mergers & acquisitions
* Corporate buy-backs
* IPOs from money losing companies
* IPOs from regular companies
* Home loans
* Trade deficit
* Government borrowing in a non-recession year
* Bitcoin price

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2021: A Year of Peak Speculation – Ep 764

Fri, 31 Dec 2021 04:30:32 +0000

* Everyone is talking about inflation.
* Fed is re-rigging the CPI again to hide increasing inflation.
* Strong economies create surpluses, not deficits.
* US is importing more and exporting less.
* Prices up on lumber and other commodities.
* Bitcoin stole gold’s thunder in 2021.
* 2021 was a great year for Bitcoin sellers, but not buyers.

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Peak Inflation Is Nowhere in Sight – Ep 763

Fri, 24 Dec 2021 15:55:58 +0000

* Santa Claus rally comes early.
* Even Fed’s sugarcoated data shows inflation twice has high as their target.
* Gold may be turning its $1800 ceiling into a floor.
* Bitcoin pumps with risk assets.
* Record GBTC discount shows investors are losing interest in Bitcoin.
* Inflation will peak when people least expect it.
* Elon Musk wrote the biggest tax check to the US government in history.
* Elizabeth Warren is a freeloader.

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The Era of Low Inflation Was Transitory – Ep 762

Sat, 18 Dec 2021 19:45:44 +0000

* Chinese imports have kept a lid on goods prices, but not services.
* Dollar will decline when foreign investors no longer want US stocks.
* We now have more inflation and less ability to deal with it than in the 1970s.
* US may soon trade used American cars for used Chinese bikes.
* The US Dollar is still backed by more than Bitcoin is.

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A Dove Can’t Change Its Feathers – Ep 761

Thu, 16 Dec 2021 04:10:30 +0000

* Elizabeth Warren blames inflation on greedy business owners.
* Producers aren’t price gouging. They’re being gouged.
* Fed should stop QE now, not just taper it.
* Retail consumers are buying less and paying more.
* Congress raises the debt ceiling $2.5 Trillion.
* History will judge Jerome Powell before his second term ends.

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Government Rigged the CPI to Understate Inflation – Ep 760

Sat, 11 Dec 2021 21:03:35 +0000

* October and November see biggest back to back CPI increase of the year.
* 2021 inflation was worse than any year in the 1970s.
* Rigged CPI adds to government revenue.
* Jussie Smollett hangs himself with fake noose story.

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Crypto Hearing: Irony, Lies, and Hypocrisy – Ep 759

Fri, 10 Dec 2021 03:43:09 +0000

* Bitcoin continues to lose ground to Ethereum.
* Maxine Waters leads Congressional hearing on crypto.
* FDIC made banking less safe.
* Bitcoin competes with 14,000 other cryptocurrencies, but not the US dollar.
* Michael Saylor sails off the deep end.
* Bitcoin will lead to greater racial divide in wealth.
* Discount on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shows institutions are not rushing into Bitcoin.
* Ark Invest launches new Transparency ETF.
* Cathie Wood is the epitome of “this time it’s different”
* Most people have lost money who have invested in Ark ETFs.

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A Fed Policy Error That Will Live In Infamy – Ep 758

Wed, 08 Dec 2021 03:43:29 +0000

* Markets recover most all of their Black Friday losses.
* Fed can’t fight inflation without deflating inflated economic bubble.
* Data shows biggest drop in productivity in 62 years.
* Consumer prices are headed much higher.
* Real wages are headed much lower.
* Bitcoin is a lousy store of value in terms of Ethereum.
* Americans made real sacrifices during World War 2, not during the war on Covid.
* US would have to fund a war with China by borrowing money from China.

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Do Weak Stocks in Dec. Portend Fed Ease in Jan? – Ep 757

Sat, 04 Dec 2021 21:15:34 +0000

* Nasdaq suffers worst start to December in 20 years.
* Stay-at-home darling stocks crash with no bottom in sight.
* Covid is the gift that keeps on giving the Fed excuses.
* Real unemployment rate is much higher than 10%.
* Biggest fools now are those buying Bitcoin.
* Maxine Waters pats herself on the back for giving away other people’s money.
* Janet Yellen wants to postpone big catastrophe now for bigger catastrophe later.
* Jerome Powell admits he now sees a substantial risk of persistent inflation.

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Powell Finally Admits Inflation Isn’t Transitory – Ep 756

Wed, 01 Dec 2021 04:21:10 +0000

* Dow down over 1300 points in 2 days over Omicron variant concerns.
* Bubble market found its pin.
* Powell is essentially a member of the Biden administration.
* The only tools the Fed has left will destroy the bubble economy if they use them.
* Powell lies about the credit worthiness of the US.
* Ray Dalio says the only thing the Fed will successfully raise will be prices.
* Build Back better targets the middle class with new bank account monitoring.

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Black Friday Leaves Investors Black and Blue – Ep 755

Sat, 27 Nov 2021 23:18:35 +0000

* Covid crashes market again with new Omicron Strain.
* Dow suffers its worst drop since Covid lockdowns started.
* Investors choose Euro and Swiss Franc over US Dollar as safe haven.
* Markets begin pricing out rate hikes that they previously priced in.
* Smart money dumps crypto while dumb money buys the dips.

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Thanksgiving: How Capitalism Saved America From Socialism – Ep 754

Thu, 25 Nov 2021 18:59:13 +0000

* 2021 marks the most expensive Thanksgiving dinner ever.
* Oil companies can’t pump oil as fast as the Fed can print money.
* Pilgrims set sail for Communism, but landed on Capitalism.
* Desperate Americans look to crypto as a ticket to wealth.
* Bitcoin is fiat and people will lose faith in it like other fiats.
* Alex Mashinsky of Celsius tells desperate Americans to take out loans to buy Bitcoin.
* CNBC hosts an hour-long special shilling Bitcoin.
* Cathie Woods is bullish on Bitcoin, but expects deflation.
* Wherever inflation starts, it always ends up at the supermarket.
* Fed can’t fight inflation and bail out the housing market at the same time.
* Even Fed’s preferred data shows they are miles above their inflation target.

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The Devil You Know Is Still a Devil – Ep 753

Wed, 24 Nov 2021 03:43:48 +0000

* Biden reappoints Powel as Fed Chairman and promotes Brainard to Vice Chair.
* Gold sells off and dollar rises on Fed news.
* Investors worried about inflation under Powell two days ago now celebrate Powell’s reappointment.
* If Biden wanted to fight inflation, he’d stop creating it.
* Generation of entitled American socialists don’t think stealing is wrong.
* MSNBC promotes racism.
* Law abiding citizens don’t use cars or guns to kill people.
* Rittenhouse trial being used to promote Communism.

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Rittenhouse Innocent, Government Guilty on All Accounts – Ep 752

Sat, 20 Nov 2021 03:48:08 +0000

* Socialists are the only ones who believe Biden’s bill will Build Back Better.
* Democrats accidentally admit that inflation is caused by expanding deficit and money printing.
* The rich don’t have to cheat on their taxes like the middle class does.
* Government wants to give all workers a 4 week paid vacation every year.
* Government attack on civil liberties has crypto crowd concerned.
* Kyle Rittenhouse innocent on all accounts.

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Government Recycles 1970s Inflation Propaganda – Ep 751

Wed, 17 Nov 2021 04:41:59 +0000

* Janet Yellen lies to the nation.
* The Fed doesn’t want to let the peoples’ cost of living decrease.
* 2% inflation isn’t a target; it’s a floor.
* Retail investors move from bubble to bubble without learning any lessons.
* Sell your Bitcoin before Logan Paul’s audience does.

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Fed’s Credibility Is Transitory, Not Inflation – Ep 750

Sat, 13 Nov 2021 23:13:40 +0000

* CPI data heavily contradicts Fed’s transitory inflation narrative.
* Reagan was more popular during a recession than Biden is during this “booming” economy.
* The government has too much money on the line not to lie about inflation.
* Media’s bias taints their inflation reporting.
* Federal Reserve can print money, but they can’t print stuff.
* Biden’s Build Back Better plan would have even Keynes rolling in his grave.
* Biden considers releasing US strategic oil reserves to China.
* Consumer sentiment plunges.
* Gold price surges.
* Fed won’t try to fight inflation because it will reveal their weak position.
* Fed’s policy: Speak loudly when you have no stick.
* Falling dollar will be the next domino to fall.
* Record number of Americans tell their employer to take job and shove it.
* Bitcoin whales conning institutions and bribing politicians.

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Consumers on the Hook for Rising Producer Prices – Ep 749

Wed, 10 Nov 2021 16:02:43 +0000

* Supply shortages exacerbated by consumers reading the inflation writing on the wall.
* Gas prices at the pump close to all time record highs in most of the country.
* Dollar is being propped up by taper.
* The crypto market has flipped the gold market.
* Joe Biden looks to replace Jerome Powell with Lael Brainard.
* Is Elon Musk sending a message to the government, or is he trying to sneak out of his overpriced Tesla stock?
* Government should be financed through consumption, not income.

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Gold’s Surprise Rally Shows Sellers Are Exhausted – Ep 748

Sat, 06 Nov 2021 21:18:59 +0000

* Press knows Biden doesn’t have the aptitude to even answer softball questions.
* Record high stock market eyes blue skies ahead.
* As Peloton bikes become overpriced clothes racks, Peloton stock becomes dirty laundry.
* Gold may end up being the pin that pricks the Bitcoin bubble.
* The IRS tricked the middle class.

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Fed Finally Launches the Taper, Now What? – Ep 747

Thu, 04 Nov 2021 02:49:49 +0000

* Markets blessed Fed’s decision to begin tapering.
* Jerome Powell says economy is healthy, but requires monetary policy of an economy in crisis.
* Full employment is subjective and rarely achieved.
* Powellnomics: It’s inappropriate to have interest rates above 0% in an economy that’s not at 100% employment.
* Fed knows the economy is hanging by a threads, and that thread is 0% interest rates.
* It doesn’t matter who the President of the United States is. What matters is who runs the Federal Reserve.
* Dollar falling may be investors buying the rumor and selling the news.
* No bad news in sight for gold, and no good news in sight for the dollar.
* Don’t pick up pennies in front of steam rollers.
* Zillow’s moronic house flipping business model caves.
* Don’t confuse brains for a bull market or a bubble.
* Taper is fully priced into gold and silver market.
* Don’t jump onto a moving train; get on it before it leaves the station.

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Shiba Inu Highlights Bitcoin’s Lack of Scarcity – Ep 746

Sat, 30 Oct 2021 21:42:11 +0000

* Nasdaq and S&P finish the week strong.
* Robinhood closes the week near its all time low.
* Newmont leads gold mining stocks lower.
* Gold mines don’t lose missed earnings, they postpone them.
* Crypto ships will rise and sink on the same tide of fear and greed.
* Inflation is driving up labor costs.
* Hypocrisy is the one thing all politicians have in common.

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Markets Can’t Ignore Exploding Trade Deficits Forever – Ep 745

Fri, 29 Oct 2021 01:03:12 +0000

* US dollar would tank if traders understood implications of economic data.
* Trade deficit continues to break records month after month.
* Strong economies have trade surpluses; we have a bubble economy.
* We’re only consuming and importing because we’re printing a currency the world still values.
* Massive trade deficits aren’t a problem until they’re a crisis.
* Government pretends rights are privileges so it can tax them.
* Moral hazard and rampant fraud will ramp up childcare costs under new Biden plan.

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Irrational Exuberance on Steroids – Ep 744

Wed, 27 Oct 2021 02:32:48 +0000

* Elon Musk needs a rocket ship to find Tesla’s PE.
* Bakkt Holdings rises on crypto partnership with MasterCard.
* Jack Dorsey warns of imminent hyperinflation.
* Stanley Druckenmiller doesn’t realize the Fed is the problem.
* When politicians aim their weapons at the billionaires, they always hit the middle class the hardest.

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Written off for Dead, Gold Comes Back to Life – Ep 743

Sat, 23 Oct 2021 02:53:23 +0000

* Netflix and Tesla stocks make all time highs.
* Trump SPAC makes a splash.
* Investors buying WeWork SPAC are putting lipstick on a pig.
* Gold price gains on inflation news, which means bigger gains may be around the corner.
* Oil price increases while oil production decreases.
* Inflation in 2022 will eclipse inflation in 2021.
* Weak economic indicators signal the opposite of a booming economy.
* Inflation is the government’s silent partner.
* America’s increased spending and reduced production will be paid for with inflation.
* Bitcoin ETF flops.
* Logan Paul and Peter Schiff is the collab we didn’t know we needed.

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Inflation Is Not the Price of Prosperity – Ep 742

Wed, 20 Oct 2021 03:02:29 +0000

* Bonds are never a safe haven against inflation.
* Consumers can’t afford to buy houses for what it costs builders to construct them.
* Zillow bails on home flipping business.
* Biden describes inflation as a high class problem.
* US government now using Soviet propaganda tactics to explain inflation.
* Bitcoin futures ETF BITO is the antithesis of what Bitcoin is supposed to stand for.

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Soaring Inflation Suppresses Consumer Confidence – Ep 741

Sat, 16 Oct 2021 21:13:39 +0000

* Markets turn risk on.
* Producer prices rise to levels not seen since peak inflation of the 1970s.
* Inflation is double the Fed’s benchmark now and will be triple by year end.
* Bitcoin rallies on ETF news, but will likely sell off on ETF launch.
* Putting profits first is putting people first.
* The Art Institute of Chicago fires their volunteer staff for the color of their skin.

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Entering an Inflation Super Cycle – Ep 740

Thu, 14 Oct 2021 02:36:49 +0000

* Expecting accurate inflation reports from the government is like expecting accurate crime reports from the mafia.
* Dollar falls and gold rises as investors begin to see through Fed’s fantasies.
* Inflation is here to stay and markets may finally be acknowledging that reality.
* Only the government can make the prices of everything go up all at once.
* Biden risks the health of journalists so he can create the appearance of press conferences.
* The crypto casino is an even bigger casino than the stock market.

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Weak Jobs & Bonds + Strong Oil = Stagflation – Ep 739

Sat, 09 Oct 2021 02:40:49 +0000

* Jobs numbers come in lower than anyone expected.
* Investors aren’t buying gold as an inflation hedge because they don’t think there is any real inflation to hedge.
* Buying gold won’t be as hard as selling bitcoin.
* US lead tax cartel pushing the world to less freedom through collusion.

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Inflation Burns While the Fed Fiddles – Ep 738

Wed, 06 Oct 2021 02:50:25 +0000

* Gold stocks going down because investors are disappointed they aren’t going up.
* Fed President Jim Bullard admits inflation is here to stay.
* The digital revolution has made gold more valuable than ever.
* Jerome Powell on the chopping block means the Fed’s composition may soon change for the worse
* Janet Yellen wants to remove the debt ceiling entirely.
* The individual is above society.
* The federal government uses extortion to circumvent the constitution.

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Government Creates Problems. Its Solutions Make Them Worse – Ep 737

Sat, 02 Oct 2021 21:31:20 +0000

* Markets rally on news of Merck Covid pill.
* Drug efficacy should be left to the market, not the government.
* FDA sacrifices human beings like lab rats.
* Ray Dalio chooses gold over Bitcoin.
* Home sales numbers are exaggerated by institutional flippers.
* Zillow shareholders set up for huge losses.
* Government involvement in education has driven costs up and quality down.

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Powell Sings a Different Tune – Ep 736

Fri, 01 Oct 2021 01:35:10 +0000

* Political theater plays out over the debt ceiling.
* US was biggest gainer from low interest rates, but will be biggest losers when rates are high.
* IRS continues its attack on lower and middle income Americans.
* Getting into bed with the government will get you screwed.
* Cost of having a bank account will get more expensive.

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Inflation Talk Tanks Markets – Ep 735

Wed, 29 Sep 2021 03:03:44 +0000

* Fed has become an arm of the US Treasury.
* Powell admits inflation problem is bigger and worse than he predicted.
* Investors rush back into energy stocks.
* Natural gas prices hit multi-year high.
* Taper trades are in; markets moving back into the inflation trade.
* Janet Yellen would be fired and sued if she managed a private company’s treasury like this.

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Taper Already Priced In. Now What? – Ep 734

Sat, 25 Sep 2021 23:39:57 +0000

* Less dovish is not hawkish.
* Mother of all bear markets in bonds may have just begun.
* Republicans only care about deficits and spending when Democrats are in charge.
* Plans for minting $1 trillion platinum coin would officially make the U.S. a banana republic.
*  Increase in home inventory could lead to decrease in home prices.
* Standard of living will drop for American service workers as their pay decreases and the prices of products they buy increase.
* Bitcoin can’t be digital gold if Bitcoin trades the opposite of gold.
* Buying Bitcoin is gambling, not investing, and governments regulate gambling.

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The Fed That Cried Taper – Ep 733

Thu, 23 Sep 2021 01:22:15 +0000

* Fed says the economy is great, but they will maintain the emergency policies they put in place when the economy was terrible.
* Fed will always choose to fight unemployment over #inflation.
* Fed turns blind eye to inflation because the alternative is a complete economic implosion.
* Fed’s policies disproportionately hurt African Americans.
* Republicans only care about the debt ceiling when they can use it as a political weapon.
* Jerome Powell dismisses concerns over #Evergrande and excess corporate leverage.
* Gold will explode and the dollar will implode when markets start to realize the #Fed keeps crying wolf.
* Gold went up with safe havens while Bitcoin fell with risk assets.

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Paying More, but Buying Less – Ep 732

Sat, 18 Sep 2021 14:58:35 +0000

* China won’t let Evergrande be the next Lehman Brothers.
* Fed took us 1 step forward and 100 steps back.
* Higher retail sales doesn’t mean consumers are buying more.
* Americans are least likely to buy a new car since 1974.
* Sweden sets successful example for dealing with Covid.
* America is worse off for invading Iraq.

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When There’s Too Much Money, There’s Never Enough Stuff – Ep 731

Wed, 15 Sep 2021 02:23:58 +0000

* Take the CPI numbers with a grain of salt.
* The CPI will catch up to the PPI.
* Fed’s new definition of transitory means a permanent reduction in standard of living.
* The problem isn’t a shortage of stuff, it’s an excess of money.
* Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
* Consumers are expecting higher prices.
* Gold stocks mark potential turning point.
* Inflation will pay for government spending, middle class will pay for inflation.
* Hedge funds buy preferential tax treatment from politicians.

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Government Is Consistent; It Always Lies – Ep 730

Sat, 11 Sep 2021 00:42:50 +0000

* Producer Price Index numbers come in higher than expected for 9th month in a row.
* Inflation trends show no sign of being transitory.
* When you properly define inflation, you know exactly who’s causing it.
* Bitcoin whales want the minnow’s cash.
* There are more job openings than unemployed people.
* Left shows its true colors after hate crime against Larry Elder.
*  Media buries stories of racist Democrats.
* The government took away our freedom so the terrorists wouldn’t have to.
* Tax havens keep a lid on taxes everywhere else.

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Let’s Replace Labor Day With Entrepreneur Day – Ep 729

Mon, 06 Sep 2021 15:14:00 +0000

* Grover Cleveland was really a libertarian and one of our greatest presidents.
* The populist movement lead to Labor Day and ultimately in 1913 to the The Federal Income tax, The Federal Reserve, and the popular election of U.S. Senators.
* The Woodrow Wilson presidency proved to be a disaster for America.
* Washington incumbents have rigged the system.
* Workers have benefited from entrepreneurs, despite the drag of labor unions.
* Henry Ford’s risk taking resulted in higher wages for his workers and cheaper cars for his customers.
* Business owners are in the crosshairs of the government.

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Summer Data Swoon Puts Fall Taper in Doubt – Ep 728

Sat, 04 Sep 2021 01:41:41 +0000

* Jobs numbers disappoint expectations, but Biden brags.
* Inflation expectations highest since just before 2008 financial crisis.
* AOC pressures Biden to nominate a more woke Fed chair.
* Fed causing a lack of savings, which pushes up asset prices and makes the rich richer.
* Gold prices calling Fed’s bluff on tightening.
* If Bitcoin is better than gold, Ethereum must be better than Bitcoin.
* Markets not sure if bad news is good news or if bad news is bad news.

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Tapering the Taper Talk – Ep 727

Sat, 28 Aug 2021 01:14:28 +0000

* Powell offers no clues on taper timetable.
* Powell vows to keep interest rates low until QE is finished.
* Powel blames price increases on exploding demand and lack of supply.
* Powel blames inflation on the public’s expectations.
* Fed’s only goal is to delay the inevitable crisis as long as possible.
* Invest in gold stocks before they recover ground they never should have lost.
* Afghanistan proved to the world that the US is no longer a military or economic super power.
* America’s biggest export may soon be our used cars.

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Less Loose Is Not Tight – Ep 726

Sat, 21 Aug 2021 02:53:44 +0000

* Fed will talk about tapering until it can use Delta as an excuse not to.
* Bitcoin is irrelevant to monetary policy.
* Accepting Bitcoin for mortgage payments is a publicity stunt, not a use case.
* Fed uses owner’s equivalent rent data to hide the scarier actual rent data.
* FDR may have killed the dollar, but Nixon helped bury it.

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Stimulus Even Harder to Exit Than Afghanistan – Ep 725

Wed, 18 Aug 2021 01:45:39 +0000

* Markets spooked by CNBC interview with Boston Fed President.
* Higher inflation leads to more poverty and a wider wealth gap.
* Food stamps are really money stamps.
* Media campaigns to soften up the public to inflation.
* Stimulus postponed the pain for some, but it’s about to come due.
* Jerome Powell warns Americans to prepare for a recession.
* Fed created a dollar crisis in response to the looming financial crisis.

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Fifty Years of Fiat Failure – Ep 724

Sat, 14 Aug 2021 19:40:33 +0000

* Rising costs increasing producer pricing.
* US home prices rising at fastest pace in history while affordability hits record low.
* Trade deficit continues its path higher.
* Inflation exposed in increased export prices.
* The whole of this tightening cycle will be all talk and no rate hikes.
* Consumer sentiment goes lower as consumer prices go higher.
* Fed in Catch-22 with consumer sentiment.
* We left the gold standard 50 years and may soon leave the dollar standard.

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Larger Deficits Mean Higher Inflation – Ep 723

Thu, 12 Aug 2021 01:24:14 +0000

* Gold reacts counterintuitively to inflation fears.
* Fed changes the definition of transitory inflation.
* Q2 Productivity numbers disappoint analysts.
* Biggest government expansion of the welfare state since the New Deal and Great Society.
* Elizabeth Warren wants to sick the IRS on the middle class.
* AMC tries to pump their stock as a crypto play.
* Bitcoin will live and die by the gold sword.

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Markets Move on Fantasy, Ignore Reality – Ep 722

Sat, 07 Aug 2021 21:11:11 +0000

* Wall Street trading on “garbage in, garbage out” algorithm.
* Another month, another record trade deficit.
* Moratorium on student loan payments extended.
* Eviction moratorium will send rent prices skyrocketing.
* Supreme Court says eviction moratorium is unconstitutional; Biden extends it anyway.
* AOC says we have a supply and demand problem.
* CNBC baits Lyft CEO for a Bitcoin headline.

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Central Banks Have Inflated the Mother of All Bubbles – Ep 721

Wed, 04 Aug 2021 03:25:57 +0000

* Jack Dorsey’s Square acquires Afterpay in largest corporate takeover in Australian history.
* Activision discriminates against Republicans, not women.
* Black Women’s Equal Pay Day is based on nonsense.
* Gender pay gap in women’s soccer is a result of their own choices.

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Inflation: Stealth Default, Fake Growth – Ep 720

Sat, 31 Jul 2021 20:36:23 +0000

* Inflation creating illusion of economic growth.
* Oil prices go up, but energy stocks get beat up.
* Fed won’t wage a war on inflation, never mind win it.
* Robinhood steals from the poor and gives to a few rich hedge funds.
* Saylor’s Bitcoin comparisons are nonsense.

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It’s Game Over if Investors Call Powell’s Bluff – Ep 719

Thu, 29 Jul 2021 02:22:38 +0000

* Trade deficit isn’t a problem until it’s a crisis.
* Home sales fall while home prices rise.
* Rent prices increased 25% year over year.
* Fed’s only monetary policy is talk.
* Markets may have begun calling the Fed’s bluff.
* Powell finally admits this inflation is permanent.

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Bad Policy Disables Economies in China and America – Ep 718

Tue, 27 Jul 2021 01:14:02 +0000

* High roads don’t win votes.
* The road to hell is paved with good intentions and is wheelchair accessible.
* Bitcoin rallies on its slope of hope.
* China cracks down on private education.

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COVID Isn’t the Reason Markets Got Sick – Ep 717

Wed, 21 Jul 2021 16:36:16 +0000

* Bitcoin gets skipped over in investors’ rush to safe havens.
* Gold mining stocks have never been a better deal.
* Fiscal stimulus without monetary stimulus is no longer possible.
* Bitcoin has a sucker’s rally after getting comfortable below $30k.

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PBS Frontline Misses the Fed’s Real Power to Destroy – Ep 716

Mon, 19 Jul 2021 19:57:09 +0000

* The power to inflate is the power to destroy.
Fed ensures most Americans are living on the edge.
* Quantitative Easing is just another word for government debt monetization.
* We’re always just one bubble away from the next financial crisis.
* Government creates a moral hazard with every subsidy it gets involved in.
* Power is most dangerous when it’s not understood by those wielding it.

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Fed Bets the Farm on Transitory Inflation – Ep 715

Fri, 16 Jul 2021 18:18:35 +0000

* Government data says inflation worse than the 80s; real data says inflation already worse than the 70s.
* Hypocritical Republicans criticize Biden for the same policies they pushed for under Trump.
* Jerome Powell claims economy is great, but it needs the same amount of stimulus as when it was crashing.
* Fed claims to have the tools to fight inflation if it gets too high, but not using them now proves they don’t.
* Powell admits people aren’t working because they’re being paid not to.

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CPI and PPI Expose Transitory Inflation Ruse – Ep 714

Wed, 14 Jul 2021 17:22:24 +0000

* Fed forced to admit that inflation will be higher and last longer than they predicted.
* June CPI numbers come in almost double Fed’s expectations.
* Highest monthly CPI increase in 13 years.
* Stock indexes are not a hedge against inflation.
* Producer costs are rising faster than consumer prices.
* Consumer prices are rising faster than wages.
* No signs that inflation is transitory in the oil market.

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Lies That Central Bankers and Bitcoin Pumpers Tell – Ep 713

Sat, 10 Jul 2021 19:20:33 +0000

* Oil prices break their winning streak.
* As stimulus runs out, Americans reach record high in consumer credit.
* ECB vows to increase cost of living for Europeans.
* Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin spin should fool no one.

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Markets Are Bracing For the Wrong Impact – Ep 712

Thu, 08 Jul 2021 18:00:58 +0000

* Bitcoin and other risky assets being sold off.
* Investors flee to gold and other safe havens.
* Fed goes from thinking about thinking about tapering to talking about talking about it.
* Supply of starter homes at 50 year low.
* Buying Bitcoin is as risky as it’s ever been.

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All Americans Can Celebrate Independence Day – Ep 711

Tue, 06 Jul 2021 17:37:26 +0000

* Oil marches toward record highs in Europe.
* Inflation disguised in new restaurant fees.
* The Constitution applies to all Americans.
* Slave trade started and ended in Africa, not the United States.
* Slavery was outlawed in the US before anywhere else in the world.

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Unemployment and Prices Rising Together – Ep 710

Fri, 02 Jul 2021 19:45:11 +0000

* Inflation spilling into the labor market.
* Pressures pushing dollar down and costs up.
* What does Basel III mean for gold?
* CNBC pundits are as clueless now as they were in 2006 and 2007.

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Government Protected Monopolies Are the Only Ones to Fear – Ep 709

Wed, 30 Jun 2021 16:49:25 +0000

* Facebook anti-trust case thrown out of court.
* Breaking up monopolies protects the competitors, not the consumers.
* John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil was a perfect model of free market efficiency.
* Consumers are indirectly price gouged by labor unions.
* Labor unions destroyed jobs and wages for laborers.
* Government unions should be illegal.
* San Francisco buys $70,000 tents for the homeless.

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Everything Is Awesome Because the Fed Says so – Ep 708

Sun, 27 Jun 2021 18:00:33 +0000

* Bond market sells off for opposite reason it rallied a week prior.
* Institutions are not rushing in to buy #Bitcoin.
* Huge Socialist agenda moving forward using #covid as the excuse.
* #Biden vows to grow government and use it against entrepreneurs and small business owners.
* We’ve barely begun to pay the piper for all the inflation the Fed has created.

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Political Hypocrisy on Inflation Lets Fed Escape Blame – Ep 707

Fri, 25 Jun 2021 02:06:13 +0000

* Fed triples its estimated duration of transitory inflation.
* Republicans have no credibility to criticize government spending and money printing.
* Fed vows to make the rich richer and the poor poorer by focusing on employment rather than inflation.
* Jerome Powell refuses to acknowledge whether being paid more to not work discourages employment.
* Republicans won’t put blame on the Fed, because they benefit more from blaming the Democrats.
* Maxine Waters praises Jerome Powell on his irresponsible leadership.

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Investors Call Bullard Bluff – Ep 706

Tue, 22 Jun 2021 16:06:23 +0000

* Markets begin to comprehend the Fed’s powerless against inflation.
* Oil prices may put the nail in the coffin of transitory inflation.
* Crypto traders unload their Bitcoin on Microstrategy. Microstrategy’s diamond hands are made of glass.
* Barry Silbert hesitates on buying GBTC shares.
* Tesla’s Bitcoin gamble enters into the red.
* Government creating moral hazards in rental housing markets.
* Why pay your rent when the government will pay it for you?
* The government has become our master and we’re all its servants.
* Liberals care about stacking the deck, not fairness.

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Juneteenth Is Only the Beginning – Ep 705

Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:41:57 +0000

*
Democrats using racism to pass the legislation they’ve always wanted.

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The Fed’s “No Stick” Monetary Policy – Ep 704

Sat, 19 Jun 2021 18:02:17 +0000

* Jim Bullard undoes Jerome Powell’s damage control.
* Fed goes from not thinking about thinking about raising interest rates to now talking about talking about raising interest rates.
* Fed’s monetary tightening is as believable as George Costanza’s house in The Hamptons.
* Bitcoin looks for lower support.

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Inflation Doves Coming Home to Roost – Ep 703

Thu, 17 Jun 2021 00:12:02 +0000

* Trade data uncovers what the CPI was hiding.
* Fed acknowledges the obvious; inflation is higher than 2%.
* Fed gives no indication of taper plans.
* Jerome Powell out-doves himself again.
* Paul Tudor Jones gets a gift from the Fed.
* JP Morgan does not believe inflation is mandatory.
* Economy has a collision course coming with reality.

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Despite Data, Markets Embrace Transitory Inflation – Ep 702

Tue, 15 Jun 2021 15:56:07 +0000

* Economic data disappoints.
* Sean Hannity to Tucker Carlson: Peter Schiff was right!
* Paul Tudor Jones going all in on inflation trade.
* Bitcoin moves again on Elon Musk tweets.
* Congress proposes Patriot Tax, which isn’t constitutional or patriotic.
* Paying as little tax as possible is a patriotic duty.

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The Fed Flunks Monetary Policy – Ep 701

Sat, 12 Jun 2021 16:33:23 +0000

* Worse than expected inflation report furthers transitory fantasy.
* Fed failing its mandates.
* IRS abates my excessive $1.4M penalty.
* US using Covid to keep citizens from getting passports.

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Surging Inflation Is Anything but Transitory – Ep 700

Fri, 11 Jun 2021 01:59:35 +0000

* Consumer prices on the rise and going higher.
* Markets figuring out the Fed can’t fix Inflation.
* Trump calls Bitcoin a scam.
* Michael Saylor goes on damage control with Hannity.
* Biden’s administration wages class warfare against rich with IRS leak.

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Financial Media Downplays Inflation Risk – Ep 699

Wed, 09 Jun 2021 02:00:02 +0000

* Inflation is on the rise and so is denial about it.
* Oil prices reach their highest levels since Covid began.
* Broken bond market and rising stock market are not evidence of low inflation.
* Janet Yellen admits higher inflation is coming, but says it’s a good thing.
* Global minimum tax is a big negative for the world.
* Bitcoin 2021 cult member love fest comes to an end in Miami.
* Michael Saylor goes into more debt desperately trying to keep Bitcoin from collapsing.
* The world will not be following El Salvador’s economic lead.

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The U.S Dollar Is a Meme Currency – Ep 698

Sat, 05 Jun 2021 00:28:46 +0000

* Contradictory jobs reports creating market volatility.
* Russia begins dumping dollars and buying other currencies and gold.
* AMC buyers think they’re sticking it to the man as they hand their money to institutions.
* Bitcoin 2021 kicks off in Miami.
* Ron Paul does not believe in Bitcoin.
* Gold has never been easier or cheaper to authenticate.

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Americans Lost Every War – Ep 697

Mon, 31 May 2021 23:51:02 +0000

* Falling Dollar elevating Yuan.
* China increases its child limit.
* Ray Dalio didn’t endorse Bitcoin; he condemned treasury bonds.
* American soldiers died protecting our freedoms, but our freedoms didn’t survive the wars.
* Truth in advertising should apply to legislation.

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Traders Begin to Realize Higher Inflation Is Bullish for Gold – Ep 696

Sat, 29 May 2021 20:37:45 +0000

* The Great Rotation is underway.
* Gold closes the month with its highest monthly close since August 2020.
* Headline PCE has biggest rise in 13 years.
* Core CPE has biggest rise in 25 years.
* Rent rises 5.4%. Food rises 28%.
* Traders waking up to reality that inflation is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.
* JP Morgan risks their clients’ investments to collect their fees.
* Government budgets are just optimistic wishlists.

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Inflation Tax Already Destroying Purchasing Power – Ep 695

Wed, 26 May 2021 01:18:06 +0000

* Gold close to breakout and dollar close to break down.
* Fed admits unpleasant inflation is a possibility.
* Major disappointment in home buyer data.
* Surplus of money is pricing Americans out of the home and automobile market.
* Government begins blaming companies for higher prices instead of inflation.
* Don’t let your money retire before you do.
* Warning signs of crypto bubble popping.

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Bitcoin Is Nothing Like Gold – Ep 694

Sat, 22 May 2021 16:37:00 +0000

* Rotation continues from momentum to value as Bitcoin investors turn to gold.
* China is the excuse, not the reason for the Bitcoin bubble bursting.
* This Crypto Winter may be the longest and most brutal of all.
* Dave Portnoy shills Safemoon gimmick.
* Coinbase may be the biggest failure vs. expectations of any IPO in history.
* Crypto crash ushers in bear market for Tesla, Square, Microstrategy, Riot Blockchain, Galaxy Digital.
* Gold is in a solid bull market making new highs.
* Paul Krugman is right on Bitcoin and wrong on gold.
* The US is now officially a Banana Republic without the bananas.

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Crypto Crash. Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip? – Ep 693

Thu, 20 May 2021 00:19:05 +0000

* Bitcoin proves it is not a safe haven asset.
* Investors begin rotation from Bitcoin to gold.
* Bitcoin is the white whale and Michael Saylor is Captain Ahab.
* Anthony Pompliano wants your cash, not your Bitcoin.
* Gold investors spooked by suggestion of a possible discussion to potentially think about talking about tapering.
* US Dollar crash may look similar to today’s Bitcoin crash.

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Investors Begin to Worry the Fed Won’t Fight Inflation – Ep 692

Wed, 19 May 2021 01:46:16 +0000

* Dollar falls towards new lows.
* Inflation fears become more widespread.
* Wall Street beginning to realize there’s no political solution to inflation. Bitcoin following risk stocks lower, as inflation hedges like gold and silver rise.
* Fearing 2% inflation, Bitcoin investors lose 34% on their hedge.
* Bitcoin staring at enormous head and shoulders top.
* Microstrategy stock down 63% from its high.
* Michael Saylor lies and hides.

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All Signs Point to Stagflation – Ep 691

Sat, 15 May 2021 21:48:29 +0000

* Oil prices pump.
* Bitcoin prices dump.
* Gold prices shine.
* US leads world in over-valued momentum stocks.
* Tucker Carlson talks inflation.
* Windows look like nails to the Fed’s hammer.
* Soaring inflation outweighs record lows mortgage rates.
* Manufacturing decreases in April.
* Economic statistics point to stagflation.

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Soaring CPI Shocks Clueless Investors and Economists – Ep 690

Wed, 12 May 2021 22:32:41 +0000

* CPI numbers shock expectations.
* Biggest monthly gain in CPI since 1981.
* Gasoline supply chain disrupted by ransomware hack.
* Price gouging alleviates shortages.
* Unemployed workers shouldn’t be picky.
* Disincentivizing people from jobs is not good for the economy.
* Dogecoiners buy the rumor and sell the fact on Elon Musk SNL appearance.
* Accolades have gone to Cathie Woods’ head.
* ARKK will likely make a new 52 week low this year.
* CNBC continues to ignore emerging markets, value stocks, and gold.
* ]The people saying sub-prime was contained in 2008 are the same people saying inflation is transitory now.

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Jobs Not Required to Spend Printed Money – Ep 689

Sat, 08 May 2021 18:34:00 +0000

* Huge misses in jobs numbers.
* Biden’s Blue-Collar Blueprint to build back better will be another big bureaucratic blunder.
* Jobs report is more evidence the Fed’s policies aren’t working.
* Weaker labor market means stronger inflation.
* Dollar decline will accelerate.
* Strong week for gold and silver with more strength ahead.
* Investors continue their move from growth to value stocks.
* Bitcoin maximalists in glass houses throwing stones at Dogecoin.
* Elon Musk may create a market top in Dogecoin after his SNL appearance.
* Jeff Gundlach is a fan of The Peter Schiff Show.

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The Fed Can’t Be Honest About Inflation – Ep 688

Wed, 05 May 2021 22:23:18 +0000

* Inflation concerns increase along with commodity prices.
* Trade deficit will fuel inflationary spiral.
* Government reclassifying our rights as privileges so they can take them away.
* Supreme Court sets precedent for the federal government to start seizing property.
* Americans need property rights, not property privileges.

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Fed Helps Biden Cheat to Avoid Economic “F” – Ep 687

Sat, 01 May 2021 18:43:39 +0000

* Markets, gold, bonds, oil end April up; US dollar down.
* Investors may “sell in May and going away.”
* More than one third of US household income is now coming from the government.

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Biden and Powell Do America – Ep 686

Fri, 30 Apr 2021 01:26:59 +0000

* New record high in S&P and Nasdaq.
* New record high in monthly trade deficit.
* New record high in shipping containers falling off ships into the ocean.
* Powell not worried about increases in the cost of living.
* The middle class created labor unions and then, like Frankenstein’s monster, the unions turned on their creator.
* Biden’s plan to make healthcare more affordable will backfire and make it more expensive.
* American Families Bill will set a new record high in fraud.
* Government will do to childcare what it’s done to college tuitions.

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Less of What’s Taxed, More of What’s Subsidized – Ep 685

Wed, 28 Apr 2021 02:54:15 +0000

* Jeff Gundlach sounding a lot like Peter Schiff again.
* Biden’s American Families Plan extends entitlements to child care and sick leave.
* Covid policies created multiple layers of unemployment fraud
* Government wants to pick winners and losers in the economy.
* IRS going after business owners with new increased auditing budget.
* Presumption of innocence is under attack.

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Government Spending Is Taxation – Ep 684

Sat, 24 Apr 2021 17:59:28 +0000

* Stock market indexes break their 4-week winning streak.
* Biden tax plan creates bearish environment for stock market.
* Technical data for the dollar continues looking weaker.
* Conspiracy theories surrounding the Perth Mint are wrong.
* Republicans opposing Biden’s tax plan are hypocrites.

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The Beginning or the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market? – Ep 683

Fri, 23 Apr 2021 01:28:45 +0000

* Coinbase already in a bear market within a week of its IPO.
* GBTC selling at a record discount.
* Bitcoin dump is underway.
* Biden readies massive federal tax increase on capital gains.
* Rich gringos are benefiting Puerto Rico.

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The Woke Mob Silences Dissenters – Ep 682

Wed, 21 Apr 2021 22:10:43 +0000

* Woke mob is preventing justice and cramping freedom of speech.
* We should be mourning the death of justice, not the conviction of Derek Chauvin.
* Jurors can now go home as heroes instead of fearing for their lives.
* George Floyd didn’t sacrifice himself for justice. It was justice that was sacrificed.

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Trial by Mob: Injustice in America – Ep 681

Tue, 20 Apr 2021 18:08:45 +0000

* George Floyd's autopsy results show he died of hypertension, heart disease, and drug overdose that complicated police subdual, restraint, and compression.
* Video of Derek Chauvin shows he was following procedure and not trying to murder George Floyd.
* Maxine Waters urges BLM to be more confrontational with their protests.
* Benjamin Crump lies about Daunte Wright and Kim Potter on ABC's This Week.

