Bill is joined by FDD senior fellow Miad Maleki — former U.S. Treasury sanctions architect — to break down why Tehran walked away from talks, what the Strait of Hormuz blockade is really doing, and why the regime may be under more pressure than at any point since 1979.

Ahmad Sharawi and Bridget Toomey are back with Bill to assess Iran’s expanding proxy war — and the growing risk that America is funding forces now targeting its own troops.

Bill is joined by Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan to discuss why seizing Kharg could hand Tehran exactly what it wants: a wider war, a vulnerable U.S. position, and a fight on the regime’s terms.

Ships are still moving. Oil is still flowing.

Just not for everyone. Friends pass. Also anyone with millions of dollars to spare.

Enemies don’t.

This isn’t a blockade. It's a shakedown.

Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.

As Washington and Jerusalem pummel toward a mission accomplished, Bill is joined by FDD's Jon Schanzer to grapple with a harder question that looms: what happens if there’s no uprising when the bombing stops?

Bill Roggio, Joe Truzman, and David Daoud break down Tehran’s expanding battlefield from internal strain to external escalation and the question at the center of it all: Is this strength or a regime under stress trying to change the game before it loses control?

Mentioned by Bill

We didn't light it, but we tried to fight it.

Day 14 of the Iran War

Don't want the regime to have nukes? Eliminate the regime.

Across the region from tourist hubs and capital cities to energy infrastructure and U.S. military bases, Iranian attacks are dragging the region into the war and raising the cost of conflict.

Ahmad Sharawi joins Bill to assess Tehran’s strategy and the threat it poses to Middle East stability — including a nightmare maritime scenario that no one is talking about.

FDD’s Bradley Bowman joins Bill to break down what the strikes have achieved — and the harder question that remains: is the goal to weaken the regime… or bring it down?

Bill and Janatan Sayeh assess this initial phase of the war, the gap between Washington and Jerusalem’s goals, and the decisive question still looming over Tehran: will the Iranian people finish the job?

But as Bill and Behnam explain, the truth is simpler: this war began in 1979 — with hostage-taking, terrorism, and a regime built on hostility toward the United States and its allies.

Now, after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader and a campaign to dismantle Tehran’s missile arsenal — and as Iran widens the war by firing at its neighbors and daring them to join — the question isn’t how the war started. It’s how it ends.

Is this a limited war to degrade the regime — or the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic?

In it, they pondered the question that Washington was wrestling with at the time: should the U.S. strike Iran, and what would happen if it did? From whether airpower alone can truly cripple Iran’s nuclear and missile programs to why regime change may be impossible without an actual armed resistance.

They also pivoted to Gaza and the new “Board of Peace” plan — billions of dollars, a multinational force, and the question looming over it all: can it stabilize Gaza, or will Hamas sabotage it from the start?

Bill Roggio is joined by FDD military analyst Cameron McMillan to assess the objectives of the campaign, the forces now deployed across the region, and why destroying Iran’s weapons before they launch them may be the only way to protect American forces.

If true, is regime decapitation the opening salvo of the fall of the Islamic Republic?

What happens next?

David Daoud and Joe Truzman are back with Bill to unpack what we know, what we don’t know, and whether this is the moment that reshapes the Middle East.

Indeed, the stakes are generational, and the next few weeks could define the next few decades.

President Trump now has three options: negotiate, strike, or wait.

Is this the moment to help finish what the 12-Day War started? Or would U.S. intervention only prolong the Long War?

Can this regime fall without a true revolution — and how much blood would that require?

Bill Roggio and Behnam Ben Taleblu convene for a hard debate over whether Washington should help precipitate Tehran’s collapse — or stay out of it.

Bill Roggio is joined by his FDD colleague Edmund Fitton-Brown — who previously oversaw the UN’s sanctions and monitoring team that produces these assessments — to unpack what the report gets right, what it misses, and why al-Qaeda — not ISIS — remains the most dangerous long-term jihadist threat facing the West.

With the internet shut down, foreign militias unleashed on civilians, and reports of more than 30,000 dead, Tehran is waging a war on its own people.

FDD's Janatan Sayeh joins Bill to share what he’s hearing directly from inside Iran, why this is no longer “just protests,” and what it will take to finally break the Islamic Republic’s grip on power.

With the internet shut down and security forces unleashed, thousands — possibly tens of thousands — of Iranians have been massacred in an unprecedented and brutal crackdown.

