RedCircle VERIFY_TOKEN_3a460569-fbee-4fd5-a2a1-5165b56c6886 -- Rendered At Sat, 14 Nov 2026 02:54:42 +0000 Firm Ground https://redcircle.com/shows/firm-ground en-US 115584 All rights reserved. Janis Berzins Firm Ground is about resilience under hybrid pressure. War no longer arrives only as war. It arrives as a warehouse fire, a rumour that spreads before lunch, a complaint to a regulator, a cable damaged on the seabed. Most of these have innocent explanations. Some do not. And a company caught up in them may be the target, the channel through which pressure reaches a whole society, or simply collateral damage. It usually cannot tell which. It has to decide anyway. Firm Ground is about that pressure and what it does. How adversaries think about conflict below the threshold of war. How information and perception become weapons. How companies, institutions and societies hold together under it, and what it takes to decide when nobody will tell you it is safe. Some episodes are practical. Some are analysis. Every one of them ends with what it means for you. Jānis Bērziņš introduced the concept of new generation warfare to Western audiences and has studied Russian hybrid and cognitive warfare for more than a decade. He designs and runs crisis simulations and wargames on how governments and companies respond under pressure. 3a460569-fbee-4fd5-a2a1-5165b56c6886 Firm Ground is about resilience under hybrid pressure.

War no longer arrives only as war. It arrives as a warehouse fire, a rumour that spreads before lunch, a complaint to a regulator, a cable damaged on the seabed. Most of these have innocent explanations. Some do not. And a company caught up in them may be the target, the channel through which pressure reaches a whole society, or simply collateral damage. It usually cannot tell which. It has to decide anyway.

Firm Ground is about that pressure and what it does. How adversaries think about conflict below the threshold of war. How information and perception become weapons. How companies, institutions and societies hold together under it, and what it takes to decide when nobody will tell you it is safe. Some episodes are practical. Some are analysis. Every one of them ends with what it means for you.

Jānis Bērziņš introduced the concept of new generation warfare to Western audiences and has studied Russian hybrid and cognitive warfare for more than a decade. He designs and runs crisis simulations and wargames on how governments and companies respond under pressure.

]]> 115584 episodic no Janis Berzins firmground@luxsit.eu false full The Resumption Test The Resumption Test 4 1 Janis Berzins A company has been down for thirty-six hours. The incident is over, nobody knows who was behind it, and the ministry isn’t answering. Does it restart, and who decides?

In a hybrid campaign the all-clear may never come, because the threat doesn’t end and because the state gives its information, protection and priority to the military first. A crisis simulation at MIT in 2025 showed companies stopping operations not because anyone told them to, but because stopping was the only decision they could take alone. This episode sets out a five-question test for whether an organisation can restart under threat, and runs it on a real case: how Finnair, Estonia’s air navigation service and the city of Tartu got flights back in five weeks while the GPS jamming continued. With the four parts of a resumption decision, and what to listen for the next time a company says it will be back “once it’s safe”.

Sources: Lin-Greenberg, Harris and Cebul, “Corporations in the Crosshairs”, Simulation & Gaming, 2026; Finnair statements of 29 April and 16 May 2024; Estonian Air Navigation Services, 16 May and 1 June 2024; Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 8 May 2024.

Music: Edvard Grieg, Holberg Suite, Op. 40, Prelude. Performed by the Metropolitan Chamber Orchestra, conducted by Sarah-Grace Williams. Licensed under CC BY 4.0, via IMSLP. Excerpt.

]]> <p>A company has been down for thirty-six hours. The incident is over, nobody knows who was behind it, and the ministry isn’t answering. Does it restart, and who decides?</p><p>In a hybrid campaign the all-clear may never come, because the threat doesn’t end and because the state gives its information, protection and priority to the military first. A crisis simulation at MIT in 2025 showed companies stopping operations not because anyone told them to, but because stopping was the only decision they could take alone. This episode sets out a five-question test for whether an organisation can restart under threat, and runs it on a real case: how Finnair, Estonia’s air navigation service and the city of Tartu got flights back in five weeks while the GPS jamming continued. With the four parts of a resumption decision, and what to listen for the next time a company says it will be back “once it’s safe”.</p><p>Sources: Lin-Greenberg, Harris and Cebul, “Corporations in the Crosshairs”, Simulation &amp; Gaming, 2026; Finnair statements of 29 April and 16 May 2024; Estonian Air Navigation Services, 16 May and 1 June 2024; Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 8 May 2024.</p><p>Music: Edvard Grieg, Holberg Suite, Op. 40, Prelude. Performed by the Metropolitan Chamber Orchestra, conducted by Sarah-Grace Williams. Licensed under CC BY 4.0, via IMSLP. Excerpt.</p> 0b685f90-6fec-4030-a855-7782cbf9030c https://redcircle.com/shows/3a460569-fbee-4fd5-a2a1-5165b56c6886/episodes/77f502e9-f452-4c17-928c-8eb0a0d4e98d Tue, 03 Nov 2026 17:19:40 +0000 872 false full Your Company is the Terrain Your Company is the Terrain 3 1 Janis Berzins A fire, a false rumour, a complaint to a regulator and a late shipment, all in one day. Bad luck, a campaign aimed at you, or collateral damage from one aimed at someone else? Why hybrid pressure arrives through companies, the four decisions it tries to induce, and how Finnair’s suspension of its Tartu route in 2024 shows the pattern. With three questions to put to your board.