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Is Dogecoin the New Bitcoin? – Ep 680

Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:14:47 +0000

* Record setting day and week for the markets.
* Dollar sells off as gold rises.
* China eases restrictions on gold imports.
* There is no silver scam at the Perth Mint.
* CNBC treating the Coinbase IPO like they did the AOL Time Warner merger.
* Bitcoin lost 97% of its value measured in Dogecoin.
* Dogecoin was created as a joke and may become the punchline for hodling Bitcoin.

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Madoff Dead, but Government Ponzi Schemes Live On – Ep 679

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 23:56:00 +0000

* This inflation isn’t transitory. Higher prices are here to stay.
* Coinbase IPO triggers a buy the rumor sell the fact crypto avalanche.
* Jerome Powell has zero understanding of gold.
* Bernie Madoff died in prison, but his spirit lives on in the US Government.
* Daunte Wright, like George Floyd, contributed to his own death.
* Minnesota officer charged with manslaughter to appease the mob.

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Powell Guarantees Fed’s Indefinite Economic Support – Ep 678

Tue, 13 Apr 2021 00:45:41 +0000

* Our leaders, including Chairman Powell, are cowards.
* You can’t buy what hasn’t been produced, no matter how much money is printed.
* Bitcoin price moves up ahead of Coinbase offering.
* Michael Saylor’s latest propaganda stunt proves Bitcoin is neither currency nor money.

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Transitioning Into Stagflation – Ep 677

Sat, 10 Apr 2021 17:48:23 +0000

* Dow closes the week at a new all time high.
* Small gains in gold and silver.
* Investors haven’t yet realized the Fed can’t stop inflation.
* Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge.
* Record number of Americans don’t want jobs.
* 60 Minutes is fake news.
* US Customs targets me at the airport.

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Fed Can’t Put Inflation Genie Back in the Bottle – Ep 676

Thu, 08 Apr 2021 15:45:35 +0000

* Jamie Dimon touts optimistic fairy tales.
* Moratoriums on evictions and student loan payments boosting consumer spending.
* The 70’s were an economic disaster because of the policies of the 60’s.
* Fed betting the house on inflation being transitory.
* China’s digital Yuan threatens both Bitcoin and the US Dollar.

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Biden Wants to Lead the World to Less Freedom – Ep 675

Tue, 06 Apr 2021 00:39:58 +0000

* Stock markets hit record highs.
* Weakness in Russell shows recovery is happening outside the US.
* Biden and Yellen push for collusion through global tax cartel.
* Nobody has voting rights.
* Democrats want to keep dumbing down the voter base.

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Employees Returning to Work Is Not Job Creation – Ep 674

Fri, 02 Apr 2021 19:11:55 +0000

* Restored jobs will be lost again permanently.
* Gold bulls throwing in the towel.
* Archegos is a lesson for Bitcoin HODLers.
* Derek Chauvin’s trial begins with odds against him.
* Media ignores murderers if they’re the wrong race or gender.
* Hate Crime laws will lead to Thought Crime laws.

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Biden’s Plan Will Weaken Economy & Lessen Opportunity – Ep 673

Thu, 01 Apr 2021 02:15:02 +0000

* Treasury bonds creep higher to new post-Covid highs.
* Gold sellers are not Bitcoin buyers.
* Market has been buying Fed’s bluffs.
* Ferocious moves in gold ahead.
* Covid is incomparable to the tragedies of war.
* Biden takes a stake to the heart of capitalism.
* The middle class was created by capitalism and destroyed by government.

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Inflation: Fed Won’t Pick a Fight It Can’t Win – Ep 672

Sat, 27 Mar 2021 18:11:18 +0000

* Markets rally as the rotation to value and dividend stocks continues.
* Treasury yields slip.
* Big moves in oil and dollar.
* Gold and silver take a hit.
* Unemployment and trade deficit numbers dangerously high.
* Powell’s tool will turn the economy from recession into a depression.
* FOMC looking to advance a political agenda.
* Infrastructure spending is not stimulus.
* Despite more competition, Disney+ subscription price increases 14%.
* Read the fine print before bartering your Bitcoin for a Tesla.

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When Krugman Talks, Don’t Listen – 671

Wed, 24 Mar 2021 02:37:47 +0000

* Stock market down on anniversary of 2020 crash.
* Biden readies $4 Trillion more in stimulus before the ink dries on the last round of checks.
* Krugman back with more Keynesian nonsense.
* Virtual Fifth Avenue is not valuable when you can have infinite New York Cities.
* Affirmative Action is condescending to African Americans.
* Massive racial hate crime gets swept under the rug by the media.

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Markets Are Not Buying What the Fed Is Selling – 670

Sat, 20 Mar 2021 18:42:29 +0000

* St. Patrick’s Day green turns into a sea of red.
* CPI is another government lie.
* Markets worried the Fed will fight inflation.
* Gold mining stocks strengthen.
* Tensions rise as China puts Biden administration in a PR box.
* The same problems are now playing out on a bigger stage.

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Fed Turns Screens Green for St Patrick’s Day – Ep 669

Thu, 18 Mar 2021 01:35:05 +0000

* Markets rally as Fed continues its game of chicken.
* Jerome Powell gambling that this time things will be different.
* Gold and silver up. Dollar down.
* Bank of America agrees, Bitcoin is just for gambling.
* Morgan Stanley allows restricted crypto speculating to high net worth investors.

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Anchors Aweigh. Adrift in a Sea of Inflation – Ep 668

Wed, 17 Mar 2021 01:46:08 +0000

* Dow breaks its streak of seven day record highs.
* Import and export prices rise.
* Home building prices rise.
* Expansive tax hikes coming on income.
* NFT mania moves to virtual sneakers.
* I lost $4,000 HODLing my tweet.

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Fed Playing Chicken with Bond Market – Ep 667

Sat, 13 Mar 2021 02:09:51 +0000

* Investors starting to adopt my thesis.
* Money doesn’t create purchasing power.
* Biden’s stimulus is just a down payment.
* Massive loopholes will be exploited.
* Artists and athletes like Beeple and Gronk are ripping off their fans.

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Peak Insanity – Ep 666

Wed, 10 Mar 2021 03:04:33 +0000

* NASDAQ enters into a correction.
* Cathy Wood buys overpriced momentum stocks.
* The madness of crowds has reached an all-time high.
* NFTs are for rookies.
* Tweets for sale!

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Fed Between a Rock and a Hard Place – Ep 665

Sat, 06 Mar 2021 01:04:13 +0000

* Oil prices surge to two year highs.
* Restaurants being allowed to reopen is not employment strength.
* Jerome Powell spooks the markets with his false sense of confidence.
* Bitcoin trading like a NASDAQ stock with no earnings.

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Fed Gets RBA to Do Its Dirty Work – Ep 664

Wed, 03 Mar 2021 02:42:16 +0000

* Big gains on Monday give back on Tuesday.
* Australia doubles down on their QE program.
* US stock market rally made in Australia.
* Kevin Leary has Bitcoin backwards.
* Mark Cuban unknowingly refutes his own arguments.
* Democrats play politics with Wealth Tax.
* Anybody can consume, saving capital is the tough part

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Inflation Is No Threat to Gold – Ep 663

Sat, 27 Feb 2021 02:26:28 +0000

* Stock markets end February hemorrhaging.
* March may start with a black Monday blood bath.
* Meme stocks mania add to the market craziness.
* Cancel culture insanity infects The Bachelor.
* Don't assume Mr. Potatohead's gender.
* How will the future generations judge us?

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The Fed Can’t Fool All the Investors All the Time – Ep 662

Thu, 25 Feb 2021 01:30:57 +0000

* Jerome Powell becomes more dovish each time he speaks.
* US Dollar hits new low against Australian and Canadian Dollar.
* Technical charts show dollar heading towards a cliff.
* Elon Musk responds:

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Elon Musk Replies to Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin Tweet – Ep 661

Tue, 23 Feb 2021 02:13:01 +0000

* Renewed momentum out of Covid stay-at-home stocks and into value stocks.
* Crude oil, industrial metals, and other commodities move higher.
* Tesla slips back into a bear market.
* Can Elon Musk convince Peter Schiff to buy Bitcoin?

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Security Regs and IRS Audits Targeting the Rich Will Hit the Middle Class – Ep 660

Sat, 20 Feb 2021 02:47:25 +0000

* Copper leads rise in commodities.
* By end of year, a penny may be worth a nickel.
* Elon Musk admits, BTC is BS.
* Bitcoin bubble may get popped by a gold pin.
* Game Stop bubble popped.
* Robinhood going to be writing a lot of checks to small investors.
* If you can’t afford a professional broker, blame the government.
* IRS setting their sights on the middle class and small business owners.

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Stimulus Checks Funded a January Christmas – Ep 659

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 00:33:58 +0000

* We don’t have a booming economy, we have a shopping spree.
* Food and energy prices on the rise.
* There is no gender pay gap, but new laws will create one.

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Surging Bond Yields and Oil Still Pressuring Gold – Ep 658

Wed, 17 Feb 2021 01:13:39 +0000

* Spike in interest rates hit gold and silver hard.
* First time home buyer credit tucked into stimulus bill will breed fraud and moral hazard.
* Tesla stock hurt by Bitcoin investment, potentially scaring off other CEOs from following Elon Musk into crypto.

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Surging Trade Deficits Signify Weakness, Not Strength – Ep 657

Sat, 13 Feb 2021 02:42:10 +0000

* Record highs in the S&P and lumber prices.
* Commodity prices and bond yields soar.
* More Americans losing their jobs.
* U.S. has been obliterated in the trade war.
* Lucasfilm feigns outrage from the leftist mob, proving Gina Carano’s point.

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Fed Gives Treasury a Blank Check – Ep 656

Thu, 11 Feb 2021 02:12:22 +0000

* Pot stocks were blazing today after getting smoked last year.
* Big action in platinum may be the start of bigger action in precious metals.
* Oil prices make new post-covid highs.
* Signs point to a possible peak in MicroStrategy’s stock.
* Jerome Powell encourages the government to get into a deeper hole.
* Puerto Rico would be one of the biggest losers of the minimum wage.
* Virtue signaling is harming the poor and minority communities.

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Did Tesla Jump the Shark Buying Bitcoin? – Ep 655

Tue, 09 Feb 2021 01:34:34 +0000

* Elon Musk dumps Tesla shareholder money into Bitcoin.
* Tesla is overvalued, but Bitcoin has no value.
* Will one bubble be the pin for another bubble?
* The establishment is behind Bitcoin!
*
Dogecoin is better than Bitcoin.

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All Roads Lead to Stagflation – Ep 654

Sat, 06 Feb 2021 02:46:51 +0000

*
Jobs data weak and revisions are worse.

*
Bond yields weighing heavy on gold prices.

*
Dollar gets clobbered by disappointing economic data.

*
Oil prices rising and going higher.

*
Increasing trade deficit will soon explode.

*
Kamala Harris and the Senate pass $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

*
This is the first and probably smallest of many stimulus payments from Joe Biden.

*
Warren, Sanders, AOC pushing Biden for student loan forgiveness.

*
Bitcoin hodlers seem to be the only ones talking about inflation.

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When Neel Kashkari Speaks, Smart People Buy Gold – Ep 653

Thu, 04 Feb 2021 02:54:48 +0000

*
Quieter day in the markets with notable moves in oil.

*
Dollar consolidating before its next move lower.

*
Kashkari believes inflation is purely psychological.

*
Outsourcing will boom under Democrats.

*
New York is paying people to get COVID at “Covid Parties.”

*
Visa uses Bitcoin for cheap publicity, not for DeFi.

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Schiff Gold Becomes Schiff Silver – Ep 652

Tue, 02 Feb 2021 02:33:17 +0000

*
Big moves in silver outshine modest gains in gold.

*
Robinhood users are the product, not the customers.

*
Government regulators emboldened to act.

*
Watch out for the numismatic bait and switch from precious metals dealers.

*
Elon Musk and Ray Dalio don’t sound like Bitcoin buyers.

*
Elon Musk is wise not to throw pins while living in a bubble.

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Reddit Raiders Ride Silver – Ep 651

Sat, 30 Jan 2021 01:34:40 +0000

*
All four major market indexes end the week down.

*
So goes January, so goes the year … so buckle up!

*
Hedge funds continue to take it in the shorts.

*
First Majestic Silver gets targeted.

*
Robinhood limits stock trading and puts halt on instant crypto buying.

*
The establishment does NOT want you to buy physical silver.

*
The establishment LOVES Bitcoin.

*
Elon Musk plays with his Twitter followers like puppets.

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The Mother of All Short Squeezes is Yet to Come – Ep 650

Thu, 28 Jan 2021 01:57:53 +0000

*
Powell delivers most dovish press conference ever.

*
Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge… fund wins trophy for ridiculous bitcoin logic

*
GameStop proves Bitcoin can’t work.

*
Technicals starting to deteriorate on Bitcoin.

*
Bitcoin speculators have moved onto greener pastures..

*
Big shorts in gold and silver could be squeezed next.

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Is the Bitcoin Game about to Stop? – Ep 649

Tue, 26 Jan 2021 02:03:46 +0000

*
Big gains in the most heavily shorted stocks like Game Stop.

*
Robinhood traders buying Game Stop think they’re smarter than the hedge funds shorting it.

*
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

*
In the short-run, stocks are a voting machine. In the long-run, stocks are a weighing machine.

*
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

*
When it comes to bubbles, the markets first bankrupt everyone who bet against them, and then bankrupts everyone who bet on them.

*
Premium for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is collapsing along with the demand.

*
If you’re at the poker table and you don’t know who the patsy is, it’s you.

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We Elected Biden But We Got Sanders – Ep 648

Sat, 23 Jan 2021 00:32:40 +0000

*
Markets finish positive on a quiet week.

*
IBM’s chickens coming home to roost.

*
Gold positive on the week despite heavy pressure.

*
Biden’s executive orders bullish for gold fundamentals.

*
Chicago teachers don’t care about students.

*
Regulatory costs of Bitcoin will exceed traditional banking.

*
There is no shortage of Satoshis.

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Biden Takes the Helm of Sinking Ship – Ep 647

Thu, 21 Jan 2021 02:32:11 +0000

*
Markets couldn’t care less who’s the president.

*
Despite the change in the White House, there’s no change at the Federal Reserve.

*
Joe Biden is not everybody’s president.

*
Democrats made a deal with the devil.

*
The country will now suffer like never before.

*
Nothing Joe Biden wants to do is Constitutional.

*
This can is too big to kick down the road.

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Trump Leaves America Further From Greatness Than Ever – Ep 646

Wed, 20 Jan 2021 02:24:31 +0000

*
I told you so. Donald is a one term President.

*
Trade deficit worse now than before we were “winning” trade deals.

*
Trump added almost as much to the deficit in 4 years as Obama did in 8.

*
Only thing Trump didn’t like about Obamacare was the name.

*
The cornerstone of Trump’s legacy and the cornerstone of Trump’s criticisms of Obama are the same.

*
Trump failed to make America great, but pretended that he succeeded.

*
To his credit, Trump didn’t lead us into any new wars and he nominated three good justices to the Supreme Court.

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Biden to Throw Drowning Economy an Anchor – Ep 645

Sat, 16 Jan 2021 01:26:43 +0000

*
Power and ignorance is a dangerous combination.

*
Biden’s stimulus plan will make the European Union look responsible by comparison.

*
Affirm’s IPO epitomizes what’s wrong with markets and the economy.

*
Dollar denominated financial assets on expedited track to worthlessness.

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Commodity Boom Evidences Inflation, Not Growth – Ep 644

Wed, 13 Jan 2021 02:52:02 +0000

*
Agricultural commodities ore on fire.

*
Nobody needs bitcoin.

*
A market driven by inflation is different than a market driven by earnings.

*
Biden administration will exploit the attempted “insurrection”

*
Tech currying favor from Biden administration through conservative censorship.

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Tesla vs. Bitcoin: The Battle of the Bubbles – Ep 643

Sat, 09 Jan 2021 03:19:48 +0000

*
Gold and silver shellacked.

*
Jobs report worse than anyone expected.

*
Elon Musk becomes richest man in the world.

*
Chamath Palihapitiya’s poorly chosen quote may be an omen for things to come.

*
Bitcoin bubble brings bizarre bedfellows.

*
Biden vows to put low-skilled workers out of work.

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The Real Threat in D.C. Comes from Congress, Not Protests – Ep 642

Thu, 07 Jan 2021 01:58:35 +0000

*
Democrats bribe Georgia voters with cash.

*
Massive divergence between International stocks and domestic stocks.

*
Bitcoin is propping up the system that it’s supposed to take down.

*
Protesting a stolen election is a right.

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Did Global Financial Markets Just Decouple? – Ep 641

Tue, 05 Jan 2021 02:01:19 +0000

*
Rare dichotomies playing out in the markets - something big is happening.

*
Dollar continues to fall against the Yuan.

*
Institutional money is flocking to real commodities, not Bitcoin.

*
Connecticut passes idiotic new law giving workers 3 month yearly vacations.

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2021: The Year of The Chickens Coming Home to Roost – Ep 640

Thu, 31 Dec 2020 23:32:13 +0000

*
Fed turned stock market into a casino.

*
Investors buying everything in sight with cheap money.

*
Trump ends term with biggest trade deficit and budget deficits in history.

*
Trump vetoes less bills than any other president in 100 years.

*
Race to the bottom will start when Fed starts bailing out state.

*
Tesla is better than Bitcoin.

*
Bitcoin is like the Emperor’s New Clothes.

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Bitcoin May Feel the Ripple – Ep 639

Thu, 24 Dec 2020 22:45:48 +0000

*
Trump grandstands over stimulus bill.

*
Ripple gets ripped.

*
Is Bitcoin also a security?

*
Biden will be bad for Bitcoin.

*
Greyscale gets clobbered.

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Government to Sedate the Economy with More Stimulus – Ep 638

Wed, 23 Dec 2020 02:52:34 +0000

*
New Covid-19 relief stimulus bill passes Congress.

*
200 years worth of debt added in one year of 2020.

*
Trump outdoes Obama’s deficit in only one term.

*
Reparations via voting is nonsense.

*
Banco Popular has bad business practices.

*
I recommend First Bank of Puerto Rico.

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The Dollar’s Loss Is Not America’s Win – Ep 637

Sat, 19 Dec 2020 20:08:25 +0000

*
Dollar melts down toward new lows.

*
Tesla added to S&P, making the index even more overvalued.

*
Exporting is a means to pay for importing.

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Fed’s Inflation Ignorance Will Not Be Bliss – Ep 636

Thu, 17 Dec 2020 01:25:32 +0000

*
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged.

*
More stimulus checks and PPP on the way.

*
State governments owe business owners compensation.

*
Big move in silver and bigger moves building.

*
Bitcoin outshines the precious metals.

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Fed Fuels IPO Folly – Ep 635

Fri, 11 Dec 2020 02:48:05 +0000

*
Doordash and Airbnb go public with successful IPO, despite never making a profit.

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Rigged Bond Market Sends False Signals – Ep 634

Wed, 09 Dec 2020 01:58:45 +0000

*
Stock indexes and gold mining stocks hit 52-week highs.

*
Fed can’t stop the dollar from falling or gold from rising.

*
Bitcoin isn’t gold 2.0, it’s fools gold 2.0.

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The Fed Fights Inflation with Inflation – Ep 633

Sat, 05 Dec 2020 01:43:23 +0000

*
2021 may be the weakest year yet for the dollar.

*
Investors whistle past the mother of all graveyards as inflation mounts.

*
Grayscale printing money and buying CNBC ads.

*
Watch for Bitcoin’s double-top before you let the champagne pop.

*
HODLers on Sesame Street try to silence my video.

*
Walter E. Williams, a black life that mattered greatly to me.

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Government Help Has Made a Bad Situation Much Worse – Ep 632

Wed, 02 Dec 2020 03:01:38 +0000

*
Best November for the Dow since the roaring 20s.

*
While stocks saw a boom, gold saw a bust.

*
Negative backdrop may have firmed gold’s bottom.

*
Bitcoin reaches new highs.

*
Joe Biden is from the government and here to help.

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Bitcoin Roasted for Thanksgiving – Ep 631

Fri, 27 Nov 2020 23:29:33 +0000

*
Grayscale Trust leads Bitcoin into a Thanksgiving Day Massacre.

*
Sharp declines in gold on Black Friday.

*
Inflation will not save debtors who want to retire.

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Dow 30k. Fed Gets the Credit and the Blame – Ep 630

Wed, 25 Nov 2020 03:11:28 +0000

*
Markets hit all time record high of 30k.

*
Record TSLA stock price rockets Elon Musk to second richest in the world.

*
Trump takes credit for record markets he said would tank on Biden win.

*
Janet Yellen for Secretary of Debt.

*
The opposite of the Roaring Twenties are here.

*
Bitcoin flirts with 20k.

*
FDA blocks harmless drugs.

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Trump’s Prescription for Higher Drug Prices – Ep 629

Sat, 21 Nov 2020 02:52:24 +0000

*
Hedge funds are no longer hedges; they’re risks.

*
Investors hope for more monetary stimulus as fiscal stimulus dries up.

*
More fiscally stimulated companies going bankrupt.

*
Bitcoin will replace the tulip bulb in future economic textbooks.

*
Trump’s executive order is unconstitutional and will drive prescription prices higher.

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If COVID Didn’t Hurt Stocks, Why Should a Vaccine Help? – Ep 628

Wed, 18 Nov 2020 02:26:40 +0000

* Another vaccine, another rally.
* Easy money is here to stay no matter what happens with COVID.
* Price surges coming.
* Was Buffett embarrassed by his big Barrick buy?
* Ray Dalio recommending the entire Euro Pacific investment strategy.
* Airbnb going public with no reason for optimism.
* Hidden agenda of Bitcoin whales is to trap the minnows.
* Voting for the CARES Act shows how little you care about the country.

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Biden Advisor Proposes National Paid Vacation – Ep 627

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:26:51 +0000

* Biden advisor proposes another lockdown; says the Fed will pay everyones’ wages. Is it a Trojan horse for UBI?
* No recovery in sight for the economy, only a relapse.
* Democrats fight for Senate control through Georgia.
* Americans in their 70s taking on record debt.
* 60 Minutes Australia compounds their damages.
* PayPal’s Bitcoin adoption is a gimmick.

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There’s No Vaccine for What Really Ails the U.S. Economy – Ep 626

Tue, 10 Nov 2020 02:23:53 +0000

* Big moves in all the markets on news of COVID vaccine from Pfizer.
* COVID vaccine will not be ready soon.
* Investors sell stay-at-home stocks and buy the leave-the-house stocks.
* Gold gets thrown out with the safe-havens.
* Bitcoin has the least volatility.
* Statehood for Puerto Rico would be a disaster.

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Dollar Dumps as Stock Market Pumps – Ep 625

Sat, 07 Nov 2020 00:57:14 +0000

* Investors having deer in headlights moment.
* The light at the end of the tunnel is a Mac truck.
* Rally in gold stocks are a small taste of what’s ahead.
* Biden has the same tricks to play as Trump.
* Biden, like Trump, criticizes the stock market as a candidate and will embrace it as president.
* Bitcoin gains, but its popularity doesn’t.

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Investors are as Clueless as Pollsters – Ep 624

Thu, 05 Nov 2020 00:58:32 +0000

The election polls were horribly wrong.
Blue wave barely makes a splash.
Wall Street content with the election results.
Biden will reregulate what Trump deregulated.
Biden regulations will take toll on workers.
China and pharmaceutical companies optimistic on Biden.
Pot stocks get smoked.
Ranked voting would blow open the Democrat and Republican duopoly.

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The Peter Schiff Show Election Night Coverage

Wed, 04 Nov 2020 21:50:23 +0000

Peter Schiff gives his thoughts on the election and takes questions from the listeners.

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Worst Pre-Election Stock Market Week in History – Ep 623

Sat, 31 Oct 2020 01:21:07 +0000

US stock market has worst week since March.
Wall Street bought on the rumor of a Biden win; now selling before it becomes a fact.
Selling will continue even after he wins.
It’s all about the Fed and nobody cares.
Losses will be most pronounced in the bond market.
Fed holding back the cure for the economy.
Under Capitalism, people get rich by helping other people.
Under Socialism, people get rich by controlling other people.
Great buying opportunities in gold mining sector.
Dollar heading into the biggest bear market it’s ever suffered.

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All Bubbles Eventually Find a Pin – Ep 622

Tue, 27 Oct 2020 02:05:45 +0000

Stock markets tumble on renewed fears.
Blue wave may not crest as once was expected.
More stimulus comes with bigger government.
Trump is the Republican Jimmy Carter.
Trump’s legacy will be his successful Supreme Court nominees.
The most important thing this election is to prevent Democrats from taking control of the Senate.

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Was the Hatchet Job on Me a Snow Job on Australia? – Ep 621

Thu, 22 Oct 2020 03:01:16 +0000

Addressing the elephant in the room.
Australian media accuses me of masterminding the biggest money laundering and tax evasion scheme in the history of the world.
Realtors, accountants, lawyers may soon be required to spy on their clients.
Real Bitcoiners respect me. Fake Bitcoiners hate me.
PayPal announces Bitcoin news.
Dollar weakest in weeks.

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America Has Never Been Less Great – Ep 620

Sat, 17 Oct 2020 01:33:22 +0000

Bank analysts want more artificial stimulus.
Retail sales surge while production crashes.
PPP monkey business driving spike in business applications.
Borrowing from poorer countries is a sign of decay, not strength.
The income tax is proof that Americans are not a free people.
Hunter Biden compromises national security and economy.
Twitter censors the story from the public.
The coverup is as outrageous as the story.
Washington full of pickpockets, not public servants.

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Almost Everything the Federal Government Does is Unconstitutional – Ep 619

Wed, 14 Oct 2020 03:29:47 +0000

US stock market breaks a 4 day winning streak.
Enormous tax hikes being proposed dwarf tax cuts.
Fed creating a launch pad for gold.
Amy Coney Barrett agrees to maintain unconstitutional precedent.
The government interprets the Constitution to grant themselves unlimited power.

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Trump Out-Democrats the Democrats – Ep 618

Sat, 10 Oct 2020 01:36:54 +0000

Trump extends stimulus olive branch to Pelosi.
Kudlow lies behind his mask.
Republicans cave on spending.
QE goes from tool of last resort to standard operating procedure.
Stimulus begets stimulus.
Dollar breaks down; gold and silver rally.
Gold and silver will move big following the election.
Debates need a referee, not a moderator.
Republicans are being stingy socialists.
Trade deficit with China bigger than before we declared a trade war.
Bitcoin gains on news of Jack Dorsey’s Square allocation.

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Debt Explodes as Stimulus Hopes Implode – Ep 617

Wed, 07 Oct 2020 01:28:04 +0000

Trump temporarily dashes stimulus hopes.
National debt tops $27 Trillion.
Trade deficit in manufactured goods hits all time record high.
Jerome Powell either doesn’t understand the economy or is a liar.
Lower-skilled government workers retiring with multimillion dollar pensions paid for by private sector.
Donald Trump condemns white supremacy, but Joe Biden won’t condemn Socialism.

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Trump COVID Positive, Job Prognosis Negative – Ep 616

Sat, 03 Oct 2020 01:01:55 +0000

Last jobs report before election overshadowed by COVID-positive Trump.
Possibility of a President Pence becomes more probable.
Deregulation and lower taxes would stimulate the economy.
Consumption is the caboose; production is the engine that moves the train forward.
California will need a Federal bailout to pay reparations for the slaves they never had.
Princeton placates mob and gets caught in a lie.
BitMEX founders indicted on criminal charges.
Coinbase bans political discussions.

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A Debate to Forget – Ep 615

Thu, 01 Oct 2020 00:46:32 +0000

Stock market finishes the worst September since 2011.
Silver down on the month, but outperforms stock market on the quarter.
Stephen Roach speculates 35% collapse in the US dollar in 2021.
Paying taxes is nobody’s patriotic duty.
Home appraisers aren’t racist.
Democrats pissed they can’t put black people deeper into debt.
Biden wins the first debate by simply proving he’s not senile.
Trump defends the indefensible about healthcare.
Biden dodges questions about Supreme Court and Green New Deal.

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The Stock Market Needs the Fed More Than Gold – Ep 614

Thu, 24 Sep 2020 00:12:31 +0000

Dollar rallies in the face of stock market fall.
Bubble stocks more bubblicious.
Monetary stimulus only stimulates inflation.
Daymond John wants the government to print more money.
It’s not an L-Shape or V-Shape recovery, because it’s not a recovery.
Too much can kicking has made the can too big.
Democrats throwing stones from their glass house.
Wells Fargo CEO shamed by race baiting mob for telling the truth.

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Political Tension Puts Near-Term “Stimulus” in Doubt – Ep 613

Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:42:49 +0000

Everything gets slammed.
Chart looking weak for the Dow and Russell, strong for silver.
Bloom coming off the rose of economic recovery.
Political tensions rise with death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
US government is the biggest threat to America, not terrorists or COVID.
Fiscal stimulus requires monetary stimulus.
The constitution has to be applied, not interpreted.

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Fed Not Dovish Enough for Markets – Ep 612

Sat, 19 Sep 2020 00:48:14 +0000

Rough ride for the indexes this week.
Fed commits to 0% interest rates until 2023.
Neel Kashkari thinks that’s not enough.
Air is coming out of the retail sales bubble.
Temporarily closed businesses close permanently.
Markets ignoring dangerous warning signs.
Trump stabs Republicans in the back.
American energy companies are dead, but oil prices will rise.
Morgan Stanley wakes up to gold.

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Soaking the rich will drown everyone else – Ep 611

Wed, 16 Sep 2020 01:25:23 +0000

Secretary of Treasury is really Secretary of Debt
Fed doesn’t think Americans are in enough pain.
Education and healthcare are too important for the government to be involved in.
Biden pledges to nationalize corporate America.
The road to serfdom is better than the road we’re on now.

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Fiercest Fires Were Lit by the Fed – Ep 610

Sat, 12 Sep 2020 00:10:40 +0000

Markets end week on a mixed note.
Gold consolidating support above previous highs.
Fed has come out of the closet.
Alan Greenspan sounds more like Peter Schiff as he gets older.
Government did more harm to Americans with the War on Terror than the terrorists did.
Government doing more harm again with the War on COVID than the virus has done.
Government incentives maximum racism.
NFL discriminates.

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The Dollar and Bonds are Bigger Bubbles Than Stocks – Ep 609

Wed, 09 Sep 2020 00:32:08 +0000

NASDAQ has a full blown correction.
TSLA is the poster child of the stock market craziness.
Slack is not an investment.
Air coming out of stock market bubble.
Dave Portnoy is the poster child of day traders.
Bitcoin’s support is weakening.

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Did the Biggest Bubble Ever Just Pop? – Ep 608

Sat, 05 Sep 2020 00:03:35 +0000

The biggest bubble may have popped without a pin.
Charts show bad omen for the NASDAQ.
The biggest bubble ever won’t die easily.
Strength in gold stocks improving.
Tesla (TSLA) sells off.
Treasury market killed.
China commits to dumping US treasuries.
Bond market’s bottom ready to drop.
Bitcoin may never trade above $10,000 again.
Trade deficit biggest since July of 2008.
Jobs numbers are not what they seem.

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The Biggest Bubble Ever – Ep 607

Wed, 02 Sep 2020 02:02:41 +0000

S&P has its best August since 1986.
APPL and TSLA continue soaring after splits.
TSLA rains on its own parade.
Zoom zooms.
Loot this book.
George Floyd died of a drug overdose.
McDonald’s sued for treating black owners equal to white owners.
Rampant wave of race-based lawsuits on the way.

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Inflation will destroy the dollar and the economy – Ep 606

Fri, 28 Aug 2020 23:51:41 +0000

Fed changes the rules for inflation target calculations.
Markets react to Powell's announcement.
Prices go up when people aren’t working.
Majority of middle class will be impoverished Into lower class.
Gold’s resistance has become support.
What Trump Steaks may teach us about the Trump Economy.

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Weak economy enables strong housing market – Ep 605

Wed, 26 Aug 2020 00:29:53 +0000

Good news for Facebook stock is bad news for Main Street.
Housing market booms - just like it did before the 2008 crash.
Layoffs increasing. Many jobs permanently gone.
The voting age should be raised.
Happy Birthday Spencer! Follow my son on Twitter @SpencerSchiff
David Portnoy bails on Bitcoin and Chainlink.
Paul Tudor Jones should be the next big name to bail on crypto.
Cuban-American an emotional and heartfelt warning at the RNC.
Leaked George Floyd tapes show why it’s so important to wait for all the facts.
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Main Street’s Pain is Wall Street’s Gain – Ep 604

Sat, 22 Aug 2020 00:08:30 +0000

S&P and Nasdaq close the week with record highs.
Apple capitalizes on speculator mania with stock split.
Weak economy benefits Wall Street and sedates Main Street.
Real estate booming, but mass defaults may be on the horizon.
Uber shareholders are being exploited, not the drivers.
Republicans have philosophically lost the debates.
Stimulus works great when it comes to buying votes.

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Buffett Boosts Gold Back Above $2,000 – Ep 603

Wed, 19 Aug 2020 00:29:05 +0000

S&P recoups COVID losses, closing today on an all-time high.
Tesla cruises on stock splits driving into the mother of all short squeezes.
Traders will sue Robinhood for their losses.
Dollar index gets smoked.
Warren Buffett knows the inflation tax is coming and he’s trying to avoid it.
Never mind the answers, the news doesn’t even have any questions.
Bitcoin not making any new highs.
Democrat National Convention was an embarrassment to Americans.
$2000 gold may look cheap soon.

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Buffett Buys Barrick Gold, Sells Banks – Ep 602

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 17:38:48 +0000

Berkshire Hathaway loves gold, bets against the US.
Bidders aren’t showing up for 30 year treasury bonds.
Food prices soar and this is just the beginning.
Fair-weather capitalists claim we’re all socialists now.
Socialism is Larry Kudlow’s new credo, now that he works for the government.
Warren Buffet is too smart to buy bitcoin.
California wants to tax out of state residents' wealth.
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Massive shakeout in gold and silver – Ep 601

Wed, 12 Aug 2020 00:53:40 +0000

Gold’s spectacular move down is the sign of a bull market.
Paul Krugman admits inflation is driving up gold price.
Curing COVID won’t cure the economy.
Do-gooders in California will put Uber and Lyft out of business.
Donald Trump’s tax cuts will drive up the inflation tax.
Joe Biden insults black women before nominating Kamala Harris.
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Trump’s executive orders are bad economics and unconstitutional – Ep 600

Sun, 09 Aug 2020 00:51:34 +0000

Gold is up for 9th consecutive week.
Gold stocks scaling a wall of worry.
Clock is ticking on TikTok and WeChat.
Trump acting more like a king than a president.
US government more dangerous to Americans than China’s government is.
Jim Rickards is wrong on inflation.
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Cat 2k Hurricane Goldie blows through Comex – Ep 599

Tue, 04 Aug 2020 23:31:46 +0000

Gold breaks a new milestone at $2000.
New thousand dollar milestones will start dropping like dominos.
https://www.instagram.com/stories/peterschiff/2368614209700051718/
GDX makes a new high for the year.
Crashing dollar will leave many broke millionaires.
Fed codifying commitment to reckless money printing and endless inflation.
16 year olds lip-syncing is not a national security threat.
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U.S. Treasuries are Junk Bonds – Ep 598

Fri, 31 Jul 2020 15:02:51 +0000

July ends with record monthly closes.
Apple becomes world’s most valuable company.
Gold settings records.
Silver has its best month since 1979.
US Dollar has lost better than 99% of its value.
Slow orderly decline could turn into rapid disorderly crash.
10 and 30 year Treasury Bonds close with lowest yields in history.
This is the 1970s on steroids.
Jerome Powell levels up on not thinking about rates.
Meals & Entertainment back on the menu for tax deductions.
Trump’s Kodak moment is not a pretty picture.
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What the dollar losing reserve status portends – Ep 597

Tue, 28 Jul 2020 23:40:53 +0000

Gold and silver rise as the dollar falls.
Bitcoin getting pumped - watch out for the dump.
Don’t go all in on gold.
Quantitative easing is here to stay.
American’s will be much poorer when the dollar loses its reserve status.
Republicans introducing $1 Trillion stimulus bill - Democrats say it’s too small.
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Schiff and Pomp Live on Bitcoin and Gold

Tue, 28 Jul 2020 00:59:57 +0000

Peter Schiff and Anthony Pompliano discuss the big rise in gold, silver, bitcoin, and crypto. Recorded live July 26th 2020.
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The ADA has disabled the disabled for 30 years – Ep 596

Sun, 26 Jul 2020 17:26:39 +0000

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
The ADA further disables the disabled.
American Samoa was crippled by the Fare Wage Act.
Discrimination laws create more discrimination.
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Gold’s record close above $1,900 – Ep 595

Sat, 25 Jul 2020 00:50:10 +0000

US dollar begins it’s decline.
Financial news ignoring the biggest financial story out there.
Intel and Tesla move into bear markets.
Gold up 50% over Trump’s 3.5 years in office.
A brief history of legal tender in the US.
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Investors remain oblivious to gold’s warning – Ep 594

Thu, 23 Jul 2020 23:52:36 +0000

Gold prices tease $1900.
Big gains in silver, but that bull market has barely started.
CNBC oblivious to what this means for economy.
Trend broken of declining unemployment.
A dollar crisis is much worse than a financial crisis.
Wall Street learned nothing from 2008.
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What silver’s breakout really means – Ep 593

Tue, 21 Jul 2020 23:36:53 +0000

Investor money still piling into at-home stocks.
The world is going back to a gold standard whether the Fed wants one or not.
Massive moves in silver coming.
Traders unwinding short spreads on precious metals.
The canary in the coal mine is dropping dead.
The coming crash will likely be worse than I ever imagined.
New government relief package in the works, but we really need relief from the government.
You get less of what you tax and more of what you subsidize.
Payroll tax is a tax on jobs.
Student loans should be forgiven.
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My Joe Rogan Experience – Ep 592

Fri, 17 Jul 2020 02:05:14 +0000

Why I interrupted Joe Rogan.
Are capitalists mean?
Dictionaries changed the definition of inflation.
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Confiscatory taxation is coming – Ep 591

Sat, 11 Jul 2020 02:08:10 +0000

Gold passes $1800 and reaches all time highs in every currency in the world except the US dollar.
China may cut US from trade. China propping up US dollar so US may not be able to buy from anyone soon.
600 financial firms took forgivable PPP loans.
Entrepreneurs created the middle class.
Biden wants equal outcomes, not equal treatment.
Estate Tax is unconstitutional .
Big tax hikes coming.
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Gold keeps knocking on 1800’s door – Ep 590

Wed, 08 Jul 2020 00:23:08 +0000

All indexes in the red today.
Closed down college towns is more bad news for banks.
Massive support built for gold’s bull market.
Gold stock fundamentals continue to improve.
Fascism is Socialism.

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Peter Schiff’s Independence Day Remix

Mon, 06 Jul 2020 00:31:28 +0000

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast Ep 264: https://youtu.be/vdnF9t-kHt4
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast Ep 265: https://youtu.be/onMqKwyhKLw
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast Ep 368: https://youtu.be/XGqHMoY7ris

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Jobs and Stocks Are Nothing to Brag About – Ep 589

Fri, 03 Jul 2020 16:35:47 +0000

Trump disingenuous about job creation.
Employment numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.
The relapse has started.
Gold is a coiled spring and the market is primed for a huge move up.
Check out Larry Elder’s documentary “Uncle Tom”
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Gold Is The New Gold – Ep 588

Tue, 30 Jun 2020 23:39:26 +0000

Air going back into the bubble is fueling Q2’s phony rally from Q1.
Spectacular gains in the gold stocks eclipse the gains in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P.
Gold breaking out and stealing the spotlight from Bitcoin.
The dollar privilege, enjoyed by all Americans, is about to go away.
When the dollar loses its reserve status, gold will take its place.
Congress and the Fed open the door for reparations.
The income tax is racist!

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The V-shaped recovery narrative is falling apart – Ep 587

Sat, 27 Jun 2020 02:26:45 +0000

As I predicted, US stock market continued to be under pressure throughout the week.
Financial stocks lead lower by Goldman Sachs.
Companies that can’t make money need to go out of business.
Betting odds overwhelmingly favor Democrats victory in White House and Senate.
House of Representatives pass bill to make Washington D.C. the 51st state.
When Republicans lose the Senate in November, they may never get it back.
Elizabeth Warren has inside track on Secretary of Treasury in Biden cabinet.
Euro Pacific funds made up for 5 years of under performance in 6 months.

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The Dollar Milk Shake Theory is all Wet – Ep 586

Thu, 25 Jun 2020 19:41:25 +0000

I’m going on the Joe Rogan Experience July 14th.
I’m speaking at FreedomFest July 15th and 16th.
Gold is the last safe haven left standing.
Trump an even bigger underdog than he was in 2016.

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During bad times, a good Fed Chair is not popular – Ep 585

Sat, 20 Jun 2020 20:30:24 +0000

Strong signs we’ve exhausted this bear market rally.
Dollar and Bitcoin bottoms ready to drop from under them.
Real estate sales masking underlying weakness in market.
Trump is the Republican Jimmy Carter.