Behnam Ben Taleblu joins Bill to unpack what this revolution means, why defections — not protests — are the real tipping point, and why the West’s failure to act may leave permanent scars — on Iran, and on U.S. credibility.

The regime is facing a nationwide uprising unlike anything seen in decades with Iranians across class, age, and ideology back in the streets, and they’re no longer asking for reform. They’re demanding an end to the Islamic Republic itself. 

Meanwhile, President Trump warned that U.S. military action is on the table if the regime slaughters protesters. As we record, a brutal crackdown is underway with reports of hundreds of Iranians killed and tens of thousands arrested. Is this the moment?

Bill asks FDD CEO and Iran Breakdown host Mark Dubowitz.

Your top Iran protest resources:

— We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.

— Mark's podcast, The Iran Breakdown, is required listening. Start here with his interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.

— Follow FDD's Iran experts on X, including Mark, Behnam, Saeed, Janatan

The Iran protest resources you need:

• We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.
• Mark's podcast, The Iran Breakdown, is required listening. Start here with his interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
• Follow FDD's Iran experts on X, including Mark, Behnam, Saeed, Janatan

Editorial note: The 1997 film known as "Home Alone 3" is not a legitimate addition to the Home Alone franchise, making a riff on the title fair game.

Same war. Same mistake. Same tragic — and avoidable — consequences.

In a solo rant, Bill Roggio dismantles the official story behind Operation Hawkeye, exposes the jihadist reality of Syria’s “security forces,” and ponders why the U.S. is (again) covering for al Qaeda–linked entities and calling it counterterrorism.

Bill Roggio and Edmund Fitton-Brown break down why outsourcing counterterrorism to jihadists is a fatal mistake — and why the so-called "peace of the Taliban" comes at an unbearable price: the erasure of half the country’s population and the return of Afghanistan as a global terror hub.

Bill is joined by FDD’s Edmund Fitton-Brown, who explains why this first round of designations is just the opening salvo — and how pulling this initial thread could eventually unravel the Brotherhood’s sprawling global network from Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon to Turkey, Qatar, and beyond.

Bill is joined by FDD’s David Daoud and Joe Truzman to unpack who Tabataba’i was, why the Israelis chose to strike now and what it means for Hezbollah’s failed regeneration, Beirut politics, and Israel’s next moves. 

Bill is joined by his FDD colleagues Samuel Ben-Ur and Aaron Goren to discuss why disarming Hamas is a fantasy, why an international force risks becoming UNIFIL 2.0, and why Israel may be forced to finish the war.

The Taliban, a monster Islamabad built but can’t control, is waging a war against Pakistan — and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. 

After decades of Islamabad playing both arsonist and firefighter — nurturing the Taliban, harboring al Qaeda, and weaponizing jihad against India — Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn reunite to dissect why the blaze is finally backfiring on Pakistan. 

He’s in New York City this week, headlining the UN General Assembly (UNGA), fraternizing with world leaders and meeting with senior Trump administration officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He was even hosted by a prominent think-tank for a fireside chat with General David Petraeus, a self-described “fan.” 

Why is everyone so eager to embrace someone with a record of terror? 

Tom Joscelyn is back with Bill to unpack Washington’s stunning, but not surprising, amnesia.

Bill is joined again by Brad Bowman and Bridget Toomey to break down what this means for Israel’s fight against Iran’s Axis of Resistance, why targeting leaders (“the archers”) matters more than just shooting down missiles, and how the Red Sea conflict ties into a bigger global struggle with Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea.

Bill asks his FDD colleague and military expert Bradley Bowman to set the record straight on what it really takes for the US to defeat its enemies in the long war — and why deterring China, Russia, and Iran simultaneously is essential for American national security.

From munitions math and Pentagon priorities to strained stockpiles, weapons we’re sending, and weapons we’re not making fast enough, Brad covers the bases to illustrate why helping our democratic partners do damage to our enemies now is an investment in saving American lives later.

They also briefly catch up on the current state of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and the still-burning dumpster fire in Lebanon.

• The recent Alawite insurgency against the government led by Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani,
• The role of jihadist groups and involvement of the Syrian National Army and Syrian Democratic Forces,
• Israel's position on minority protection in Syria, and
• The feasibility of military action in the region.

To unpack (/eviscerate) the piece, Bill and Will Selber are joined by — drumroll, please — Long War Journal- and Generation Jihad-OG, Tom Joscelyn. They read it so you don’t have to. 