Music: Edvard Grieg, Holberg Suite, Op. 40, Prelude. Performed by the Metropolitan Chamber Orchestra, conducted by Sarah-Grace Williams. Licensed under CC BY 4.0, via IMSLP. Excerpt.

]]> <p>A fire, a false rumour, a complaint to a regulator and a late shipment, all in one day. Bad luck, a campaign aimed at you, or collateral damage from one aimed at someone else? Why hybrid pressure arrives through companies, the four decisions it tries to induce, and how Finnair’s suspension of its Tartu route in 2024 shows the pattern. With three questions to put to your board.</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p>Music: Edvard Grieg, Holberg Suite, Op. 40, Prelude. Performed by the Metropolitan Chamber Orchestra, conducted by Sarah-Grace Williams. Licensed under CC BY 4.0, via IMSLP. Excerpt.</p> 20ccad93-c8d8-4f37-ac6f-1e3c1fc97b13 https://redcircle.com/shows/3a460569-fbee-4fd5-a2a1-5165b56c6886/episodes/ebaff7ac-822d-4466-b308-3719fa839182 Tue, 20 Oct 2026 22:39:34 +0000 1056 false full Putin Negotiation Playbook for Executives: the Ethical 10-Point Strategy Putin Negotiation Playbook for Executives: the Ethical 10-Point Strategy 2 1 Janis Berzins Putin’s negotiation playbook has fooled presidents and other high level leaders. Now learn how to use the same negotiation methods developed by the KGB ethically in the corporate world. In this episode, you'll go through ten battlefield-tested tactics, including maximum anchors, strategic ambiguity, endurance timelines, coalition fragmentation, mirage concessions, and learn how to adapt the Putin negotiation playbook responsibly and ethically without crossing legal or moral lines.

Key takeaways

- Recognize manipulative patterns before they erode value

- Defend valuation, timelines, and intent without burning trust

- Apply pressure psychology transparently and within the law

- Build a negotiation muscle that compounds shareholder value

]]> <p>Putin’s negotiation playbook has fooled presidents and other high level leaders. Now learn how to use the same negotiation methods developed by the KGB ethically in the corporate world. In this episode, you&#39;ll go through ten battlefield-tested tactics, including maximum anchors, strategic ambiguity, endurance timelines, coalition fragmentation, mirage concessions, and learn how to adapt the Putin negotiation playbook responsibly and ethically without crossing legal or moral lines.</p><p>Key takeaways</p><p>- Recognize manipulative patterns before they erode value</p><p>- Defend valuation, timelines, and intent without burning trust</p><p>- Apply pressure psychology transparently and within the law</p><p>- Build a negotiation muscle that compounds shareholder value</p> e0f7e655-3bf3-4591-8680-0f423bd7394c https://redcircle.com/shows/3a460569-fbee-4fd5-a2a1-5165b56c6886/episodes/a15dfc61-4bb7-48f1-88f1-185e5f253cfb Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:08:59 +0000 1162 false full Putin’s Secret 10-Point Manual: How Russia Is Playing the West (and You) Putin’s Secret 10-Point Manual: How Russia Is Playing the West (and You) 1 1 Janis Berzins Are Russia’s peace negotiations what they seem? Recorded in August 2025, this episode sets out what I call Russia’s negotiation theatre: a ten-point pattern, used across many earlier conflicts, for managing Western leaders, buying time and rebuilding military strength while the talks go on.

While attention was on the peace talks, Russia was expanding drone production with Chinese help. The episode goes through the figures as they stood that summer: Shahed output at the Alabuga plant, the planned drone regiments and personnel, and what that timeline says about Russia’s intentions. It also looks at the other side of the ledger, the weaknesses in Russia’s economy, demographics and agriculture, including a poor grain harvest, and at the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska as a case of the pattern in action.

What you’ll hear

  • The ten-point pattern, step by step
  • How negotiation and military build-up run in parallel
  • Strategic ambiguity as Russia’s primary instrument
  • China’s role in Russia’s rearmament
  • Where Russia is vulnerable

The figures in this episode are as of August 2025.

]]> <p>Are Russia’s peace negotiations what they seem? Recorded in August 2025, this episode sets out what I call Russia’s negotiation theatre: a ten-point pattern, used across many earlier conflicts, for managing Western leaders, buying time and rebuilding military strength while the talks go on.</p><p>While attention was on the peace talks, Russia was expanding drone production with Chinese help. The episode goes through the figures as they stood that summer: Shahed output at the Alabuga plant, the planned drone regiments and personnel, and what that timeline says about Russia’s intentions. It also looks at the other side of the ledger, the weaknesses in Russia’s economy, demographics and agriculture, including a poor grain harvest, and at the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska as a case of the pattern in action.</p><p>What you’ll hear</p><ul><li>The ten-point pattern, step by step</li><li>How negotiation and military build-up run in parallel</li><li>Strategic ambiguity as Russia’s primary instrument</li><li>China’s role in Russia’s rearmament</li><li>Where Russia is vulnerable</li><li><br></li></ul><p>The figures in this episode are as of August 2025.</p> 77730c17-e7a5-47d8-a07e-d5ac02734ada https://redcircle.com/shows/3a460569-fbee-4fd5-a2a1-5165b56c6886/episodes/bea0159d-15a0-4bfc-9847-c838e1211b18 Wed, 27 Aug 2025 09:11:47 +0000 584 false