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Fed buying junk bonds to reward speculators – Ep 584

Wed, 17 Jun 2020 02:08:01 +0000

Powell testifies in front of the Senate.
Fed beholden to Wall Street speculators.
The nail is in the coffin. We are the future generation that has to pay for the Fed’s profligacy.
We’re in the lull before the storm. Dollar crash looming.
I touched the third rail and the mob has come to get me fired.
The bar has been lowered, letting real racists off the hook.

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Trump damage control falls flat as stocks tank – Ep 583

Thu, 11 Jun 2020 22:58:57 +0000

Wall Street sees a sea of red.
Fed is stealing your purchasing power and giving it to someone else.
Government should be lightening the burden it places on the economy.
Trump should make big cuts in government spending.
Market still in denial over likelihood of Democrats winning the White House and Senate in November.
Bernie Sanders won whether he’s on the ticket or not.
Democratic Socialism and slavery reparations are coming to America.
The crisis is just beginning for Bitcoin.

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Powell admits to Fed’s Monetary Hail Mary – Ep 582

Thu, 11 Jun 2020 01:49:29 +0000

Fed not thinking about thinking about raising interest rates.
We dodged a bullet and stepped on a land mine.
Fed gives green light on more stimulus.
Fed creating an inflation episode for the history books.
Mania in stock market driving short-lived successes on Robinhood app.
Other currencies will collapse with the dollar.

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Paying Employers to Recall Workers Boosted Payrolls – Ep 581

Fri, 05 Jun 2020 23:14:31 +0000

Shocking jobs numbers.
Shipping industry virtually non-existent in America due to Jones Act.
White privilege didn’t save Tony Timba.

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Printing Money Matters – Ep 580

Wed, 03 Jun 2020 22:54:07 +0000

Government policies destroy the economy and enable racial injustice. Capitalism is the solution.

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Looting is Socialism without the Middle Man – Ep 579

Tue, 02 Jun 2020 03:40:27 +0000

Rioting now being used to advance Socialist policies.

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We Need to Print the Money to See Where it Goes – Ep 578

Fri, 29 May 2020 23:35:55 +0000

Big moves in gold and silver.
Jerome Powell admits that things are so bad, it’s worth the risk of killing us with the cure.
Personal income surges by 10.5% as consumer spending declines by 13.6%.
Mark Cuban thinks money printers are the economic fountain of youth.
Goldman Sachs couldn’t care less about Bitcoin.
Trump shifts blame from the Federal Reserve to China.
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My 1987 correspondence with Alan Greenspan: https://schiffradio.com/my-1987-correspondence-with-alan-greenspan/

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Do the Math: The U.S. is an Insolvent Zombie Nation – Ep 577

Wed, 27 May 2020 23:32:56 +0000

Market rallying on hope and hype.
Trump’s odds of winning re-election continues decreasing.
Chinese trade deals unwind.
Stimulus more dangerous than virus.
Everything that can go wrong, likely will go wrong, all at the same time.
American taxpayers stuck with 8 years of tax debt and counting.
We are a zombie country and the world is about to find out we’re insolvent.
Jerome Powell saying the antithesis of what a Fed Chair should be saying.
Investors have a lot left to learn, which leaves gold stocks a lot of room to gain.

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Paul Krugman & Stephen Moore Agree – Ep 576

Sat, 23 May 2020 00:44:37 +0000

Paul Krugman & Stephen Moore are both advocating the same policies.
Price for plane tickets are skyrocketing.
Q&A

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Fed To Go All-In On No-Limit QE – Ep 575

Tue, 19 May 2020 22:52:48 +0000

Markets rose yesterday on promising vaccine news and Jerome Powell interview.
Printing money doesn’t solve economic problems, it compounds them.
Powell admits there is no limit to the amount of inflation the Fed will create.
Gold stocks make new highs for the year.
Another big jump for the price of silver.
Best way for some to buy gold right now is with silver.
Government borrowing half of the money it spends.
Most of the world’s currencies at all-time records lows against gold.

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Nothing That Can’t Last Forever Will -Ep 574

Fri, 15 May 2020 23:48:48 +0000

Quiet day in the stock market.
More jobs lost than expected.
Fed’s balance sheet moves through $7 Trillion.
Ron Insana says big deficits are not a problem.
Next crisis will happen overnight.
Retails sales declining fast, even as shoppers hoard groceries.
Netflix and Amazon are not COVID investments.
Federal Reserve illegally grabbed the authority to do what It’s doing.
Gold is at the beginning of a big rise.
Buying the stock market is not contrarian.
Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge.
Q&A

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The Debt Bomb Has a Shorter Fuse Than Anyone Thinks – Ep 573

Thu, 14 May 2020 23:02:55 +0000

Financials take out new lows today before rallying the market positive.
Tech stocks providing false sense of security for the markets.
Powell throws cold water on negative interest rate expectations.
Trump beats the drums demanding negative interest rates.
Betting odds increase on Democrats taking the Senate.
Congressman now proposing to pay people to go off unemployment.
Restaurants will not recover from this.
Entrepreneurs and business owners are the real heroes, not teachers.
Swedish response was more responsible.
Inflation is a consequence of government, never the private sector.
Gold and gold stock charts looking great as markets start to roll over.
Home builders are in trouble.

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Ignore the CPI: Inflation is a Huge Problem – Ep 572

Tue, 12 May 2020 22:54:42 +0000

Stock market drops.
CPI lowest since 2008.
Prices will begin rising higher and sooner than most expect.
$2000 monthly UBI proposed for Americans as young as 16 years old
Socialists love coronavirus even more than they love climate change.
Norwegian Airlines sets an example the US should follow.
Bitcoin halves.

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Most of the Lost Jobs Aren’t Coming Back – Ep 571

Sat, 09 May 2020 00:29:11 +0000

Market rallies on worst jobs report in history.
Decimated gig economy isn’t even factored in.
Majority of service industry jobs are not coming back.
If nobody’s producing, nobody’s consuming.
Market’s now factoring in negative interest rates.
Second wave of layoffs coming.
Businesses now at risk of regular shutdowns.

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The Economy is Far Weaker than Investors Believe – Ep 570

Wed, 06 May 2020 22:45:28 +0000

Fog lifting on the recovery narrative.
Tech stocks strong on hope.
Government ready to sacrifice other businesses to save Boeing.
Fed feeding the same BS from 2008 about unwinding stimulus.
Financial stocks are the canaries in the coal mine, and they’re dropping dead.
National Debt passes 25 trillion dollars.

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Has Reality Ended the Bear Market Rally? – Ep 569

Sat, 02 May 2020 00:49:02 +0000

Government encouraging people not to work.
Jim Cramer’s restaurant can’t stand the heat.
Businesses at increased risk for lawsuits.
Nobody is forced to go to work.
Democrats don’t believe all women.
Q&A.
Link to my Standup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne__pTRAenc&t=42s

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It’s Time to Worry About the Debt When the Fed’s Not – Ep 568

Thu, 30 Apr 2020 23:16:30 +0000

Final trading day in April will go into the record books.
Markets ignoring more bad economic data.
Jerome Powell flashes the green light to buy gold.
US considers suing China and defaulting on debt.
Money supply surges by a third of a trillion dollars in a week.
Major housing real estate disaster before us.
Travon Martin Hoax Free Video: https://youtu.be/QAw5ykIPOBM

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The Era of Big Government Never Ended – Ep 567

Wed, 29 Apr 2020 00:09:34 +0000

More bad data getting a pass.
Confidence doesn’t drive an economy, but it does reflect bubbles.
Trade deficit imbalance getting worse.
You cannot consume what has not been produced.
We’re still paying taxes imposed to win WWII.
Jeff Gundlach blocked me.

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The Debt Time Bomb May Soon Detonate – Ep 566

Sat, 25 Apr 2020 01:39:38 +0000

Inflation video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI3Nya5L9g
The economy was sick long before the coronavirus.
Businesses need big government to bail them out because of big government.
The economy will be a lot smaller at the end of this year.
Economic stimulus is actually a sedative.
Working from home will be a lasting change that will affect real estate.
Q&A

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Soon Even The Village Idiot Will be Buying Gold Stocks – Ep 565

Wed, 22 Apr 2020 22:46:21 +0000

Gold stocks a coiled spring; prices already doubled in one month.
Paper gold might end up as just paper.
More money for small businesses will be fraudulently claimed by big businesses.
People are about to find out he economy isn’t a light switch and won’t just switch back on.
Gold has no ceiling and the dollar has no floor.

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First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices – Ep 564

Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:30:57 +0000

Oil prices collapse into the negatives.
Lower oil prices are still inflationary.
Gold ETFs beginning to look risky as supplies lag demand.
Oil and gold may be the one-two punch that takes out the dollar.
The gold standard is coming back.
Unlike oil, at least Bitcoin will only go to zero.

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Government will Kill More Businesses Than it Saves – Ep 563

Sat, 18 Apr 2020 01:47:27 +0000

Optimism in market from progress toward vaccine.
Wall Street showing their bias against gold stocks.
Fed’s balance sheet climbing toward 7 trillion.
Bailouts will kill businesses.
Q&A

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Self-inflicted Wounds Can Be Just as Fatal – Ep 562

Thu, 16 Apr 2020 02:10:48 +0000

Markets rallied yesterday and surrendered it all back today.
Financials did not participate in yesterday’s rally, signaling trouble ahead.
Banks getting backdoor bailouts.
Lenders clamping down on mortgages as housing market prepares to collapse.
Donald Trump buys votes with voters’ money.
2020 Election comes down to a Democrat vs. a Democrat.

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Gold Smokes Bitcoin – Ep 561

Mon, 13 Apr 2020 22:54:51 +0000

Gold hits 7 year high and is still cheaper than it’s ever been.
Mining stocks even better bargain than the metals.
Amazon and Netflix overvalued and waiting for bottom to drop.
Don’t fight the Fed.
Still not too late to buy gold.
Presidential election will be a bidding war for benefits and handouts.
US is producing less of everything except for money.
Real estate prices are going to collapse.
Cigarettes are a better currency than Bitcoin.

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More QEs than Super Bowls – Ep 560

Thu, 09 Apr 2020 21:53:10 +0000

Another week, another multi-trillion dollar Fed program.
Government spending has to be paid in either taxation or inflation and we’re about to pay for it in spades.
Trump draining the whole country instead of just the swamp - will add more debt in 4 years than Bush did in 8.
Unemployed will stay unemployed for a long time.
We’re buying time before an explosive rise in gold prices.
You can’t outperform a bubble.
Betting against the economy is not the same as rooting against the economy.

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Former Fed Chairs Still as Clueless as Ever – Ep 559

Wed, 08 Apr 2020 00:39:14 +0000

Markets overly optimistic that the worst is behind us.
Trump keeps his friends close and his enemies closer - gets Kudlow to repudiate everything he spent an entire career advocating.
Fed chairs past and present are clueless.
RINO DJT joins the ranks of FDR, JFK, and LBJ Dems.

Must watch Janet Yellen exposed videos referenced in this podcast
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-9aZrmYEqk

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Is Recovering from Depression to Recession a Recovery? – Ep 558

Fri, 03 Apr 2020 14:22:44 +0000

Jobs numbers came out today and the news didn’t matter.
Art Laffer knows there’s no free lunch - calls stimulus taxation.
Nothing is as permanent as a temporary government program.
S&P reaffirms US AA+ rating.

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The Tide is Out and Everyone’s Been Swimming Naked – Ep 557

Thu, 02 Apr 2020 14:20:18 +0000

China cashing in treasuries for oil.
Unemployment exploding.
Bankruptcies and layoffs to continue.
The old saying about the piper having to be paid is an old saying for a reason.

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The Fed’s Medicine Makes the Economy Sicker – Ep 556

Wed, 01 Apr 2020 14:17:59 +0000

Trying to fix this economy is like trying to unscramble an egg.
Government short circuiting capitalism.
Investors will rush to sell and there won’t be any buyers.
Politicians exploiting coronavirus to grab power, buy votes, hide blame.

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Printing Money Doesn’t Make Government Free – Ep 555

Tue, 31 Mar 2020 14:14:25 +0000

Full speed ahead to hyperinflation city.
Congress passed a 2.2 trillion dollar bill and already want more.
Employment is a hazard. Unemployment may become a gravy train.
Inflationary pressure mounting as companies retool their factories to make masks, ventilators, sanitizer, and other coronavirus related products.
Donald Trump is now the president of the United States AND the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

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America is Already a Socialist Nation – Ep 554

Fri, 27 Mar 2020 14:08:24 +0000

Here's the link to Dave Ramsey agreeing with Peter Schiff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jsQ-EdQYVU
Thomas Massie vilified for having integrity.
Every other Republican should change their party affiliation to Democrat.
Bankruptcies don’t destroy industries — they destroy moral hazards.
Bernie may be a socialist, but Trump is officially a communist now.
US government now has the authority to nationalize any business in the country, providing the mechanism for a communist revolution without firing a shot.
The dollar is falling and the Fed can no longer pretend there will be an end to QE
The Gold Standard is coming back, but will coronavirus disrupt the gold miners?

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Bernie Sanders has already won – Ep 553

Thu, 26 Mar 2020 14:04:45 +0000

Market rallies on relief of stimulus bill passing and biggest government expansion since the New Deal.
Increasing evidence that this will be the longest bear market in history, like the fact that the “experts” on CNBC believe the opposite.
Dollar starting to sink as fed dilutes its value with endless money printing.
The Greater Depression has just begun.
Unemployment now more lucrative than employment.

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QE Infinity and Beyond! – Ep 552

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 23:06:36 +0000

The Dow had the biggest rally today since 1933 during the Great Depression.
Physical gold market is selling out of inventory.
Stimulus package dragging on as Democrats pack in the porkbarrel.
The digital dollar is coming.
Pandora’s box has been opened on landlords.

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LIVE: QE infinity is here!

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:19:50 +0000

Spread the word. Help make knowledge go viral!

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The Bubble Behind the Virus – Ep 551

Fri, 20 Mar 2020 23:46:32 +0000

Volatile day and week for the Dow, which ended down almost a thousand today..

The sacrifices we made in WWII are completely different than the sacrifices we’re making now

Milkshake theory is working, for now.

IRS deadlines should be postponed to Election Day.

Gold seeing more buyers; Bitcoin seeing less.

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Helicopter money was meant to be a joke – Ep 550

Fri, 20 Mar 2020 02:10:32 +0000

Dow ends it’s streak of thousand point moves after 8 consecutive days.
The unemployment claims are skyrocketing and they’re going to increase.
America lost every war it ever fought.
The government will not let this coronavirus crisis go to waste.
CNBC brings in captains of industry to weigh in with their bad ideas.
CEOs are looking for bailouts to protect their ownership of the companies, not the companies themselves.
Helicopter money was a term invented as a joke. Now the joke’s on us.

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LIVE with Peter Schiff: The Real Crash Is Here

Thu, 19 Mar 2020 21:19:34 +0000

Peter Schiff is live and taking your questions as his predictions of the Real Crash unfold before our eyes. Streamed live March 18th.

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Wall St. Bailout 2.0 – Ep 549

Wed, 18 Mar 2020 02:23:08 +0000

Another day, another couple trillion dollars in QE. Fed doing everything they can to prevent market forces from raising interest rates to a market clearing level.

Sometimes stocks trade on peoples’ emotions and we’re seeing a lot of that now. Today marked the seventh consecutive day that the dow has moved by 1000 points. Markets surge on Trump’s promise of helicopter money and bailouts.

Dollar rallies sharply on what may be a technical head-fake. Gold likely finding it’s bottom and set to go higher.

Donald Trump is.a Socialist now and he’s trying to buy the election by bribing the electorate.

Elizabeth Warren has some conditions.

And while this podcast was being recorded, another bailout was announced!

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Fed cuts rates to zero, ramps up QE – Ep 548

Tue, 17 Mar 2020 01:01:18 +0000

Fed finally did what I’ve been saying they would for years: cut rates to zero with the biggest point cut in history. Powell afraid to call it QE.

There are no atheists in foxholes; there are no free-market capitalists in a recession. If we fought WWII with bailouts, like the way we’re fighting coronavirus, we’d be speaking German now.

Waiting in line for food and toilet paper does not mean business is booming. Neither is having full hospitals.

More records broken today as the Dow lost almost 3,000 points - the biggest single day point drop in history! Percentage-wise, it was the second biggest drop percentage in history, next to the stock market crash of 1987. For all the years of the Great Depression and WWII, the economy never saw a drop like this.

The stock market has never lost this much value this quickly. The whole rest of the world is now tapping into their savings, but we have nothing left to rely on other than a printing press.

Gold takes a hit as investors cover their losses, but still down only 2% on the year compared to the Dow down 32%. Gold is liquid, easy to sell, yet its barely down, even though so many people are desperate enough to sell it.

Trump “pleasantly surprised” Powell followed his orders after having his job threatened.

Oh, and banks no longer need reserves.

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Bailout spreads nationwide – Ep 547

Sat, 14 Mar 2020 04:05:58 +0000

Dow up almost 2,000 points today; a record point gain, 10th biggest percentage gain, with most larger gains occurring during the bear market of the 1930s. We had a lot of stock market firsts this week and it was one of choppiest weeks on record.

Trump announces beginning of national bailout including open-ended moratorium on student interest loans, allowing debtors put their loans into deferment indefinitely and never pay them again. Trump leaves door open to bailout any industry in the country.

Lawsuits driving many shutdowns across the country.

Gold’s recent late day buys a sign of illiquid investors trying to get in at lows.

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Fed’s QE “cure” is fatal to the economy – Ep 546

Fri, 13 Mar 2020 02:07:16 +0000

Market reacted poorly to Trump’s Wednesday night coronavirus address. Today’s historic drop was the biggest since the 1987 crash.

Fed’s cure will be worse than coronavirus and fatal for US economy. QE5 coming with more cheap money and artificially low interest rates. CNBC says this is nothing like 2008, but everything about it is like 2008.

Jim Cramer proposes the US government suspend collecting taxes, increase all spending — and print all the money needed to pay for it.

Short term noise and illiquidity affecting gold stock. Nothing is a safe-haven on a daily basis.

Bond vigilantes are waking up and the bond market is starting to blow up.

Bitcoin and crypto market crash. CNBC remains silent. The whole bitcoin narrative is blowing up.

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Longest bull market in history officially ends – Ep 545

Thu, 12 Mar 2020 01:56:29 +0000

Longest bull market in US history is officially over and it’s the fastest we’ve ever gone from record highs to a bear market.

The same financial anchors who said not to worry about the banks in 2008 are saying the same thing now.

Dollar gained on yesterday’s strength, but still in a downtrend. Gold prices acting very similar to 2008.

Biden can’t lost and Trump can’t win.

Kudlow saying the same nonsense he was saying as a cheerleader of the President’s economy, except now he’s actually a player in it.

Inflation, even the way the government measures it, is breaking out of its slumber.

Companies more afraid than ever of legal consequences.

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Did fiscal stimulus just prick the bond bubble? – Ep 544

Wed, 11 Mar 2020 01:54:03 +0000

Markets, bitcoin, and the dollar had a Reversal Tuesday fueled by Trump’s promise of massive artificial fiscal stimulus. Trump trying to buy a second term, but with democrats holding stimulus hostage, stimulus will come with socialist labor laws and Keynesian helicopter money. Betting markets see now see Trump as the underdog.
Mandated paid sick leave will hurt employees.

Bailouts for oil, airlines, hotels, and cruise ships are just another backdoor bailout for the banks.

While all the safe-haven assets dropped today, bitcoin’s price rose along with the other risk assets. Bitcoin now trades highly correlated with the stock market.

Joe Biden’s gender-based VP list is sexist. Bernie Sanders says America’s tax system should be more like Sweden, then admits he knows very little about it.

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It’s not the oil, it’s the debt – Ep 543

Tue, 10 Mar 2020 00:25:36 +0000

Oil war that began today will bankrupt many US companies. 60% of stocks in Russell 2000 are lower now than when Donald “the stock market president” Trump took office. Financials continue to get clobbered and stimulus won’t help them this time. This time nobody will believe QE is temporary or interest rates will normalize. Australia looking to repeat the mistakes of others central banks.
Gold broke $1700 today, but didn’t break out. All the babies were thrown out with all the bathwater, including gold mining stocks. Gold price much stronger during this crisis than in 2008. In contrast, the dollar is now falling against other currencies. Massive swings in the currency markets leaving the dollar crumbling against other major safe-haven currencies, unlike in 2008 when that crisis sent the dollar soaring. Gold has much less ground to recover now so if it reacts the way it did after the fed’s last bailout, it has a lot more upside ahead.
Perfect conditions for a bitcoin rally, yet it’s collapsing as it fails to live up to hype and people realize it’s nothing more than digital risk. CNBC suddenly and conveniently seems to have forgotten the word “bitcoin.” Phenomenal opportunity now to dump bitcoin and buy gold before the bottom really drops out on bitcoin.

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Financial conditions are rapidly deteriorating – Ep 542

Sat, 07 Mar 2020 00:41:22 +0000

Week closes out with another big drop in the markets. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 hit new lows. Russell 2000 on-track to have lost value during Trump’s four years in office.

Oil prices are plunging, which is bullish news for gold mining companies as their production costs decrease and gold prices increase.

Fed’s balance sheet rose by a whole month's worth in one week and it looks like that trend will continue in the weeks to come. Fed’s crisis hasn’t even begun.

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Multiple bubbles pricked by same pin – Ep 541

Fri, 06 Mar 2020 00:28:12 +0000

Another huge move down in the markets today. Heavy carnage in the banks as treasury yields plunge.

Fed’s days of bubble blowing are over. Next dose of stimulus will be the overdose. Coronavirus may be the pin that pricks stock market, bond market, and bitcoin bubbles.

More bad news expected as the only previously strong jobs market, travel and leisure, starts to suffer from coronavirus. Layoffs will trickle through the economy quickly.

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The Fed’s gonna need a bigger rate cut – Ep 540

Wed, 04 Mar 2020 00:10:44 +0000

* More bearish technical signs in the market. Fed issues an historic 50-basis-point, inter-meeting, emergency rate cut. Investors are realizing Fed can’t cure the coronavirus or the markets with their rate cuts.
* Fed’s rate cut is decisively bullish for gold and silver. As the market was tanking, gold had one of it’s best days in a while, signaling more strength ahead.
* Who were Friday's gold sellers?
* Better to have been early and right, than late and wrong. The Real Crash is coming.
* Democrats would rather lose with Biden than risk winning with Sanders

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Stimulus overdose to propel gold to new highs – Ep 539

Tue, 03 Mar 2020 00:51:32 +0000

Bear markets have notoriously big rallies as they fall down the slope of hope. Today’s record breaking 1200 point rally in the Dow may be an example of that. Markets betting on a 50 basis point rate cut to interest rates and more quantitative easing.

Part of the market rally likely also due to diminishing chance of a Bernie Sanders presidency. But Biden will also be bad for the markets and he has a greater chance of winning

Nothing goes up in straight lines. Bull markets have notoriously big declines as they climb the wall of worry, which we may have seen on Friday. Gold stock positioned for record highs.

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When a market priced for perfection doesn’t get it – Ep 538

Fri, 28 Feb 2020 01:06:09 +0000

* Dow down 404% with a record 1200 point drop.
* Coronavirus damage to the market cannot be undone
* Major discounts in the gold mining stocks
* Coronavirus task force is more like a plunge protection team for the stock market
* Fed’s bullets may no longer work against superman bubble
* I have a PR problem in PR

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Bitcoin pumpers forced to admit it’s not digital gold – Ep 537

Thu, 27 Feb 2020 00:47:12 +0000

US stock market pounded again for the 6th day in a row.
Two back to back days with markets down 3%. The only time it’s ever happened three days in a row was during the great depression.
Gold living up to its role as a store of value.
Bitcoin fails the test as a reserve currency.
Bitcoin pumpers forced to admit it is not digital gold. It’s digital risk.
Democrat candidates pander against each other.

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Gold will be the only safe haven left standing – Ep 536

Tue, 25 Feb 2020 00:59:11 +0000

* All major indexes down and looking weak.
* Bubble is looking for a pin and coronavirus might be it.
* Dumb money is piling into treasuries. Safe-haven money is moving to gold.
* CNBC still obsessed with bitcoin. Remains silent on record breaking gold prices.
* Warren Buffet thinks Bitcoin is garbage and it’s going to $0.
* Baby Boomers sowed the winds for socialism.
* If you thought Obama was bad with executive orders, just wait for a President Sanders.
* The markets will drop by 50% under President Sanders.
* More people will die from the Sanders virus than coronavirus.

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Bonds are the bubble, gold is the pin – Ep 535

Sat, 22 Feb 2020 02:57:41 +0000

* Significant moves in the bond market today.
* Coronavirus is inflationary.
* US has never been less credit-worthy than it is right now.
* US treasuries have the lowest yields in history and are GUARANTEED TO LOSE money.
* Bond market is now undisputedly a bubble, but CNBC spins a different view.
* I won a bet.
* Perspective is everything when it comes to an investment strategy.

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CNBC dismisses Citi’s $2k gold call and pumps Bitcoin instead – Ep 534

Fri, 21 Feb 2020 00:49:30 +0000

Liz Claman has a new podcast called “Everyone Talks to Liz Claman.” It’s a great show and I was on it earlier this week where I talked about growing up, some personal stories, and things you haven’t heard me talk about in other interviews. I highly encourage you to check out the episode here.

Coronavirus continues to help the dollar, but is helping gold even more. Gold’s bull market continues upward as more countries see their currencies lose record value to gold.

Citibank calls for $2k gold within 1-2 years. CNBC dismisses the call as an unimpressive 25% gain and pumps bitcoin instead.

Gold may be the best hedge against the stock market. Gold ETFs have accumulated a record amount of gold in storage.

Gold is up 60% in the past 4 years. Get your gold and silver BEFORE the big moves start happening.

* The best way to own physical gold is by purchasing it from SchiffGold.
* The best way to own gold jewelry is by purchasing from Menet jewelry. If you bought some when I first promoted it, you could trade it in for MORE gold than you originally purchased.
* If you want to see more of a return on gold’s climb, buy the Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX)

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QE won’t cure the Coronavirus or the economy – Ep 533

Wed, 19 Feb 2020 02:12:49 +0000

Coronavirus may be worse than anyone thought, but why aren’t the markets worried?

Gold mining stocks looking positive again.

Underlying weakness in the dollar being revealed in gold.

Obama and Trump are fighting over a booming economy that doesn’t exist.

1/3rd of Americans run out of money between paychecks.

Over 25% of households spend half or more of their income on rent.

Delinquencies on auto-loans are higher now than they were at the worst part of the great recession.

Bernie Sanders has an advantage over Michael Bloomberg.

Art Laffer cheerleads Trump on Fox Business.

Trump nominates ass-kissing liar to the Fed.

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The political center keeps moving left – Ep 532

Thu, 13 Feb 2020 01:30:45 +0000

Nobody seems to be talking about the downward revisions in the jobs reports, particularly for 2018. Trump’s celebrated jobs numbers have been revised down 370k jobs for that year.

Obama’s weak jobs record is better than Trump’s. A lot more jobs were created in the last 3 years of Obama’s presidency than the last 3 years of Trump’s.

Deficits are exploding through the roof. Trump is setting records in government debt, but thanks to Trump and the Republicans, no one cares about the deficits anymore.

Gold hit a record high in terms of the Euro, which means people who are bearish on the Euro are turning to gold as a safe-haven.

Stock market doesn’t seem to be worried about the possibility of a President Bernie Sanders. Maybe they want more QE and negative interest rates?

Bernie Sanders can out-promise Trump and people are underestimating the power of all that free money.

Sean Hannity’s fake outrage is not a good look.

Owning a home does not make you wealthy.

Bitcoin may be rising now, but it’s still not gold.

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The Trump Show – Ep. 531

Thu, 06 Feb 2020 03:19:40 +0000

The impeachment trial of Donald Trump ends no real surprise, he was acquitted. The whole thing came down along party lines and was all calculated political theater and posturing for the 2020 election.

But the real theater was during Trump’s State of the Union last night. Trump pitched socialist policies and touted his fake Chinese trade deal. He spoke to Congress for 90 minutes and not once mentioned the national debt. Since Trump took office, trade deficits have increased and manufacturing jobs have decreased. More women are forced to join the workforce due to economic circumstances at home.

If the economy were as good as Trump claims, he’d be calling on congress to cut spending or balance the budget or reduce the size of budget deficits. If you can’t tackle the debt when the economy is in the greatest boom in the history of the world, when can you tackle it? Trump apparently can’t find one program or agency to cut spending on. Instead he just bragged about all the social programs and weapons he was spending money on, not to mention Space Force!

Trump is playing a massive PR game right now.

Rush Limbaugh has cancer.

Liberals are sick.

Pete Budajudge wins the Iowa Caucus disaster.

Sanders wants to give new “Rights” to the disabled.

Markets have recouped from their recent “coronavirus sell-off.”

Ford Motor Company earnings disappoint investors.

GM is still trading where it was 7 years ago.

Tesla is a bubble in itself.

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Coronavirus excuse masks nascent bear market – Ep. 530

Sat, 01 Feb 2020 01:02:29 +0000

“So goes January, so goes the year.” If the old adage is true, this could mean the longest bull market in history is coming to an end. And from a political perspective, it couldn’t come at a worse time.

Another adage in investing is “buy the rumor sell the fact.” I mentioned in a recent podcast that investors would soon be selling the facts behind Trump’s trade deal. Well, it didn’t take very long for the markets to find a reason to sell.

The markets were clobbered today and contrary to what the media says, the coronavirus is not the reason. It’s just an excuse and if they didn’t have the coronavirus, they’d find something else to blame. A lot of the stocks going down are retailers and have nothing to do with coronavirus. If the coronavirus passes and this slump in the market doesn’t, reasons for optimism will start fade fast.

2019 numbers show only 2.3% GDP growth. Could 3 rate cuts and a return to QE possibly be the reason?

Joe Biden gave Bernie Sanders a bone by claiming he’s not a real Democrat. Voters are sick of party insiders and this will backfire on Biden the way it did on the Republican candidates when they accused Trump of not being a real Republican.

Nobody would invent keto ice cream in a Socialist economy.

Gold stocks continue to be undervalued. This is a gift horse and you don’t want to look it in the mouth.

Gold is up again. If gold is this strong with the headwind of a strengthening dollar, just imagine the strength it will have with the tailwind of a falling dollar.

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Sanders surge more dangerous than coronavirus – Ep. 529

Tue, 28 Jan 2020 01:07:23 +0000

Weak days for the stock market Friday and Monday will likely be blamed on the coronavirus.

The real virus to be concerned about is Bernie Sanders as he infects more voters with his rapidly spreading burn.

Bernie Sanders was on Phil Donahue in 1981 when it made news that a Vermont town elected a Socialist mayor. Phil Donahue asks if he believed in competition. Bernie Sanders said no. He said he believes in cooperation, a.k.a. Socialism/Marxism/Communism.

Bernie has certainly been very consistent. He’s been saying the same things the past 30-40 years, but he’s been wrong the whole time. He never grew up, became wise, or developed intellectually. He’s Peter Pan except he can’t fly.

The stock market has barely started to react to the possibility of a Sanders president and that possibility may be becoming a probability. And if not Sanders 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in a good position for 2024

Frustrated father questions Elizabeth Warren about her student loan policies and she laughs in his face.

Gold is up better than 4% for the year and there are more reasons to be bullish on gold stocks.

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Capitalism empowers people. Socialism empowers government – Ep. 528

Thu, 23 Jan 2020 03:46:14 +0000

While I was at VRIC, Trump was in Davos touting to other world leaders the “unmatched” period of prosperity America is experiencing, thanks to him.

Trump claims that nobody benefits more from his presidency than the middle class. In reality, the only people benefitting are the asset owners - the 1%.

There are more women than men in the workforce for the first time ever. Housing prices and household income are at all-time highs. Trump spins these as signs of a healthy economy, but the opposite is true.

This period of prosperity America is going through is a figment of Trump’s imagination, but the Republican party and Wall St aren’t questioning it.

On CNBC, Trump tells Joe Kernen that he still doesn’t know who’s buying these negative yielding bonds. He admits to having no intentions of paying off the national debt or cutting government spending. Trump pretends we can pay for it all with the bubble that he thinks is an economic “boom.” Trump and the Fed are proving there is no exit strategy for these inflationary policies.

Tesla stock, the most heavily shorted stock has skyrocketed, putting shorts through the grinder.

Sanders passes Biden to #1 in the Democratic presidential polls. Democrats are worried because Sanders will actually try the socialist policies that they know won’t work. It’s not common a Democratic presidential candidate has principles. Unfortunately, this time those principles are socialism. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and the people who vote for Sanders are going to be feeling the burn worse than anyone.

If you thought socialism was scary, AOC has gone full blown communist. She says inventors, business owners, and entrepreneurs are stealing off the backs of the workers and the workers should organize and steal those businesses back.

AOC and Bernie are reactions to Trump and when this economy finally blows up on Trump’s watch, it’s going to pave the way for a socialist (or worse) president of the United States of America. And there may not be any coming back from that.

Also, I lost all my bitcoin. They’re gone.

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The Art of the Fake Trade Deal – Ep. 527

Thu, 16 Jan 2020 02:30:39 +0000

Dow Jones closed above 29,000 today for the first time ever. Part of the impotence of this rally has been anticipation of the trade deal with China, but the majority of the rally is due to the policies of the Fed as it quietly returns to quantitative easing. The so-called good news of the trade deal is in the past and traders who were buying the rumors may start selling off on the facts. Especially since the facts of the trade deal didn’t even live up to the rumors.

The trade deal is a big fat disappointment that didn’t live up to Trump’s hype. It’s not even a real deal; it’s written as a bunch of suggestions that either party can back-out of at any time. The deal is a double-win for China. It supposedly commits China to buying more food and energy from the U.S., but China ends up getting the commodities they need with an easy way to unload their U.S. treasuries before they collapse. The Fed will have to buy more treasuries and print more money, to keep interest rates from going up.

Gold market stronger now after the trade deal signed. Gold’s technicals haven’t looked like this since 2000 when the dot com bubble burst and gold’s bear market ended. Americans don’t see the gold bull market that foreigners do because gold has made a new high in every currency except the U.S. dollar and is outperforming foreign stock markets, but not the U.S. stock market.

Fed released a weak jobs report with a big loss of 12,000 manufacturing jobs. Americans are working less hours and getting paid less for the hours they work.

Bloomberg wins the democratic debates by not showing up. Democratic presidential candidates are right about healthcare costs being too high, but they’re wrong about the reasons and solutions.

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War is off so risk is on – Ep. 526

Fri, 10 Jan 2020 00:59:35 +0000

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are less diffused than everyone seems as the propaganda strengthens on both sides of the political theater.

NASDAQ, Dow, S&P hit new record highs. Trump is eager for Dow to hit 30k so he can tweet up a storm claiming credit.

Risk premiums for crude and gold are still there although gold mining stocks got obliterated as war became less imminent. Investors were spooked as gold dropped from $1610 to $1540 in a 24 hour period. Despite gold mining stocks getting crushed, gold itself is up 2% for the year. This presents an even better buy for gold stocks as they catch up to gold’s $1550 support.

People are underestimating the popularity of socialism in America and investors are underestimating the possibility of a Bernie Sanders win.

A lawsuit tries to postpone California’s new law aimed at the gig economy. Lawmakers say it’s to protect independent contractors, but it’s the independent contractors filing the lawsuit.

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Iranian missiles launch gold past $1,600 – Ep. 525

Wed, 08 Jan 2020 01:09:00 +0000

We had a break-through in gold, which I predicted could happen. That means there’s a very good chance gold is done going down. All signs point to a big bull market in gold and the window of opportunity to get in on it may be closing rapidly. While recording this podcast, reports of a U.S. airbase in Iraq under attack from Iranian missiles launched gold above $1,600.

It’s amazing how little people understand about how well gold mining stocks are performing. While the S&P has returned 72% over the past 4 years, GDX has returned 125% over the same period. Over the past 5 quarters, S&P is up 12% while GDX is up 58%. You won’t hear any of that on CNBC.

I think the best way to gain exposure to gold mining stocks is to buy the Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX), managed by the expert, Adrian Day. Morning Star gave the Euro Pacific Gold Fund 5 stars and it’s been the number 1 performing gold fund from 2013 to 2018. The fund is also rated to have above average returns and below average risks, making it one of the smartest investments you can make right now.

Videos to watch:
Peter Schiff at Occupy Wall Street "I am the 1%. Let's Talk"
Democrats: Let’s Ban Profits
2006 Mortgage Bankers Speech
Walmart Shoppers Support Everyday High Wages
Is a College Degree Worth the Cost? You Decide
Peter Schiff Argues Against 3 Typical Liberals (my last appearance on CNN)
Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington (first Congressional testimony)
Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington (second Congressional testimony)
Peter Schiff Stand-up Comedy .

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Gold climbs wall of worry to $1,550 – Ep. 524

Sat, 04 Jan 2020 02:58:49 +0000

Markets off to a volatile start for the new year.

U.S. assassinates an Iranian military general driving up safe haven investments like oil, gold, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Treasury market. Gold outshines them all. But is the world safer or more dangerous than ever?

Bitcoin touted as the best performing asset of the decade. But it’s not that simple.

CNBC thinks the hardest job for the Fed is creating inflation. The biggest problem is really their inability to stop inflation. The monetary spigots are flowing heavy and they’re going to flow even heavier leading up to the election.

It’s a dangerous time for markets with the coming election. There was a time when America would never vote in socialism, but that’s no longer the case. This election may bring in one of the largest single day stock market drops in history.

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Ringing in a Decade of Stagflation – Ep. 523

Tue, 31 Dec 2019 02:18:29 +0000

Second to Last Trading of the Decade...
All of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the second to last trading day of this year in the red. Although, it's not just the second to last trading day of the year, it is the second to last trading day of the decade. Technically speaking, I know the next decade doesn't really start until January 1, 2021, but practically speaking, it's going to be the 20's. So, to me, that's a new decade.
Closing With a Gain of About 30% in the S&P
So let's just say tomorrow is the last trading day of the decade. And even if we get another decline tomorrow, I don't know what's going to happen - maybe we'll get a bounce, but I doubt it will be significant enough to turn the tide on this bull market or this bubble - bear market rally - whatever you want to call it - but it looks like we're going to close the year with a gain of about 30% in the S&P 5000.
Not our Strongest Year in Recent Memory
That's going to put the market with its best annual increase since 2013 - which, of course is not that long ago. So we did have a rise in 2013 when Obama was President, where the S&P had a year that was as good as this year, with Donald Trump as President. So clearly, it's not simply a case that we have Trump as President and that's why we have such a strong market. We've had plenty of years where the market was this strong and Trump wasn't President. In fact, Barack Obama was President. One of the reasons that the market was so strong this year is because it finished last year so weak. I think the 4th quarter of last year we were down 13 - 14% - but it was a very big decline which would have been much much bigger but for that record surge the day after Christmas. Remember that Boxing Day - I think the Dow was up about 1,000 points.

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America’s Economy Is the Biggest Bubble Ever – Ep. 522

Sat, 21 Dec 2019 19:41:35 +0000

Liz Claman, Gene Epstein, Jim Grant, Peter Schiff, David Tice, Tom Woods at the NYC Premier of Jimmy Morrison's "The Bubble" Order The Bubble here
November Personal Income and Spending Positive
On Friday, all of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the day and the week positive, in record territory. The only index not in record territory (but it did make a new 52-week high) is the Russell 2000. The supposed catalyst for Friday's optimism was a better than expected report on Personal Income & Spending for November. They were looking for personal spending to rise by .3% following the prior month's flat number. They actually revised that one up to +.1%, and the November number came out at +.5%, so incomes rising. Spending came in and met expectations of +.4%, so apparently the savings rate ticked up a bit. But this was better than expected. I think that caused some optimism on Wall Street.
Kansas City Manufacturing Index Disappoints
But the markets likely would have gone up, anyway, even if that number disappointed. We did get weak data from manufacturing. Kansas City manufacturing number came out for November. It was supposed to be weak at a -3%, but it was even weaker at -8%. That is the lowest level for this index in 4 years. . In fact, we've had 6 consecutive monthly declines in the Kansas City Manufacturing Index, and that really is par for the course. We get stronger economic data when it comes to people spending money but we have weaker data when it comes to generating real production, real wealth, goods production manufacturing - all that data comes out weaker than expected.
U.S. Steel Lays off 1,500 Workers in Michigan
In fact, we got news on Friday that U.S. is going to be laying off more than 1500 workers in the state of Michigan. Of course, this flies in the face of the fantasy that is being promoted by Donald Trump that the steel industry is back - the steel industry is booming. He's been talking a lot since he's been elected about the steel industry, in particular, about how he saved it, and how it's great. But here we are, laying off workers, shutting down production facilities. This is a sign that reality is in direct contradiction to President Trump's fantasy.