Why did Jerry resign? The answer requires revisiting how events leading up to the fall of Kabul and withdrawal from Afghanistan unfolded and played out — and the ever-expanding black hole of accountability.

Bill and Joe unpack the strike and discuss a lesser-known terror group inside Gaza (is it the ‘Popular Resistance Committee’ or ‘The Committee for Popular Resistance’?), and the issue of battlefield longevity with which Israel seems to be grappling.

To learn about three groups that have emerged at the forefront Bill is joined by Will Selber, retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer with multiple deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

They discuss who’s who in the resistance, which groups could be effective enough to take the fight to the Taliban (and which should sit it out), the work ahead and what they need for success — including unification. 

Given the Islamic Republic’s constitutional mandate that elections be held to replace Raisi, who might be the next president? What does the president even do? What will it mean for Iran’s foreign and security policy

They also revisit Raisi’s history in the regime or as Behnam calls it, “failing up.” From being the youngest hand-picked by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to head the infamous “death commission” and implement fatwas issued by the then-Supreme Leader to his days as a hanging judge and heading the judiciary, the “Butcher of Tehran” had a lot of blood on his hands.

Edmund previously served as the United Kingdom's Ambassador to Yemen, a role which required him to negotiate and spend a significant amount of time in close quarters with Houthi leaders. He details some of his interactions with them and how the experience shapes his understanding of the region today.

Many items of interest came up during the marathon meeting, including Long War Journal. If you know, you know.

Bill poured over transcripts of the nearly ten hours-long interview, and he had help from none other than LWJ OG Tom Joscelyn.

Bill and Tom discuss the highlights.

Bill is back and leaning on co-host Joe Truzman to help him piece together the events of last week. He doesn’t want it to be “a what-the-hell-happened episode,” so we won’t call it that.

They revisit Iran’s historic strike on Israel and Israel’s retaliatory strike in Isfahan, Iran — including what targets they hit, what message they wanted to send by hitting them, and whether this was the right move. They contemplate whether Israel’s relatively tempered response is indicative of U.S. restraint and if Israel will continue to go after IRGC-QF targets.

They also discuss reports of an attack on an Iranian-backed militia outside of Baghdad as well as allegations of Hezbollah Brigade forces launching an attack on U.S. forces in Syria.

They also discuss President Biden's statement that Israel operating inside Rafah would be "a red line," how Ramadan has started with no ceasefire in sight, and details surrounding a high-value target that Israel has gone after.

They discuss the IDF's operation along Gaza's border with Egypt in Rafah, which last night included the rescuing of two hostages; how Hamas fighters are resurfacing in Khan Younis; and the uncomfortably palpable uptick in international pressure on Israel as it continues its defensive war, most notably from the U.S.

They also start to unpack some of this UNRWA baggage, like the newly-discovered Hamas operations hub found beneath an UNRWA school (to ironically quote DJ Khaled: "another one"); the UNRWA chief's subsequent statement about "alleged tunnels" (which Bill points out is interesting, given that something either is or is not a tunnel); new consequences for the UN organization still reeling from funding cuts after it was revealed that several of its employees participated in the October 7 attack on Israel; and whether (and how) Israel might continue to work with UNRWA to facilitate the transfer of aid into Gaza.

Bill's OG partner in crime is back on the show to discuss the newest variant of Disconnect-the-Dots Disease and its primary benefactor — who also happens to be the arsonist behind the dumpster fire currently engulfing the Middle East — and the dangerous cost of American ambivalence. 

They unpack the report’s highlights and key takeaways, including uncertainty surrounding the new IS leader and why the reason behind it could be “earth-shattering;” West Africa’s slide into even deeper chaos; how only one ‘member state’ (🤔) denied that al Qaeda’s leader is inside Iran, the state which Edmund says is “the spider at the center of the web;” and more.

Housekeeping note: This was (naturally) recorded just hours before the U.S. announced that retaliatory strikes are in fact underway in Iraq and Syria on Friday, February 2.

Keeping this in mind while listening, all points are still relevant. 

Stay tuned for LWJ and CMPP coverage and analysis of the strikes — and for real-time hot takes, follow @billroggio and @Brad_L_Bowman on X.

They discuss the latest Israeli strikes against Iranian assets in Lebanon, the status of fighting in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, the pervasiveness of the IRGC in Lebanon, why Iran's master proxy strategy is so successful — and why it's so difficult for Washington to understand.