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Trayvon Martin Race Hoax Exposed – Ep. 522

Wed, 18 Dec 2019 23:55:40 +0000

Narrative of Racism
So I decided to record a special edition of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, and it's very important topic, and I also wanted to include some video. It's not directly related to the economy or the markets, but really, indirectly, it is, because this nation is being pushed to the left by a lot of false narratives. One of them, being racism, particularly when it comes to the issues of wealth disparity and trying to blame the difference in wealth between African Americans and the general population, and the reason for this is because of a pervasive and systemic racism, and that the only way that African Americans can succeed is if we elect a bunch of socialists who will enact laws to save them from racism and to re-distribute the wealth.
Media Remains Steadfast as Evidence Contradicts
And part of that narrative really was advanced back in 2012 with the Trayvon Martin incident with George Zimmerman and people who were listening to the Peter Schiff Show back in 2012, I really covered this topic pretty extensively. I was one of the earliest defenders of Zimmerman, and the reason I did that is because, as the evidence was coming out, it was completely contradicting the false narrative that was being pushed by the Martin family, by the media. Yet the media remains steadfast in their opinion, even though they had all this evidence that contradicted it.
New Information Brought to Light
Well, the reason that I've resurrected this topic is that now George Zimmerman is in the news again, he has filed a $100 million lawsuit against the Trayvon Martin family, the mom and dad, the lawyers, prosecutors, and the media is again pushing the same false narrative. They are writing all sorts of articles really vilifying Zimmerman all over again: "How dare this guy file this lawsuit! Hasn't he done enough damage? He murdered a child and now he is suing the parents of the victim - all this terrible coverage.

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Phase One Is a Truce, Not a Victory – Ep. 521

Tue, 17 Dec 2019 02:38:45 +0000

U.S. China Trade Deal Rumors are True
The U.S. stock market continues to add to its gains; the Dow Jones is up another 100 points today - a new record high: 28,235.89. We were up better than 200 points at one point in the day, but all the indexes are hitting new 52-week, or record highs. Basically, we continue to bask in the light of the U.S. China Trade Deal that on Friday, we finally got news that the rumors of a trade deal were actually true. There actually is a trade deal because the Chinese have agreed, or admitted that they, too have come to some type of understanding with the United States on a Phase 1 Deal.
Lost in Translation?
Of course, we don't actually have the phase 1 deal yet because nothing is actually official; nothing has been signed. In fact, both sides seem to have different versions over what they have agreed to; so maybe some of the stuff has been "lost in translation". We'll have to see if they can actually put something in writing where both sides will agree.
A Truce in the Trade War
But one thing we know is that whatever is involved in this deal - this is not the resolution. This is not a trade deal; this isn't even the end of the trade war. I would say it's probably a truce. It's not an outright surrender, although that's probably coming eventually, but it's really a truce in the trade war, and a de-escalation of arms. One of the things that the U.S. is supposedly committed to is rolling back the tariffs. Not only calling off new tariffs that were supposed to take effect over the weekend, but eliminating or reducing the tariffs that are already in place. But as far as a comprehensive deal that actually delivers the type of structural change that President Trump promised; nobody thinks that any of that stuff is involved in this deal at all.

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Volcker Dies as Inflation Comes Back to Life – Ep. 520

Thu, 12 Dec 2019 02:09:41 +0000

Fed: Interest Rates on Pause
Today the Federal Reserve had its last official meeting of the year. And, as was widely expected, the Federal Reserve was unanimous in their decision not to cut interest rates. They didn't even consider hiking interest rates, but they decided not to cut them any further for now. So, they're on a pause. The short-term rates are now 1.5%. The target is 1.5% to 1.75%, and the idea is that the Fed is going to remain there for some time. Now, I don't really think it is going to be that long before they cut rates.
Fed Will be back to Rate Cutting Soon
I was on Fox Business earlier today with Liz Claman, and Liz asked me when I thought they were going to cut rates in 2020. I said, I don't know the exact meeting, that they're going to choose to do it. I think a lot of it depends on what's happening with the stock market. As soon as the stock market starts to sell off, if that's what happens, I think that could motivate the Fed for the next rate cut. And maybe, if we get enough bad economic data, the Fed might move for that reason. But whatever the reason is going to be, whatever the excuse they're going to make up, the Fed is not done cutting. I don't think they will pause until 2021 or later, as a lot of people seem to believe. I think the Fed is going to be back in the rate cutting business much sooner than that.
The November deficit: $2o9 Billion
Of course, the quantitative easing business - that's not going to stop. They're going to continue to expand their balance sheet and print money so that they can prop up the bond market and prop up the stock market and prop up the government. So that is going to continue. In fact, we got the official budget deficit released, I guess at about the same time as we got the Fed decision. The November deficit: $2o9 billion. We've not got two months into this quarter and the deficits are running much higher than they were earlier, so even though the economy is supposedly getting better, the deficits are getting bigger.

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Justice for George – Ep. 519

Wed, 11 Dec 2019 20:07:50 +0000

The Trayvon Hoax: Unmasking The Witness Fraud That Divided America
Jeantel's Lies: Prosecution's Star Witness in George Zimmerman Trial Commits Perjury
Special Podcast about a Hoax
I wanted to to take some time and record a special podcast today, really having nothing to do with the markets and the economy and just focus on a topic that I haven't discussed in quite some time. I do believe that the politics surrounding this event are relevant to the economy, and to the markets, although, because really has set in motion political winds that are blowing the country in a direction that is very detrimental to the U.S. economy and to the markets.
Circumstances Surrounding the Death of Trayvon Martin
I think it was 2012 when the Trayvon Martin story really took off in the U.S. If you remember, George Zimmerman is the person killed Trayvon Martin and, initially, everybody was quick to believe the completely ridiculous-sounding story that was being perpetrated by the Martin family and their attorney, as to what happened, and the circumstances surrounding the death of Trayvon Martin.
Who is the Racist?
I was one of the earlier who came out and I was defending George Zimmerman. I took a lot of heat back then, initially, because people were saying, "Hey, it's racist for me to be defending George Zimmerman. But the reality was, I thought it was racist for the people to have believed the complete nonsense - a ridiculous story about what happened. It made a lot more sense to me, just judging by the facts, not looking at the races of the individuals or any of that, just judging by the facts - George Zimmerman's version of events made sense.
Plausible vs. Implausible
The other version made no sense at all. I think it was the racists who were so quick to dismiss George Zimmerman's version, which made sense, was supported by all the evidence and the other witness testimony that came out - rather than simply believing the parents of Trayvon Martin or their lawyer.

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Another Trumped up Jobs Report – Ep. 518

Sat, 07 Dec 2019 01:31:46 +0000

Schiffbooks.com

Letusdissagree.com

Mene.com
Dow Up From Last Week's Trade Deal Woes
The Dow Jones closed out the week with 3 plus days in a row, culminating in today's 337 point jump, back above 28,000 - the Dow settling in at 28,015.06. Remember, when I recorded my podcast on Tuesday, we had just finished 3 consecutive down days in a row, and that's been reversed. The catalyst for the decline, prior to my last podcast was negative news on trade. In particular, the news that Donald Trump, at a press conference, let the cat out of the bag and said, "As far as I'm concerned, it would be better if we waited until after the election to have a trade deal with China. And, of course, the markets were expecting a trade deal any day and all of a sudden Trump is saying, "Hey, I think it's better to wait until after the election." - which is a year from now. Of course, it's not a lock that Trump is going to win a second term. Nonetheless, that was a negative for the market.
Positive Trade News Equals New Dow Highs
Well, what happened, was, on Monday morning, pretty much before they even rang the bell, the White House was already doing damage control and walking that back because all of a sudden I started reading these headlines, "White House Says Trade Talks Going Well". Of course, that means nothing. But you have a lot of traders now who are keying in on these press releases. As soon as they see any positive news, they just buy. As long as positive trade news makes the market go up, whenever they see the positive trade news, they're going to buy.
Will We Ever Have a Fact to Sell On?
The reason that all of this news makes people want to buy stocks is because everybody believes that when we do get a deal, the stock market's going to soar. So everybody wants to be in so they can sell that rally. Of course, I've been saying since the beginning that I think it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", which is why we're probably never going to have a fact to sell.

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Trump Trade Talk Tanks Stocks – Ep. 517

Wed, 04 Dec 2019 03:03:54 +0000

What Phase One?
When the Phase One trade deal was first announced, it was October 11, I think was the date. And before that date, nobody ever heard, "Phase One". It was always, "trade deal, trade deal". There was never any talk of Phase One. Then all of a sudden Trump comes out and says, "We've completed Phase One! The Phase One deal is done. We have concluded negotiations, we have come to a deal. We have this great Phase One deal; it's already done. It's in the bag. We've agreed to it in principle, all we need is the formalities of putting it on paper. We're going to have a big signing ceremony, and it's all going to be done." Oh, and by the way, Trump said, "This is the greatest deal ever for American farmers. They have never had a deal this great; go out and buy some more tractors; I don't even know if we can fill this order, it's so big - it's the biggest order in the history of agriculture!" It's a good thing farmers didn't go out and buy new equipment based on Trump's phony promises.
Sending the Dow Up - Buy the Rumor!
But in any event Marc Faber asked Wilbur Ross, "Do you regret this?" Do you think Trump should not have come out and said this?" And he said, "No, we don't regret it." Of course, why should he regret it? The Dow rose by 1600 points following that comment! That comment sparked all sorts of more comments; the deal is imminent any day, any week or they're going to sign it here... "Buy the rumor, buy the rumor, buy the rumor!" And they pushed the market. The Dow went through 28,000 on all that B.S. So why should Wilbur Ross regret that, when the comments worked?
Bidding the Spoos Higher
I said a long, time ago: "Trump is not talking to the Chinese. He's not negotiating, because if he was, he's the worst negotiator ever. He ought to read, "The Art of the Deal". What he is saying makes no sense, if you're trying to negotiate. The only way Trump's statements make any sense is if they're really designed to boost the stock market. He's not talking to the Chinese; he's talking to the algo's. He's talking to the traders. He's trying to bid the spoos higher.

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Be Thankful for Capitalism – Ep. 516

Wed, 27 Nov 2019 01:39:18 +0000

Recorded November 26, 2019
The Radical Solution Should Be Free Market Capitalism
The problem is, this coming crisis is going to be so bad, it's going to be so much worse than 2008 and you know it's all going to be blamed on capitalism. It's all going to be the left saying "We told you so!" "We cut taxes for the rich, we deregulated. Trump inherited a great economy from Obama and everything he inherited he squandered it with tax cuts for the rich." And things are going to be very tough. People will demand radical solutions. I wish the radical solution could be Free Market Capitalism, because we haven't had that in a long time - but everybody's convinced that that's all we've had. Even the people who supposedly defend capitalism think that it needs a makeover, that it needs to be re-done for the modern era.
Get Government Out and Market Forces Back In
We don't need to re-do capitalism. We just NEED capitalism. What we have to do is get all the socialism out of capitalism. It's giving it a bad name. We need to get government out of all this stuff so that market forces can get back in.
How Old Is Too Young to Vote?
I want to finish up the podcast talking about voting. So I read this article about a town, Brookline, that had approved a measure to lower the voting age down to 16. That's part of the Democrat platform. In addition to doing away with the Electoral College and making D.C. and Puerto Rico states, they want to lower the voting age to 16. I don't blame the Democrats for wanting the 16-year-olds to vote; almost all of them are going to vote Democrat, because, they're only 16 - what do you expect? In fact, the Democrats want 14-year-olds - 10-year-olds, 5-year-olds! The younger the better!
Directly Pandering to Children for Votes
They're not old enough to know any better. It's so much easier to fool these people. But I can just imagine elections where the politicians have to directly pander to children in order to get their votes.
Raise the Voting Age
So I tweeted that this is a step in the wrong direction. We shouldn't be lowering the voting age, we should be increasing the voting age. The response was, "Oh, my God! How could you want to do that?". We've talked about that on this podcast before. The voting age up until the 26th Amendment in the early 7o's was 21. The idea was, if you're old enough to fight for your country you're old enough to vote. No. That makes as much sense as saying that if you're too old to fight, you're too old to vote.

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Maybe Trump Can Close a Phase 1A Trade Deal – Ep. 515

Thu, 21 Nov 2019 01:43:24 +0000

What a Shocker
The phase one trade deal is not going to happen this year. What a shocker. If you remember, when Trump first surprised everybody and talked about a phase 1 deal. If you remember, it was never phases; it was one big comprehensive Deal. In fact early on, and I've said this before, the President scoffed at the idea that we would negotiate in stages. "That wasn't going to work, It's all or nothing, we need to get the big comprehensive deal. " Then all of a sudden he announces this phase 1 deal, and he say it's going to be the greatest deal, it's going to be great for farmers, the Chinese are going to buy 50 billion dollars worth of food; American farmers better buy some more equipment; we don't even know if they can fill this order, it's the biggest order anyone has ever had; it's the greatest achievement in the history of achievements - all this was supposedly a done deal. And then nothing happened.
Phase One China Trade Deal
Of course, Kudlow and other White House people would come out and,"Oh, the phase 1 deal is almost here - but now Reuters is saying it's not going to happen this year. Now, it's probably not going to happen next year either, I mean, maybe, because phase 1 - there's hardly anything involved in it, at least the way it is going to end up being.
How About Phase 1a?
But what I think the President should probably do is forget about phase 1. How about phase 1a? Let's break down phase 1 into a, b and c. Let's at least do phase 1a. First we could tease 1a, and then when we get phase 1a, if we ever get phase 1a well then we've got phase 1b to talk about!
Surrender without Admitting Defeat
Of course, none of this is going to matter, because none of the real stuff is going to be included in any of these phases. Whether it's 1,2,a,b… Whatever it is, this is all a way for the President to try to save face and surrender in the trade war without actually admitting defeat.

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QE4 Sends Dow Above 28,000 – Ep. 514

Sat, 16 Nov 2019 02:05:26 +0000

Markets Making More Milestones
The Dow continued its weekly winning streak with another milestone, closing above 28,000 for the first time: 28,004.89 to be exact. That's a gain of 222.93. Now, I'm sure everybody is getting their "Dow 30,000!" hats ready, because obviously that's not too far off, now from 28,000. But it's not just the Dow that is setting records and crossing milestones. The NASDAQ - another record high today - up 61.81, closing at 8,540.83. That's the first time the NASDAQ has been above 8,500. The S&P also making new highs, up 23.83 - 3120.46 is the close. This is the first time the S&P has been above 3100.
Russell 2000 Sitting Out the Party
The only major index really not enjoying the party, although it was up again today is the Russell 2000, still not quite near an all-time record high. That index is at 1,596. Again, the Russell is the one that most reflects the domestic economy, and it is the domestic economy that is in a lot of trouble. In fact, the Dow rose today, despite more weak economic data that was released during the day.
Industrial Production: Weak
Probably the weakest data point of them all was on industrial production. It was supposed to drop again after falling .4% in September, and they did revise the September drop to -.3% from -.4%. But instead of a .4 drop in October, which was the consensus forecast, we dropped by .8. So twice as large a decline. In fact, I think you have to go back to March of 2009 to see a larger decline than that in industrial production. Capacity Utilization really contracted as well, from 77.5; it went all the way down to 76.7.
Halfway to Recession
And we also got more weak news on business inventories, which were revised lower. And I think that, and industrial production and some other weak data points that had come out caused the Atlanta Fed to reduce its forecast for Q4 GDP all the way down to .3%. It was at 1%, and now it's at .3% which is close to zero. And in fact, it's very likely that we could end up with a negative print for Q4 GDP, which means we're halfway to recession.

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Rich Democrats Secretly Prefer Trump to Warren – Ep. 513

Wed, 13 Nov 2019 00:49:47 +0000

Why is Michael Bloomberg Actively Preparing to Enter the 2020 Presidential Race?
I want to talk a little bit about Michael Bloomberg, entering the primary - and the reason that I think Michael Bloomberg is in. Bloomberg is now a Democrat, but he was a Republican. He served as mayor of New York as a Republican for 2 terms. Then, I think he served a third term as an independent. But he was a Republican and now he's a Democrat. The reality is, he is a very middle of the road guy. He's a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat. But conservative Democrats have not place in the modern Democrat party. I think Bloomberg's motivation to throw his hat in the ring is the diminishing prospects of Joe Biden. Initially, everybody thought, "OK, Joe Biden's the guy." I think Michael Bloomberg was fine with a President Biden because it represented a continuation of the status quo and the status quo has been very good to Michael Bloomberg, do why wouldn't he want to continue that status quo?
Socialists are Frankenstein's Monster Consuming the Democratic Party
But with the rise of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and the increasing likelihood that Warren could actually be the next President, I think that scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg and I think it also scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg's rich friends who are also Democrats. This is an example of Frankenstein and the monster. Baron Von Frankenstein created a monster and then Frankenstein's monster turned on its creator. And I think that's what these limousine liberals have done with the Democrat party. They have created this monster and now the monster is about to consume them.
Rich Democrats Would Rather Re-Elect Trump Than Support Warren or Sanders
I think what wealthy liberals are afraid to admit is, as much as they claim they don't like Donald Trump (and some of them don't like Donald Trump) they dislike Warren even more. A lot of these rich Democrats would rather see Trump re-elected than have Warren or Sanders elected. Now they don't want to come out and admit that, but they don't want to support a socialist. They're not that crazy - but they don't want the rest of the crazies in the Democratic party to know that.

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Destroying Savings Doesn’t Create Jobs – Ep. 512

Wed, 06 Nov 2019 19:23:06 +0000

Better Luck Next Fall
I just got back yesterday from the New Orleans Investment Conference, and I actually came to Connecticut for a few days; I really wanted to experience some of the fall foliage. It's normally at its peak in the beginning of November. But, unfortunately we had a big storm here - a lot of rain, a lot of wind, and it knocked most of the leaves off of the trees. So you know what they say about the best laid plans… hopefully I'll have better luck next fall.
Stock Market High on Trade Rumors
But as the leaves have been falling from the trees, stocks have been going the other direction. Yesterday, all of the major stock market indexes hit new record highs. I think the catalyst, again, were rumors about a potential phase 1 trade deal. Of course, it really is ridiculous now. What rallies the market is not the rumor of an actual trade deal but the rumors of a phony trade deal - a phase 1 deal which really isn't a deal at all. In fact, to the extent that anybody is even celebrating phase 1, what they really celebrating is that the trade war is over. That Donald Trump has basically surrendered without admitting that he has surrendered. In fact a lot of the talk about what the Chinese even need to get the phase 1 deal is for all of the tariffs to be removed. Not just cancelling the future tariffs, but to take away all the tariffs that are already there, which, of course would be a relief for the American consumer, who, contrary to Donald Trump's claim, they're the ones who pay the tax - not the Chinese.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact… Again?
But, basically, what the markets would really be celebrating, is if we went back to where we were before the trade war ever began. Of course, this is not a victory for the president if all the markets could hope for, is a return to the status quo, but again, once we get that deal - if we get that deal, it should be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", especially since the fact is not going to live up to the height of the rumor.

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It’s Bad Monetary Policy Not a Good Economy – Ep. 511

Sat, 02 Nov 2019 00:12:18 +0000

New Highs in the Headlines
We had record high closes today in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite; the Dow Jones not quite a new record but still up better than 300 points: 301.13 to be precise. Of course, all of the headlines, and President Trump - they're going to be claiming that the reason that we had these surging stock prices is because we had a stronger than expected jobs report. We got the October nonfarm payroll that came out this morning and it was better than was expected. You had Larry Kudlow out there talking about how this is a fantastic jobs report. It basically shows how we have this great economy; the greatest economy in the history of America, and that's the reason that the stock market is making record highs, because we have this great economy.
Economic Data was a Mixed Bag
Well, first of all, the jobs report is really not that great. Sure, it was stronger than expected, but that's not why the stock market went up today. We had other economic data that came out that was weaker than expected, so it was an overall mixed bag. In fact, the Atlanta Fed came out today and downwardly revised their forecast for Q4 GDP from 1.5% down to 1.1%, and I think the New York Fed is actually below 1% in its forecast for fourth quarter GDP. So hardly the strongest economy in history, yet the markets and President Trump are certainly celebrating like the economy is strong.
Nonfarm Payroll up from an Upwardly Revised Previous Month
But let me get to the tale of the tape first in the jobs report, because we were looking for a weak number. So the bar was pretty low. The consensus was for 90,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, and one of the reasons was because of the striking GM workers, so they were going to be subtracted from the numbers. So that was already baked into the cake. We ended up getting 128,000 jobs, so nicely above those diminished expectations. But probably more significantly, they went back and upwardly revised the number they told us for the prior month, which was originally reported at +136,000. Now the government claims it was +180,000.

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Powell Admits Inflation Is Headed Much Higher – Ep. 510

Thu, 31 Oct 2019 00:51:41 +0000

The Fed Slashes Interest Rates for 3rd Time
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today. This is the third rate cut of this cycle. We're now down to 1.5%. But of course, what everybody has to remember is a year ago, when the Fed was hiking interest rates, the forecast from the Fed was that they were going to continue to hike rates. They were supposed to have another 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019. And, of course, a year ago, as the Fed was hiking rates, they were still shrinking their balance sheet and they were going to continue to shrink it. They were talking about auto-pilot. They were going to continue to do $50 billion/month of quantitative tightening. And they said this with a straight face. And everybody believed them.
Not a Surprise to Me
Of course, everybody except me and maybe a few other people out there in the financial media. But I was telling anybody who would listen - which was not that many people in the mainstream, but certainly the people who listen to my podcasts, that none of this was going to happen. I said that the Fed was going to have to stop hiking rates, and that they would be cutting rates in 2019, and that not only were they going to stop quantitative tightening, that they were going to have to go back to quantitative easing. And that's exactly where we are.
A Distinction without a Difference
Although, Jerome Powell went out of his way - I think the first thing that he said when he made his prepared remarks - was to reassure everybody that what the Fed was doing now, with its repo program was not quantitative easing. He drew a distinction between what the Fed was doing when it was doing QE and what it is doing now when it is not doing QE. The main distinction had to do with the maturities of the debt that the Fed was buying. He said that when they were doing QE, they were buying longer term government bonds, but that now, they're buying shorter term government bonds and so therefore it's not QE. But this is really a distinction without a difference.

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Government Is the Threat, Not Facebook – Ep. 509

Fri, 25 Oct 2019 01:12:03 +0000

I am Back!
I am back! I know a lot of people have been upset that I haven't been able to do a podcast in almost 2 weeks. The reason I've been absent… I just haven't been feeling well. I've been coughing a lot and and haven't been up for doing a podcast - I'm doing one today, though. I'm still a little bit sick… but I figure it's been long enough, so I have to talk a little bit about what's on my mind.
Dollar Index Trending Lower
First of all, there hasn't been that much activity, I guess, in the markets over this time period. The U.S. dollar has generally been weaker. It has been trending down. It hasn't really broken down yet, but it is going lower. In fact, the dollar index closed today near 97.69. so that is lower than it had been. Remember, a few weeks ago, the dollar index was above 99. So the dollar is trending lower.
Interest Rates Up - Bond Prices Down
Interest rates are actually moving higher. Bond prices are going down. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury now is at 2.26, and I think this is significant because it really shows the problems that are building in the economy because the dollar is weakening and interest rates are rising. That is going to mean higher consumer prices, it's going to mean higher borrowing costs; now of course, the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to artificially suppress interest rates. One of the stories that I've read several times over the last couple of weeks is how the Federal Reserve is having to do more repurchase agreements; having to increase the size of the amount of Treasuries they're buying in the market. I didn't see that in today's balance sheet numbers; the balance sheet was up only about 2 billion over the prior week. But I have a feeling that the number is going to be much, much higher than that when we get it a week from today.

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Trump and Powell Follow the Same Script – Ep. 508

Sat, 12 Oct 2019 00:27:04 +0000

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and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Dow jumps 300 points
U.S. stocks finished out the week on a strong note; in fact we broke a 3-week losing streak. This was the first time in 4 weeks that the major averages finished higher on the week. When I recorded my podcast earlier in the week, the week was off to a rough start. But we had a turnaround. In fact, today the Dow Jones was up 319 points on the day - about a 1.2% gain. The NASDAQ was up even more; 106 points, that's 1.34%. The Russell 2000, even better, up 1.8%. The Dow Transports were the stars of the day. They were up 2.23% - 224 points. Look at stocks like Apple, rising almost 3% to a new all-time record high.
Rumors and News Driving the Market
There was a lot of news driving the market today. Initially, we got rumors of some type of Brexit deal that potentially was imminent. Of course, there have been all sorts of rumors that have never panned out regarding a Brexit deal. But this morning, there was a rumor that really was causing a lot of buying in the European markets and that spilled over into the U.S. futures, which helped the U.S. market. And of course there was a lot of brewing optimism over some kind of impending trade deal with China, although that news didn't come out until very close to the close.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Climbs to 3-Month High in October
But, earlier in the day, we got the Consumer Sentiment number for October, and the markets are already higher by the time we got this release, which comes out at 10am; the market opens at 9:30. The prior month was 93.2, and the consensus was for a slight drop in consumer sentiment to 92. After all, there are a lot of reasons for consumers to be less optimistic now than they were back then. But the consumer… surprise - ended up being more optimistic. The number came out at 96 and that sent the price of stocks much higher.

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Powell Announces the Fed Is Not Doing QE – Ep. 507

Wed, 09 Oct 2019 00:00:13 +0000

Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Another Weak Day in the Equity Market
We had another weak day in the equity market, so the 4th quarter is starting off on a particularly sour note. The Dow, down 314 points today. Technically speaking, closing right near the lows: down 1.2%. NASDAQ had a much worse day, down 132 points - that's 1.67%. Russell 2000, similarly beat up: 1.7%, down 25 points. The Transports really took it on the chin. They down 1.85%. 185 points down on the Transports. The money losing stocks, the recent IPO's continue to get beat up. The real debacle du jour was Smile Direct. That one was down another 15% today: down $2 - it closed at $11.34 right off the new low of $11.20. Remember, this stock came public less than 2 weeks ago and it was $23 a share. The highest it actually traded was $21.10. Now we're down better than 50% from the IPO.
Fed: QE but not QE
But I really don't want to spend a lot of time talking about the markets today. In fact, I only want to talk about one thing, and that's the Fed and the return to Quantitative Easing . I wasn't even going to do a podcast today; Yom Kippur starts in a couple of hours so I was just going to skip it. In fact, I wasn't even going to do one tomorrow - I was probably going to wait until Thursday. But then I was watching this press conference with Jerome Powell where basically the Fed came out and said they were doing QE, except they said they weren't doing QE.
"Increasing Securities Holdings to Maintain an Appropriate Level of Reserves"
There's an old saying: "Never believe something until it's been officially denied. Jerome Powell went out of his way today in his statement and in the Q and A that followed to emphatically say that the Fed is not doing QE. This is an exact quote from Powell: "This is not QE. In no sense is this QE." Except, in every sense it's QE, because it's exactly QE. There's also an old saying," If it walks like a duck, it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it's a duck."

Well, this looks like QE, it smells like QE, it quacks like QE, it walks like it… it is QE! What is the difference between QE and what the Fed is now doing? I wish someone would really ask that question. In his prepared remarks, this is what Powell said:
“As we indicated in our March statement on balance sheet normalization, at some point, we will begin increasing our securities holdings to maintain an appropriate level of reserves,” he said. “That time is now upon us.”
Already? In March they said that "at some point"? Did anybody back then think "some point" meant "NOW"?

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Service Sector to Follow Manufacturing into Recession – Ep.506

Sat, 05 Oct 2019 00:37:48 +0000

Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
The Weakest First Two Days of Any Quarter Since 2008
Before I get into what happened with today's nonfarm payroll number and the 372.68 rally in the Dow that it helped spark, I want to back and talk about what happened on Wednesday and Thursday, which were the 2 days following my Tuesday podcast, from the first day of the 4th quarter of the year. On Wednesday, the market sold off sharply, in fact at one point we were down better than 600 points on the day. We managed to close down just under 500 - 494 points. At that point, the first 2 days of the 4th quarter of 2019 were the weakest first 2 days of any quarter - not just a 4th quarter - but of any quarter going all the way back to 2008, which was the year the market imploded because of the '08 financial crisis.
Weakness in Private Sector Jobs
One of the data points that came out on Wednesday that may have been a contributing factor - but probably not - was the ADP employment number, which is an early look at the official numbers that came out today. This is just the private sector, which is certainly weaker than the government sector, and I'm going to get into that when I discuss today's numbers later in the podcast. But, the estimate was for 152,000 jobs created in the private sector and we only got 135,000. But, not only that, there was a downward revision to the prior month, from 195,000 to 157,000. So, this was additional evidence of economic weakness that was weighing on the market.
IPO's Cancelled Due to Insufficient Investor Demand
Also, again we had the follow over from what I had pointed out on my podcast not only on Tuesday, but on Friday the prior week regarding the weakness in the newly publicly traded companies - money losing companies - the fact that some of these companies had to cancel their IPO's due to insufficient investor demand. All of that was weighing on the market and helped produce that sharp decline.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Down A Lot - Not Just a Little Bit
And when we got into the market on Thursday, the market had opened initially a little bit higher. But then as soon as we got the ISM non-manufacturing number (remember, we had gotten a very weak manufacturing number and was part of the reason we had the big decline earlier in the weak) but now we got the ISM non-manufacturing number and this number was forecast to come in at 55.5. This would have been a reduction in the 56.4 that we had for August. But instead of going down a little bit, the number went down a lot - all the way down to 52.6.

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The Party Is Over. Don’t Be the Last to Leave. – Ep. 505

Wed, 02 Oct 2019 00:40:50 +0000

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First Day of Q4 2019
Today was the first trading day of the 4th quarter of 2019. And if today's action was a harbinger of things to come, it is going to be one difficult quarter for the bulls on Wall Street. In fact, when they rang the opening bell this morning, everybody was happy, the stock market was up, the dollar was up, gold was down again. In fact, gold has had a pretty big correction since my last podcast.
When You Live in Glass White Houses…
Yesterday, gold saw a $25 decline; again, with a stronger dollar and a stronger stock market. For some reason, I think investors were a little bit more optimistic over the last few days after my last podcast Donald Trump talked about - or there were some rumors that he was thinking about maybe de-listing Chinese companies from U.S exchanges, making it illegal or something for Americans to invest in China - which I thought was a very dangerous road for the President to go down. Remember, when you live in glass White Houses, you don't want to throw stones.
Chinese Still Big U.S. Investors
The United States benefits from a lot of direct investment from overseas, particularly China. Chinese invest a lot in U.S. businesses; they're big buyers of U.S real estate, and, of course, they're still big holders of U.S. Treasuries. If the United States says, "Well, Americans can't invest in China." what happens if the Chinese return the favor? I think we have a lot more to lose than they do. I think the following day or maybe over the weekend the President kind of backtracked away from that trial balloon and they said, "No, we're not considering that." So probably that was good news and a relief for the market that that wasn't going to happen.

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Riskiest Assets Leading the Decline – Ep. 504

Wed, 25 Sep 2019 00:11:50 +0000

Check out my podcast, "What it Means to be an American", Episode 265
Earthquake Hits Puerto Rico
Last night, I was lying in bed, I wasn't asleep yet; I just finished watching television; my wife and I were still awake, and next thing we know, the house starts shaking. And it kept on shaking. I couldn't believe I was in an earthquake. This was a decent-sized earthquake - it was over 6.0 on the Richter scale. The earthquake occurred in the ocean, but not too far from Puerto Rico. I think it rattled a lot of the islands here in the Caribbean. I haven't felt an earthquake since I lived in California. To be honest, I never even considered earthquakes here in Puerto Rico. I knew about hurricanes, but I really didn't think we would be hit by an earthquake - and we did. Fortunately, it didn't do any actual damage; in fact, I don't think anything in Puerto Rico was damaged. Of course, the big risk when you get earthquakes in the ocean is tsunamis - but that didn't happen. In the meantime, I've got a tropical storm overhead as I am recording this podcast. Tropical Storm Karen has arrived in Puerto Rico later than expected. It was supposed to come this morning but it didn't get here until this afternoon, although "Karen" doesn't sound particularly menacing, and it's living up to its name. It's really just a little rain, not too much wind; so that's not bad.
Disaster in the Cryptocurrency Markets
The real disaster is not here in Puerto Rico with earthquakes and tropical storms; it's the disaster that is unfolding in the cryptocurrency markets. We are seeing some real carnage - a real bloodbath over there. I think this is just getting started, because we've finally really broken down on the Bitcoin chart, although the biggest declines today are in the alt coins. Bitcoin is down about 13% right now. But this about the high that Bitcoin is been in the last half hour. We're trading up around $8500. We did get as low as $8000; I think we maybe ticked below it briefly. That means from the nearly $14000 high that's a better than 40% drop in the price of Bitcoin from that peak, which, by any definition constitutes a bear market.

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Ep. 503: How Government Inflated the Student Loan Bubble

Sat, 21 Sep 2019 01:15:01 +0000

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These two videos were referenced in today's podcast:
How government programs drive up college tuitions
Is a college degree worth the cost? You decide
Fed Proving Me Right
As I surmised, when I recorded my podcast on Wednesday, it seems pretty clear that the Federal Reserve has already returned to quantitative easing. And that didn't take long, because they just ended QT (quantitative tightening) and they've already begun QE. - Although, the Fed is not going to admit that that's what they're doing. Apart from proving me right, which was one of my forecasts from the very beginning, even before the Fed was talking about ending QE, I said they could never end it before they even started it.
Monetary Roach Motel
I had forecast what the Fed was going to do before they did it. And when they announced quantitative easing, not only did I say it was a mistake, but I said the Fed was checking us into a monetary roach motel from which we could never check out. It was the delusion that we could check out - the Fed was able to convince the markets that it was a temporary policy and that they would only be doing it in an emergency, then they would unwind the policy and shrink their balance sheet and the market believed them.
QE Plus Zero Interest Rates Equals Bigger Problem
I didn't believe them, and I was warning everybody that the Fed was either lying or didn't know what they were talking about or foolish, but the markets bought into this nonsense. So, clearly, if the Fed were going to go back to quantitative easing, they would basically be admitting that the policy was a failure. Because the policy was intended to be temporary, not permanent. If they have to do it again, then it proves that it wasn't temporary. Again, what I said, by doing quantitative easing in conjunction with lowering interest rates to zero, they were simply taking a debt problem and making it much bigger by encouraging even more debt. So once you load up with debt, once you encourage everybody to lever up, then you can't pull the rug out from under them.

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QE by Any Other Name Still Stinks – Ep. 502

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 00:24:59 +0000

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No Surprises from the Fed: Quarter Point Reduction
A lot has actually happened since I recorded my last podcast on Friday. I want to start with what happened today and then work backwards. First of all the big news of the day is the Federal Reserve did exactly what the markets expected and reduced interest rates by a quarter point.
Fed: "Mid-Course Correction"?
This is the second quarter point reduction since the Fed reversed course on monetary policy and started what it once called a 'mid-course correction". The markets didn't really like that, so the Fed kind of walked that back. Although, in the press conference today, Powell was asked about the "mid-course correction" and he kind of dodged it a little bit, but still maintained the pretense that all is well in the economy. But anyway, the Fed delivered the quarter point cut #2. It is now targeting the Fed Funds Rate at between 1.75% and 2%.
Short Term Interest Rates Back Below 2%
So we now have short-term interest rates back below 2% - certainly on the way to zero, maybe even lower, we'll see. Jerome Powell was specifically asked about negative interest rates during the Q&A session following the announcement. He basically said the Fed is not really thinking about negative interest rates, or don't think they're going to be doing negative interest rates, but of course we'll see what happens when we get to zero, and the problems are not solved. The Fed may well do negative interest rates; they may well not want to let that cat out of the bag just yet.
Bullard: "Interest Rates are Too High"
At one point there was some anticipation that the Fed would do 50 basis points but by the time we actually got the announcement this morning, I don't think anybody was really looking for 50 basis points. Although, in the decision to reduce rates, Jim Bullard actually dissented and said that he wanted a 50 basis point rate cut, rather than the 25, but there were 2 other dissenters who didn't want any cuts at all.

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Gold to Decouple from Treasuries – Ep. 501

Sat, 14 Sep 2019 01:37:31 +0000

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Dow 200 Points from Record High
It was pretty quiet today in the equity markets; the Dow Jones managed to inch up 37 points, closing at 27,219 but, you know, how we're less than 200 points away from a new all-time record high in the Dow Jones.
Long on Bonds? Bad Friday 13th!
But the real action today was in the bond market. If you're suspicious on this Friday the 13th, and you were looking for bad luck, that's where you would have found it, if you were long the bond market. Now, I've been talking about this bond market bubble for a long time - it's been inflating for a long time. Whether or not it's actually popped, well, we'll have to wait a little longer to find out. But the carnage in the bond market that I mentioned on my last podcast has continued, with bonds continuing to suffer.
Biggest Single Day Decline on 10-Year Treasury
In fact, today was the biggest single day decline of the entire move. The yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 1.903%. Now, of course, it's still a very, very low yield, but when you consider that a week ago, we were as low as 1.429%. That is a huge increase, percentage-wise, in the yield on the 10-year bond, which means a big drop in prices.
Risk in Bonds if Interest Rates Go Up
I'm not sure the percentage decline; maybe 5 or 6% was the drop, which, in the stock market, that's not a big deal. Stock prices could drip 5% in a week - no big deal. But when the price of a bond drops by 5% in a week, especially a Treasury bond - people think about Treasury bonds as being risk-free - well, there's actually a lot of risk. Especially when you're buying a bond with such a low coupon. There's a lot of risk if interest rates go up, then the value of that bond is going to go down.

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By His Own Definition, Trump’s the Bonehead – Ep. 500

Thu, 12 Sep 2019 02:00:57 +0000

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Millions of Americans were Affected by the Terrorist Attack on 9/11
Today is the 18- year anniversary of the tragic events that surrounded the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon back in 2001. I do not wish to make light of the suffering of the individuals who died tragically, not only the people who lost their lives on the ground, but also the ones aboard the airplane that crashed into a field in Pennsylvania. And, of course, thousands of families were profoundly affected by those events, and they're still affected by those events today.
Loss of Liberty and Freedom
So, what I am about to say is not to minimize their suffering, but there are 300 million or so Americans who were not personally affected by those events, other than the fact that we certainly empathize with our fellow citizens who did have to endure the tragedy on a more personal level. But on a broader level, the biggest loss, historically, from those events is not just the loss of lives and the family members who lost loved ones, but all Americans who lost individual liberty and freedom.
Self-Inflicted Loss
That is the real tragedy, historic tragedy of 9/11. The tremendous loss of individual liberty and freedom. America today is a far less free society than it was prior to those attacks 18 years ago. And that means that the terrorists won. They didn't win based on the damage that they inflicted. They won based on the damage that we inflicted on ourselves. The self-inflicted wounds are much greater on a national scale than the terrorists' direct acts.

And it's not just the 300 million Americans who are alive today. It's all the Americans yet to be born who are going to be born into a society that is far less free than America would have been but for these attacks.

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Trump Puffs up His Presidency like His Steaks – Ep. 499

Sat, 07 Sep 2019 00:43:36 +0000

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The Numbers Really Look Bad in Private Payrolls
Where the numbers really start to get bad is when you look at the private payrolls. There, they were expecting 150,000 private sector jobs created. The private sector jobs are far more important than the government jobs. The private sector jobs are self-sustaining. The tax payers are on the hook for paying the salaries of the government workers and the private sector employees, by and large are actually productive. They're making our lives better.

Manufacturing is Very Weak
They were looking for 150,000 private sector jobs; we got just 96,000 jobs. AND, they revised last month's private payrolls down from 148,000 to 131,000. Manufacturing - very weak: they were looking for 8,000 jobs - instead, we added just 3,000 manufacturing jobs in August and last month, July, they originally said that we created 16,000 manufacturing jobs and we only created 4,000 manufacturing jobs.

34,000 Jobs Created in Category "Government"
Now if you actually look at the breakdown of all the jobs that were created, 34,000 jobs were created in the category of "government". So, of all the different job categories, the one that added the most was government - 34,000 jobs. I think about 20,000 of these people were temporary hires associated with the 2020 Census. Where's the money coming from to pay for these government jobs? It's being borrowed. We're borrowing more money to hire more government workers. Of course, ultimately the taxpayers are on the hook for paying all these salaries, for paying interest on the money borrowed, to pay all these salaries.

Slowest Job Growth in Private Sector Creation in 8 Years
In fact, if you look at the private sector job creation so far in the Trump Presidency, this year, 2019, is on track to have the slowest growth in private sector job creation in 8 years. Trump is out there talking about how this is the greatest economy ever - he's the greatest jobs president ever. We've got the manufacturing sector, the weakest it's been in 10 years, we have the slowest growth in private sector payrolls in 8 years - this is a disaster!