Accurate preview courtesy of Behnam: “We like to say ‘freaky Fridays’ here [we do not] — it can’t get freakier than the first-ever, historic use of force since October 7 by the U.S. and UK against the Houthis.”

Included in Joe’s haunting description of a scene “almost untouched since October 7” and frozen in time: “There’s still blood on the ground. There’s still blood on the walls. There’s glass everywhere. You can still smell burnt wood; a lot of these homes were burned with people still inside of them. There is still the smell of death.” His visit was also marked by the constant hum of heavy artillery and gunfire, apache helicopters, and the incessant buzzing of drones (AKA “the lawnmower of the sky”). 

Also discussed: being on sustained high-alert for shelling from rockets, mortars, and drones; spending time at Israel’s northern border with Lebanon to observe Israel’s management of the Hezbollah threat; takeaways from conversations with Israelis — from cab drivers to government officials — about the resolve of Israelis and the still-standing solidarity between them, whether or not they share the Biden administration’s insatiable appetite for a ceasefire, and why one Israeli official told him that on October 7, “Israel shrunk.”

Bill thinks he's seen this movie before. It's the one where they ignore the core of the issue.

They discuss the politics of diplomacy and analyze recent trips and statements made by key players like Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and President Biden himself — and whether U.S. support for Israel is at a crossroads, and what message this could send to U.S. partners and allies (and enemies) around the world; an apparent U.S. intelligence leak estimating that 45% of Israeli munition used in Gaza has not been precision-guided; and more.

About the guests

Stu, Zach, and Kyle met in 2016 while working in the Kandahar Intelligence Fusion Cell (KIFC) at TAAC-S. Stu was the Uruzgan Provincial Analyst, Zach the Kandahar Provincial Analyst, and Kyle the Political-Military (Green and White) Analyst. They created The Boardwalk Podcast in May 2021. Support their show here — and check out their recent episode with Bill here.

Stu Velasco

Stu joined the Army as an All Source Intelligence Analyst in 2011 and upon completion of Airborne school was assigned to 1^st BN, 3^rd SFG at Fort Bragg (now Fort Liberty), North Carolina. Stu deployed to Afghanistan 3 times, supporting SOTF-E, SOTF-NE, and SOTF-A operations in Afghanistan. After leaving the Army in 2016, returned to Afghanistan as a contractor, providing intelligence support to conventional operations at Kandahar Airfield and FOB Lightning in Paktiya. He switched contracts in late 2017 to a Forward Supporting Engineer role providing training and upkeep with intelligence systems (mainly Palantir) with Special Forces, Rangers, and conventional forces throughout Afghanistan until March 2020.

Zach Popp

Zach joined the Army as an All Source Intelligence Analyst in 2008 and was assigned to XVIII Airborne Corps at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Zach deployed to Camp Victory, Baghdad, Iraq with XVIII Airborne Corps in 2010 in support of Operation New Dawn. Upon redeployment, he was assigned to I Corps at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington. Zach left the Army in 2015 and went to Afghanistan in 2016 as a contractor, providing intelligence support to Train, Advise, Assist Command-South and TF Warhawk at Kandahar Airfield. 

They debunk the latest example of President Biden's insistence that al Qaeda no longer has a presence in Afghanistan and discuss how U.S. rejection of intelligence is neither new nor at odds with its dangerous habit of disconnecting dots pertaining not least of all to al Qaeda.

They're also joined again by FDD Senior Fellow and Iran expert Behnam Ben Taleblu to unpack the latest regional aggression covered with Tehran's fingerprints, including more missiles fired at U.S. and Israeli assets in the region (and why one incident last week was actually a "game-changer") as well as the latest string of maritime hijackings off the coast of Yemen.

The war goes on; rockets are still raining down on central Israel (including Jerusalem) while Israel continues targeting Hamas leaders in Gaza. But...

Breaking today and over the weekend:

• Israeli boots are now on the ground inside Gaza. There was also some IDF activity in Jenin inside the West Bank.
• Iran's President Raisi said in a statement that "the Zionist regime's crimes have crossed the red lines which may force everyone to take action."
• While Lebanese Hezbollah is still keeping things at a simmer just below the threshold of all-out war, other Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria are very much in the game. Some are even firing at U.S. forces in the region.

Bill, Joe, and Behnam unpack these and related news.

And to complicate the already complicated: an incident yesterday on the Red Sea marked the first active engagement by the U.S. in this ongoing war, when the USS Carney shot down missiles fired by Iran-backed Houthis.