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U.S. Manufacturing Weakest in 10 Years – Ep. 498

Wed, 04 Sep 2019 00:17:16 +0000

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Silver DID Join Gold's Party
Back in mid-July I titled my podcast, "Is Silver Finally Joining Gold's Party?". Well, I think we know the answer to that question. Since I recorded that podcast about a month and a half ago, the price of silver is up another 15%. In fact, it's up better than 30% since the end of May. Silver having a sterling performance today. As I am recording this podcast, it's about an hour after the close of the U.S. market, we're up almost 90 cents an ounce. We're at 19.22.
Gold Still Meeting Resistance at $1,550
Gold, not quite having as strong a day as silver; gold isn't making a new high. It's up $19.50 on the day: $1548. Still having some problems with the $1550 resistance area. GLD, the exchange-traded ETF did make a new high for this move, but the spot market did not register a new high - but I think that's just a matter of days - if not hours - before that happens.
Silver is Leading the Charge
Because silver is leading the charge. It's leading gold higher; pretty much the way I said. A week ago, I titled my podcast, "Hi Ho Silver, Away" and that prompted a number of people to comment that somehow I had just capped the silver rally by getting too optimistic on silver. Well, that was a week ago. We just hit $18.00, we're now over $19.00, and I said on that podcast, I thought we would have a pretty quick move up to about $20, and once we take out $20, I think this thing could really, really take off.
Overdue Move Down in the Dollar
What is going to be the catalyst, I think, for a much bigger move up in both gold and silver is going to be the long overdue move down in the dollar. Paradoxically, when the dollar starts its decline, it is even possible that gold and silver take a bit of a breather, or maybe pull back a little bit, in terms of dollars, but pull back even more in terms of other currencies. Remember, as strong as gold has been in dollars, it has been even stronger in other currencies.

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Andrew Yang Debunked: Free Stuff Is Not Freedom – Ep. 497

Mon, 02 Sep 2019 21:12:37 +0000

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Let's Debunk Andy Yang's Platform
I decided to take a little time out on my Labor Day to record a podcast debunking Democratic Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang. I've been getting a lot of emails about Yang; especially since he did the Joe Rogan Podcast about six months ago. He said a lot of things that certain people find appealing, so I've been asked to comment on him and I've seen other notes about Andy Yang and I wanted to talk about him because, number one, he is rising in the polls. He's now in sixth place among the Democratic candidates; he's polling at about 3% ant that puts him ahead of established politicians like Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, so he's gaining in popularity and I think the trend is going to continue.
Yang Rising in the Polls
The next Democratic Debate is coming up in about a week and a half and they're no longer going to have two debates; they've narrowed it down to just ten candidates and Andy Yang is one of those 10. I think as there are fewer candidates in the race, Yang is going to get more and more attention from the media and I think he is going to rise in the polls.
Attractive Among a Bunch of Democratic Socialists
To me, he is like the Bernie Sanders of this campaign. Sanders, and "Feeling the Bern"… he was popular in the 2016 campaign, mainly because he was the only alternative to Hillary Clinton, who was extremely unpopular. So, given that matchup and there was only two choices, it made it very easy for Sanders to gain a lot of support. He's having a much harder time galvanizing that support this time because people have a lot of alternatives. If you want a Democratic Socialist, there's a bunch of them to choose from.
Clearly a Smart Guy… But
But a guy like like Andy Yang, a younger guy, and clearly a smart guy. I had not watched his appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience until just yesterday. I decided to watch it, and that's the motivation for doing this podcast. Once I heard him talk about his ideas, I spent a lot of time on his website looking at a lot of things he didn't discuss with Joe Rogan. One thing is certainly clear to me: he's a smart guy. Clearly, if you gave an IQ test to all of the Democratic candidates, Yang would win.

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The Coming Financial Hurricane Will Be a Cat 5 – Ep. 496

Sat, 31 Aug 2019 01:39:06 +0000

Recorded August 30, 2019

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Waiting for Hurricane Dorian
When I recorded my last podcast on Tuesday evening, we were getting ready for Hurricane Dorian, which was supposed to pass by the south coast 0f Puerto Rico on Wednesday. But when I woke up on Wednesday morning, the meteorologists had the hurricane pretty much coming right over my house. It had changed course and had moved north, and it was supposed to come right through Puerto Rico, rather than just go by it to the South. But then the hurricane kept moving north, and it ended up missing Puerto Rico completely. We were here, the kids were home from school, everybody was battened down waiting for what at that time was maybe a strong tropical storm… maybe a category 1 hurricane.
Puerto Rico Spared from Hurricane
But we didn't even get a rain drop. Not even a gust of wind, as the hurricane just missed Puerto Rico to the north. I think it did go by the U.S. and British Virgin Islands - didn't really do much damage, there, because the store hadn't intensified but Puerto Rico's gain will be Florida's loss. The storm did not go over Puerto Rico, and initially it was supposed to go over the Dominican Republic, and the mountains there, it's a much bigger island, and it would have really beaten up the storm, but because the storm was really uninterrupted, and it has been over water the entire time, now it looks like it will be a category 4 when it hits somewhere along the Florida coast. It looks like a pretty powerful storm.
Broken Window Theory
You're going to hear, as is always the case, economists are going to be saying, "Oh, well, this is good for GDP." Whenever there's a hurricane, people say, "Oh, look! We have to spend all this money repairing and rebuilding everything that was destroyed." But that is not good for the economy. If you haven't heard the "Broken Window Theory", Henry Hazlitt does a very good job of explaining that and refuting the Keynesian idea that disasters are somehow good for the economy.

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Hi Ho Silver, Away – Ep. 495

Wed, 28 Aug 2019 01:19:32 +0000

Recorded August 27, 2019
Real Significant Action in the Market: Gold and Silver
The real significant action today was in the gold & silver market. I wanted to mention today that on Friday, the U.S . dollar sold and then today we're back at 98. So the dollar is not weakening against other foreign currencies. In fact, most people are still talking about the strong dollar. Even Donald Trump talks about the fact that we have a strong dollar. Now, Trump is bothered by the fact that we have a strong dollar, and he wishes it wasn't as strong, but he keeps talking about the strong dollar and everybody acknowledges that the dollar is strong.
Silver is a Great Buy
The problem is: the dollar is not strong. The price of gold going up shows you that the dollar is not strong. Gold was up $16 an ounce: we closed at $1542.50. This is the highest close in over 6 years for the price of gold; but the real star today was silver. Silver was up 53 cents - $18.17. It's been a while now since silver was above $18. If you have been listening to my podcasts, you know that I have been pounding the table on silver. I've been telling people that silver is the key; it is really cheap relative to gold. In fact, it was better than 90:1. You needed more than 90 ounces of silver to buy a single ounce of gold. That was an all-time record low for the price of silver. Now we're at 85. The ratio has moved back in silver's favor, but you still need 85 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. That is historically extremely cheap. In fact, the only time it was cheaper was when it was 90. So it's still a great buy.
Cash in some Gold to buy Silver
I have been telling people, even at SchiffGold - we have actually been calling clients who we know own gold and have them sell us back their gold and buy silver, because you can get so much silver for your gold right now that it is a real bargain. Silver has never been this cheap, and so if you have gold and don't have any silver, it makes sense to buy some silver with your gold. Even after today's move, I would still say that that trade makes sense.

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Trump Loses It on Twitter – Ep. 494

Sat, 24 Aug 2019 01:16:11 +0000

Recorded August 23, 2019
A Bad Day for Everybody Except the Democratic Candidates
If you are one of the Democrats running for President, today was a pretty good day for you. But it was a bad day for just about everybody else; I guess other than gold investors, which I clearly am, but I'm also an American and I hate to see bad things happening to my country, even though I know bad things are going to happen. I would just rather be among those who profit from these events than suffer additional monetary loss in addition to the losses you endure as an American citizen as a result of the ensuing chaos and loss of liberties.
President Trump Lost It on Twitter
Today, President Trump really kind of lost it. On Twitter. Real time. Maybe what Trump needs is somebody to be his official Twitter filter. Maybe there should be a policy where when Trump wants to tweet, there is like a one or two hour cooling off period where the tweets get reviewed, maybe edited, maybe someone gets to talk a little sense into him before he tweets. But today's tweet storm probably really indicates that the White House, I think, is in disarray. I think the President realizes that the air is coming out of this big, fat, ugly bubble. That he's not going to get out of Dodge.
CBO Revised Up Budget Deficit Estimate Again
He's trying to pretend that the economy is in great shape, yet we're hearing rumors that we need a payroll tax cut, we need stimulus for the economy. Why would you stimulate an economy that's doing great? If we have the greatest economy in the history of America, why does it need even more fiscal stimulus? After all, we already have the most fiscal stimulus ever. We have the largest budget deficits in history. In fact the Congressional Budget Office this week came out and revised up again their estimates for the deficit.

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Media Flips Narrative as Recession Risk Rises – Ep. 493

Wed, 21 Aug 2019 00:39:54 +0000

Recorded August 20, 2019
The Day the Yield Curve Inverted
I am finally back in the United States - well, in Puerto Rico, technically is part of the United States, it's a territory - after my extended trip through Italy. I recorded that one podcast, and on the very next day, we had probably the most volatile day in memory. What happened that morning was that we got some weak economic data that came out of China and then we got some more weak economic data that came out of Germany and that immediately caused yields to drop around the world. In the United States, for the first time, the yields on the 10-year treasury dipped below the Fed funds rate. So the entire yield curve, out to 10 years was inverted. In fact, the 30 year yield hit a new low for this whole "quantitative easing - zero percent interest rate" cycle. The 10-year did not quite do that yet, but the 30-year did, and as soon as this happened, as soon as the curve inverted, I think it triggered a lot of sell programs in the stock market.
The Media was Waiting to Flip the Narrative
Stocks got clobbered, in fact, by the end of the day the Dow Jones was down 800 points; one of the worst point drops in Dow Jones history - not one of the worst percentage drops, but 800 points is a lot of points. And of course, as soon as this happened, the media began to cover the possibility of a recession to a much greater degree than they had in the past. If you remember, I said that this was coming. I said that I thought that maybe the media was waiting to flip the narrative on Trump, which is exactly what they've done.
Fake News?
All of a sudden, a media which was pretty much buying the booming economy narrative now is questioning whether the economy is actually strong. In fact, now you have Donald Trump accusing the media of being involved in some kind of conspiracy to make the economy look bad. In other words, a lot of the data that's been coming out indicating that the economy is weak, that it is slowing, that this is just Fake News.

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Gold Traders Still Don’t Understand the Rally – Ep. 492

Wed, 14 Aug 2019 00:43:23 +0000

Catch Peter on Simon Black's podcast, "Sovereign Man" recorded yesterday in Italy.
https://www.sovereignman.com/category/podcast/
Catch Me on Sovereign Man
There's been a lot of action over the last couple of days in the U.S. stock market. In fact, the market just closed a few minutes ago, as I am recording. It is now after 10pm in the evening here in Italy. If you don't already know by now, I am out here in Italy with my son, and that's why I'm not recording as many podcasts as I normally would. Although, I did record a podcast with my friend Simon Black, of Sovereign Man. I'm actually staying with Simon and some other guests of his for a few days in Umbria. We leave tomorrow for Florence, then Venice and then home. So I recorded a podcast with Simon yesterday. We talked for about an hour. So if you want more material, just go ahead and have a listen to that. You'll get over another hour discussion.
Check out my Debate with Art Laffer on YouTube
Also, I put up the YouTube video this morning that I meant to put up a couple of weeks ago. I uploaded
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The U.S. Economy Was Stronger Without Economic Advisors – Ep. 491

Tue, 06 Aug 2019 21:35:29 +0000

Recorded August 6, 2019
Trade War: New Tariffs and Accusation of Currency Manipulation
Yesterday was the worst day of the year for the Dow Jones. At one point, we were down about 950-odd points. I think we closed down under 800; 767 points. But it was a follow-though from the weakness that we had on Friday and the news, too, that we had on Friday about the escalation of the trade war, where Donald Trump announced the imposition of new tariffs on China.
Normal Movements in a Currency Market
But what happened overnight in China was the yuan went below 7:1 against the dollar. This is the first time it has been that low since China started to allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar. It had been appreciating… now 7 is not that much weaker than it was when Donald Trump became President. The Chinese yuan is only down 2-3% since Trump took office. That's not a whole lot, when it comes to a currency. Everybody is up in arms; now Trump is upset that the Chinese are weakening their currency, when the currency has not weakened very much. In fact, the U.S. dollar is down about 2 or 3% against the Swiss franc since Trump became President. So what's the big deal? Switzerland isn't accusing the United States of manipulating its currency, just because the currency dropped a few percent. These are normal movements in a currency market.
Dow Trading Higher after China Blinks?
But the minute the yuan dropped below 7:1, everybody was saying, "Currency War!" and "Who knows how much further the yuan is going to drop?" And so that sparked a lot of selling in the Chinese market. And so the U.S. market went down… I think the futures went down maybe about 300 Dow points or so before we opened. But then, as soon as we opened, we sold off hard and we did have a little bit of a rally into the close, so we closed off the lows, but as soon as the U.S. stock market closed, the futures sold off again. I think at one point last night, the Dow was off another 4-500 points before reversing on the Chinese yuan having a fix, I think, that was a little bit higher than the markets were worried about, so that caused the traders to breathe a little sigh of relief that the yuan didn't fall again. So that sparked a rally.

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Jobs Hype Won’t Work Much Longer – Ep. 490

Sat, 03 Aug 2019 01:09:09 +0000

Recorded August 2, 2019
July NonFarm Payroll Report: Great? Not so Great
This morning we got the release of the July NonFarm payroll report, and the general consensus among the analysts seem to be that it was s strong report, a solid report. I saw Larry Kudlow this morning on Fox Business talking about another "solid performance" in job creation. But once again, once you look beneath the surface, and you don't have to look too deep, this is not a good report.
The Bar Was Set Pretty Low
First of all, the bar was set pretty low. The consensus was 151,000 jobs. That's not a lot of jobs, so it's not that hard to beat it, and we did. We got 164,000 jobs. But the reason we beat it was because we created more government jobs than the market expected. For private payrolls, the consensus was 160,000 jobs and we only created 148,000 jobs. So we created 12,000 fewer private sector jobs than had been expected and we made up the difference by creating government jobs, whether they are for the Federal government or state government.
Public Sector Jobs vs Private Sector Jobs
But there's a very big difference between private sector jobs and public sector jobs, in that the taxpayer isn't on the hook to pay the salaries of the private sector workers. They're working in companies that are generating profits, so the salaries are paid for by the profits that the businesses generate.
The Government Does Not Generate Profits
The government doesn't generate any profit. It just has to suck up tax revenue; we have to pay for these. So it's not a good thing that government gets more bloated and hires more people. Especially since a lot of government bureaucrats tend to complicate things. They make everybody less efficient. If we're hiring more regulators to slow down the economy and get in everybody's way, that's not a good thing. I'd rather have a lean, mean government. Of course, that's not going to happen.

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Fed Trumped by Tariff Card – Ep. 489

Fri, 02 Aug 2019 00:09:03 +0000

Recorded August 1, 2019
Trifecta Podcasts this Week
I hadn't planned on recording a podcast today; I did one yesterday and I figured I'd wait until Friday, get the … payroll numbers and finish up the week with a Friday podcast. But so much action in the markets today, that I just couldn't resist. I knew there would be a lot of people who would be excited to get a podcast today, so we're going to have a trifecta - we're going to have three days in a row of podcasts.
Nobody on CNBC saw the Rate Cut Coming… But I Did
Before I even get into a lot of the market action today, I want to talk a little bit about what I heard on CNBC this morning. They're still talking about the rate cut that we got yesterday and the host said, "Six months ago, nobody could have possible predicted… nobody would have believed that we'd be here today and the Fed would be cutting rates. And nobody could have possibly believed that the Fed would be ending the quantitative tightening program, because it's now over!" So, according to CNBC, nobody could have possibly predicted this, yet it happened anyway. Wait a minute: what about me? I predicted it. I said it was going to happen. I didn't say it on CNBC because they won't let me on, but I said it on my podcast. I even said it on their competitor network, Fox Business. Maybe if they watched Fox Business they would've known about this.
I Predicted, Live, That December Hike Would the Last Hike
So, really, what they meant is nobody on CNBC saw it coming. None of their anchors, none of their regular guests saw an end to quantitative tightening. None of them saw the rate cut. But I did. Not only did I predict that the Fed would cut rates, I predicted, live, that the December hike was the last hike. and that the very next move by the Fed would be a cut. And that is exactly what they did.

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Rate Cut First Step on the Road to Zero – Ep. 488

Thu, 01 Aug 2019 01:02:05 +0000

I Bet an Ounce of Gold that Fed would Cut Rates
Today I officially won an ounce of gold! I am referencing a bet that I made back in January of this year. During a panel discussion, I said that I though that the Fed was more likely to cut rates in 2019, than hike them. I was the only person on the panel who believed that. Everybody else thought that the Fed would be raising rates, which pretty much was the conventional wisdom in early January.
Check out My Forecasts in December and January on YouTube
So today, the Fed cut rates, which is what I have been saying they would do. In fact, not only did I put up a small YouTube video of that bet, as well as a video of the entire panel on my YouTube channel. But I also cut a minute or so segment from my interview on the Monday in December 2018 the week the Fed raised rates, 2 days later on a Wednesday. That was the final hike where the Fed went from 2% to 2.25%, to 2.25% to 2.5%.
Fed Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points
I was interviewed by Liz Claman- by the way I will be on Liz Claman's show tomorrow - they've renamed the show it is the Claman Countdown. But when I was on Liz' show back in December I made the forecast then: If the Fed raised rates in December that week, which, I thought they would, (everybody believed they would - they wouldn't want to disappoint the markets) I said that it would be the last hike, and that the very next move that the Fed would make would be to cut rates. And that is exactly what they did today. They cut rates by 25 basis points.
December's Rate Hike Erased
So they basically took away the last rate hike and the rate is now where it was prior to the December rate hike. Now, I believe that cutting rates was a mistake. I think the Fed should have already raised rates by more than they have. Not because the U.S. economy is in great shape, because it's in lousy shape. It is a gigantic bubble.

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Peter Schiff Challenge: It’s Inflation, NOT Deflation

Tue, 30 Jul 2019 16:33:53 +0000

Two Camps: Inflation vs Deflation
I did the first live stream a couple of weeks ago; that was on bitcoin. I got a lot of feedback on that one and a lot of people were coming up with potential topics for the next one. I think the most common request was for inflation or deflation: which one is it going to be? Because there are a lot of people out there who see the world similar to the way I do, as far as the problems that are confronting the U.S. economy in particular but the global economy, but everybody seems to fall into two camps as to how it is all going to go down; whether it is deflation that is coming - we should prepare for that, or whether it is inflation that's coming and you should prepare for that. Now I am an inflationist. I am in that camp. Other people in that camp may be, like Jim Rickards or Jimmy Rogers or Marc Faber - there are a number of people who would be in the inflation camp. Deflation would be guys like Robert Prechter, Harry Dent, there are a number of guys that are looking for deflation.
Defining Terms
Now before I really get into it, I want to talk a little bit about the terms, so we know what we're talking about. Let's define the terms. What is inflation? What is deflation? The actual definition of inflation, the actual meaning of the word, is an expansion of the money supply.
What does "Inflate" Really Mean?
That's what inflation is; it's not about prices. If you think of the word, "inflate" - what does inflate mean? It means to expand. You inflate a balloon; when you inflate a balloon, it expands. Prices don't expand - they go up, they go down; they don't expand. What expands? Money supply. When the government creates money, the money supply expands, like a balloon. It blows up. So that's what inflation is, it is an expansion of the money supply.
What is Deflation?
Deflation is the opposite; it is a contraction of the money supply. Now when you inflate the money supply-you create more money - you have more money bidding up prices. So inflation will result in prices going up. But prices going up is not the inflation they are the consequence of inflation.

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Borrowing Binge Masks Worst Economy Ever – Ep. 487

Sat, 27 Jul 2019 01:26:17 +0000

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The Topic: It’s Inflation, NOT Deflation
What is Really Happening to Corporate Profits?
Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rose to all-time record highs today; nominal highs, of course. The Dow Jones didn't quite make it to a new high, it did close better than 50 points higher - 27,192.45, but probably the most interesting thing about the record high, is what's actually happening to corporate profits. I'm talking about operating profits, which are profits before you subtract interest and taxes. I'm looking at some new statistics that came out today. There were some revisions that came out from the government; some of them on the GDP, which I will get to a bit later in the podcast.
Corporate Operating Profits Moved Sideways Since 2014
Just looking at corporate operating profits, it turns out that operating profits actually peaked in the third quarter of 2014. That is while Obama was still President, a few years before Trump was President. So corporate profits - operating profits peaked in Q3 of 2014. And they basically have been going sideways ever since, although they have been dipping recently. If you take a look at the last quarter, operating profits are now the lowest they've been since 2011.
Profits Have Gone up - but Not Operating Profits
Now, the Dow Jones finished 2011 at about 12,000 - 12,200, I think was the end print. Well, we've more than doubled since then, but operating profits haven't gone anywhere. How are you doubling stock values when the profits are staying the same? Now, of course it's not the profits - profits have gone up - but not operating profits. But operating profits are really more important if you want to look at what's going on in the companies in these averages. Operating profits is how much money the companies make from operating their businesses.
Tax Cuts Boosted the Stock Market
So, actual profits have risen even though operating profits have not. Why is that? One: we got the big tax cuts. Corporate tax rates went way down so that enabled after tax earnings to rise. So that provided a boost to the U.S. stock market. But these corporate tax cuts are temporary. They are not permanent; corporate taxes are going to be raised. Especially if I'm right about Trump being a 1-termer; the Democrat who succeeds Trump is going to raise corporate taxes.

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Trump Buries Tea Party He Once Praised – Ep. 486

Wed, 24 Jul 2019 01:02:37 +0000

Participate in my next YouTube Live Challenge next Monday, July 29, 9pm EDT
The Topic: It's Inflation, NOT Deflation
Not to Praise the Tea Party but to Bury It
President Trump originally won the Republican nomination by appealing largely to what used to be the Tea Party. A lot of Tea Party Republicans ended up embracing Donald Trump; in fact I think a lot of the support that might have otherwise gone to Rand Paul (a Tea Party favorite who went to Washington in 2010 as part of the Tea Party movement); a lot of his thunder was stolen by Trump, who appealed a lot to Tea Party Republicans.
Even Tea Party Corpse Seems to Approve of its Demise
When Trump went to Washington, he wasn't exactly praising the Tea Party, but few people expected that he went to Washington to bury it, either. But that's just exactly what he just did by agreeing to this budget deal with the Democrats. The Tea Party is dead! President Trump just put the final nail into the coffin, lowered it in the ground and covered it in dirt. The irony is, nobody seems happier about this than the corpse itself! The Tea Party Republicans are not up in arms against the Commander-in-Chief. Everybody still loves Donald Trump.
Where is Rick Santelli?
Even the father of the Tea Party, Rick Santelli, (he is credited for getting it all going) where's Rick? Where are his tears, where's the eulogy as his child is being buried? Again, no criticism, everybody thinks Trump is great… As I said, I was back at Freedom Fest, which they should have just re-named "Trump Fest".
Continuation of Policies Once Criticized by Candidate Trump
Donald Trump is simply continuing all of the policies that he once criticized in order to become President. When he was running for the Republican nomination, he was extremely critical of the big deficits under Obama. He was even critical of the big deficits under Bush. That was one of the things I liked about Trump. He was criticizing big spenders of both parties. He was supposed to be different. He was rising above politics. He was going to drain the swamp. And draining the swamp meant putting an end to the deficits.

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Expect More Inflation but Don’t Expect the Fed to Fight It – Ep. 485

Sat, 20 Jul 2019 00:08:03 +0000

A Podcast from Freedom Fest in Las Vegas
I'm still here in Last Vegas at Freedom Fest, but I wanted to take some time out to come up to my hotel room here and record a short podcast - otherwise I'd have to wait until Tuesday. There's been a lot of stuff that's happened over the last few days, so I definitely wanted to record something; the quality might not be up to snuff. But I figured I'd talk a little bit about what's been going on in the market.
The Action Was in the Metals Markets
Really, the stock markets - not much action. All the major markets finished the day and the week lower; bond prices a bit higher. The real action, though, was in the metals markets. You wouldn't really know it to look at the price of gold, which was only up maybe about a dollar or two on the week, although we did have a big $20 rise yesterday, followed by a $20 drop today. I'll get into why that happened in a minute.
Strength in Silver
But the real action was in silver, which finished the week better than up 90 cents, I believe. So, a very strong week for silver - even on days when gold was down, silver was up. In fact, even this morning, silver was up for a while while gold was down. I titled my last podcast, "Is Silver Finally Joining Gold’s Party?" and, as of now, it really looks like the answer to that question is yes. We've see a lot of strength in silver.
Clarida Shakes Markets with Rate Cut Comments
In fact, we had the biggest two-day gain, going back several years, in the price of silver. The big jump that we has yesterday really was set into motion by some Fed comments, although that probably was just a catalyst; it probably would have moved up anyway. But in particular, we had Clarida came out and he said that the Fed should not wait for the data to turn before cutting rates. Meaning that, "We should cut rates, anyway, even if we don't get negative data; even if it doesn't look like the economy is going into recession, we should just preemptively cut rates."

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Is Silver Finally Joining Gold’s Party? – Ep. 484

Wed, 17 Jul 2019 00:49:03 +0000

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93 Ounces of Silver for One Ounce of Gold
I think the most interesting development today in the market was in the metals market. I've been talking on the podcast for some time about the spread between gold and silver, and the fact that silver has never been this cheap, in terms of gold. The spread got to almost 93:1, where you can buy 93 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold - which is incredibly cheap.
Some Silver Stocks up 10% or More on the Day
It's a great time to be buying silver, and I've really been pounding the table on people buying silver. I recommended it again last night last night on my live YouTube event, I recommended it to my Managed Account clients on our last webinar, encouraging people to contact their brokers and maybe buy more silver stocks. In fact we had silver stocks today; some stocks up 10% or more on the day. Very, very significant jump up in the price of silver stocks, even thought the price of silver itself did not have that big a move. It was only up 19 cents.
Silver Up as Price of Gold Fell
But the significance of the move is that gold was down $8. So not only did silver have a relatively large move, although not large enough to normally cause silver stock to rise by 10%, but what was significant about it was that it rose as the price of gold was falling. This could signal - and it was looking to me technically that we saw some indications of this last week (I added to my own silver stocks last week - but it looked to me like this trend was about to change. We're still above 90:1. We're close to getting back to 90:1 even. But this is still an incredibly good opportunity to buy physical silver; to buy silver oriented stocks. But what I think this is showing me is that the bull market in gold is getting ready to kick into a higher gear.

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Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin Challenge Live Stream

Tue, 16 Jul 2019 13:54:43 +0000

First Live YouTube Event
Welcome to the Peter Schiff Bitcoin Challenge. First of all, I have to make a confession. I really was not familiar with YouTube live streaming and live chatting, and so the way I thought about this in my head; I thought that people were going to be able to talk. Like a Skype group conversation. People would be able to actually engage me and make their case in their own voice, and to be able to have a little back and forth.
Post a Cogent Argument
I didn't realize that the way I had to do this was with a chat, where people who want to make a point have to do it by chat. So I'm going to try my best. Hopefully, this format can work. There are so many chats going by, it is hard to keep track of them. But I want to see if people can put together a cogent, concise argument. Think of it like you're composing a tweet. I can try to address each point, and try to take in what you're trying to tell me as to why I'm wrong about Bitcoin, and why I should actually be embracing it as digital gold.
Don't Forget to Subscribe to My Podcasts
So, what I'm going to try to do is to see the best points that are being made on this chat, then read it out loud, and then address it, make a statement and the person who authored that particular text listens to what I have to say, if they want to do a follow up or something, they can do that, and hopefully I will see that follow up. I'm doing this chat in my home studio in Connecticut. I'm in the studio where I normally do my video blogs, so if you're new to this channel, you should subscribe it. Two or three times a week a do these video blogs (podcasts) where I talk about all sorts of things that are relevant to people who buy Bitcoin.

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This Time Rate Cuts Will Backfire – Ep. 483

Fri, 12 Jul 2019 01:42:07 +0000

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DJIA Record High Today
Dow Jones set a record high today, closing above 27,000 for the first time ever. We added 227.88 points on the day. We closed at 27,088.08. The record high, 27,088.45 set just before the close. You know, we added to yesterday's gains, the S&P 500 was also up again - not taking out the record that was set yesterday, but we did, for the second day in a row managed to trade above the 3000 mark, although we have yet to close above it - ever so close today: 2999.91. But a very small percentage gain for the S&P, not even a quarter of 1%.
Russell 2000 Down .5%
Broader market was weaker. The NASDAQ was actually down slightly - 6.5 points. The weakest index being the Russell 2000, down almost a half of a percent. It was lower during the day. Again, the Russell 2000 is the index that is most sensitive to the domestic economy. I've pointed out on this podcast many times that it is the index that is the weakest, and is not even close to making a new high. And I don't believe it will. I think the broader market is going to roll over, and the small caps are going to lead the way.
Traders Weren't Paying Attention to Bond Market
In fact, if the traders were paying attention to what was going on in the bond market, we probably would have seen a bigger selloff today. I think we still have some euphoria left over from the two-day "Dove Fest" where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was up on Capitol Hill basically green-lighting the July rate cut, which is coming up in a couple of weeks. Remember, when we got that better than expected nonfarm payroll report, the odds of a rate cut in July went down from about 100% to maybe 91%, and the odds really came down for the probability of a 50 basis points cut. So it was pretty much 91%, I think, 25 basis points, and that was it.
Odds of Rate Cut in July Back up to 100%
But after Powell released his prepared remarks, before he even made it up to Capitol Hill - just merely when the markets got a look at his prepared testimony, the odds of a rate cut in July immediately went back up to 100%, and, in fact the odds of a 50 basis point cut went back up to 20%.

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Moral Hazard and Unintended Consequences – Ep. 482

Wed, 10 Jul 2019 01:01:47 +0000

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More Market News after Powell's Congressional Testimony
The markets have been pretty quiet over the last couple of days, so I really don't feel like spending a lot of time on today's podcast talking about the markets. I probably will have more to say, maybe on Thursday when I'll probably do another podcast because Jerome Powell is making his way up to Capitol Hill tomorrow and Thursday to testify before the House and the Senate. My guess is that some of his comments may move the markets; the currency markets, the gold market, maybe even the stock market. I'll probably have more market-oriented commentary to give you on Thursday.
Laffer Curve for Dummies
But there are a few things on my mind, which is why I wanted to take some time today and record this podcast. One has to do with Art Laffer. Of course, Art Laffer gained fame back in the Reagan era. He came up with the "Laffer Curve" that he supposedly sketched out on a napkin one day and showed it to Ronald Reagan. The Laffer Curve basically says that when you reduce taxes, or lower marginal tax rates, you actually end up collecting higher tax revenues because you incentivize people to work more, they earn more, and then they pay more taxes even if they are paying taxes at a lower rate. Obviously, the Laffer Curve bends at some point, because if taxes are zero, you collect no revenue and if taxes are 100%, you also collect no revenue. Because if you're going to tax somebody 100% of their income, they're not going to work at all. Nobody is a complete idiot - they're not going to work for nothing. So at a 100% tax rate and a 0% percent tax rate the government collects exactly zero taxes. So somewhere along that curve is an optimal point where you would have the tax rate that generates the most amount of revenue.

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Holiday Markets Overreact to Jobs Report – Ep. 481

Sat, 06 Jul 2019 00:26:30 +0000

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Markets Up on Low Volume
A lot of people on Wall Street probably took today off; after all yesterday was the Fourth of July, the market was closed. On Wednesday they closed the markets early in preparation for the July Fourth holiday. So when you have a Friday where the markets are open, but you have a Thursday when they're closed… most people probably left for the Hamptons on Wednesday afternoon, and so were not in their offices or down at the stock market when we released the nonfarm payroll numbers today.
ADP Disappointing Number Teed Up Low Expectations
The June number, highly anticipated, as always, especially with a rate cut on deck now by the Fed. Most of the people who were probably handicapping the jobs number thought that it would probably come out weaker than expected. After all, most of the data we've been getting has been weaker than expected. In particular, the jobs numbers, including the ADP report that came out on Wednesday, on that holiday-shortened trading session. We got a disappointing number. The consensus for private-sector employment for ADP was 140,000, and we ended up with 102,000. So we had a significant miss in the ADP numbers.
Back-to-Back Declines in Small Business Jobs
But also, look at the employment components of some of the other numbers that also came out weak on Wednesday, like the ISM non-manufacturing index. It printed 55.1 versus an estimate of 55.8. The employment component of that index was notably weak, especially for small businesses which had major reduction in jobs, no only in this month but the previous month. In fact, I read a tweet by Dave Rosenberg who pointed out that he hasn't seen back-to-back monthly declines like this since February/March of 2008. That was the year of the Financial Crisis. He basically said that small business job growth is the weakest it's been in over 9 years.
Bigger Decline in Factory Orders
Now, small business job growth, that is the heart of the job market. That's where most of the jobs are created. So, if you look at a lot of the other data that has been coming out that might reflect on employment, you might have thought that there might have been a weak number. Look at the factory orders number that also came out on Wednesday. They were looking for a drop of .5% in factory orders, and instead, the orders dropped by .7%. So a bigger decline.

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Monday’s Gold Drop Flushed out Weak Longs – Ep. 480

Wed, 03 Jul 2019 03:05:10 +0000

Recorded July 2, 2019

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Markets Worried About Slowing Domestic Economy
If you just looked at the U.S. stock market averages, you would conclude that not much happened today, but you would be wrong. Even though the S&P and the Dow and the NASDAQ were only up about a quarter of a percent, or maybe .3% - pretty small days. Although, as has been typical recently the Russell 2000 was down .6% and the Dow Transports down .8%. So the market, contrary to all the hoopla that you hear about how great the U.S. economy is, the markets are more worried about the slowing domestic economy than they are the global economy.
Strongest Economy in U.S. History?
In fact, the Cheerleader-In-Chief, for how strong the U.S. economy is, of course, is Donald Trump. He is constantly up there tweeting about how strong the U.S economy is. In fact, today, he proclaims that we currently have the strongest U.S. economy in history. Now, I remember, when he used to tweet about h0w strong the economy was, that we had the strongest economy in history, he would say, "Oh it's probably the strongest economy in history…" I mean he would qualify it a little bit. But now, no more qualifiers. He is emphatic. Without a doubt, this is the strongest economy is U.S. history.
Fake News
Of course, I don't like hypocrites. One of the things that Trump does, is he calls out the media for spreading fake news. The problem, is, he spreads fake news, too. When he is talking about how we have the strongest economy ever, that's fake news! So you can't live in a glass house and then throw stones and that's what the President does.
More Weak Numbers
In fact, if you look at the economic data that came out this week, the data was weak! The ISM manufacturing number and the PMI number were weak . In fact they weren't as weak as they were expecting, but they were expecting weak numbers and we got weak numbers. Just not quite as weak. Although, the construction spending number that came out yesterday was considerably weaker than had been expected. Now, the Atlanta Fed is still at 1.54% .

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Political Reality Could Sink Stocks in 2nd Half – Ep. 479

Sat, 29 Jun 2019 01:06:50 +0000

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Recorded June 28, 2019
Dow Jones Had Best June Since 1938
U.S. stocks finished a down week on an up note, but the gains were not that large today. But of course, they were very big for the month of June. In fact, the Dow Jones just had its best June since 1938. That was during the Great Depression. S&P, not as big a record; you only have to go back to 1955 to find a June where the S&P did better than June 2019. So these are big moves up. Percentage-wise, though, I think it's about 7%, approximately, maybe a little bit less.
Stock Market Actually Lost Value In Terms of Gold
Now the price of gold was up 8% during the month of June. In other words, while the price of stocks went up in terms of paper money - dollars - in terms of real money - gold - stocks actually lost value during the month. Now, the first half of the year also comes to an end today, as does the second quarter, and this is the best first half of the year in 22 years. the S&P was up about 17.5% or so, the Dow about 14%. I think I'm counting dividends - I'm just talking about the appreciation, so the total return would be a little better when you throw in the meager dividends that you can collect on U.S. stocks. NASDAQ was up about 20% - not much in the way of dividends there. Russell 2000 was up about 9%. This is on the first half of the year.
Stocks Recovering From Worst December Since Great Depression
I'm sure you're going to read a lot of tweets from Donald Trump about how great the stock market is in 2019; how great the month of June is and why we should thank him for this spectacular performance in the stock market. But the only reason that the market has done so well this year is because it got destroyed in the 4th quarter of last year. Remember, we had the worst December since the Great Depression, as well.

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The Fed Has Served Government Well, Not America – Ep. 478

Wed, 26 Jun 2019 00:55:18 +0000

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Gold: Six-Year High Overnight
Overnight the price of gold rose to a six-year high. We almost got to $1440. I think the high I saw was maybe $1438 - 39… we were up about $19 at the high point. Then it became a very volatile session overnight into the wee hours of the morning. But I think by the time we got into the New York time zone, gold was still up about $10-$12-$13 dollars on the day and it was up about that amount when the U.S. stock market opened for trading.
Before Today, Gold Stocks Up 20%
Gold stocks initially had a small rally, but nothing big. Then they spent most of the day on the downside. Obviously the gold traders are still very cautious. As I have been saying, this gold breakout, even though we did see pretty big moves in gold stocks, I think the GDX, not counting today's losses, (the GDX was down about 2% today) but not counting today, we were up 20% in the month of June. So, still, a very big rise. But really not nearly as big a rise as it should be, considering, I think, the significance of this gold breakout. Except, of course, if people don't believe it. If they're cautious about it, so they're reluctant to bid up the price of gold stocks.
Investors Still Reluctant on Gold and Silver - Why?
The same thing with silver. In fact, silver never had much of a rally today, and it actually settled down, I think 8 cents on the day, even though gold ended up finishing up $4 - well off the highs. But it didn't close negative. At one point during New York trading, the price of gold was negative on the day, but it managed to bounce back for the close. Silver, I think, ended at 15.33. The gold/silver ratio that I spoke about on the last podcast now, I think is close to 93:1. Again, I think investors are reluctant to buy up silver because they are expecting the price of gold to roll over.

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Gold Breaks out but Investors Remain Cautious – Ep. 477

Sat, 22 Jun 2019 00:39:17 +0000

Recorded June 21, 2019

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S&P Record High: Why?
U.S. stock market averages finished an up week on a down note. In fact, the S&P 500, before closing negative on the day made a new all-time record high. The S&P is the only major index that did make a new record high this week, in fact Donald Trump tweeted about the record high in the S&P twice yesterday. As soon as the market gapped open at a record high, Donald Trump tweeted out a reminder that the S&P opened at a record high, and then when it closed at a record high, he sent out a second tweet to remind everybody that the stock market closed at a record high.
Fed's Lower Rates Behind Stock Market Highs
The idea is that he's taking credit for it. The stock market is doing so well because Donald Trump is President, and if anybody else were President, the market would be collapsing. That's the impression that Donald Trump is trying to convey. But, of course, the reality is the opposite. The reason the market made a new high is because investors are relieved that the Fed is going to cut interest rates. So, it's lower interest rates that is behind the record high in the S&P - not anything Donald Trump has done.
Low Interest Rates Needed to Bail out Economy
Now, Donald Trump is saying, "Hey I've been telling the Fed to cut rates!". So maybe he can claim credit for the fact that the Fed is cutting rates because he beat them up so much, but that's really not what he is trying to claim. He's trying to claim that the rising stock market is indicative of how great the economy is under his presidency. But, it's not because the economy is great that the Fed is cutting rates, it's because it's lousy!
Heading for Recession
The Fed is cutting rates because the economy is headed for recession. So if that's the only reason the stock market is going up, that the economy is so bad that the Federal Reserve has to abort their rate-tightening campaign, and they have to come to an emergency rescue mission, they have to try to bail out the economy with rate cuts, is that really something that Donald Trump should be bragging about?

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Fed Readies Markets for July Rate Cut – Ep. 476

Thu, 20 Jun 2019 01:04:17 +0000

Visit me at the Benzinga Trading Conference, NYC tomorrow
Fed Tweaking Language to Officially Adopt Easing Bias
Keeping with its tradition of having a tendency to act incrementally, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee today announced that it was leaving interest rates unchanged - which was the consensus. There was an 80% probability that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged. The other 20% was that they would cut rates. So there was a zero percent probability that the Fed would increase rates. But before delivering an official rate cut, what the Fed wanted to do was to prepare the markets in advance and take one step in that direction, which was to tweak its language to officially adopt a bias toward easing, which is exactly what the Fed did.
Fed to Sustain "Expansion"
The Fed basically acknowledged that the economic data had been weakening and that they wanted to do what was appropriate, or that they were willing to do what was appropriate to sustain the expansion. Now, they didn't come right out and say that the economy is headed for a recession; even though that is exactly what is happening. They said they wanted to see more data before they moved. But after they failed to cut rates, the probability for a rate cut in July, which is the very next time the Fed meets, rose to 100%. So they took the 20% probability for the cut in June, since we didn't get it, the markets added that to the 80% probability of a cut in July.
Looking Toward Negative Data
Which means the markets are convinced that whatever data the Fed sees between now and the July meeting in going to be bad. It's not going to be good (positive) data. Of course, it IS going to be bad data. The data has been bad. The economy has been weakening. We've been seeing a series of weakening economic data. The economy is not just slowing down, it is headed to a recession. That is something that the Fed will never admit.