So for today's briefing, Bill and Joe called in their FDD colleague and top expert on Iran, Behnam Ben Taleblu. 

(Episode material up to date as of late morning/early afternoon ET on Wednesday, October 18.)

Hosts Bill and Caleb ultimately narrowed it down to two options: Somalia or Mali.

Shabaab in Somalia has aptly been dubbed "The Taliban of Africa," given how well-organized, well-armed and effective it is there as a jihadist group.

But Mali is actually the weaker state. To boot:

— The UN has undertaken an unprecedented withdrawal of its peacekeeping forces and will no longer have a presence in Mali by the end of this year;

— France, which was a major counterterrorism partner, has already completely withdrawn its troops from Mali;

— There is currently an Islamic Statelet in northern Mali, where the Islamic State controls the majority of an entire province;

— Al Qaeda controls huge swaths of territory in both northern and central Mali, and it increasingly threatens Bamako as it slowly encroaches on the capital;

— And also in the ring: Russia's Wagner Group.

Despite all of these excellent targets, the country's ruling military junta in Bamako is threatening open conflict with rebels in the north — a situation that could easily erupt into war.

Bill and Caleb agree: It's Mali on the brink.

They discuss Bridgeway's June 2023 report co-authored by Caleb, Ryan, and Tara and published with George Washington University's Program on Extremism: Fatal Transaction: The Funding Behind the Islamic State's Central Africa Province.

James is a Lagos-based research fellow at the Hudson Institute.

Read the UN Report here.

Edmund's former team at the U.N. just released its latest report on Afghanistan which details (among other troubling issues) just how embedded al Qaeda is in Afghanistan's Taliban government.

Bill and Edmund dissect the report's findings.

Jonathan Schanzer is the Senior Vice President for Research at FDD, where Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow. Both are Turkey experts. (One has taken a harder hit from pro-government Turks on Twitter than the other.)

From President Erdogan's thinly-veiled political opportunism — like his 180 on Syria; his regional charm offensive, particularly with Israel; and his role as a U.S. "counterterrorism partner" — and his blatant corruption — like his mismanagement of earthquake aid and his allowing Turkey to be a terrorist superhighway — to an opposition candidate's eleventh hour dropout, this is your starter pack for understanding what's about to unfold in Turkey.

Want to know more? Here's what to read:

U.S. Demands More Sanctions Enforcement From Turkey

U.S. and Turkey Take Joint Action to Disrupt ISIS Financing

No US-Turkey Rapprochement Is Possible Under Erdogan

Turkey Wants a Post-election Reset with Washington

Will Erdogan Embrace The West?

U.S. Sanctions Turkish Entities for Aiding Russian War Effort

Biden Must Tell Erdogan To Stop Targeting US Partners

Turkey Supports Hamas, Which Means an Alliance With Israel Isn’t Going To Happen

Turkey’s Erdogan must take concrete action on Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Hamas Operatives in Turkey Recruit Palestinians for Terror Attacks

Turkey’s Earthquake: The Buck Stops with Erdogan

Turkey’s Crimes Against Humanity Under ICC Spotlight

Erdogan faces growing backlash over earthquake mismanagement

Erdogan Threatens to Discard Election Results

In Support of a Democratic Turkey

Turkey After Erdogan

Mentioned in the episode:

Jon's book: Gaza Conflict 2021: Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War

Want to know more? Here's what to read:

Ceasefire in Effect Following More Than Two Days of Fighting in Gaza

Operation “Breaking Dawn” in Gaza Enters its Second Day

IDF Targeted Operation Eliminates Palestinian Islamic Jihad Commander

Assessing Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Military Capabilities After the August 2022 Conflict

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is an Iran-Supported Terror Organization

Disrupting Palestinian Islamic Jihad a smart play by Israel

That the leader of Al Qaeda was killed in Kabul "comprehensively disproves" Taliban claims that Al Qaeda has no presence inside of Afghanistan. On the contrary, it proves that the group's top leadership uses the country as a safe haven.

They talk about what's next for Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and for its affiliates around the world as well as Zawahiri's possible successor.

Mentioned in the episode: read Bill's latest analysis in DailyMail here.

Mentioned in the show:

U.S.-Taliban withdrawal deal

2019 article from Politico: Trump’s Bad Deal with the Taliban

No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal

Analysis: U.S. confirms senior al Qaeda leader killed in Afghan raid

U.S. military buries press release that would announce killing of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent’s emir