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Trump Is Keynes on Steroids – Ep. 475

Sat, 15 Jun 2019 02:47:58 +0000

Recorded June 14, 2019
Gold: Up Today
When I recorded my podcast last Friday, I speculated that the price of gold might gap up the following Monday above $1350/oz., but that didn't happen because over the weekend Donald Trump managed to tweet out a face-saving way in which to not impose the tariffs on Mexican products that may have gone into effect on Monday. The markets breathed a sigh of relief. So, instead of gapping up. the price of gold went the opposite direction and gapped down.
Fourteen Month High
This morning, we got the gap. It was on the last day of the week, not the first day of the week, but gold gapped higher on the day. It was actually trading as high as $1356 or $1357 earlier this morning. That was a 52-week high in the price of gold. In fact, it was a 14-month high. We were actually up even before we got any economic data. I think the high of the day might have been before the U.S stock market opened, when we were up about $15 or so.
The Key is Above $1350
What happened was, at 8:30, prior to the opening of the U.S. market, we got some economic data that was a bit stronger than expected. And that stronger than expected data rained on the gold rally parade, sending the price of gold down on the day. It only closed down about a buck or so, but we did not hold above $1350. Now the key level is not really $1350 - it's a little bit higher up, because the price of gold has been above $1350 twice before, I think, in the last six years, not counting today. But it wasn't able to hold. That's the key. We need to see the price of gold get higher. Maybe close above $1375.
Gold the Favorite Trade for the Next 12-24 Months
There's a lot of noise. That's where all the resistance has been coming in - between $1350 and $1375. But nonetheless, I think, as I said in the last podcast, the more times we knock on this resistance door the more likely it is that the door is going to open. In fact, the buyers continue to come in to the price of gold. I was listening to an interview with Paul Tudor Jones. He was asked what his favorite trade was for the next 12-24 months, and his answer was gold. And a lot of smart people are now coming out and saying that, "Yeah, gold's going higher. Gold's got everything going for it, and they want to be involved. And of course I think if the price of gold does what I think it is going to do, and what some other smart people think it's going to do, well then the price of gold stocks are going to do even better.

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Trump Defuses His Own Bomb – Ep. 474

Tue, 11 Jun 2019 01:10:34 +0000

Recorded June 10, 2019
Tariffs Off, Gold Gapped Down
On Friday's podcast, I speculated that potentially we could see a gap up in the price of gold, gapping above the $1350 resistance level that has capped every gold rally for the past 6 years. But gold actually gapped in the other direction. It gapped down about $13 and it was down all day - never filled that gap.
Catalyst for Sell-off
The catalyst for the gold sell-off was Donald Trump calling off the tariffs that were supposed to go into effect today. The five percent across the board tariffs on Mexico. That announcement came out on Friday, pretty much right after I finished recording my podcast, we got the news. So I immediately knew that that forecast probably was not going to come to fruition, or that speculation, potentially. Because I knew the markets would react positively to this news. After all, everybody was rightly worried about the negative impacts that those tariffs would have on the U.S. economy, in particular. They weren't as worried about Mexico, at least when it comes to the gold market, but they were worried about how it would impact the U.S. economy.
One Less Thing for the Fed to Worry About
And of course, one of the reasons (of course there are many) that the Fed is talking about cutting rates is because of all the uncertainty that is being created because of tariffs. If there aren't going to be as many tariffs, if the Mexico tariffs aren't going to actually happen, well then that's one less thing to worry about, and maybe that's one less reason for the Fed to cut rates.
Mexican Tariffs are a Sideshow
Of course, cutting rates is part of the reason that people have been buying gold; the reason we had that big 8-day rally, which came to an end today. What's been powering the gold rally is the talk of Fed rate cuts. Now I don't think today's sell-off is going to be significant. It's just one more time we knocked on that resistance door and it didn't open, but it is ultimately going to open. Because at the end of the day, the Mexican tariffs are a sideshow. The main event is that the U.S economy is going into recession anyway, and the rate cuts are coming.

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Game over for the Fed – Ep. 473

Sat, 08 Jun 2019 01:12:07 +0000

Recorded June 7, 2019
Dow Finished the Week with a 4.7% Gain
The Dow Jones soared 263 points today, although at one point the index was up better than 350 points. But it managed to finish the week with a 4.7% gain. That is the best showing for the Dow Jones Industrials in 6 months and in fact we snapped a six-week losing streak this week. All of the major averages had positive weeks. The NASDAQ - the best gainer on the day; up 1.7% - not quite as strong on the week because it took a shellacking on Monday with the FANG stocks leading the way down - but up about 3.7% on the week. Similar gains for the Russell 2000, the Dow Transports, the S&P 500 not quite as strong as the Dow - I think up about 4.2% on the week.
What was the Catalyst?
But why? What was the catalyst for this big move up in the U.S. stock market? Was it better than expected earnings? Not really. Some companies beat estimates. Take a look at some of these recent IPO's like Zoom Video. Zoom Video was up 18% today because it earned 3 cents a share instead of the one cent that Wall Street was expecting. Now, 3 cents per share is not a lot of earnings when you're a $94 stock, but that's where the stock is.
Beyond Meat to Infinity and Beyond
Even more ridiculous is Beyond Meat, which is beyond sanity as it's going to infinity and beyond. Now, Beyond Meat was up almost 40% today, $138.65. The high was $149.46. This stock is already more than tripled its IPO price - or quadrupled, I can't really tell. Now they're still not making money at Beyond Meat, so they still haven't moved beyond losses. The company lost $6.6 million on the quarter; that's 95 cents per share. But it is an improvement, because a year ago, in the same period, they lost 98 cents a share. If you adjust it, if you back out a lot of other stuff, like stock-based compensation and things that nobody likes to count, then they only lost 14 cents per share, which was better than the 15 cents a share loss that Wall Street was expecting. So clearly that's worth an extra 40% on the price of the stock. I forget what this thing is trading; 100+ times revenue. It is a crazy multiple, but at least the stock has a viable product.

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ZIRP and QE Are Now Conventional Monetary Policy – Ep. 472

Thu, 06 Jun 2019 01:07:25 +0000

Recorded June 5, 2019
Volatility Led by NASDAQ
There's been a lot of volatility in the stock market since I recorded my last podcast on Friday. In fact, on Monday, the tech stocks in particular got beaten up. The NASDAQ dropped by better than 150 points, led lower by the so-called FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google). Google and Facebook, the biggest drop - I think it was something like 6-8%. Part of that had to do with the Justice Department investigating Google.
Enlisting the Power of Government in the Marketplace
Of course, I don't think that we should be involved at all in anti-trust. Almost all of the companies that have been broken up or that had been put through the ringer by the U.S. government achieved whatever type of market dominance they had based on just being good competitors, delivering the best quality at the lowest price. And government just came in and really what they were doing was advocating for competitors that were having a problem competing. It wasn't because the consumer was getting ripped off; in general the consumer was being rewarded with low prices and high quality. But companies that couldn't compete, since they couldn't win in the marketplace, enlisted the power of government to work for them. So government, really is not about preventing monopolies - they create monopolies. The government comes into a market and legally gives a company a monopoly and uses the power of government to make sure that nobody competes. This is all a bunch of nonsense that we need government to "keep the markets free".
Moving Away from Risk
But, in general, if you look at what was happening to the markets on Monday, there was a huge movement from growth stocks, momentum stocks, speculative stocks, riskier stocks, to defensive stocks - value oriented stocks. The Dow Jones was actually positive on the day - it wasn't up a lot, but it was up, even though you had a 150 point drop in the NASDAQ. I think that is an important key, because this is something that needs to happen and it is long overdue, that investors start to get more defensive in anticipation of a weakening economy.
Dividend-Paying Stocks More Attractive
You have all of these high-multiple stocks, their P/E's are going to have to come down to earth. And, of course, people are looking at a slowing economy, they are looking at lower interest rates - they believe they are going to get lower interest rates, so it makes sense that dividend-paying stocks would be more attractive in a falling-rate environment.

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Ep. 471: Mexico Won’t Pay for the Wall or the Tariffs

Sat, 01 Jun 2019 01:21:13 +0000

Sell in May and Go Away
U.S. stocks closed out the week and the month of May with heavy losses; the DJIA down 354.84 points. Pretty much going out near the low of the day. That's a drop of 1.4%. NASDAQ also getting killed - 114.57 down - that was a 1.5% decline on the day. The Russell 2000 continues to melt down. That index falling 20 points - down 1.35% on the day. But the biggest losses continue to be in the Dow Jones Transports. That index was down almost 2% - 1.9% - 188.4 points. This is the worst May for U.S stocks since 2010. The Dow is down about 7% just in the month of May. Remember, "Sell in May and go away"? Well it hasn't worked in a while, but this was a great time to sell May first!
Russell 2000 and Dow Transports Weakest Indexes
Again, I told everybody that I thought the bear market rally was over based on the Fed not being as dovish as the markets expected, and it's been down hill from there. If you look at the Russell 2000 and the Transports, these two indexes did not make new highs. Remember the Dow and the S&P, the NASDAQ made new highs. Now, they're all down considerably - the Dow is 8% off those highs now. But the Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports did not make new highs, and now they are the weakest index and now the Russell 2000 is down just under 16% from its peak, and the Transports - over 16%. So both of those indexes are about 4% points away from being officially back in bear market territory, which means 20% from the highs. We could easily be there next week, on these stocks.
Debacle du Jour: Gap
Now the other indexes have further to go, I mean the NASDAQ is only down about 9% from its peak. So 1% away from what Wall Street would officially call a "correction". The retailers continue to also be hammered. The Debacle du Jour was Gap, which gapped down by about 15% on the day on weaker than expected sales. The stock managed to rally most of the day, so it only closed down a little over 9%. But still, it closed better than 47% below its 52-week high.
Domestically Focused Stocks Weakest
But, when you have the Russell 2000 and the Transports the weakest part of the market, those are the most domestically focused stocks. Those are the stocks that are the weakest. So everybody who keeps talking about how great the U.S. economy is, if they look at the market, the market is telling you a different story.

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Bond Buyers Correct About Recession But Bet Won’t Pay Off – Ep. 470

Thu, 30 May 2019 01:05:44 +0000

Recorded May 29, 2019
The End of the Bear Market Rally
Back on May 1, when I did my podcast, I officially called for the end of the bear market rally that so many people had confused for a new bull market, and the impetus for that call was the Fed coming out and not living up to Wall Street's expectations for just how dovish the Fed was. Remember, the market was starting to factor in rate cuts, not just an end to the tightening cycle, but the beginning of the next easing cycle. And Jerome Powell basically threw cold water on that by talking about how low inflation was transitory, and how he expected it to go back up, and all of a sudden the markets were starting to think that the Fed wasn't going to cut rates and the market went down a bit.
The Fed Giveth and the Fed Taketh Away
I thought that given that the rally was built based on the Fed, that what the Fed giveth by being more dovish than the markets expected the Fed had finally taken away by being more hawkish. Even though I didn't believe that the Fed was as hawkish as the markets believed, I believe the Fed is far more dovish than the markets believe. But once Powell dashed those hopes, that was enough, I thought, to take the wind out of the sail of the rally.
Throwing Down the Gauntlet on Trade
And then, of course, Donald Trump, himself, pulled the rug out from under the market when, the following weekend, he basically threw down the gauntlet on the trade war; tweeted out that he was going to be imposing 25% tariffs across the board on Americans who want to buy any Chinese products. And then the markets really started to fall. Although, I said at the time, that if the markets really perceived how great the threat was, they would have been down quite a bit more. But we now have two back-to-back better than 200-point declines in the Dow.

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Will Tesla Crash the Corporate Bond Market? – Ep. 469

Thu, 23 May 2019 01:44:23 +0000

Recorded May 22, 2019
Low Inflation is Transitory
Today we got the release of the most recent minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, and I guess it was a bit of a mixed bag for people who were looking for whether the Fed was going to be more hawkish or more dovish with respect to its next move on interest rates. One thing that was revealed in the minutes that the governors still maintain, they are still saying that they feel that this "low inflation" that we've been experiencing is transitory. What that means is that it's temporary and the low inflation is going to go back up toward their 2% target. This is supposedly a hawkish statement, because if the Fed were worried that low inflation was going to persist, then they would do something about it to save us from the horrors of not having the cost of living rise at a fast enough clip.
When It Comes to Inflation Fighting the Fed Is All Bark and No Bite
But, as far as I'm concerned, none of this even matters, because a) they are right, inflation is transitory, and b) it's not even as low as they think because the CPI is not accurate. So inflation is already higher than what the official numbers reveal. But even if it is transitory, which it is, and even if the numbers go north of 2%, which they will, the Fed is going to do nothing. People still don't get it, that when it comes to inflation fighting the Fed is all bark and no bite.
"For Some Time" Means Forever
But then if you look at what the Fed said in the same minutes with regard to their "patience" with respect to the next rate hike, remember, the Fed went from pretty much auto pilot - they were raising rates, they were tightening - to being "patient", and being "appropriate", and now, if you read what they said, they said that it is going to be appropriate to remain patient "for some time". Now what does that mean - "for some time"? Basically, it means forever. What the Fed is basically saying by saying that it is appropriate to be patient for some time, meaning, "you don't have to worry about any rate hikes".

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Ep. 468: Consumer Confidence Begins with a Con

Sat, 18 May 2019 01:16:23 +0000

Don't miss the movie, "The Housing Bubble" premiering June 26, 2019
Back in Puerto Rico
I am finally back in Puerto Rico, after having spent 8 long days in Las Vegas for both the SALT conference and The Las Vegas Money Show. I really do enjoy coming back to Puerto Rico, I miss it quite a bit while I'm away. A lot of people who are thinking about making the move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the tax benefits that exist here… One of the reasons that people are reluctant to come down here is that they don't want to uproot their family and move to a place where they really don't know anybody, they leave their friends, they leave their family members… I'll tell you, for me, personally, probably the best thing about being here, other than the tax breaks and the beautiful weather are the people that you meet when you come down here. It is an incredible group of people that have moved here. I think we're building a great community of quasi-ex-pats here in Puerto Rico. So, if you're worried about not having enough friends and not having enough to do, that's the least of your worries. So I certainly would recommend that more people would consider making the move to Puerto Rico.
Visit Me at the Freedom Fest in Las Vegas July 17-20
But I am also looking forward to going back up to Connecticut, I'm going to be spending most of the summer there. We'll be leaving the weekend of Memorial Day. By the way, if you didn't have an opportunity to come to any of the events in Vegas, I will be back in Vegas again in mid-July for the Freedom Fest.
Appearing at the Premiere of "The Housing Bubble"
I will also be in New York City on June 26 to attend the premier of the movie, "The Housing Bubble" on June 26. You can buy tickets at the website letusdisagree.com. The movie is a documentary about the 2008 housing bubble, but it features a lot of people who were predicting or warning about the bubble before it popped, and warning about the financial crisis. Of course, I am one of those people who was issuing those warnings, but I'm not the only one. It's a very good documentary; I'll be there. I think there's going to be a Q&A period with me and some of the other people who were featured in the movie at the event. So it would be great, if you're in the New York area this summer, June 26, go on letusdisagree.com and buy yourself some tickets.

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Of Course You Know, This Means War – Ep. 467

Tue, 14 May 2019 01:07:16 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 – 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/…/4532d84bf…/peter-schiff/
As Noted on My Last Podcast…
As I suspected on Friday's podcast, the 400-point reversal that saw the Dow move from down 300 points + to up 100 points on the close was in fact, reversed today, and the Dow Jones actually closed below the Friday low, which is a huge negative, technically for the index. The Dow was down 617 points; that's about 2.4 %. But the real carnage was in the NASDAQ. That was down 3.4%. The Russell 2000 also down better than 3% - 3.2%, showing that domestically focused stocks are actually getting hit harder than the multi-nationals.
Lyft and Uber Still Sinking
More trouble again for the recent IPO's, in particular, the ride-hailing companies Lyft - down again, another 5.8% off the lows of the day - the lowest $47.17, closed at $48.15. The Uber disaster continues. Uber was down almost 11% today. At one point, it was down 12% - the low was $36.08. We closed at 37.10. Remember we came public Friday. This is only the second trading day. Uber came public at $45, and now it is at $37.10, and as I said again on last week's podcast, these types of stocks are going to get particularly hit hard if the market carnage continues, which I think it will.
China: No Deal
I think the bear market rally is over - I've been saying that, "Long live the bear market". The Bear market rally is dead. We are going a lot lower. The catalyst today was also something that I was pointing out on my podcast last week, and that was the fact that we are not going to get a deal with China. I've been saying for a long time, that even if we got a deal, it would be, "buy the rumor, sell the fact". But I also said that it was becoming obvious that Trump had so over-promised the "great deal" that it was almost impossible to have a deal without disappointing the markets. So, I think Trump made a calculated decision that no deal is better than a deal that disappoints, especially since he had already goosed the market up to new highs. So even if we sold off, Trump could say, "Well, this is some short-term pain; it's necessary for the long-term gain." and it may, in fact be the catalyst that causes the Fed to cut interest rates and launch QE, which is what Trump wants.

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The Fed Created an Uber Problem – Ep. 466

Fri, 10 May 2019 23:38:46 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 – 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Recorded May 10, 2018
Why Escalate Trade War If Negotiations Are Going so Great?
The U.S. stock markets finished off the worst week of the year with a gain despite the fact that, as expected, the trade talks between the United States and China broke down today, and no deal. The new tariffs went into effect at 12:01am this morning. Despite the fact that Trump is now retaliating by escalating the trade war, he still claims that the discussions are going well, that they are making a lot of progress. None of that makes any sense. If things are going well, and you're making progress, you don't escalate the war. That makes no sense. All that is going to do is piss off the Chinese. So, if everything is going so well, you would not want to do that.
Maybe Trump Would Rather Have the Tariffs
This shows that things are breaking down, that there is some desperation and Trump feels he has to turn up the pressure in order to try to force the Chinese into a deal. Although, I am not even sure Trump believes a deal is actually better than the tariffs. First of all, I don't believe that Trump is going to be able to deliver the type of substantive, game-changing great deal that he has been promising. So, from that perspective, if Trump actually believes that tariffs are good for the U.S. economy because it means we're going to get some kind of windfall, that the Chinese are going to be sending us all this money, well then maybe he prefers the tariffs to a deal that does not live up to the hype.
Tariffs Are Simply Another Tax on the American People
But, of course, Trump is wrong if that's what he believes. The tariffs simply represent taxes on the American consumer. They are just one type of tax. You can have a sales tax, you can have an income tax, you can have a tariff. All the taxes are paid by American people. It doesn't matter what you call them or how you want to levy them, that's where the money is coming from. So, if you think lower taxes are good, then you can't think tariffs are good. Unless you're going to offset the tariffs by cutting taxes someplace else and say, "We're going to fund government through tariffs as opposed to funding government through another source. But the tariffs in and of themselves do not deliver a benefit to Americans. They simply make products that are subject to the tariffs more expensive to buy. So Americans have a choice: pay the higher price or don't buy the product.

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Did Trump Tank Stocks to Force Rate Cut? – Ep. 465

Wed, 08 May 2019 01:12:58 +0000

See Peter at the SALT Conference at the Bellagio, Las Vegas May 7-10, 2019
https://www.salt.org/bio-schiff-peter
Market Volatility
I just arrived in Las Vegas, where I will be spending the next 8 days - I actually have 2 conferences heres; I have the SALT Conference (SkyBridge Alternative Asset Conference) that really kicks off tomorrow, though there is a welcome reception tonight, and then I do the Las Vegas Money Show, which kicks off on Monday. So I'm here for quite some time. I haven't even unpacked my bags, though. I wanted to record a short podcast to comment mainly on the market volatility.
Buyers Bought Dip on Monday
The stock market was way down on Monday morning. Of course, the selloff started in the futures market on Sunday night, where the Dow futures was down over 500 points at one time. But by the time we opened, the Dow was only off about 450 and the dip buyers came in, and they bought the market all day, and we closed near the highs. It couldn't close positive - I think the Dow was only off about 70 points. So the buyers came in as they are trained to do. They bought the dip.
Trump's Tariff Tweets
What caused the initial selloff was a pair of tweets; the two tweets were related. A lot of times, when Donald Trump sends out a tweet, he has a lot of stuff in there. or he will send out 2 tweets to make the same message. And, what happened is he basically said that he was going to impose more tariffs on China. He tweeted that, by this Friday, he is going to "up" the 10% tariffs to 25%. So Americans who are now being taxed 10% for buying some Chinese goods, if they buy those Chinese goods starting on Friday, they will have to pay a 25% tariff on those goods.
New Additional 25% Tariffs
He also tweeted that he was going to apply the 25% tariff to goods that right now aren't paying any tariffs. So there are still a lot of Chinese goods that Americans could buy without being subject to tariffs, but now Trump is saying that now that is going to go away. At the end of this week, he's going to hit those goods. So Americans buying pretty much any Chinese products are going to have to pay a 25% tariff.
Additional Tax on American Consumers
Now, of course, Donald Trump thinks these tariffs are great, because he believes the Chinese pay them, which, of course, is not true. The tariffs are added on here in the United States, so it is the American consumers who pay those tariffs. Now, it can hurt China because if the higher prices cause fewer Americans to buy Chinese goods because they don't want to pay the higher price, then China doesn't sell its goods in America.

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Job Headlines Still Mask the Real Story – Ep. 464

Sat, 04 May 2019 01:39:29 +0000

Recorded May 3, 2019

See Peter at the SALT Conference at the Bellagio, Las Vegas May 7-10, 2019
https://www.salt.org/bio-schiff-peter
Jobs Surge in April, Unemployment Rate Falls
Today is Jobs Friday; the first Friday of the month, that we get the nonfarm payroll number. I don't know if the markets anticipated more or Donald Trump, because of course he's ready to send out a tweet when we get a better than expected number. That's what happened today; we got another number that was better than expected. Certainly the headline number - they were looking for an increase of 180,00 jobs, which would have been a bit of a reduction over last month's 196,000 jobs - which was revised down slightly to 189,000. We ended up getting 263,000 jobs, so another number with a 2-handle - a much bigger number than had been anticipated, and the unemployment number, also surprisingly dropped. Two tenths, from 3.8% to 3.6%. Hispanic unemployment actually hit an all-time record low. I expected Donald Trump to tweet about that, because obviously he's being accused of being a racist. Clearly, if he can show that, "Well, look, Hispanic unemployment is at an all-time record low, how are my policies racist, if we have a record low in unemployment among Hispanics?" He did tweet about the jobs numbers and the low unemployment numbers.
Which Numbers are Fraudulent Now?
But again, I reminded Trump (not that he actually ever reads my tweets, he gets so many) that when he brags about how low the unemployment rate is, the official rate, I always remind him, "Wait a minute, you are the person who accused these numbers of being fraudulent, fakes, phonies, a scam - Donald Trump as a candidate was very critical of Barack Obama's phony recovery mainly because Obama was hiding behind (what Trump said were) fraudulent statistics. Well, these are the same statistics that Donald Trump is embracing - the same statistics that he criticized. So, I guess the President no longer about all of the discouraged workers who are no longer looking for work, he doesn't care about all the people who are working part time, but would prefer to work full time, but they can't find a full time job, so they settle for a part time jobs. These are the people who are not included in that 3.6% unemployment rate. The President cared about those people when he was a candidate.

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The Fed Is Far More Dovish Than It Admits – Ep. 463

Thu, 02 May 2019 00:25:16 +0000

Recorded May 1, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Market Looking for Validation of Expectations
Today was the conclusion of the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, and that is exactly what the market was expecting. Nobody expected the Fed to hike, and nobody expected the Fed to cut. But apparently, a lot of people expected the Fed to be more dovish with respect to its outlook for a potential future rate cut. Remember, the Fed Fund futures are showing that the next move is likely to be a cut and that maybe the Fed will cut by 50 basis points by the end of the year, so the markets are probably looking for some reassurance from the Fed that the market's expectations of lower interest rates are valid, and that's not what they got today from Chairman Powell.

Inflation Below 2%. Who Cares?
'In fact, he was actually asked, point blank, by CNBC's Steve Liesman - it was one of the first questions asked, maybe it was the first - whether or not the Federal Reserve was going to do something about persistently low inflation, because, after all, the official inflation rate is slightly below their target. I mean, if the target is 2%, we're at 1.7%, 1.8%… Who cares? But somehow this is an emergency, this is a disaster - we're not hitting our 2% target, even though we're pretty damn close. But, is the Fed going to do something about it? And instead of saying, "Oh, yes, we're going to do something about it, we're going to cut rates to make sure that we have 2% inflation", what Powell said was, "Well, yes, we acknowledge that inflation is lower than we would like and its lower than our goal, but we're not worried, because we expect it to be transitory." In other words, we're not worried about inflation being too low, because we believe the inflation rate is going to rise, and so there's nothing to worry about. In fact, what Powell said was that the Fed will be patient, but as of right now, they can't see a reason why they should hike or they don't see a reason why they should cut.

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Q1 Likely the Strongest Quarter of the Year – Ep. 462

Sat, 27 Apr 2019 01:19:49 +0000

Recorded April 26, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Q1 GDP Expected at 2.3%
Today we finally got the first estimate for the U.S. GDP in the first quarter of 2019, and typically the first quarter of the year has been rather weak. That has been the experience pretty much going back through the Barack Obama administration. And the consensus was for a 2.3% rise in Q1 GDP, that would have been just a slight improvement over the 2.2% number that we got for the 4th quarter of 2018.

Expectations Were Low
If you remember, way back, a couple of months ago, everybody was really low. You had a lot of people who were looking for Q1 GDP to come out with a zero handle. But they had been ratcheting up those expectations now to a consensus of 2.3%. A lot of it had to do with the fact that the trade deficits had come in a lot smaller than people thought. I think the reason for that is because the trade deficit really ramped up in the last couple of quarters, probably because businesses were trying to front-run the tariffs that were supposed to come in at the end of last year. That might have caused extra imports to try to get things in under the gun before they were subjected to the tariffs. So because we pulled all that forward, imports weren't as much in the first quarter, so they did not subtract as much from the GDP.

Inventories Continued to Build
Also, the inventories continue to build, but most importantly, because they weren't selling. Goods weren't selling as much - inventories were building. That ended up helping. We ended up getting a number that was much bigger than consensus. We actually got 3.2% GDP growth for Q1.

Delaying the Day of Reckoning
Now, before you get all excited, "Aha, Peter, you were totally wrong on this, you were looking for a weak number…" - first of all, a lot of people were looking for a weak number. It wasn't just me. But I do believe that we simply delayed the day of reckoning by a quarter. I think this time, it's going to be the second quarter that will be a big disaster.

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Raise the Voting Age, Not the Smoking Age – Ep. 461

Tue, 23 Apr 2019 01:13:08 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Easter and Passover
I hope everybody enjoyed their Easter holiday, in fact, today is Easter Monday, so many parts of the world are still celebrating, including here in Puerto Rico. We are still in the holiday of Passover, so hopefully everybody who celebrates Passover, myself included, is still enjoying that holiday. In fact, this year, the first night of Passover coincided with Good Friday; a rare occasion that unites the two religions. We generally end up celebrating both.

Removal of Sanction Exemptions Drives Oil Prices Up
The markets have been quiet around the holidays. The big story today in the markets was the price of crude oil - up about $1.60/barrel. We're now at $65.71 per barrel. This is a new high for the year. Today, the catalyst was the Trump administration announcing that they would be withdrawing the exemptions that allow certain countries such as Japan, India, China - a number of countries currently buying oil from Ira. Now we're saying no more exemptions. They're saying, if you buy oil from Iran, then you're going to get sanctioned. Generally, what that means is the U.S. is going to shut you out of access to the dollar-based financial system - wiring and using the resources of the Fed. Considering that most of the world still transacts internationally in U.S. dollars is a very very serious punishment that the U.S. is able to dole out to any nation that does not do its bidding.

Effect on our Trading Partners?
Now, of course, this angers our trading partners who do not like being dictated to by the United States, they do not like the United States being able to tell them who they can and cannot do business with, and to punish them if they do not do what the United States says. Of course, this is all a function of the U.S. dollar being the reserve currency, which certainly gives nations like China, or like Russia or any other nation an incentive to try to move away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.

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April’s Fools Day Comes Late – Ep. 460

Wed, 17 Apr 2019 01:24:10 +0000

Recorded April 16, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Tax Day
Yesterday was April 15th - Tax Day, or as my father, Irwin Schiff used to say, "April Fool's Day". My father thought it was April Fool's Day because he believed that that was the day on which Americans basically voluntarily paid a tax that no law required them to pay and voluntarily filed a 1040 tax form that no law required them to file. Of course, my father ultimately went to jail and died and jail because of those beliefs. I have been paying my taxes, although now that I live in Puerto Rico it's not nearly as painful as it used to be when I lived in Connecticut.
16th Amendment
A lot of people don't realize that April 15 was not always Tax Day; a little bit of trivia. When the income tax first passed, or reared its ugly head in 1913 - although that's not the first time we had an income tax. We had an income tax during the civil war. The North imposed the tax and when the war ended, the income tax went away. It came back again, and it was declared unconstitutional, correctly, by the Supreme Court in the Pollock Decision. Then they resurrected it with the 16th Amendment, and following the 16th Amendment in 1913, the original Tax Day was March 1.
Income Tax
Why is that? Because the income tax is a tax on your income for an entire year. So, we are now in 2019 and we're paying our income taxes for 2018. But you don't know what your income is in 2018 until the year is over. You may have earned a lot of money early in the year - you could lose it all back on the last day of the year and end up with no income at all - end up with a loss. So the idea was, if you're going to tax your income, then we have to wait until the end of the year, and then we have to give you some time to add up your income and figure out what you owe and then pay the tax.

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Political Theater of the Absurd – Ep. 459

Wed, 10 Apr 2019 23:51:25 +0000

Recorded April 10, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW May 13 - 15, 2019
Lyft Sinking
I began yesterday's podcast by pointing out the weakness in shares of the recent IPO of Lyft. In fact, I mentioned that Friday's close above the IPO price (the first time it closed above that price since the day of the IPO) the fact that it couldn't hold on to that rally, I thought that meant the stock looked even weaker, technically. And we got a big follow through today. Lyft sank about 11%, it closed near the lows of the day, 60.12. In fact, we did trade as low as 59.75 on the closing minutes of trading. We're now down about 32% from the opening print, after it went IPO on that day. We're 17-18% below the IPO price. If you happen to get the IPO price and you still have the stock, you're almost in a bear market from that purchase price.
Catalyst: Uber News
The catalyst today was the news that it looks like the Uber IPO is going to happen sooner than everybody thought. Maybe they will be filing as early as this week, and the IPO is going to be bigger than people initially thought, as far as how much stock they're looking to unload on investors. Although, they're taking the valuation down from maybe $90 to $100 billion. I think initially they were talking $110-120 billion, and they're going to look to unload about 10% of the company - $10 billion. Now, you would think, "Wait a minute, if Lyft is doing so poorly, what is the rush to bring Uber to the market? Doesn't it seem like a bad time?" But if you think about it, I think what Wall Street is worried about, is if they wait even longer, the price of Lyft will sink even further. So it's a mad dash to get this thing out there before it really hits the fan, because this is showtime for all of these unicorns.

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Democracy has Failed, Not Capitalism – Ep. 458

Wed, 10 Apr 2019 02:17:45 +0000

VERY IMPORTANT PODCAST! Please share with everyone you care about. Ray Dalio: Please start at 29:52
Extreme Inequality Is Not a Function of Capitalism
I agree that wealth inequality is a problem, but it is a problem that is created by government - created by the Federal Reserve. I was warning years ago, when the Federal Reserve first launched Quantitative Easing, that this was going to happen! This policy would only benefit assets at the expense of the overall economy. I've been warning about this for years. The government is doing this, not the market. So, yes, I want the government to do something about wealth inequality by getting out of the way. I want Capitalism to do something about inequality. Now, of course, there's always going to be inequality - that's part of capitalism. People are not going to be equal, because peoples' contributions are not equal. What is not normal right now is the extent of the disparity. That extreme inequality is not a function of Capitalism. if we enjoyed Capitalism, there would be less inequality.
We Need to Embrace and Re-Discover Capitalism
Ray Dalio recently replied to a recent Tweet of mine, referring to his appearance on 60 Minutes, stating that if the only solution Ray Dalio has is to raise taxes on the rich, and to hope the government spends the money productively, then he has no solution. So then he referred me to his article, which I read, word for word: Why and How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed, parts 1 and 2. Again, Capitalism does not need to be reformed. What needs to be reformed is Democracy. We need to embrace and re-discover Capitalism and what needs to be reformed is all of the Socialism that has been interjected into Capitalism.
Government Makes It Difficult for Small Businesses to Hire Young People
I told Ray Dalio that I would read his article and I read it and made some notes and I'm going to go over my thoughts now. Number one, right off the bat, Dalio talks about all the jobs he had by the time he was age 12. He came from humble beginnings, he wasn't born wealthy, he is a rags-to-riches story, an American Dream story. By the time his was 12, he made money delivering newspapers, mowing lawns, caddying, and he invested the money he earned in the stock market. The first thing that grabs my attention is, "how many 12-year-olds today have jobs?" Very few young people today have jobs. Why is that? one of the reasons is because the government has made it so difficult for small businesses to hire young people - minimum wage laws, and workmen's comp, disability, unemployment make it difficult for young people to get jobs.

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Trump Puts QE4 in Play – Ep. 457

Sat, 06 Apr 2019 00:29:15 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Rebound Expected in Jobs Report
Stock market in the U.S. continued to grind higher today, although I still believe that this is a bear market rally. The Dow added a little better than 40 points; the NASDAQ up about 47, so a bigger percentage gain there. The S&P was up about 13 points. This was following the release of the March Nonfarm Payrolls numbers - aka the Jobs Report. There was a lot of hope that we would see a rebound in the month of March. Remember, in February, they initially reported just 20,000 jobs created, which was well short of what had been expected. It was probably something close to 200,o00 jobs. And the consensus for March was for 170,000 jobs and we actually got 196,000 jobs.
Pretty Weak Number
That's the first look. So that is, what, 26,000 jobs better than had been expected. The February number was revised upward, but just to 33,000, and I think I remember when this number first came out, that there were a lot of naysayers who were saying, "This is crazy, there is no way this is true, let's wait for the revisions". Well, we've got a revision, and all we did is revise it up to 33,000. So it seems like the number was legitimate. We did have a rebound in the month of March, but 170,000 is not a lot of jobs, considering how few jobs were created in February. In fact, if you average the two months, it's a pretty weak number.
Weakness in Labor Force Participation Rate
The official unemployment rate, that held steady at 3.8%, but the labor force participation rate, which I know a lot of people have been encouraged by, because they see that number notching higher, it dropped back down .o2, from 63.2% to 63%. So that's some weakness there. Also, if you look at the manufacturing jobs, they were looking for a gain of 10,000 jobs. Instead, we got a loss of 6,000 jobs. They took the February gain, which was originally reported at 4,000, and we only gained 1,000. So the markets were looking for an improvement over the original estimate for February; instead, not only did we take February's number down, but instead of improving, we actually went in the other direction and lost manufacturing jobs.
Average Hourly Earnings Posts Sharp Slowdown
If you look at the average hourly earnings, they were looking for a gain of +.2 and we got half that of +.1, and that is a sharp slowdown from the gain the prior month, which was +.4, which was better than had been estimated at the time. So now you average them out, and, again, we're not getting much in the way of earnings growth, although we are seeing a rise in the cost of living.
Average Work Week Up
The average work week was up; it ticked up from 34.4 hours to 34.5 hours. Nonetheless, most of the coverage of the jobs numbers was that is was a good report. It was better than estimates, because they were looking for 170-whatever and they got 190-something, so it was better than estimates.

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AOC Right for the Wrong Reasons – Ep. 456

Wed, 03 Apr 2019 00:42:34 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recorded April 2, 2019
February Durable Goods Order Declined Slightly Less Than Expected

We had a quiet day in the U.S. stock market today. Not much reaction from a slightly weaker than expected February Durable Goods Orders number that came out before the market opened. They were looking for a weak number; the consensus was for a decline of 1.8% - we got a decline of slightly less than that: 1.6%. They revised the prior month down from +.4% to +.1%, so we declined less, but from a lower number. Overall, slightly weaker. In fact, the Core Capital Goods number was also slightly weaker. They were looking for a rise of .2%; instead, we had a drop of .1% - although they revised the prior month up from .8% to .9%. Still a little weaker on the day.

Lyft Hitting Lows
But the market still seems to be oblivious to the weak data, in fact later in the day we did get the auto sales numbers that were disappointing, as well. A lot of bad news is being routinely overlooked by Wall Street. Lyft, the company that went public on Friday: I discussed the lackluster performance of that IPO on Friday. In fact, most of the commentary that I listened to or saw was positive. They were describing the Lyft IPO as a big success… everything went great… the stock went up… But what concerned me about the stock was not how it went up, but how weakly it closed. It pretty much closed on the low of the day. It had sold off pretty much all day, following the pop on the open.

Lyft Sank into Bear Market on Day 2
The stock came public at $72 and it immediately traded as high as $88.6, but closed the first day of trading at $78.29. Still above the $72 opening, but anybody who bought the opening print was down. Then it got clobbered on Monday and it fell again today. It only closed down slightly. It closed relatively near the highs of the day, but the low was $66.10. That's 25% below the peak price on Friday. So that's a bear market. In fact, officially Lyft sank into a bear market on its second day as a public company. So that bear market got even worse today. The stock is now better than 8% below its IPO price.

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Fed Gives Stocks a Q1 Lyft – Ep. 455

Sat, 30 Mar 2019 01:38:38 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

A Gift from the Federal Reserve
The Dow Jones closed out its best quarter since 1998 with a 211 point gain: 25,928.68 was the close. The Dow, on the quarter up 10.3% - the broader averages doing even better. The S&P 500 rose 12.3% on the quarter. The Russell 2000 - 13.8%, and the NASDAQ 15.6% gain on the quarter. of course, the entire rally was a gift from the Federal Reserve. Had the Federal Reserve stayed on its course, indicating that more rate hikes were coming; 3 or 4 this year; had the Fed continued with its planned auto-pilot reduction in the size of its enormous balance sheet, the stock market would be considerably lower. In fact, we probably would have added to the losses experienced in the 4th quarter of last year with additional losses this year. But the Fed, as I had been predicting for many years, reacted to the weakness in the stock market and the weakness in the economy by reversing course.

Bigger Cuts Ahead then the Market is Currently Pricing In
Now the Fed hasn't actually cut rates yet, although the markets are already anticipating rate cuts and not additional rate hikes. Where the markets got it wrong is that there will be much bigger cuts than what the market is currently pricing in. I think the market is looking at maybe 25 or 50 basis points of cuts. In fact, we're going all the way back to zero. A reduction in interest rates of 25 basis points or 50 basis points would do absolutely nothing.

Quackery: Substituting a Bubble for the Illusion of Economic Growth
I think the Fed, again, is going to have to go all the way down to zero once it decides that's what it's going to do. But had the Fed not changed course, the markets and the economy would be quite a bit weaker. Although not weaker - more air would have come out of the bubble. That's all the Fed has been doing with its monetary policy is sustaining a bubble. Allowing the bubble to get bigger and bigger, while preventing the underlying structural problems from being solved. Even though those solutions involve some short-term pain, as a trade-off for long-term gain, it is a very healthy process that would be good for the economy in the long run. But, instead, the Fed has interfered with the market's medicine and substituted its own quackery - substituting a bubble to create the illusion of economic growth as the economy is actually worsening.

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Fear Is Not a Factor – Ep. 454

Wed, 27 Mar 2019 02:12:35 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 – 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recorded March 26, 2019
Feigned Attempt to Shrink the Balance Sheet
I am finally back on land, having spent 9 days at sea, at the Investors Summit at Sea. I've been doing this annually now, this is my 7th time doing that. I am now back, technically one calendar year older. I want to catch up a little bit on what happened in the market later last week. I did do that one podcast from the ship following the complete capitulation on the part of the Federal Reserve, basically calling off all of the rate hikes that anybody thought may have been coming for the remainder of the year. Also calling off their feigned attempt to shrink the balance sheet - quantitative tightening. The balance sheet will barely shrink between now and the end of the summer, when it will stop shrinking altogether; if they can even keep up the pretense for that long.
Nobody Appreciates What the Fed Has Done
If you remember, when I was forecasting that this was going to happen, at the very beginning, in fact even before the Fed began to shrink its balance sheet, before the Fed raised rates for the first time, I said that if they ever tried to normalize interest rates, if they ever tried to shrink the balance sheet, they would ultimately abort the process - that they would fail in their mission. They could not complete the journey. It would create a huge problem for the Fed, which up until this point, it hasn't happened yet. Nobody really appreciates what the Fed has done.
There Will Be an Excuse
A lot of the people in the investment community are still buying at face value what the Fed is saying. But remember, when I said the Fed was going to announce that it was going to stop the rate hikes or call off quantitative tightening, I said at the time, that they were going to come up with an excuse. That the Fed was not going to tell the markets the truth about why it had aborted this mission - it was just going to make up an excuse. The Fed had to pretend that they could actually do this - that they were going to normalize interest rates, that they were going to shrink their balance sheet but something prevented them from doing it.

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Fed’s Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words – Ep. 453

Thu, 21 Mar 2019 00:46:54 +0000

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
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Recording Today's Podcast from Willemstad, Curaçao
I am recording today's podcast from my cabin on a cruise ship, which is right now docked on the Dutch island of Curaçao, which is about 35 miles north of Venezuela. I've never actually been to this island, even though I live in the Caribbean now, in Puerto Rico, there are still many places in the Caribbean that I have not visited. I really wish I'd come here sooner. I had no idea how beautiful this island was. Not really the beaches, so much, although I'm sure they are equally spectacular. I didn't go to the beach. I just spent the day walking around town. But it's probably the most charming Caribbean island I've been to, as far as the architecture and the way the town is laid out - how beautiful the streets are, and the buildings and how clean they are. It really seems like a nice place to live. I think there is a permanent population of about 160,000 people.
The Fed's Decision
I want to spend my limited time on today's podcast talking about the Federal Reserve's decision today and the press conference. I did get back on the boat in time to watch the press conference live, and I do want to limit today's podcast to that discussion.

Before the Fed announced its decision on interest rates - nobody expected a rate hike, and we did not get a rate hike, but before the Fed announced today's decision, the markets were on the defensive. Earlier in the day, Donald Trump had mentioned that he now thinks that the tariffs on Chinese imports, or on Americans who want to buy Chinese imports, may remain in effect for a much longer period of time; indicating that maybe this great trade deal is not as close as the President was letting on in the past.
Unexpected Dovishness
So the markets sold off. I think the Dow, maybe at the lows was down about 170-some odd points, not exactly sure, but then, when the Fed announced its decision not to hike, the market erased all of those losses, and I think at one point we were up close to triple digits. Nobody was expecting a hike; I think they were expecting the Fed to be dovish, but I don't think they were expecting the Fed to be this dovish.

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Powell Tells Nation There’s Nothing to Fear – Ep. 452

Thu, 14 Mar 2019 01:01:49 +0000

Recorded March 13, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
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Big Drop in Boeing: Opportunity to buy into Dip
The Dow is continuing to rebound this week, up 148 points today - 25,702 was the close. In fact, the Dow would be higher if it weren't for an about 11% decline in Boeing so far this week. I am going to talk on this podcast about the controversy surrounding Boeing and their 737 Max 8 aircraft. But for now I want to talk just about the markets. I actually think that it was the big gap down on Monday morning, where Boeing first reacted to the news of the plane crash in Ethiopia and the Dow was down better than 200 points - all of it the big drop in Boeing. I think traders looked at that news as an opportunity to buy into the dip. I think you saw people rushing in at that point. That kind of marked a short term bottom in the market and now we're back up around the highs of this bear market correction.
Smarter Money Selling into this Rally
I do believe that we're going to be running into resistance again at this area - but that was probably an opportunity for some people, they saw that dip and they rushed in and they bought other stocks. Typically there's some kind of news event that would coincide with some type of inflection point in the market. I don't think it's a significant low; I just think it is a low in an ongoing process, this bear market rally, this correction in the bear market is not ending quickly, but I do believe it is ending. I think the smarter money is selling into this rally.
Retail Sales: December was not a Fluke
The economic news - a couple of items that came out this week were a little better than estimated. But look at the Retail Sales number that came out on Monday. That one, to me, still confirms that the numbers that we got in December were not a fluke. A lot of people initially dismissed the weak number in December. The initial report for December Retail Sales was -1.2. They were looking for a rebound in January and the got one. They were only looking for a rebound of .1 and they got a rebound of .2. They actually revised the prior month that was originally reported as down 1.2, that moved to down 1.6. So an even bigger decline December than was originally reported. Remember, this is a 10-year low.

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Whistling Past the Stagflation Graveyard – Ep. 451

Sat, 09 Mar 2019 02:21:30 +0000

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Market Down Before the Bell
A late-day rally wasn't enough to bring the U.S. stock market indexes into the black on the day. In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last. The market was down from the bell this morning. Even before the bell, if you look at the futures, even before we got the jobs number - the February jobs report (which I will get into a little later in this podcast) the markets were already down. The Dow Futures, I think were off about 125, 135, something like that. Normally, the markets are not making a big move in either direction before the jobs report comes out, because people don't know what the number is going to be, and generally it's a market-moving number, so the markets are typically pretty flat before we get the number.

Trade Deal Up in the Air
This time, the markets were down. Based on rumors that the trade deal with China may be delayed. People were talking about this Mar-a-Lago Summit that was going to take place later in the month, and now I was reading about how there may not be a deal in time, and the Chinese may not want to go to Mar-a-Lago, and so the whole thing is up in the air. So people were getting a little nervous about the trade deal. So that's why the markets were already selling off, plus, I think the Chinese markets had been weaker overnight. Trump or someone else Tweeted out that Trump had said, as soon as we signed the trade deal, the markets are really going to spike. Apparently, nobody has explained to Donald Trump how the stock market works. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Maybe the President has more experience in the real estate market, not understanding how the stock market generally anticipates news, and sells off on the realization of that news.

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America’s Twin Deficits Hitting Record Highs – Ep. 450

Thu, 07 Mar 2019 00:35:16 +0000

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Wall of Overhead Resistance
It looks like the correction in the U.S. stock market, and by correction I am referring to the rally, the first correction in what I believe is a new bear market - but it's looking like that correction may have finally run its course as the stock market has run into a wall of overhead resistance. In fact, the technical action on Monday was quite telling, because early in the morning we opened quite a bit higher - 100 points or so higher, and then had a 350-point reversal to the downside. The catalyst for the initial rally was yet another rumor of an impending trade deal with China. And it seems to me that we've basically run out of the ability to continue to rally the market by regurgitating the same news story over and over again.

Now They've Sold the Last Rumor
Remember I was saying that, when we actually have a trade deal, with China, my thinking would be it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact"? Well the problem is, traders have already bought that rumor over and over again and that they may have already sold the last rumor. They can't wait for the fact. They've just had so many rumors, that now they've sold the last rumor, and it doesn't even matter if we get a deal - the market is going to sell off. Of course, if we get no deal at all, then the market could sell off even more, because a great deal has already been priced in to the market. But there isn't going to be a great deal. There will be a deal, there will be nothing great about it; there will probably be nothing substantive about it. Expectations have been raised so high, which is another reason that I don't think Trump is as good a negotiator as he pretends.

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Are Debt-Laden Consumers Finally Tapped Out? – Ep. 449

Sat, 02 Mar 2019 02:54:24 +0000

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Market Keeps Rallying on Regurgitated News
The Dow Jones started off the final day of the week with a pretty strong rally; we were up a little better than 200 points earlier in the day. Then we got some weaker than expected economic data which I will get to a bit later, and the market sold off. The Dow never quite went negative, and then we rallied back and the Dow managed to end the week back above 26,000 with a 110 point gain. In fact all of the major indexes were positive on the day. What caused the early morning rally was optimism, once again, that a trade deal with China is about to be signed, and it's kind of amazing how often the markets can bite on this and keep rallying on regurgitated news, because, we've heard this before.
According to Trump the Chinese Are Going to Pay, but According to Economics, Americans Are Going to Pay
As I have said on this podcast before, we are going to get a trade deal. A trade deal with China is inevitable. The only positive about the trade deal is going to be that it takes the prospect of a self-inflicted wound off the table. That's the only good thing. If we have a trade deal, then Trump is not going to increase tariffs on American businesses and on American consumers. That is the empty threat that is out there: "Hey, we're going to force China to the negotiation table because, if they don't, we're going to erect these tariffs, which, according to Trump the Chinese are going to pay, but according to economics, Americans are going to pay. That's one of the reasons that we can't afford to actually use this weapon that we are threatening the Chinese with.
Promising the Moon
In fact, one of the reasons that you had all this optimism about this new deal was Larry Kudlow was out talking about how great the new deal is going to be - how this is going to be a huge win for America, it's a fantastic deal, it's a boon, it's better than we could have expected, it is all-encompassing... He has really raised expectations. Doesn't Kudlow know anything about the expectation game? The idea is to under-promise so you can over-deliver. It seems like we're destined for failure here because everybody in the Trump administration is promising the moon.

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Powell Puts It to Congress – Ep. 448

Thu, 28 Feb 2019 02:33:00 +0000

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Jerome Powell Wades into the Deficit Debate
This year Fed chairman Jerome Powell made his obligatory visit to Capital Hill, where he spoke to Senators and Representatives about monetary policy. Of course, this really just amounts to a press conference for Democrats and Republicans to either talk up the economy or talk down the economy, depending on who's got the White House. Trump is the President, so you have a lot of Democrats trying to talk about why the economy is actually weak and trying to get the Fed Chairman to say something negative about the economy, or negative about President Trump. And, of course you have the Republicans trying to get Powell to validate how great the economy is, and how Trump's policies are helping the economy.

Republicans Aren't Willing to Recognize Problems
The biggest problem with all this is that the biggest promoters of how great the economy is are the Republicans. These are supposedly the defenders of capitalism and they're saying everything is great, everything is booming, and you have the Democrats, particularly the Democratic Socialists saying that there are a lot of problems. And the Republicans are saying that these problems don't exist.

Democratic Socialists Have no Idea Why the Economy is Screwed Up
Unfortunately, when it hits the fan, when we end up in a recession, and I've been making this point over and over again, Capitalism is going to be thoroughly discredited because the people who advocate it were oblivious to the problems. They said everything was fine. Now the Socialists will appear to be the ons who had it right - even though they were right for the wrong reasons. They have no idea why the economy is screwed up, and their plans to solve the problems will just screw it up even more. But the voters aren't going to know that. They're going to say, "Oh, these Republicans who talk about Capitalism, they were wrong. They didn't realize what a mess it was. These Democratic Socialists, they knew there was a problem, so let's vote for them."

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Fed Indicates Tolerance for Higher Inflation – Ep. 447

Sat, 23 Feb 2019 02:28:04 +0000

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Another "Greatest Deal Ever"
'The Dow rose a little over 180 points today, closing above 26,000 -26,031.81, to be exact, for the first time during this bear market rally. I still believe that we are in a bear market rally, not a new bull market. the catalyst for today for today's stock market strength, and it was across the board; the markets were strong from the opening bell to the closing bell. I think the high in the Dow was maybe just above 200; we sold off intra-day. But the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 were also higher on, again, optimism that there is going to be a trade deal between the U.S. and China. Donald Trump is saying that he is negotiating the greatest deal ever, which is something that I have been saying, regardless of what the deal ends up being, Trump is going to say "It is the Greatest Deal Ever".

What Helps China Is an Appreciating Yuan
But there was a lot of attention being paid to the deal, a lot of stories coming out that were close to a deal. In fact, I read that they do have a agreement on exchange rates. Currencies, obviously the U.S. likes to accuse China of being a currency manipulator, and so maybe there's some type of deal that says they won't manipulate their currency - they won't use their currency as a weapon. Which is something China wasn't going to do, anyway. To the extent that we win any concessions from the Chinese, where they agree not to weaken their currency, that basically amounts to nothing. In fact, a weak currency is bad for China. What helps China is an appreciating Yuan.

Today's "Fedspeak" on Inflation
More important than the talk about the trade deal was a lot of "Fedspeak" today. You had a lot of Fed officials that were talking; James Bullard, Clarida, John Williams - they were all talking. The real common theme today was inflation. I have been talking about this for years. How was the Federal Reserve going to basically respond to inflation above their 2% target? The real rate of inflation has probably been above 2%, in fact I'm confident that it's been above 2% every year.

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QE is Officially Debt Monetization – Ep. 446

Thu, 21 Feb 2019 02:25:36 +0000

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FOMC Minutes Describe Abrupt About-Face
This afternoon we got the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting which took place a few weeks ago. This was the meeting where the Federal Reserve did what is now being described as probably the biggest policy shift in the history of the Fed. This was really an abrupt about-face, where they went from "Everything is great; we're going to keep on raising interest rates, and we are on auto-pilot - we are going to let the balance sheet continue to decline." All of a sudden, now they're "patient", meaning they're not going to raise rates at all in the foreseeable future, and not only is the balance sheet reduction program no longer on auto pilot, but it is now going to end prematurely sometime this year.
Fed Balance Sheet North of $4 Trillion
Of course, the balance sheet is still north of $4 trillion, and if the reduction program comes to an end this year, you're still going to be talking about a balance sheet $3.5 to $4 trillion in size. This would mean that almost all of the mortgages and treasuries which the Federal Reserve purchased in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis as part of its Quantitative Easing Programs, 1,2&3. Almost all of that debt will remain on its balance sheet after the Fed has finished shrinking it. Also, FOMC officials are now talking about Quantitative Easing once again as just another tool in the Fed's tool box. It's no longer something that will pulled out for an emergency, it's just going to be a normal policy tool for the Fed to deal with recession. Of course, that's going to be their main tool, given that this next recession is going to start when interest rates are at 2.25%. So there is not a lot of room for the Fed to try to artificially stimulate the economy when it hardly has any room to reduce rates.
Quantitative Easing is Debt Monetization
Of course, what does that mean about the Fed's balance sheet? That means the balance sheet will ultimately be much higher than it was when it began its current Operation Quantitative Tightening. We will be higher than we were before it started. All this does is confirm what I've been saying all along, that Quantitative Easing is Debt Monetization.

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The Real National Emergency is the National Debt – Ep. 445

Sat, 16 Feb 2019 01:41:17 +0000

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Market Rallies on Old News
The U.S. stock market continues to rally on basically the exact same news story that keeps on getting replayed. Today, it was the absence of another government shutdown. I guess now, this is final when it comes to no more government shutdowns, although that should have been obvious to everybody when Trump caved the last time and decided to pay everybody and temporarily end the shutdown. I said on my podcast at that time that that was it; that there was no way that there was going to be another government shutdown - yet the market continues to celebrate when they think that the shutdown's not going to happen.

A National Emergency for the Wall
Well now they know for sure it's not going to happen. Everything's signed, it's a done deal and Trump is getting his wall anyway because he has now declared a national emergency, and so now because it's a national emergency, we are now going to pull these funds from other parts of the budget and we are going to build the wall.

The National Debt is the Real National Emergency
Of course, the real national emergency is not the lack of a wall, the failure to build the wall, but building up the national debt. The $22 trillion national debt. We eclipsed that dubious milestone earlier in the week. And again, when you talk about the national debt at $22 trillion, we're talking about the tip of a huge iceberg. This is just the funded portion of the debt. This is where the U.S. sells a bond and somebody owns that bond.

The Tip of the Iceberg
It doesn't include liabilities like what the government owes for Social Security, or guaranteed bank deposits, or mortgages or student loans - that's not there. Those are contingent liabilities. They're just as real. They're not even part of the national debt. So, when you look at all the liabilities that the U.S. government is on the hook for, you're talking about well over $100 trillion - so $20 trillion is maybe d5 or 10 percent of the debt. But that debt is the real national emergency.

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GND Plus MMT Equals a Marriage Made in Hell – Ep. 444

Wed, 13 Feb 2019 01:31:58 +0000

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The 7th Best Start Ever for the S&P 500
The Dow was up 372 points today, continuing the bear market rally. In fact, this is the best start for a year in almost 30 years - 28 years to be exact. I think it is the 7th best start ever for the S&P 500. Now I think the other 6 starts that were better; 3 of those happened during rather dubious circumstances. Two occurred during the Great Depression, and one of them happened in 1987, and we all know how that year ended up. So sometimes getting off to a good start doesn't necessarily mean that the year is going to finish strong, or the year, itself, is going to be a prosperous year. Again, I think the main reason that the market is so strong early this year is, A) because of the sharp decline we had at the end of last year and B) because the Federal Reserve came in to save the market precisely the way I had forecasted for many years.
How Many Times Can the Market Rally on the Same Good News?
We had a lot of news today that was supposedly good news which provided the extra catalyst for the market. The question, of course, is, "How many times can the market rally on the same good news? One of the pieces of good news was the fact that it looks like maybe there is some kind of compromise on the border that will avert a second government shutdown, and that is supposedly good news. Of course, we've been having this type of good news over and over again.

Also, on the trade front, there were some rumors that the negotiations were going well (some of these rumors started by Trump), so when the market hears that, and that they will probably extend the deadline. If the negotiations were really going great, they wouldn't have to extend the deadline.

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The Socialist Insanity of a Green Utopia – Ep. 443

Sat, 09 Feb 2019 19:09:43 +0000

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Disguising "Red" Goals in Green Wrapping
I'm still here in my hotel room in Orlando at the Money Show, but before I went downstairs on this Saturday morning, I wanted to record a podcast to address the issues raised by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC, as she is now being referred to - I guess I'm just going to call her the bartender for simplicity. Well, anyway, the bartender-turned-congresswoman has released the laughable details of her "Green New Deal". Of course, the Green New Deal really lays bare the smokescreen that I have always believed existed with respect to extreme environmentalism. I've always thought that it masked a real desire for socialism; that the real goal of some of these radical environmentalists was socialism: nationalizing the means of production, getting government control. But they couldn't come out and say that. They had to disguise their "red" goals with green wrapping.
This Bartender is Advocating Fascism
They had to approach it as an environmental issue;"Hey, we have to save the planet!" and, yeah, who isn't in favor of that? Everybody wants clean air and clean water. So the way the Socialists really try to wedge their way into the mainstream was with this veneer of Environmentalism. But when you actually read the "Green New Deal", it blows all the smoke away. It really lays bare the Socialist agenda of environmentalists. Really, that's what the Green New Deal is all about. It's Red. It's all about turning America into a Socialist economy, or more particularly, a Fascist economy, because Fascism is really the form of Socialism that best describes what this bartender is advocating.
The Government Taking over the Means of Production
I have said from the beginning when Ocasio-Cortez ( the bartender) describes herself as a Democratic Socialist - "I'm not a real Socialist, I am a DEMOCRATIC Socialist - putting the word "Democratic before something bad doesn't make something bad into something good. If you read this proposal, it is pure, unadulterated Socialism. It is about the government taking over the means of production. The bartender actually believes that the government, by micromanaging the economy, it will succeed in creating prosperity. This is what every Socialist who has risen to power, rather by force or by vote, has promised the public. They always promise pie-in-the sky prosperity, all these great things that the government is going to provide. In order to get people to buy into this, they have to create a false threat of global warming.

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Misstate of the Union – Ep. 442

Wed, 06 Feb 2019 22:24:44 +0000

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State of the Union Not Addressed
Last night President Trump delivered what purported to be a State of the Union address but really, Donald Trump talked about a lot of things, but he didn't really speak at all about the State of the Union. Bernie Sanders recorded his own response. He didn't do the official Democratic response; that was done by Stacey Abrams, the woman who ran for and lost the Governorship of Georgia in 2018. She was a Democratic candidate. I think the Democrats are grooming her probably to run for Senate in 2020 so they wanted to put her up on that stage and shine the spotlight on her.
Bernie Did a Better Job of Laying out Economic Problems
But Bernie Sanders delivered his own response on YouTube, and Bernie Sanders did a much better job of describing the problems in the U.S. economy, that Donald Trump ignored in his State of the Union address. He spoke a little bit about the economy; he said we're having an "economic miracle" here in the Unites States, that we were the envy of the world, the hottest economy in the world. Everything is great, and theoretically the only thing that could screw it up is if the Democrats keep going after him with this ridiculous investigation, but everything is doing great, which, of course is a bunch of nonsense.
Socialism, However, Won't Work
Bernie Sanders did a much better job of presenting the facts. He pointed out that maybe, if Donald Trump is talking about his rich friends at Mar-a-Lago Country Club - for those guys, the economy is great. But for average Americans, the economy is lousy and Sanders describes some of the problems that Donald Trump overlooked or ignored when he gave his address. This is going to be the problem for the Republicans in 2020 when they run for re-election, talking about how great the economy is, they don't have a chance. It's the Democrats who will be feeling the pain of the voters and coming up with their own solution. The problem is, the solutions that Bernie Sanders is putting forth, Socialism, aren't going to work.

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Truth Is the Real Victim – Ep. 441

Sat, 02 Feb 2019 00:56:16 +0000

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Stronger than Expected Jobs Number
We actually got a bunch of economic data released today; apparently the shutdown no longer is affecting some of these newer releases, although we still have a bunch of old data that has yet to be released. I have a feeling that there is a lot of weak economic data that has yet to come out. Today we got some stronger than expected data including the January jobs number. They were looking for 158,000 jobs to be created, which would follow the 312,000 number that we got for December, which was a surprisingly strong number. So the consensus was that we would have a weaker number in January; but we ended up with 304,000 jobs allegedly being created in January.
December Jobs Number Revised Down 90,000 Jobs
But they now tell us that we didn't create 312,000 jobs in December - we only created 222,000 jobs, which is still a pretty big number, but it's 90,000 less. That's a huge revision, to think that they were off by 90,000 jobs. Maybe they're off by 90,000 jobs in January. I guess we'll have to wait another month to find out. But that number was much bigger than what was expected; and of course, even if you take into consideration the revisions, it was still a better net number than what the markets were looking for.
U6 Went from 7.6% to 8.1%
The official unemployment rate rose to 4%. Part of that was because the Labor Force Participation Rate continued to notch up. It went from 63.1 to 63.2, and since more people are now looking for work, those people are now officially unemployed. But a bigger story than the official rate is the U6 rate, which is far more accurate if you want to get a real look at the U.S. labor market. Of course, it's not 100% accurate because it only includes discouraged workers who have discouraged for under a year. So it doesn't capture any of the long-term unemployed, which are a big part of the American labor market. But the U6 rate includes the short-term discouraged workers, but also the people who are working part time, but who really want to work full time. We had a surge, like half a million part-time jobs were added according to household survey during the month, so a lot of people working part time - they probably want to work full time, but they are settling for part time work. That meant that the U6 number went from 7.6 to 8.1.

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Powell Pause Won’t be Enough – Ep. 440

Thu, 31 Jan 2019 03:27:46 +0000

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Monetary Drug Pushers
Earlier today, the monetary drug pushers at the Federal Reserve gave the addicts on Wall Street exactly the fix that they have been craving. In fact, not only did Powell deliver exactly what the doctor ordered with respect to interest rates, saying the Fed was going to remain "patient", probably indefinitely, with respect to another rate hike, but Powell also made it clear that the balance sheet wind-down, otherwise known as quantitative tightening, was off of auto-pilot. In fact, based on what Powell said, I would be surprised to see any significant reductions in the Fed's balance sheet from here. Not surprising, the market rallied as a result of getting what they wanted out of the Fed. At one point, I think, the Dow was up better than 500 points, but it did close up 434 points - back above 25,000 - 25,014.86, to be precise.
Quantitative Easing and a Return to Zero
But, you know, just like any addict, they can never get enough. I think that soon the markets are going to be demanding a lot more from the Fed than just a cessation of rate hikes and a commitment not to shrink the balance sheet. I think what the addicts are going to require is going to be more quantitative easing and a return to zero, and that is exactly what the Federal Reserve is going to provide, once it realizes that that's what's necessary. Of course, I don't think that is going to work; I think that is going to deliver the overdose that I have been warning about since the Fed first went down this mistaken policy road. I knew that we would ultimately end up exactly where we're headed. It's just that the markets still haven't figured this out.
Markets Need to Focus on the Why
The markets really need to be focusing on the Why. Not just looking at what the Fed is doing, but why the Fed is doing it, and what it actually means about the underlying health of the U.S economy or the efficacy of prior Fed policy. Now if you listened to the press conference, or even just read the prepared remarks, the Federal Reserve wants to pretend that everything is still great - that the U.S. economy is still in great shape. In fact, the Fed wants to pretend the U.S. economy is just a good as it was when it hiked rates during the September meeting, let alone the
December meeting.
Continued Rate Hikes and Auto Pilot QT
Going back to September, when the Fed was saying that they were going to do maybe 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019, and that the balance sheet unwind was on auto-pilot, that the Fed was going to set that aside and sell off about $50 billion worth of treasuries and mortgages every month, just forget about it, not even worry about it and that the Fed was going to simply focus on interest rates.

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Government Shutdown Ends, Fed Capitulation Continues – Ep. 439

Sat, 26 Jan 2019 01:50:50 +0000

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Downwardly Moving Expectations
The record-breaking partial U.S. government shutdown looks like it has now come to an end. Donald Trump today announcing that he is going to be re-opening the government for three weeks, and during that time we will have negotiations regarding funding for the border wall, the barrier, the smart wall - whatever it is being called now. Donald Trump seems to be downwardly moving his expectations of what that wall would constitute, how much terrain it would cover, but at the end of the day, I don't believe that whatever compromise we get 3 weeks from now is going to include any type of funding for the wall.
Democrats Trying to Teach Trump a Lesson
And I think that the President talking about potentially shutting the government down again in 3 weeks if the wall money is not there, I think that's an empty threat; I think that is a bluff that would be easily called by the Democrats. If you look at the Democratic press conference that followed the Trump announcement, Chuck Schumer basically said,"I hope the President learned his lesson." I'm surprised he even said that because it is admission that the Democrats were trying to teach Trump a lesson. That is, in fact, probably what they did.

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Socialism’s Slippery Slope – Ep. 438

Thu, 24 Jan 2019 16:30:51 +0000

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Broader Averages Up
The Dow Jones rose 171 points today recovering a little better than half of yesterday's 300 point decline, helped by some better than expected earnings in both IBM and Proctor and Gamble. The broader averages is also up, but not nearly as much, because of the impact from those stocks; obviously not as strong. In fact, the NASDAQ, and even the S&P 500 all took out yesterday's lows intra-day, but still managed to eke out small gains - actually the Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day.

Dow Transports Down All Day
But the Dow Transports were down all day. They didn't even recover; they closed off the lows, adding about 48 points to yesterday's decline. But everybody in the financial media, in fact everybody at Davos (I'm going to talk about that in a minute) but everybody seems to be completely forgetting the bear market. Ignoring the fact that we went into a bear market and pretending that either we're back in a correction of the bull market or we've actually left correction territory, as if the bull market is still intact, and that bear market that we had never even really took place.

I Wouldn't Bet on the Fact That the Bear Market Is Over
Now, it is possible that the bear market is over. I am not saying it's impossible. It seems to me again that it is extremely unlikely that the longest bull market in history is going to be followed by the shortest bear market in history. I guess it could happen but I wouldn't want to bet on it. A lot of people seem to be betting on it. To me, again, the rally that we had made a lot of sense. After all, the Fed came in and did exactly what I have been saying it is going to do since before they raised rates for the first time.

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Lies of the Left – Ep. 437

Mon, 21 Jan 2019 21:14:20 +0000

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High School Students Smeared by Mainstream Media
I am still out in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Resource Conference. I will be back in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. But I wanted to take a little time out to record this podcast here in my hotel room to address just one topic. And that has to do with this viral video that was making the rounds early yesterday that purported to show a group of high school students taunting an elderly Native American. As soon as this thing went out, spreading throughout the internet, the conduct of the high school students was condemned by everybody.
Fanning the Flames
All the celebrities and the media, everybody on the left we out there condemning the actions of these kids. In fact even the school - they were from an all-boys Catholic high school. Of course, there is nothing racist about the fact that the high school was all boys; there are all-girl Catholic high schools. The idea being that maybe you can educate kids better if they are concentrating on their studies, rather than members of the opposite sex. But even the school administrators or the principal came out and said they condemn the conduct of their students and they're going to look into this and that this does not reflect their values. Of course they're very tolerant, they're not racist, they don't discriminate. Maybe they will even expel these boys. Of course, that comment actually helped fuel the fire.
This Whole Thing is Made Up
I really wish that people would not be so quick to throw people under the bus when confronted by this feigned outrage from the left. This whole thing is just made up. If the government had been skewing this with would be called propaganda. But it is not the government; it is the media elites, it is the left that has concocted a fake story. They have altered the facts to conform to their agenda.

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In Bear Markets Rallies Are Corrections – Ep. 436

Sat, 19 Jan 2019 01:50:33 +0000

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It Is Not a New Bull Market
The U.S. stock market averages continued the bear market correction - the correction actually extended for another week. We capped a strong week with a strong gain today across the board. But this is a correction. It is not a new bull market. But of course, if you watch stations like CNBC you wouldn't know that. All day today all they kept talking about on CNBC was that the market is now out of correction territory, meaning that it is no longer down 10% from the highs, and so we're no longer in a correction.
We Entered a Bear Market
First of all, we didn't enter a correction - we entered a bear market. Now, bear markets have corrections, too. They're called rallies, except people at CNBC don't get that. They think the only correction is a move down in a bull market. Now this bull market went on for 10 years, so a lot of these guys don't remember the last bear market, and it wasn't even that long. A lot of these bear markets have been very short. They decline 40-50% and then the Fed was able to come in and save the day. But people don't get that we are in a bear market now. We haven't made new highs, so any rally is a correction. Certainly a rally of more than 10% - that's the same definition for the downward correction in a bull market. So if you want to apply that definition to an upward correction in a bear market - we are in a correction. This is a pretty big correction, helping the bear market fall a slope of hope.
Russell 2000 Had Best Annual Start Since 1987
The Dow was up around 330 points today, back up to 24,706.35. In fact, if you look at the Dow Jones year to date, we're up almost 6% so far this year. Strong move. We're not even finished with the month of January. Of course we have a holiday weekend, s the markets will not be open on Monday celebrating Martin Luther King Day. But there are still quite a few days left in January. The NASDAQ composite is actually outdoing the Dow, it is now up almost 8% on the year and the biggest gainer is the Russell 2000. It's up almost 10%. In fact the Russell 2000 is having its best annual start since 1987. Now, of course, 1987 didn't end well for the Russell 2000 or any of the stock markets. That was the year of the stock market crash in October.

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The Eye of the Financial Hurricane – Ep. 435

Wed, 16 Jan 2019 01:33:46 +0000

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The Eye of the Financial Hurricane
U.S. stock markets continue to bask in the eye of this financial hurricane. Remember, we ended the hurricane following the September rate hike, and if you recall I titled my podcast, "The Hike that Broke the Camel's Back", and that's what really began the sell-off in the market. We had this horrific fourth quarter, the worst December since 1931. It may have ended up being the worst December ever had it not been saved by that last-minute Santa Claus rally - the biggest Boxing Day (Day after Christmas) rally ever, which followed the worst Christmas Eve in stock market history.

The Fed's New Dovish Outlook
But we entered the eye when the Federal Reserve came out and rescued the markets by backtracking on their previously indicated path of continued rate hikes and quantitative tightening. In fact, we had a lot of people come out this week from the Federal Reserve today, again, reiterating their new dovish outlook. Everybody is a dove. There are no more stock market hawks. Like there are no atheists in a foxhole - in a bear market there are not hawks, there are only doves. That included people who are no longer on the Federal Reserve. Fmr. Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen came out yesterday, and she said that she thinks it is very possible that the December rate hike is the last rate hike in the cycle. She's right about that. It's not just very possible, it's probable. Yesterday we had Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that the Fed is going to raise rates fewer times than they had indicated in their most recent press conference. Of course, by then, they had indicated two rate hikes. Now he is saying they are going to raise rates fewer than two, which could be one, but it could also be zero.

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Blind Fed Leading Blind Investors over a Financial Cliff – Ep. 434

Sat, 12 Jan 2019 02:14:25 +0000

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Everything up on the Week Except Treasury Bonds and the Dollar
The stock market ended a positive week on a little bit of a down note; all of the major averages had small losses today - well off the lows of the day. The market tried a couple of times to sell off but the dips were bought on each occasion and we ended up closing near the highs of the day, even though we were down on the day. Pretty much everything was up on the week except treasury bonds and the dollar. The dollar fell, long-term interest rates rose. Gold was up. Oil was the big winner, even though it was down close to a dollar a barrel today, we closed right around $52; up better than 8% on the week.
All Fed - No Change in Fundamentals
But what has been driving the rally has all been the Fed. There's nothing fundamental that has changed about the U.S. economy or about the U.S. stock market other than the "Powell Put" is now back in play. In fact, it's not just Powell putting that out there, he has been joined by a chorus of central bankers who came out today, yesterday, all throughout the week - they're all now reading from the same dovish playbook. They've got their marching orders and they are talking up the market. Now talking how the Fed has to listen to the market, be careful and take its cues from the market. It used to be that the market didn't matter. The Fed was going to do its thing and the markets are going to do what they are going to do. And it didn't take long for that to change.
The Fed Can Not Allow the House of Cards to Fall
Of course, I've been saying that all along; that the Fed was not going to allow this house of cards that they deliberately inflated to just fall apart. Now they had to pretend that they didn't care about the markets but, of course the whole time, they were hoping the markets actually didn't go down because they didn't want to have to reverse policy. They wanted to talk tough even though they didn't have a stick.

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Markets Running out of Good News to Anticipate – Ep. 433

Thu, 10 Jan 2019 00:46:45 +0000

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast - Episode 433
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A Bear Market Correction
U.S. stocks continue their correction by moving higher yet again today. Remember, when you have a bull market, the corrections are down, because you're correcting the upward trend by moving backward. In a bear market, it's the opposite. You correct a downward trend by retracing upwards. That's what we're doing now. I think this is the first rally in this bear market, so this rally is, in fact, a correction.
Powell is now "Super Dove"
I think the U.S. stock market is off to its best annual start in about a decade; certainly the NASDAQ is up I think not quite 5% - 4.7% on the year. Of course, what got the correction going was the complete 180 by Powell in that round table discussion, where he basically reversed everything he was saying and became the "Super Dove" when it comes to rate hikes. So the market is now pricing out many rate hikes it had probably priced in and that was the catalyst to really get the market going.
Markets Have Not Priced in End of Quantitative Tightening
Of course, what hasn't been priced in yet are the rate cuts or the end of the quantitative tightening program and the re-launching of quantitative easing. All that is coming. The markets just aren't there yet. They just can't see beyond where we are now. They're looking at this mountain and they don't see the valley on the other side.
Interest Rates High Relative to Mountain of Debt
Again, it's not the rate hikes in the future that were going to cause the recession, the rate hikes from the past have already guaranteed a recession, even though interest rates in absolute terms and relative to where they've been historically are still very low, they are not very low considering the enormity of the debt that we now have; that we didn't have historically. So when you have this mountain of debt, a historically large amount of debt, you need a historically low rate. Even though the rates we have now are still low, they're not as low as they used to be and they're not as low as they need to be.

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Dovish Fed Won’t Fly – Ep. 432

Sat, 05 Jan 2019 01:54:32 +0000

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Big Move Up Today
Another big move today in the U.S. stock market except this time the big move was to the upside, more than eradicating yesterday's big decline. In fact, looking back historically, yesterday's drop was the second biggest drop in history for the second day of the New Year. The biggest drop on the second day of a new year was in the year 2000. That was the year when the NASDAQ bubble originally popped. That big drop happened at a time where the market was peaking and we were just beginning a bear market where the U.S. stock market went down by about half and the NASDAQ went down by abut 80%. So not a good comparison.
NASDAQ Biggest Mover Up 4.25%
On the other hand, today's rise was the second biggest rise for the S&P on the third day of a new year in U.S. stock market history. The biggest rise happened in 1932, and that was during the great depression. Clearly not a good period for the U.S. stock market or the U.S. economy to have to go back to 1932 to see a third trading day in January where you have this big a gain. In fact, the Dow was up 3.3% on the day but the S&P up 3.4%. The biggest mover was the NASDAQ, which was up 4.25%. So much bigger than the drop that we had yesterday. The Russell 2000 was up 3.75%.
What was the Catalyst?
So what was the catalyst? Why did the U.S. stock market go up so much today after being down so much yesterday? First of all, the market started off on a positive note. I'm pretty sure we were up 2-300 points right out of the gate in the futures, even before we got the Nonfarm Payroll number that came out at 8:30 a.m. Futures were already trading, and there was already a big gain before that number was released. So it wasn't the jobs report that actually was responsible for today's move.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Dovish Statements
It had much more to do with the comments made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Those comments were made maybe an hour or so after the stock market opened. But let's start off early this morning. What was propping up the market in the morning, or overnight, was more optimism that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is imminent. Now, of course, whatever trade deal is negotiated is going to do nothing.

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Bad News is Bad News – Ep. 431

Fri, 04 Jan 2019 03:16:14 +0000

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Big Moves in the Market Today
For those of you who have been waiting all year for the first Peter Schiff Show Podcast of the new year, 2019, here it is. We finally got a day with enough worthwhile news that it made sense for me to do a podcast. I'll probably end up doing another one tomorrow, when we get the Nonfarm payroll numbers - the jobs numbers. We'll see if that's a big market mover. But we had a lot of movement in the markets today; all sorts of news came out as well, weighing on the markets.
Apple Closed Down 9.7%
The Dow was down 660 points today - pretty much about the same drop that we had on Christmas Eve. Now I doubt that today will be followed by a repeat of Boxing Day, where we get a 1,000 - point rally, but we'll see. The excuse of the day was probably Apple. You can say that Apple took a bite out of the stock market today. Apple announced yesterday just after the close that its sales would be disappointing, and Apple stock was down just under 10%. It closed down 9.7%, pretty close to the lows of the day - not the exact lows, but it has got to be one of the biggest losses in history for Apple.
Everybody Got a Rotten Apple Today
Apple is very widely owned; the Swiss Central Bank is a big holder of Apple stock. A lot of hedge funds own Apple, Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) has a big position in Apple - pretty much in everybody's portfolio. So everybody got a rotten Apple today. In fact, Apple is now down almost 40% - 39% from its peak price. Remember, when it was at peak, it was over a trillion dollars in market cap. It was Apple and Amazon that were trillion dollar companies. Well, no more. Apple, again, has dropped not quite $400 billion in market cap from its peak.

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Santa Claus Rally Came Just the Same – Ep. 430

Sat, 29 Dec 2018 01:47:51 +0000

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Published on: Dec 28, 2018
Or Did It?
It looks like the Grinch may not have been able to stop Christmas from coming to Wall Street. It looks like the Santa Claus Rally came just the same. - or did it?

The worst Christmas Eve in the history of the stock market was followed by the biggest Boxing Day rally in the history of the stock market. We don't celebrate Boxing Day here in the United States; all the other English-speaking nations celebrate that holiday, but maybe we'll celebrate it in the future, given the fact that the Dow Jones rallied over 1,000 points this Boxing Day. So that more than eradicated the 650 point drop which was the biggest Christmas Eve drop in history.
A Bounce Could Come at any Time
If you recall, on my last podcast, I mentioned that following Christmas Eve's drop, this December was the worst December in stock market history. We has finally beaten out the 1931 December. But I also mentioned that given the extreme oversold condition that existed in the market, it was possible that a bounce could come any minute or any day, and I was not sure whether or not we would finish as the worst December in the history of the stock market because we still had several trading days left for the market to bounce, and that is exactly what happened.
The Grinch May Have a Change of Heart
In fact, we managed to close positive on the week. I think the Dow finished up about 617 points. Now, of course, we still have one more day for the Grinch to have another change of heart. If on Monday, the Dow is down more than 617 points which is easy to do given the volatility that we're seeing, especially we're no longer oversold to the extent that we were on Tuesday - then the Grinch may have ended up stealing the Santa Claus Rally anyway.

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The Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally – Ep. 429

Mon, 24 Dec 2018 23:11:17 +0000

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Worst Christmas Eve Day in Stock Market History
As I thought would be the case, it looks like the Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally. Normally, the U.S. stock market rallies during the final five trading days of the year between Christmas and New Year's Day. But today was not only the worst Christmas Eve day in stock market history, it blew apart the old record. In fact, there has never been a Christmas Eve day where the S&P or the Dow fell by as much as 1%. Today, the Dow Jones dropped better than 650 points - 2.9% on the day.

Officially Not a Correction
Although the Dow now is the only major index not officially in a bear market (now down 19.15% from its peak), but the S&P 500, which dropped 2.7% today is now down just over 20%. So it's now official, Wall Street can stop pretending that it's a correction, they have to admit that it's a bear market. Now, if they want to hang their had on the Dow, O.K. well they can hang it there maybe for one more trading day, because it's not going to take much for the Dow to join the party. Of course, other indexes are extending moves into bear market territory. The Dow Transports are down 25.7%; the NASDAQ just under 24% to the downside.

The Russell 2000 Losing Gains Rapidly
The Russell 2000 is down 27.3%. This index is down better than 5-1/2% since Donald Trump was inaugurated. This was the index that was supposed to benefit the most from Trump's economic policies. It's still up about 6% since he was elected President. So all that hype is still in there. But at the rate the index is falling, this index is going to lose those gains pretty rapidly. Then, of course, Trump is not going to be able to talk about all the wealth that has been created in the stock market since he's been elected, because all that paper wealth will have been destroyed.

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The Fed’s Deal with the Devil – Ep. 428

Sat, 22 Dec 2018 01:41:38 +0000

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NASDAQ Now in Bear Territory
It was a big down day, in fact there was even more carnage in the NASDAQ. Today is the day that NASDAQ finally slipped into bear market territory. So, Wall Street's been calling this a correction the whole way, well now the NASDAQ is down 22%, joining the Russell 2000, down 26% and the Transports down 24%. Those 3 indexes are now officially in bear markets.
It's All a Matter of Time
But what does that mean? That means when the NASDAQ was only down 5%, it was in a bear market. That's exactly what I was saying. They don't acknowledge the bear market until it's down 20%, but that doesn't mean it's not in a bear market. It just means nobody wants to admit that it's a bear market. Now we still have 2 indexes that are not in bear markets, the S&P 500 is now down almost 18% and the Dow Jones is down just under 17%. So Wall Street maybe can cling to the notion that these indexes are not in bear markets because they're not down 20%. Look, it's all a matter of time. As I said on the last podcast, I thought that the NASDAQ would be in a bear market by the end of the week and that's exactly what happened, and I'm pretty sure that the S&P 500 and the Dow are going to join this party before the end of the year.
Huge Bear Market in FAANG Stocks
Today's decline started off as a rally. The Dow was up about 400 points this morning, before it collapsed. So we basically reversed yesterday's decline and then we got clobbered and took out new lows. The NASDAQ was down 3%. That was the weakest index, and it was led down by the FAANG stocks, which are now down collectively, on average, 35%. This is just generally in the last few months. So this is a huge bear market in the FAANG stocks. The worst of the FAANG's is Facebook, which was down big again today, like 5 of 6%. Facebook is now down 43%. Second place, is Netflix, down 42%, then Amazon down 33%, and lastly, Google, which is down only 23%. Google just finally went into a bear market this week. If you look at the charts, there is nothing but air - there is a long way down between where we are now and where any kind of trend lines or support lines could be drawn.

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The Fed Put a Fork in the Stock Market – Ep. 427

Thu, 20 Dec 2018 01:27:38 +0000

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Seventh Rate Hike since Trump's Election
As expected, earlier today, the Federal Reserve nudged up the Fed Funds rate by another quarter point. The Fed is now targeting their rate at 2.25 - 2.5%. So the range is somewhere in the middle, there. This marks the sixth time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates since Donald Trump has been President, and the seventh time that the Fed has hiked rates since Trump was elected. Remember, during the entirety of Obama's 8-year Presidency, the Fed raised interest rates only once.
A 900-point Selloff
What the markets did not expect was the dovish hike to be so hawkish. In fact, the minute I heard the language, I was surprised that the Dow didn't immediately sell off, more than it did. It had a bit of a bounce before it sold off, the Dow Jones ended up down just over 350 points. The selloff from the high to the low was just under 900 points. Earlier in the day the Dow had rallied up about 300 points because there was a lot of anticipation that even though the Fed was going to hike rates today, that it would indicate it would pause. That was on neutral - that it wasn't really planning any more rate hikes for 2019, and would just play it by ear. It was going to be data dependent.
Dow's Worst December since 1932
But what the Federal Reserve said in their official statement that accompanied the news was that they had reduced their expectation for rate hikes for next year from 3 to just 2 anticipated rate hikes. Now, that may be considered dovish, but it did not nearly meet the expectations of the market. It was expecting something much more than that. When I heard that, I thought, "The market's going to get killed." And it did go down but I think a lot more of the carnage is going to happen probably later in the week and next week. In fact, the market is now down so much that the Dow is having its worst December since 1932. Of course, that was the beginning of the Great Depression.

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A December to Remember – Ep. 426

Tue, 18 Dec 2018 02:52:53 +0000

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Two Podcasts in One Day!
For those of you who were worried that I wasn't going to be able to do a podcast today to talk about the stock market or the economy because I already did a podcast earlier this morning, well, you're wrong! Here I am, doing my second podcast of the day. This may be an unprecedented event. I don't know if I've ever recorded 2 podcasts in the same day.
Don't Miss This Morning's Podcast on the Unconstitutionality of Obamacare
The reason I did the earlier podcast was because I wanted to address the topic of the Federal court in Texas striking down the ACA individual mandate and rendering the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional. I would encourage you to listen to that podcast if you are interested in this topic or the Constitution to listen to it in its entirety.
Not a Crash, but Regular Volatility
But let's talk about another big down Monday. As I suggested when I did my podcast on Friday, I'm still thinking that there is a possibility of a Black Monday type event this year. I said we were running out of Mondays because we only had 3 left, and now one down. This, again was not a crash, but the Dow did close down better than 500 points. At one point, we were down over 600. You know, these big drops are not becoming a recurring event - they add up, right?
Worst December Start Since 1980
If you look at the charts, we look extremely vulnerable to a big drop. I read that already, we're off to the worse start for a December since 1980. That was really the end of the last bear market. We had a bear market that went from 1966 to 1982, so the last time we had a December this week was at the tail end of that long-term secular bear market.

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Why Obamacare Is Unconstitutional – Ep. 425

Mon, 17 Dec 2018 18:03:12 +0000

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Decision May Well Stand up under Appeal
A Federal Judge in the state of Texas, U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor, has ruled that the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, is unconstitutional, and therefore the law would be null and void, that it would be struck down. Of course this will be the subject of appeal, so whether or not this decision is going to hold is still an open question. But if you listen to the way it is being reported in the media, the reaction from a lot of the people, particularly the Democrats, is that they are accusing this judge of being partisan, being a judicial activist, that this is a ridiculous crazy decision and that it will clearly be overturned. All this is a bunch of nonsense. The judge in this case is completely correct. Obamacare was unconstitutional before this decision.
The Rationale Behind Judge's Ruling
This particular judge focused on one aspect of the law, but there are so many reasons this law is unconstitutional. But for the purpose of this podcast is to focus on the rationale behind the judge's ruling and why I believe the decision is valid and may, in fact stand up under appeal. Under the new makeup of the Supreme Court, some of the new justices could easily side with the original dissent to form a new majority now that the law itself has been changed based on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is the basis of this particular decision.
Read Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution
I did an earlier podcast on whether or not the U.S. government could require American citizens to purchase health insurance. Now the theory was that they had the right to do this under what is now known as the Commerce Clause (Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution), one of the single most understood Constitutional clauses which has enabled the government to get away with all sorts of things that the Constitution does not authorize. This is where all the powers to the Federal government are delegated. One of the powers is to regulate commerce with foreign nations and among the several states and with the Indian tribes. That's it.
Constitution Allows Federal Government to Regulate Commerce, not Companies
Now based on that clause, you have had Supreme Courts validate government regulation of companies because the government claims that since those companies engage in interstate commerce, that it falls within that power, that Congress can regulate these companies because the company is engaged in commerce. Of course, that's not what it says. The Constitution doesn't say the Federal government has the right to regulate companies that engage in interstate commerce, it just says it can regulate the commerce, itself. The commerce has to do with the flow of goods and services over state borders. So this is an unconstitutional expansion of Federal power. The Federal government does not have the constitutional authority to regulate businesses simply because these businesses happen to engage in interstate commerce.
Federal Regulation of Business Outside of Constitutional Authority
But that was even the camel's nose under the tent, because then it got worse. Then what happened is companies that were regulated that did no interstate commerce were saying, "this law does not apply to me because I don't engage in interstate commerce." But the Supreme Court said that the Federal government under the Commerce Clause can regulate companies that do not even engage in interstate commerce if they can show that those companies somehow effect interstate commerce, even though they themselves do not participate in it. So now,

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Under Socialism Even Bad Sex Is Good – Ep. 424

Sat, 15 Dec 2018 01:07:31 +0000

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Technicals Portend Bear Market in Small Caps and Transports
The Dow managed to finish off this Friday with a loss of less than 500 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down just 496.87 points. So I guess the headline can be: "We Avoided a 500 Point Decline!". At one point, the Dow was better than 550 points in the red. But, when you close that close to your low of the day, within 10 percentage points of the low, that is a very weak close. The Dow finished the day weak, the week weak, and it is a very weak month. In fact, the weakest indexes continue to be the Russell 2000 - I've been talking about the weakness in the small caps. That index is now down better than 19% from its peak just about 4 months ago. So we're almost officially in bear market territory. We'll probably be there by Monday, judging by the technicals.
Possible Black Monday?
The other index that is leading the way down is the Dow Jones Transports. This index is now down better than 18% from its peak. Both the Transports and the Russell 2000 are at the lowest levels of the year. They took out the lows from the earlier decline that happened at the beginning of the year, so the Dow and the NASDAQ have yet to take out those lows set earlier in the year, but I believe they will. In fact, they may even take them out before the end of the year. Monday, again, is looking extremely weak. I've been talking about this all quarter, where I think there is a potential for a Black Monday type of event. Obviously, we're running out of Mondays this year. Both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve fall on a Monday and there will probably be very light trading going on, so potentially the markets could see a lot of selling if there are not enough people there to buy.
Appearance on Countdown to the Closing Bell this Monday
I will be on Fox Business News, The Countdown to the Closing Bell this Monday, with Liz Claman. Maybe if I get lucky we'll have a Black Monday on a day that I happen to be on television. I will be there for the final hour of the day and often times, the biggest part of the sell-off on big down days happens at the very last hour, so I'll be live on Fox Business for that potential big drop. Make sure to tune in live.

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The Fed Hiked Itself into Insolvency – Ep. 423

Thu, 13 Dec 2018 01:02:55 +0000

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Mainstream Forecasts Incorporating Recession
We are in the early stages of this bubble popping. That's why, if you look now at a lot of the mainstream forecasts, all of a sudden, they're all incorporating recession. The probability of recession is now very high over the next couple of years. I read J.P. Morgan now is saying that there is a 70% probability that the U.S. is in recession by the end of 2020. In fact, most of the forecasts I'm looking at now predict that the U.S. will either enter recession next year or in the following year. This is a huge change from where people were just a few months ago, where there were no recessions as far as the eye can see. Now we're staring them in the face.
Third Consecutive Drop in Small Business Confidence
One thing that really hasn't changed so much is that you have all this optimism that still abounds. It doesn't make sense to me that people could be so optimistic about an economy that they concede is so close to recession. Now, I think on Tuesday we did get a drop in small business confidence, it's the third consecutive monthly drop, and three months ago, small business confidence hit an all-time record high. But if you have more of these small business owners thinking that we are a year away from recession, in fact less than a year if you think recession is going to start in 2019 - we're going to be in 2019 in a few weeks. So, if you think recession is so close, how much longer can you remain so confident?

The Fed Doesn't Have Recession in its Forecast
Now, of course, the Fed doesn't have recession in its forecast; not even close. The National debt is careening toward $22 trillion and these guys are putting out their rosy estimates for economic growth. They're not starting to factor in these recession forecasts that are becoming more and more mainstream.

Fed Funds Rate in Negative Territory in Real Terms
The problem for the Federal Reserve is that they are trying to keep this bubble from imploding, but the task is impossible because enough air has already come out of it. Interest rates have already risen to the point where the camel's back has been broken. The Fed has now backtracked into admitting that we're just slightly below "neutral". We're one more rate hike away from "neutral" even though one more rate hike will still leave the Fed Funds Rate in negative territory in real terms, not in nominal terms. If you accept the government's inflation numbers and we got CPI and PPI numbers that came out yesterday and today - if you look at the core, we've got the hottest core in 7 years.

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A Bubble That Will Live in Infamy – Ep. 422

Sat, 08 Dec 2018 00:51:24 +0000

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Pearl Harbor Day 2018: A Very Interesting Technical Day
Today is December 7th, a day that will live in infamy. Unless you are a Millennial who was educated in the U.S. public school system. In which case you have absolutely no idea what happened on December 7th 1941. You've probably never heard of Pearl Harbor, you certainly don't know where Pearl Harbor is located. Maybe you've heard of World War II, but a lot of them haven't. Even those who have heard of World War II probably have no idea who fought, or even who won.
As Goes the NASDAQ, so Goes the Rest of the Market
Today, December 7th maybe won't live in infamy, but it seems to me it was a very interesting technical day in the U.S. stock market, which should give the bulls on the stock market something to think about. I think the action today, particularly in the NASDAQ, (I think as goes the NASDAQ, so goes the rest of the market) but that action was particularly significant.
An "Outside Day"
One of the more reliable technical patterns is an "Outside Day". An outside day is when you trade above and below the highs and lows of the previous day, and then close above or below one of those lows. It's an outside day even if you close somewhere in the middle. An "Inside Day" is when you trade within the range of the previous day; you don't take out the high or the low. But the most significant type of an outside day is an outside day where you close above or below the previous day's high or low. That would be called an "Outside Reversal Day". It' s a positive if you could take out the previous day's low, but then rally and then close above the previous day's high.
The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ Took out Yesterday's Lows
What the NASDAQ did today was the opposite of that. The NASDAQ rallied this morning on, I guess the weaker than expected jobs numbers and took out the highs from yesterday. In fact, all of the major markets - the Dow, the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 - they all took out yesterday's highs. But then they came crashing down, The Dow did not take out yesterday's low - so the Dow did not have an outside day. But both the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ took out yesterday's lows.

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The Fed’s Policy Mistake Started with Greenspan – Ep. 421

Fri, 07 Dec 2018 02:07:20 +0000

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Dow Volatility Started with Huawei News
We had another very volatile day today on Wall Street, and it really got started last night with the news of the arrest in Canada of the CFO of the Chinese company, Huawei. Her father is the founder of the company and a very prominent, powerful and influential man in China and this set the mood. the Dow futures dropped initially, I think about 500 points as soon as the story broke. Obviously, anything that may throw a monkey wrench in the supposed deal that was made over dinner, mano a mano, down in South America between Trump and Xi. So this caused some problems.

Dow Down About 780 on the Lows
The market clawed its way back; I think we were down maybe 200 and change, but then we started selling off early in the morning and when the Dow Jones opened up, we were down maybe about 400-500 very quickly and we sold off almost down to 800 points. The Dow was down about 780 points on the lows. This is following yesterday's market holiday honoring the memory of the late President George Herbert Walker Bush. That day of mourning, however did not do anything to stop the carnage on Wall Street.

Market Clawed its Way Back on Fed "Wait and See" News

What it took was an article that came out later in the day in the Wall Street Journal. That article basically said that the Fed was considering a new "Wait and See" strategy after the December rate hike. And the odds of a December rate hike, which are coming up, the probability is about 75%, which is lower than it was, so there is still a chance that the Fed does not hike in December. But according to the Wall Street Journal doesn't take place immediately. This is after the December hike. So for 2019, the article suggests that maybe there'll be even fewer rate hikes than the markets believed.
Debt Service Costs Creating a Drag
Everything was weak until we got this news from the Fed that turned a lot of the tech stocks around and got the market moving higher. I don't think this does anything, because, it doesn't take the December rate hike off the table, and if the Fed raises rates in December, then all the problems that already exist because of higher rates, will be bigger. This means mortgage rates will be going up. Debt service costs will go up. One of the big drags on the economy now is that debt service costs have gone up. So if the Fed adds to that pain by following through with another rate hike in December, it will be just another weight on the economy's back. The Fed is still talking about raising rates in 2019 - they're saying one more, and we're going to wait and see.

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A Nation Can’t Tax Itself Rich – Ep. 420

Wed, 05 Dec 2018 02:59:06 +0000

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No Relief
As I said on yesterday's podcast, I did not we had a "Wall Street Relief Rally", based on the stand down or truce in the trade war following the backtracking by the Fed on the potential number of rate hikes and the distance we were from neutrality.
Interest Rates Anything But Neutral
By the way, yesterday I referred to the rate hikes as normal; I should have said neutral - obviously what we have now is not even close to being normal. The Fed is trying to convince us that the new "neutral" rate of interest is now lower than what was considered neutral in the past. Why is that? Because we have such an enormous amount of debt now, the Fed has to keep interest rates much lower in order to achieve neutrality. But, of course, if the Fed needs to keep interest rates low, it's not neutral. Those low interest rates are actually stimulative. What the Fed is trying to do is use artificially low interest rates to prop up the economy and then claim that those artificially low rates are neutral. They're anything but neutral. They are accommodative. This is cheap money, this easy money, and ultimately it is going to set off massive inflation.
A Terrible Day, Technically
Nobody seems to understand that yet, but that's what's coming. People are continuing to be complacent despite today's substantial drop in the value of stocks. Today the Dow was down just shy of 800 points - 799 points. At the lows, it was down over 800. We didn't close on the exact low; maybe they're going to somehow claim that that was a rally or something - the fact that we closed slightly off the lows. This was a terrible day, technically, and in fact I mentioned again on yesterday's podcast, the fact that the market made the highs on the open - it did not trade very well, and it looked to me that we would fall down. I did not know that we would drop this much this quickly, but it doesn't surprise me.

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Trump Backs down on Tariffs – Ep. 419

Tue, 04 Dec 2018 02:44:50 +0000

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Interest Rates and Trade War
The two things that everybody seems to agree were weighing down the markets were the Fed's relentless drive to normalize interest rates, and figure out where "normal" was, and, of course, the trade war - the threat of additional tariffs overhanging the markets. So I think it was pretty clear to President Trump who is hanging his hat on the stock market, has decided that the stock market performance is the best barometer of his Presidency. So the fact that the stock market was falling was really a big problem for the President so he had to do what he could to try to get the stock market to go back up.
Fed Restated "Normal"
The first part of the two-pronged attack was the interest rates. Whether he was able to convince Powell to change his tune or whether Trump just got lucky and the Fed decided to backtrack, as I mentioned in my last podcast, the Fed has now said, "We are just below normal." Meaning that we only need one more rate hike before we get to normal, whereas in the past the Fed had said that normal was quite a ways away, and that the Fed would have to raise rates many, many more times in order to achieve normal. And of course, anybody who knows anything about the history of interest rates would have to agree that where we are now, at 2% is historically abnormal. It obviously could not be considered neutral based on any kind of past precedent. So the fact that the market was able to backtrack so quickly really threw a bone that the market and Donald Trump badly needed..
Trade Tensions Weighing Down the Market
But the other factor that was weighing down the market was all the trade tensions, and all the talk about the tariffs that were going to be imposed in less than a month. The first of next year we were going to get these 25% across-the-board tariffs.

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The Fed Flinches, Powell Put in Play – Ep. 418

Fri, 30 Nov 2018 00:47:10 +0000

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The Fed's Game of Chicken
The big news was yesterday, when Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, basically flinched. I've been talking about the game of chicken that the Federal Reserve has been playing with the markets. The way the game of chicken goes, is the markets keep moving lower and the Fed keeps talking about how great the economy is and how many rate hikes are coming in the future. Somebody has to flinch - somebody has to blink. It's like you have these two automobiles driving toward each other, and there's going to be a major crash unless somebody turns the wheel.It seems like it was Jerome Powell who turned the wheel first, and, in fact, was chicken.
The Fed Is Worried About All Asset Prices, Not Just the Stock Market
As much as the Fed wants to pretend they don't care about the stock market - they absolutely care about the stock market. They are tremendously worried about a weakening stock market. Remember the goal of quantitative easing was to lift the stock market - to create a wealth effect and it was that stock market-created wealth that was going to drive consumption and the economy. And it wasn't just the stock market; it was also the real estate market. So the Fed is worried about all asset prices, not just the stock market. Clearly the real estate market is in even more trouble than the stock market, but both of these markets were headed lower, and I think that is what really prompted the Fed to blink - to swerve in this game of chicken.
Powell Suddenly Dials Back the Narrative
Now, of course you also had President Trump pressuring the Fed, you had Mnuchin putting some pressure on the Fed, which I think should also be a worrying factor. We don't really know. There was a lot of speculation about what was behind the Fed's change of heart - change in policy. After all, up until yesterday, even when you had the Vice Chair speak, the tone was very hawkish: "Yep, we've got lots of rate hikes coming." And now all of a sudden, Powell dials it all back. Basically, what Powell said that convinced people that maybe there will not be as many rate hikes in the future, is, "We're just below neutral. We're almost there, maybe one more rate hike ought to do it."
Is 2.25% to 2.5% Neutral?
First of all, we're still at 2%, so that would imply neutral is 2.25% or 2.5%. That really shows you how low the neutrality bar has been lowered given the enormity of the debt bubble that have. Once upon a time, and not too long ago, a 2.5% Fed Funds rate would have been considered highly stimulative.

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Two Wrongs Never Make a Right – Ep. 417

Wed, 28 Nov 2018 01:59:10 +0000

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25% Tariffs Will Inflict Rather Substantial Damage to the U.S. Economy
The Dow Jones managed to finish the day up just over 100 points - I think that was about the high of the day, and we erased a loss that at one point was better than 200 points. I think a potential catalyst was a talk given by Larry Kudlow earlier in the day in which Kudlow raised some optimism over the possibility of a deal with China that would, of course avert the 25% across the board tariffs that are going to go into effect at the beginning of the new year. Of course, there is always the possibility of a resolution, and I still thin that there is going to be some type of face-saving resolution on both sides to avert these 25% tariffs. I do think that they will inflict rather substantial damage to the U.S. economy, which is already rapidly decelerating, despite everybody's refusal to admit that (including the Federal Reserve, and I'll get to some comments later in the podcast).
Trump Is Pulling the Strings
But I don't think the President can risk the 25% tariffs as much as he wants to posture that the U.S. economy is in great shape, and we are in a better position than China to weather any kind of short-term damage that might be created by the tariffs. I don't think the President is eager to test that hypothesis. I think he would rather take credit for averting the crisis, even if the crisis was a matter of his own doing. He throws out the potential for the crisis, but of course, the only reason why the crisis is dangling in front of us is because Trump is pulling the strings.
It's Impossible to Consume What Has Not Been Produced
To the extent that the Chinese can produce all these products, they don't need America to consume them; they can consume the products themselves. Once the products are produced, consumption is a foregone conclusion. It's easy to consume what's been produced; it's impossible to consume what has not been produced.

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As Bubbles Burst the Malinvestments Are Exposed – Ep. 416

Thu, 22 Nov 2018 02:17:55 +0000

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Dow Could Not Hold Onto the Gain
After yesterday's, I think 550 point drop in the Dow, the market bounced back a bit today. I think at one point earlier in the day the Dow managed to gain over 200 points, but it could not hold on to that gain. It closed down just under one point. Very weak technical action for today's pre-Thanksgiving bounce. Normally, the markets are up on the day before Thanksgiving, and in general, they were. The other indexes all managed to close in the black, although considerably off their intra-day highs.
Decline in Retail Touted as Excuse, But It's Just a Bear Market
The XRT, which is an index of retailers (I talked about that on this podcast before) snapped an 8-day losing streak. More bad news came out from retailers yesterday; that was part of the reason that you saw the big sell-off in the Dow. That was the excuse; I don't think the market needs a reason to go down. It's a bear market, and that's what bear markets do - they go down. Of course people who don't know that they're in a bear market make excuses to try to rationalize why the market is going down because they don't want to admit that they are, in fact, in a bear market.
Dead Cat Bounces All Around
Everything bounced today, I guess dead cat bounces all around. Even Bitcoin managed a rally. In fact yesterday, Bitcoin got as low as $4,050. So it held $4,000. Of course, you have people saying, "Ah Ha! $4,000 is the bottom!" I doubt it. It makes sense that there'd be some support at a round number. I doubt that this is THE low. It may not last more than a day or two, given the momentum in this decline.
Malinvestments are a Classic Part of Every Bubble
Remember I have talked about all the malinvestments that are taking place. When a lot of people argued with me about why Bitcoin was going to succeed, they pointed out that all this capital was going into the industry; all this infrastructure was being built up, and so therefore Bitcoin was going to work because it had all this infrastructure behind it. My argument was always that infrastructure represents malinvestment. That is a classic part of every bubble.

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The Confidence Bubble Has Popped – Ep. 415

Tue, 20 Nov 2018 03:05:12 +0000

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FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the Market
Another Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for the market to crash. Today wasn't a Black Monday; certainly the percentage decline wasn't out of the ordinary. Although the FAANG stocks, in particular, there was a big bite taken out of those stocks, and it wasn't just the bite that was taken out of the Apple, which was some of the news that precipitated today's decline. A big down day nonetheless.
NASDAQ Having one of the Worst Quarters Ever
The Dow Jones down just shy of 400 points - 395, or 1.5%. On the lows, we were down better than 500 points. The Russell 2000 closed down just over 30 points - that's a 2% point drop. But the big drop was the NASDAQ - down 219 points, just over 3%, pretty close to the lows of the day. The NASDAQ is now down 12.5% so far this quarter - probably one of the worst quarters ever.

I think the only thing that may slow down the decline is if the Fed skips the December rate hike. Although, even that may not be enough. If the Fed doesn't hike in December, the markets might get worried that the Fed knows something and that the economy is much weaker and therefore earnings will be much weaker, so, to me, i think if the market's going to get a stay of execution from the Fed, it's actually going to have to be a rate cut.
Homebuilder Sentiment Lower Than Expected
There are plenty of other data points that are coming out, both corporate news and news about the overall economy, In particular, today, that I think weighed heavily on the markets. The first one being the Homebuilder Sentiment for November. That came out at 10am. So the markets were already trading based on another piece of news which I will get to. Last month, Homebuilder Sentiment's number was at 68. Now anything above 50 is supposedly O.K. It still means they're optimistic. And the consensus was for Homebuilder Sentiment to stay at 68. Instead, it plunged all the way down to 60. In fact, the range of forecasts went from a low of 66 to a high of 69. That drop, from what I've read, that is bigger than any drop we've had during any month of the last bust that led to the 2008 Financial Crisis. We've never seen a rate of decline like this. Obviously that scared the market. This is just one of the first sentiment indicators that is giving way. Obviously, home sales are imploding so you might expect builders to be a little bit nervous about this, even though they are still somewhat optimistic. But remember, this whole rally is built on confidence and the confidence is going to start going everywhere, In addition to the Homebuilders, you're going to see business confidence, particularly small business confidence, which was at a record high.
Apple Now in a Bear Market
But there was some other particularly bad news that came in before the opening bell, and that one was from Apple. They said they will be cutting production because of lower sales. That decision trickles down, effecting a lot of companies who count on those orders from Apple. The price of Apple is down by 4% on the day. But if you now look at the total drop - just over 20% - and that means the way Wall Street scores it, Apple is now in a bear market.
Facebook Led the Market Down
Of course, not just Apple, the FAANG's in general, the market took a bite out of those guys today. Facebook leading the market down - down another 5.5% on the day. That brings the total decline for this bear market to 40%. In second place is NETFLIX, that was down 5.5%, today so pretty much neck and neck with Facebook. But since its peak, NETFLIX is down 36%.

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Even Jim Cramer Knows More Than the Fed – Ep. 414

Sat, 17 Nov 2018 02:32:45 +0000

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Optimism Over No Tariffs Fueling Market Move
Donald Trump, I think, was the reason the markets ended up finishing in the black today, at least most of the major indexes. In fact, the only index that was down on the day was the NASDAQ - the NASDAQ was the only major index that was down on the week, thanks to weakness in tech stock, in particular, the FANG stocks. The comments that Trump made today basically gave hope to some people that potentially 25% across the board tariffs on all Chinese imports may not go into effect at the beginning of next year, which is the threat. If the Chinese ant Trump don't come to an agreement, then those tariffs are going to hit.
Tariffs Are the Stick
Apparently the tariffs are the stick that is going to be brandished by Trump, and he is going to use it to hit the Chinese over the head. But the threat of this big stick is supposedly going to bring the Chinese to the table, and there will be a deal that is favorable to the United States. Of course, if these tariffs actually go into effect, the people who are really going to be hit with the stick are going to be Americans. It's going to be American consumers who have to pay 25% more for everything they buy, and it's going to be American retailers who, of course, are going to sell a lot less stuff, because, if they have to raise prices by 25%, sales are going to collapse.
Fed Hinting that "Data Dependent" May Signal Slowdown in Rates
We had a couple of Fed guys out today -Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida - was interviewed today on CNBC by Steve Liesman - I happened to catch that interview, and was listening closely to what Clarida had to say. To me, he almost admitted that when the Fed pretended to be "data dependent" early on, they really weren't data dependent at all. They were just raising interest rates because they wanted to get them higher. They were afraid of getting caught with rates too close to zero in the beginning of the next recession, so they wanted to re-load that gun, so they wanted to get interest rates higher. They kept saying they were data dependent, but I never really thought they were. Once they started to raise rates, they were just on auto pilot. But now, Clarida seems to open the door to the possibility that maybe, some of the rate hikes that we think are coming aren't going to come, because he talked about how now, the Fed can be more data dependent than it was in the past.
Optimism Among Warning Signals
Where in the past, we talked about being data dependent, but we really weren't, but now we actually can be because now we're closer to neutral. And since we're now closer to that number we can take the data more seriously, meaning that if the data comes out weaker than we expect, well maybe we won't raise rates as much as we think. and I think Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was also out today making similar comments that were initially taken as Dovish by the markets, because he was leaving the door open, apparently to the fact that the Fed may not deliver as many rate hikes as the markets believe. Both of these guys are extremely optimistic and upbeat about the U.S. economy. As if none of the bad news that is happening around them matter. You've got the semi-conductors, you've got the retailers, you've got the autos, you've got the home builders. All these sectors are blowing up one after another and they guys at the Fed are thinking "No Problem!"
Cramer Exceeding Very Low Bar Set By Fed
Also today, Jim Kramer, on CNBC, was out there critical of the Fed, basically saying that these guys don't know what they are talking about and that he's smarter than them, and they should pay attention to what he's saying. Kramer may in fact know more than the Fed,

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Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop – Ep. 413

Thu, 15 Nov 2018 00:39:52 +0000

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Very Negative Technical Action
We had another roller coaster ride in the stock market today, with the Dow Jones ending down about 200 points, but that was well off the lows of the day. I think we were down about 350 points, or close to it, at the lows. But, more interesting, we were up over 200 points earlier this morning. So this is very negative technical action, when you have these rallies and then close negative. In fact, we were down another 100 points yesterday on the Dow, and today, we came to within, I think 10 points of taking out yesterday's high - and then we not only crashed below yesterday's low, but we closed below yesterday's low. So another very weak day.
A Change in Name Only
I think one of the catalysts for the late afternoon rally, before the selloff, was all of the headlines coming out of Europe - the UK, regarding a Brexit deal, and I think that caused some people to buy stocks. The dollar actually sold off. It was down already; it sold off some more on that news coming out of Europe. But I don't know if this deal is going to fly . we'll see. I read through some parts of the deal, and to me, it looks like Theresa May is trying to borrow a page from President Donald Trump. Basically, what she is doing, is she is trying to rename the union that the UK has with Europe . If you read what they are going to sign on to, it is going to be some kind of trade pact that really kind of subjects the UK to all the rules and regulations that prompted them to want to get out of the European Union in the first place. So they're going to Brexit, but they're not actually going anywhere. Kind of like renaming NAFTA the USMCA . Basically, you're re-branding what you had before and claiming a victory. Maybe, politically speaking, May wants to try to honor the will of the voters by saying we accomplished Brexit, but basically not change anything. It's just a change in name only.

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Share Buyback Chickens Coming Home to Roost – Ep. 412

Tue, 13 Nov 2018 01:46:19 +0000

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Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One Day
As I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains. The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day. On my podcast on Friday I said that we would surrender the remainder of the gains this week and we did it in the first day of the week. The NASDAQ actually had an even bigger decline; down over 200 points - 206.03 to be exact -down 2.78%. The Russell 2000 was also down 1.98% - just over 30 points - just shy of 2%. The S&P 500 was almost down 2% - 1.97% - 54.79 points .
NASDAQ: Usual Suspects
The usual suspects, of course, having some of the big declines. Apple computer came out with worse than expected earnings last week- down another 5.45% today - down 194. It is now below 250 - This is a new low for Apple. A lot of the other computer stocks got beat up today: NVIDIA down 7.7%, Broadcom down 6.5&, so the entire tech sector really got beaten up. Of course, Swiss National Bank was a big loser; they are one of the largest investors in U.S. Technology stocks. I did read an article, though, that said that they trimmed their portfolios rather significantly before the October decline, so the Swiss National Bank did not quite take it on the chin as badly as might otherwise have been the case. But, potentially, the news that the Swiss Central Bank was paring back its portfolio could be part of the negative news that is currently weighing down the market.
$15 Billion of G.E. Shareholder Wealth up in Smoke
Looking at stocks like G.E. - have been talking about G.E. on this podcast for quite some time. It is down again another 7% today, closing below $8 - $7.99 - the low price on the day was $7.72. This is a perfect example of what happens when the buyback chickens come home to roost. General Electric was buying back a lot of stock when money was cheap. The company is loaded up with debt - $45 - 50 billion of debt. They also have $20 billion + of underfunded pension liabilities which I think are going to be more under funded when the market goes down. When money was cheap, yes, it was easy to borrow money and buy back stock; the price of the stock was going up. Look at 2016 alone. I think that was the biggest year of buy backs, although they have been buying back every year, but in 2016, G.E. bought back about $20 billion worth of stock, and the stock was around $30. It is now under $8. The stock is down 75%. That means if they bought $20 billion worth of stock, that stock now has a market value of just $5 billion. $15 billion of shareholder wealth up in smoke!

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Rising Prices Reflect Inflation Not Growth – Ep. 411

Sat, 10 Nov 2018 01:19:56 +0000

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Dead Cat Bounce Flattens Out
The Dow Jones was down a little over 200 today, closing back below 26,000. NASDAQ composite down 124 - that's a bigger percentage decline, 1.7%, approximately. The Composite is being led lower by the tech stocks, particularly the FANG stocks once again taking a bite out of the market. The markets, though, were positive on the week, thanks to that huge relief rally that took place on Wednesday following the results of the midterm elections on Tuesday. But as I said on my Wednesday podcast, I thought that relief rally was just another dead cat bounce, that the fundamentals and the technicals still looked horrible for the U.S. stock market. I expected that rally to reverse, and of course that process had already begun Thursday and Friday. I think it will continue next week and I think the rest of those gains will be surrendered.
Higher than Expected PPI Sparked Sell-Off
The catalyst for today's selloff was a much hotter than expected Producer Price Index number. The PPI was up .6% in 1 month, which is a big gain. In fact this is the biggest jump in the PPI in 6 years. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are up 2.8%. The market was looking for an increase half that size: .3%, Even year-over-year, when you strip out food and energy we were still up 2.6%, which is considerably above the 2% level that the Fed is looking at. Of course, the Fed is looking at consumer prices, not producer prices, but of course, nobody can consume what is not produced. These are really wholesale prices and of course they are going to get passed on to the consumer, so consumer prices are headed higher.
The Markets Don't Get It
But, again, the markets don't get it. Gold dropped the minute this number came out, gold dumped about $10. It was already down on the day, and then it sold off and never recovered. On the other hand, bonds were relatively stable when the number came out. Maybe rates ticked up just a smidgen, but actually bonds rallied on the day. Now maybe the weak stock market had a little bit to do with it, but the irony of it is that you get these numbers that show much more than expected inflation, and what do investors do? They sell gold and they buy U.S. treasuries. Now, that is the worse thing to do if there's more inflation. Gold is an inflation hedge. So, if inflation is picking up, you would want to own gold to protect yourself from inflation. On the other hand, the one asset that suffers the most, where the most value is eroded away because of inflation is a bond. A bond is specifically payments of cash in the future, and the more inflation we have, the less that future cash is worth.

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Divided Government Will Produce Larger Deficits – Ep. 410

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 01:05:50 +0000

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Relief Rally Post-Midterms
The elections are over and the Blue Wave was averted and the Dow Jones rose 545 points today to celebrate that fact and the NASDAQ was up 194 points, 2.64%; Russell 2000 up 26 points, about 1.67% . Now you may be wondering why there was such a big rise in the stock market based on an outcome that was pretty much expected. The Republicans lost the House of Representatives, and that was something that was widely anticipated by the markets. But the loss wasn't that big; they lost 26 seats. I think 23 was the number that the Democrats had to pick up. But I think there was some concern that the Republicans may have lost the Senate - instead they actually picked up, I think 3 seats as of now, in the Senate - increasing their margin. This is only the third time in 100 years where that's happened, where you've had the incumbent party lose House seats but gain Senate seats.
Obama's Midterm House Loss: 63 Seats
But it is amazing that the press was trying to hold this out as some kind of repudiation of his policies: "You lost the House of Representatives". Big deal! Obama lost the house of Representatives during his first midterms in 2010. That was one of the biggest disasters for an incumbent since Roosevelt. Obama lost 63 house seats. Not 26 - remember the Tea Party? That was all 2010. Trump did so much better than Obama. In fact, the average loss for a midterm in the House is 37 seats. Trump's loss of 26 was much better than average, but you wouldn't know that from listening to the Media. But most impressive was the 3 seats gained in the Senate. Barack Obama lost 6 seats during his first midterm elections. That's a 9-seat difference between what Trump was able to accomplish and Obama's accomplishment.
Economy-Stimulating Tax Cuts Less Likely
I think the reason that the dollar was weaker is the narrative is that since the Republicans no longer have control of the House of Representatives that it is less likely that we will get more tax cuts - at least the tax cuts that would be stimulative to the economy.

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Vote Against Socialism and Identity Politics – Ep. 409

Mon, 05 Nov 2018 13:34:48 +0000

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An Advanced Auction on the Sale of Stolen Goods
Tomorrow is Election Day, or as H.L. Mencken once described the process, "An advanced auction on the sale of stolen goods". My wife has been bugging me for some time to urge people who listen to my podcast to go out and vote on Election Day. I think she's prepared to blame me if there are any close races, either for the House, Senate or even for Governor that end up going to the Democrats - if I do not urge my listeners to vote against that wave, somehow it will be my fault. So I urge all of the people who listen to my podcasts to actually go out and vote this Tuesday on Election Day.
Lesser of Two Evils
In most cases, our votes are not even going to matter. In fact in most cases it is a matter of voting between the lesser of two evils. Even though the lesser of two evils is still evil, it is "lesser", and when it comes to evil, I guess lesser is better. In some cases there are actually some good candidates who are running. Sometimes, however, when good candidates actually get elected and get into the cesspool that is Washington, D.C., a lot of the values that led them into politics go out the window if they want to stay there. You can have good intentions when you get to Washington, you can be principled, and you can say, "I'm going there to make the country a better place" but ultimately once you get there, everything changes.
Politics Ahead of Principle
In fact, when it comes to elections, and politics, the worst candidate usually wins. If you are a candidate or an elected official, and you are making decisions that are economically sound, and that are in the best interest of the nation or your constituency, and if your opponent is making decisions based on politics, which are likely to result in a larger number of votes, Which decisions are likely to land me money from special interests? If you're campaigning on principle, and your opponent is a practical politician, who's going to win? Even if you win a few elections, you're eventually going to lose. And the politicians who are i office the longest, are most successful at putting politics ahead of principle.

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Jobs Are Another Bubble About to Pop – Ep. 408

Sat, 03 Nov 2018 00:24:09 +0000

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Futures Rallied after Drop on Apple News
I want to get to the nonfarm payroll number. This is the big number, and, maybe, because the initial number was good, the market rallied. Although, I think the real reason that the market rallied in the morning is because we had a big rally in Asia last night. There were some rumors that there would be some type of trade deal between China and the United States, and when that rumor came out, everybody bid up these Asian stocks. So the U.S. stock market, U.S. futures got bid up. So initially U.S. futures were way down on the Apple news, but then, when this rumors came out about a trade deal, then the markets rallied.
Hopes for Trade Deal with China
Part of the reason that people wanted to believe that there might be a trade deal is because everybody knows the election is coming up on Tuesday, and maybe the President is looking to do something between now and then in order to: a) make the market rally, but b) be able to claim victory. Like" aha! another deal like the USMCA - I got rid of NAFTA, and we have this new deal which is basically the same deal we had before, just with a different name, but he's able to pretend that he kept some kind of promise and now we've got a great deal, Whereas the old NAFTA was the worse deal in the history of deals, the one that he's got, which is virtually identical, is the best deal in the history of deals.
No Deal
I thought maybe he would do something similar to that with China. Come up with some ridiculous agreement that basically does nothing, then talk about how great it is… but apparently, not. Maybe they can still do that on Monday if they really want to wait to the last minute and come up with some kind of bogus deal… But people believe the rumors, but then this morning Larry Kudlow was on CNBC early in the morning before the open basically shooting that rumor down, saying there was no deal.

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Bulls Ain’t Afraid of No Bear Market – Ep. 407

Thu, 01 Nov 2018 00:29:00 +0000

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The Bulls Had No Fear
Today may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that the month of October is over. Despite the back to back rally, this is still the biggest decline in a month for NASDAQ since 2008.
The Market Gave Back Gains Before Close
In fact, the rally off of yesterday's lows, I think was better than 1100 points. We had this huge gain, and even though today, the Dow was up better than 200 points (241 points), it was up about 450 points going into the last hours. So we did give back a couple of hundred points of that gain, which, to me, looked pretty weak. The NASDAQ had a 2% higher close; it was up 144 points. But you look at the Russell 2000 - much smaller gain there. That index up just a third of 1%. The Dow transports, they were barely positive. Not even 2 tenths of 1 percent - a 15 point rise in the Dow Transports.
Bear Market Correction
Nonetheless, all the Bulls were out in force on the financial networks claiming that the correction is over. Everybody was confident that the lows are in; that this big back to back rally is proof that you'd better buy now, otherwise you're going to miss the rally, and this is a typical correction, and now it has run its course. You know what? If this really was the "end of the correction", most likely, there wouldn't be so many people so confident that it was over. You'd have a lot more fear, especially on a Halloween. The fact that there is no fear, to me, shows that it is more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market. And that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction, because the trend is still positive. In a bear market, it's the opposite: the rallies are the correction.

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